Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 TOUR Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 TOUR Championship

2025 TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview

Holding a 54-hole lead over Scottie Scheffler must feel like being hunted by a lion in the Serengeti… even worse when he’s your playing partner, and you can see his magnificence at close range.Owings Mills in Maryland is a long way from Tanzania, but the vibe was the same as Robert MacIntyre bore an uncanny resemblance to a startled wildebeest at the BMW Championship on Sunday.

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The Scot led by five at the halfway stage of the tournament, and by four after 54 holes, but that lead had been eviscerated within five holes – MacIntyre, having found just one fairway and two greens in regulation, starting out +3, as Scheffler pounced with -1 through that same stretch.

There was an air of inevitability thereafter, as despite two bogeys on the back nine, Scheffler was able to hold off MacIntyre and the rest to wrap up his fifth PGA TOUR win of the season – the first time in 20 years that anybody has been able to win five times or more in consecutive campaigns.

And so, after eight months of action, the field of 30 is set for the season’s curtain call at the TOUR Championship. Can anybody stop Scottie from gobbling up another trophy?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Unfortunately without Scheffler, there was simply no way for us to cash in last week.

We took a gamble building out a deeper roster but we’re not going to make that mistake heading into East Lake. Of course Scottie will be our top pick, the key here is who else to pick around him.

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The 2025 TOUR Championship Field

As you may already know, the PGA TOUR has done away with the starting strokes format for the TOUR Championship, so all 30 players will start at even par as normal. That creates the possibility that a Jacob Bridgeman or a Sungjae Im, no disrespect intended, could be crowned as the season’s champion golfer – which seems preposterous, truth be told.

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That duo has somehow grinded their way into this field of 30, which will be headlined by Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.

Late season form has earned the likes of Cameron Young, Chris Gotterup, and Harry Hall a place in the field, while Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, and Hideki Matsuyama are also in the hunt despite disappointing campaigns by their own high standards.

This Week’s Course Preview

More than a century ago, Donald Ross headed to Atlanta, Georgia to take a look at the East Lake Golf Club. He was assigned to do a remodelling job, which took months and months of hard labor. But it was worth it: East Lake still provides a stern tee-to-green test to this day, more than 110 years later.

Other changes have been made in the intervening period, but the dimensions – 7,346 yards for a Par of 70 – remain mostly untouched. This is a long old stretch then, with six Par 4s that are 450 yards or longer – which includes the very first hole, a 510-yard behemoth which played as the toughest hole at East Lake at last year’s TOUR Championship.

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It should be noted that there’s three Par 5s within that Par 70 routing, although some tight fairways promote the need for long, straight hitting, as opposed to outright bombs off the tee.

There’s plenty of trees and sand around too, while the Bermuda green complexes are small in stature and well protected by contours, false fronts, and some harsh run-off zones.  But in truth, East Lake isn’t overly challenging for the top pros in benign conditions, with scores of late teens under par, or even -20, likely if the wind doesn’t blow.

A long old season will culminate in the eighteenth hole at East Lake, a 550-yard Par 5 at which course officials are almost daring the field to take on the green in two. Birdie is almost a given, but could it take an eagle there to win the TOUR Championship on Sunday?

Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA

ATLANTA WEATHER

It looks like it could be another one of those ‘watch out for the forecast’ style weeks in Atlanta, Georgia. Scattered thunderstorms are in the predictions for Tuesday, although the feeling is that it won’t rain enough to have much of an impact on East Lake, if any.

Thursday looks set to be a decent start to the week, with sunny spells and temperatures touching 89 degrees. Friday and Saturday are where things could get interesting. Friday’s forecast is calling for ‘heavy thunderstorms’, which suggests lots of rain and possibly even lightning delays. Saturday is also suggestive of rain.

At least our champion should be crowned in better conditions on Sunday, with sunshine again expected and temperatures of around 82 degrees. 

Last Years Results

The old starting strokes format of the TOUR Championship meant that Scottie Scheffler went into the event with a two-shot headstart over Xander Schauffele and at least three over the rest of the field… surely he wouldn’t be caught!? The answer was a resounding no. Scheffler opened with a round of 65 to lead by seven after 18 holes, and while that cushion was trimmed to four at the halfway stage, the world number one would not be denied.

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He shot 66 on Saturday to lead by five with a round to play, and in the end Scheffler won by four from Collin Morikawa in second place. As far as pure strokeplay scoring is concerned, Scheffler technically finished third: Morikawa was the player of the week with a total of 262, with Sahith Theegala one behind him.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s the 2025 TOUR Championship

With just 30 players in the field, it’s difficult to leverage too much of an advantage with smart picks this week. It is, however, possible to land a catalogue of prizes by running a couple of different lineup variations.

• GOLF TOUR $300k Drive the Green: It’s $5 a turn here, so you can affordably drop in a couple of roster variations, and hope to take down a handful of payouts – particularly as lineup dupes are likely, so an accumulative approach may be best.

• GOLF TOUR $10 10-Player Winner Takes All: Although we wouldn’t normally advise these types of contest, with such a small field there’s scope in a ‘winner takes all’ game – everyone puts $10 in, the winner pockets $90 (with $10 rake).

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2025 TOUR Championship

Of the players in this week’s field that have played five or more times at East Lake, the best scoring averages belong to Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy. And that rather sets the scene for what is required: long, straight hitting off the tee, precise iron and wedge play, and holing some Bermuda putts.

