Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 Valspar Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 Valspar Championship

This Week’s Tournament Preview

We’re entering the last two legs of the Florida swing before the TOUR makes a pit stop in Texas and then heads back east to Augusta.

With his third place finish at Doral, Bubba Watson made a strong move up the Official World Golf Rankings cutting in to Rory McIlroy’s first place lead, while event winner Dustin Johnson moved up from 16th to 7th.  It’s worth noting that either of these two will be in the field this week, however, World No. 3 ranked Henrik Stenson will be back in action and looking to regain the No.2 spot that he recently gave up to Watson.

Most of the notables we saw at Doral will be sitting this week out and rumor has it that some will already be heading up to Augusta for a few practice rounds.

Innisbrook is not an easy track and we should scoring that similar to last week’s WGC at Doral.

One interesting statistic to keep in mind is that in it’s entire history, this tournament has never produced a back-to-back champion.  In fact, just three of the 14 defending champs even found themselves in the Top 10 in the year following their victory.  It goes to show you that perhaps this week past performance will have little impact (if any) on our predictions this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

We ended our 3-week consecutive Dustin Johnson pick largely due to his blow up at PGA National, and keeping him off the roster came back to bite us a bit.  Our selections however still fared well in most salary cap leagues even with DJ sitting out and Jason Day coming in with an unexpectedly weak performance.

Palmer was our super cheap sleeper pick at just $7,000 and he managed to finished T12, earning some nice fantasy points.

With the fifteenth tournament on the wrap-around season in the books, we now carry an average weekly fantasy earnings of $878,391 that comes off a strong 16 89 cuts made of 105 players picked (that includes sleepers).

Our Tuesday Sleeper Report Picks also fared well this week with total earnings of $513,375 and an impressive sixth place finish by our 80/1 pick Louis Oostuizen. The Tuesday Sleeper Report report offers excellent “filler” picks, all of which come off 50/1 or higher odds to help Premium Members round out their salary cap teams.  This is crucial for standing apart and winning top prizes in any DraftKings, FantasyFeud, or VICTIV contest.

The Field

The top ranked player in the field this week will be World No.3 Henrik Stenson and playing alongside of him will also be World No. 5 ranked Adam Scott.  Stenson has never played Innisbrook and so this will be his first look at the dreaded Snake Pit.  Of course the defending champion John Senden will also be in the field this week along with Stenson, Scott, and two other Top 10 ranked players.

Luke Donald seems to have success here but again, past performance is no guarantee of future results on the Copperhead course.  Luke has four consecutive top-6 finishes on the Copperhead course, including his 2012 victory and a tied T4 here last year.

On another note, veteran Jim Furyk, has five straight top-20 finishes at Innisbrook including a win here in 2010 and a P2 finish to Donald in 2012.

Returning champ John Senden hasn’t made much noise on TOUR this season and we most likely will not be considering him in our picks this week.

On a side note, two other story-lines will play out this week as No. 1 ranked amateur Ollie Schniederjans (Georgia Tech senior) will earn a sponsor exemption for his first PGA TOUR event, and for all you Big Break fans, Jimmy Brandt, who won “Big Break: Myrtle Beach” will play out his prize by teeing it up thanks to Valspar’s invite.  These two guys may just be the lowest priced fantasy players this week (for a reason) and we certainly won’t be picking them, but it will be fun to watch their stories play out.

The Course

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) measures in at 7,340 yards and plays as a challenging par 71.  Copperhead is no picnic and the scores always reflect its difficulty.  Fairways are tight and lined with trees and sloping terrains.  Course designer Larry Packard added the element of rolling terrains to differentiate the course from other famed Florida “flat” courses like PGA National and Doral.

The Copperhead also consistently ranks high in difficulty for its unique layout of double dogleg par-5s, which really challenges players to get home in two.

The infamous Snake Pit consists of two extremely difficult par-4s that sandwich the 215-yard Par 3 17th.

