Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2015 RBC Heritage

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2015 RBC Heritage from Harbour Town Golf Links

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With the Masters behind them, the PGA TOUR now sets its sites on Hilton Head, SC and Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage this weekend.  Last week’s amazing performance by world No.2 Jordan Spieth in Augusta will be a tough act to follow, but the 2014 installment of this tourney certainly was an exciting one.  Fans will remember that Luke Donald, who has been in either second or third here in five of the last six years, held a nice lead going into the final round before Matt Kuchar posted a 64 and secured the one-shot victory with a hole-out from the sand on the 18^th.

The field is hit-or-miss since the RBC Heritage follows the biggest tournament of the year and this season there are only two of the top-10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings participating (Jordan Spieth, Jim Furyk) along with another six who are in the top-25.  Despite the field not being the strongest, some big names have taken home the trophy come Sunday as Kuchar, McDowell, Snedeker, and Furyk have all been victorious over the last five years.  The only player who has really dominated this course has been Davis Love III who has come away with the win five different times.  It’s also worth noting that Boo Weekly (2007, 2008) is the last golfer to win in back-to-back seasons.

The par-71, 7,101-yard course may be shorter than many of the others on tour, but Harbour Town presents its own challenges with plenty of water on the links-style layout as evidenced by the fact that winners here have shot a 14-under or worse each year since 2009 when Brian Gay posted a tournament record 20-under par in his victory.

At this point it is hard to imagine anybody beating Spieth with his tremendous play over the past month, but there are a few sleepers sitting in the field that may just shake things up this week.  Let’s review our top five…

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

In an effort to continually provide our Premium Members with the best fantasy content anywhere on the web, this week we’ve added a bonus “Sleeper Report” to help you identify the undervalued, long-shots that can help you score some bonus fantasy points this weekend.  Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

• Pat Perez – 66/1: Perez is in the midst of another solid campaign, making the cut in 10 of his last 11 tournament starts.  Not only has he made it to the weekend, Perez has also been competitive with three top-20s in his last four made cuts.  His accuracy off the tee (65.1%, 49^th on tour) and solid putting (0.320 strokes gained putting, 43^rd on tour) will keep him placing well in most tournaments and that play has earned him some nice finishes here at Harbour Town in the past.  He has tied for 18^th in each of his last two visits here and really showed what he could do last year by posting a strong 64 on Sunday.  His real problem is consistency as he has three rounds of 74 in those two seasons, so if he could keep his blowup days to a minimum, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to jump into the top-10.
• Ben Martin – 80/1: Martin has a lot working in his favor as he heads back to Harbour Town following a tie for third place here last season.  In that installment of the tourney, he was able to hit better than 64% of GIR and fairways and had three rounds of 69 or better, leading to a nine-under par score.  He earned his first career win this season when he took the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in October with four consecutive rounds of 68 or better and a final score of 20-under par.  Martin did not fare too well at the Masters, but did do well in his last tournament before that, placing fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational thanks to shooting five-under on the par-4s over the week.  He has hit the green in regulation 70.8% of the time this season (9^th on Tour) and should have a chance at a ton of birdies once again in Hilton Head.
• Sang-Moon Bae – 100/1: At 100/1 the odds for Bae this week seem to be quite high for a two-time winner on the PGA TOUR—that includes a victory earlier this year at the Frys.com Open.  Since winning that opening event to the season, Bae has three other top-10s and held his own at the Masters with three rounds of par or better.  He has not had too much success when playing here in the past, but should be able to translate his great scrambling (63.9%, 24^th on Tour) and bogey avoidance (14.8%, 39^th on Tour) into a solid score this week.  He does have a missed cut and withdrawal over his last three outings, but Bae is too talented for us to see that trend continuing.
• Alex Cejka – 175/1: Cejka is another tournament winner this year as he took the Puerto Rico Open in early March and has parlayed that success into some solid finishes in his following two events.  He is coming off a tie for 11^th at the Shell Houston Open after opening with a 65 on Thursday.  Alex can be compared to a power/strikeout player in baseball as it seems that he is either in the top-25 or missing the cut, so selecting him is certainly an all-or-nothing choice (a good player for those of you employing a contrarian strategy this week).  His best success here came back in 2009 when he tied for 13^th and now he’ll hope to improve on that showing behind the best start to a year in his career.  Cejka could really surprise some for the rest of the season as he hopes to build on what has already been a very impressive 2015.
• Adam Hadwin – 175/1: With just one top-10 finish Hadwin has not had the success that many of his fellow rookies have seen this year, but he has been consistent with 11 cuts made in 15 events, and making it to the weekend in six of the last seven tournaments he’s entered.  One of his best performances came at the Shell Houston Open where he tied for 25^th and recorded an amazing 72.2% of GIR and 64.3% of fairways hit, all while shooting seven-under on the par-4s.  Hadwin seems to be getting the hang of things at this level and it’s just a matter of time before he ups his game on the weekend—and why not at a tournament with a relatively weak field this week.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2015 RBC Heritage here.

Cover photo by Ryan Buterbaugh on Flickr