East Lake is a second shot course, as that old cliché goes, but it certainly holds weight – last year, Scheffler, Morikawa, and Theegala ranked first, third, and second respectively for ball striking. This is a surprisingly straightforward venue in benign conditions, with a GIR percentage of around 70% or higher expected for most, so chipping and scrambling skills don’t get too sorely tested.

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There’s not much to worry about off the tee, and the Bermuda greens are as fast and as pure as you would expect, so it’s all about hitting those relentless approach shots close to the flag….and making some putts, of course. There’s not too much mystery or science to success at East Lake: quality ball-strikers tend to have the most fun at the seasonal finale.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2025 TOUR Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2025 TOUR Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 13/8, FPPG: 101.3, Salary: $13,900)

The nature of drafting a six-man lineup for a 30-player event is that you simply have to have the tournament winner in your roster – even picking a stack of guys that finish T5 or better won’t be enough.

So of course Scottie is in our crosshairs, and particularly so when we consider how much he loves East Lake. Yes, others have lower scoring averages here, but by our count Scheffler has fired more scores that are two shots or greater than the day’s scoring average since 2020 than anybody else – eight, to be precise, across 20 rounds.

He’s won five times in his last ten starts, from American parklands to the British Links, with his long-time caddie Ted Scott and with a replacement. 

What, or who, can stop Scheffler defending his FedEx Cup title?

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
• Birdie Average – 1st
• Putts Per Round – 5th

Top Tier Pick #2

Viktor Hovland (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 65.8, Salary: $9,400)

Nobody in this field plays East Lake better than Viktor Hovland… literally.

His scoring average of 67.40 is the best in the field, and what’s more that has come from five different trips – as opposed to just one solitary good week.

Of course, you need to be playing well to take advantage of such things, and the Norwegian should head to Georgia in confident mood. He’s gained a minimum of +0.95, averaged across four rounds, on approach in four of his last five starts – including a mammoth +2.12 at the BMW Championship last week.

Hovland has also made putting gains in each of his last four outings, so the basic pieces of the puzzle are in place for him this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 14th
• Birdie Average – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

J.J. Spaun (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 69.4, Salary: $8,100)

Since March, J.J. Spaun has won the U.S. Open and lost in playoffs at the PLAYERS Championship and St. Jude Championship. That five-window snapshot suggests that, right now, he’s one of the best golfers on the planet… Spaun’s position in the U.S. Ryder Cup team is well earned.

You suspect he’d like to frank that with a strong showing this week. This will be his debut at East Lake, but that didn’t bother him when taking a look at Oakmont for the first time at the U.S. Open this year. Accurate off the tee and elite with irons and wedges, Spaun can sign off on a strong season on a high. 

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 6th
• SG: Approach – 6th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Robert MacIntyre (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 70.9, Salary: $7,400)

You win or you learn. It will be interesting to see how Robert MacIntyre bounced back from disappointment at the BMW Championship, but the Scot doesn’t strike us as a shrinking violet – he’ll want to be back contending for trophies as soon as possible.

He’s an interesting fit for East Lake, particularly given how well he struck his irons and wedges at Caves Valley, and in his sole visit to the track he finished just two shots, in terms of strokeplay scoring, behind course specialist Xander Schauffele.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 17th
• SG: Approach – 32nd
• SG: Putting – 32nd

Low-Tier Pick

Harris English (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 68.0, Salary: $6,900)

What a season it’s been for Harris English, who would no doubt love to end it on a high with a strong showing at East Lake. A win at the Farmers Insurance Open has been followed by runners-up finishes at two majors, a Signature Event top-five, and T12 at The Masters – on the biggest stages, English has stood up to be tested.

What’s great is that in each of those excellent performances, he gained at least +1.00 stroke on the field per round on approach, which as mentioned is the cornerstone of success at East Lake. Not a frequent visitor to the TOUR Championship, such have been his inconsistencies over the years, the Georgia native will nonetheless relish the opportunity this week on home turf.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 11th
• Driving Accuracy – 65th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 67th

Sleeper Pick for the 2025 TOUR Championship

Shane Lowry (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 65.3, Salary: $6,400)

If you’re looking for a bargain basement selection for East Lake, having an elite iron and wedge player on side is probably a good place to start. Only seven players shot a lower strokeplay score than Shane Lowry at last year’s TOUR Championship, and that’s confirmation that this test of quality from tee-to-green is ideal for the Irishman.

Lowry isn’t quite playing his best golf right now, but the back-to-basics feel of East Lake – as well as the feeling that class is permanent, form is temporary – suggests that he can come up trumps for gamers seeking a cut-price sleeper pick.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 4th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 35th
• Driving Accuracy – 42nd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2025 TOUR Championship

Nick Taylor (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 65.8, Salary: $6,300)

With a Scottie draft comes a need to balance our lineup out at the bottom end. And while neither Jacob Bridgeman nor Sungjae Im hold much appeal, there’s upside to Nick Taylor.

His game has cooled off over these past few weeks, it’s true, but look at how well he played from the start of June to mid July – you’ve got Signature Event top fives (solo fourth at the Memorial), T22 on the Scottish Links, T23 at the U.S. Open… it’s not bad at all.

And consider Taylor’s sole visit to East Lake in 2023. He didn’t have a prayer of winning due to his lowly position in the starting stakes, but by Sunday had played his four rounds in 279 shots – the same as Scheffler and Jon Rahm. This is one $6,300 sleeper pick that could really pay off…

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 21st
• Driving Accuracy – 24th
• Total Birdies – 48th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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