Here are some professional tips from Innisbrook Head Pro Rodney Green on how to size up the 14^th hole before heading into the Snake Pit:

PGA Professional tips on playing Innisbrook

Rodney Green, Director of Golf at the Innisbrook Golf Resort, gives pointers on how to play the par-5 14th hole on the Copperhead Golf Course in this instructional from “Inside the PGA TOUR”. Check out more ‘Inside’ videos http://www.youtube.com/pgatour Subscribe to the PGA TOUR channel The four-time Emmy Award nominated “Inside the PGA TOUR” airs on Golf Channel at 6:30 p.m.

Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL

What should be an excellent week of beautiful Florida weather is in store for this year’s Valspar Championship.  Rounds 1-3 will see 80 degree temperatures with little to no rain.  Sunday we will see the temperatures drop slightly into the 70s but another dry day for the finish is in store.

The course should remain pretty dry leading up to the kickoff of Round 1 and no true danger of sloppy conditions is in the forecast this week.  The only factor will be wind, which we may see pick up during Rounds 2 and 3 if the forecasts are accurate.

2014 Results

Last year John Senden drained two birdies in the Snake Pit overtake Kevin Na by one stroke and put an end his seven-year winless drought on TOUR.  The veteran contributed to what was an amazing year for Australian winners and earned himself some premier tournament invites and exemptions because of it.

Senden made a crucial birdie chip-in on No. 16 which snapped a three-way tie for the lead and then followed it up with a long range birdie putt on the extremely difficult par-3 17th.

Kevin Na had a chance to force a playoff but pushed his drive into the first cut of rough on 18.  His subsequent approach shot flew the green which put the nail in the coffin for Na.  After that, it was all over as Senden grabbed a victory for the first time (anywhere) since 2006.

In case you missed it, here is a recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 Valspar Championship:

John Senden wins the Valspar Championship | Highlights

In the final round of the Valspar Championship, John Senden shot a 1-under 70 to earn his second career PGA TOUR victory. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR. Here you can find everything you need to stay up to date with the world’s foremost golf tour..

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 3:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 12:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

Where to Play this Week

We’re still gearing up for the DraftKings $2.2 million dollar prize pool event with $1 million coming to the 1st place finisher.  With that said, we love the Super Satellites this week for a low cost entry fee that also gives you an excellent shot to wins your way into the main event.

This week we particularly like the odds in the DraftKings PGA $2.2 Millionaire Maker Supersat [5X] event which is a $5 dollar buy in with only 23 players.  The Top 5 finishers out of 23 will win a ticket to the big event in April.  We like those chances, especially with the picks we’ve selected below.

You can check out even more places to play in our Where to Play Fantasy Golf – Our Top 5 Sites Countdown from earlier this week.

Good luck!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

There are a lot of high quality studs in the field this week and some names could be really tempting.  With that said, we’ll be uncovering those “tough course grinders” to help weed out some of the expensive picks that just end up with a disappointing missed cut.

Innisbrook is a really challenging track and with some heavy winds (which are called for on Friday) scoring could be as messy as it was at the Honda Classic.

Advice of the Week: Here’s a sneaky idea: try entering the DraftKings PGA $2.2 Millionaire Maker Supersat [50X] event which only costs $0.25 per entry.  Utilize our top picks and substitute in different high priced players with your same core mid-range and sleepers.  Eight entries will cost you only two bucks and then you’re in it to win it eight different chances potentially with eight different horses.  In salary cap fantasy golf, you normally don’t stand a chance unless you own the winner … and this method is a way to beat the system.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 Valspar Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 14/1): Stenson is the third highest priced player in salary cap this week.  He’s also third on the list of Vegas odds.  So why are we picking him in the number one slot?  When you create a team around salary, you have to be disciplined with the salary cap.  In this case, Stenson comes in with a hefty $12,100 price tag but he’s $1,100 cheaper than Adam Scott, and we feel he has the better chances.  Although it’s his first appearance at Innisbrook, we’re still confident he can get the job done.  Like we said in our preview, Innisbrook doesn’t produce a lot of repeat contenders—there’s only been a handful of solid follow-up performances in the track’s history.  Stenson played excellently at Doral last week where he finished T4 and looked money all week.  He also has Top 15s in his last three starts worldwide, and you can bet that he’ll want that World No. 2 spot back from the idle Watson this week.
• Luke Donald (Golficity Odds 18/1): Donald is one of very few players that has had consistent success here and all the major blogs and magazines have him on the top of their lists because of it.  At $9,900 it’s a no-brainer to stick him on your roster this week, especially since he’s coming in with a little confidence.  Donald won here in 2012 and get this, he’s never finished worse than T6 in his last four appearances!  He’ll be riding high on that T7 from PGA National two weeks ago, and go figure, he’s had continued success on that course as well.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 20/1): Spieth looks like he’s finally beginning to heat up.  Although he hasn’t notched any Top 10s recently, he comes in on the heels of a T17 at Doral where he led field in fewest putts (106) and ranked second in strokes gained putting.  He’s played this course well too—not as clutch as Donald, but he holds a T7 here in 2013 and a T20 last year.  His price tag is high this week, but you can squeeze him on a roster with the two names above and some really solid sleeper picks for a good showing.
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 24/1): This is our first crack at Furyk this season out of our 105 picks so far in 2014-2015.  We hesitated to run with him until now be we know what he has to offer on this course and his past successes leading up to the Texas Swing.  He’s finished within the Top 20 in each of his last five attempts at Innisbrook and that included a win in 2010 and a P2 to Donald in 2012.  We’ll take our chances on a guy with those numbers and who sits at fourth in all-time earnings here.  So far he’s off to a good start in 2015 and we see him getting hot right around now—especially with The Masters lurking right around the corner.
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 33/1): Snedeker is a solid pick this week with a reasonably $9,500 price tag.  He finished T17 at Doral where he ranked eighth in strokes gained putting.  With a win already this season and a history that includes two top 10s at Innisbrook, we simply can’t ignore the veteran this week for sure.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Martin Laird (Golficity Odds 50/1): Laird is a quiet sleeper that most fantasy owners will overlook this week.  He comes in ranked 5th in Birdie average and 12th in the All-Around ranking.  He also has five Top 18 finishes in seven events played this season including a T3, a T5, and a T7.  It’s worth noting that Laird only one missed cut on the season and consistently puts up solid Fantasy Points.  He’s a newbie at Innisbrook but that doesn’t concern us this week.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Sang-Moon Bae (Golficity Odds 55/1): Bae is ranked 5th in the FedExCup standings for a reason.  He lost in a playoff here in 2012 and added a T14 last year.  He also has two wins worldwide and another three top 10s since October.  At just $7,500 this week, you have a solid chance to own a player who has four Top 8 finishes this season including a win.  Look for Bae to be a silent killer here and earn your fantasy squad some solid points.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 15/1): T31 ($72,000)
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 18/1): T17 ($97,500)
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 22/1): T23 ($83,000)
• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 33/1): T23 ($83,000)
• Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 45/1): T38 ($65,500)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

• Jaime Donaldson (Golficity Odds 50/1): T44 ($61,500)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 66/1): T12 ($123,000)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 15 (105 picks – 7 per event).
• Total Fantasy Dollars for the Season: $13,175,876 ($878,391 weekly average).
• Total Top 10s: 28 out of 105 picks (26.67%).
• Total Top 3s: 14 out of 105 picks (13.33%).
• Runner-Up Finishes: 5 in 15 events (33.33%).
• Total Winners Picked: 2 in 15 events (13.33%).
• Total Missed Cuts: 16 out of 105 players picked (84.76% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for 2015 Valspar Championship with other Premium Members.

Want even more fantasy golf picks and predictions for this week’s Valspar Championship?  Check out this week’s Tuesday Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report for more fantasy golf sleepers, long shots, and undervalued players to add to your roster.

Cover Photo by Steve Hersh on Flickr