Ultimate Guide to Winning Fantasy Golf

[membership level=”0″]

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive premium fantasy content.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Introduction

Fantasy golf may not be the biggest sport in the fantasy realm, but it is certainly been picking up some steam in recent years.  With the a new insurgence of talent coming through in the game, the sport is at a healthy point and is poised to make a big jump with the likes of Rory McIlroy leading the pack in what could be a “Tigeresque” part of his career as he enters his prime.

Getting into fantasy golf can really improve your experience with what is a phenomenal game as it lets you understand the ins and outs of the game in a more in-depth and exciting manner.  Just like in fantasy football (which has become a multi-billion dollar industry), you can see the PGA TOUR starting to accommodate fantasy leagues and with many major media outlets (e.g. PGATOUR.com and GolfChannel.com) even hosting their own leagues.  By doing so, there have been new additions to the statistics game and it has allowed us as fantasy players to pick and choose from these new insights into the game and gain an edge on some of our competitors.

Understanding Important Fantasy Statistics

Analyzing statistics such as strokes-gained putting and strokes-gained tee-to-green help give us a better perspective of exactly what a player can do on a given course.  For example, many of the tougher venues have extremely long par 4s, and finding a golfer who is solid from the 175-225 yard range is important, given that is where many of the second shots will be taken from.  Meanwhile, some of the more traditional golf stats such as fairways hit and greens in regulation percentage can be misleading to fantasy players because they are very broad.  Fairways and greens at some venues are quite large so just getting on them doesn’t always tell the whole story.  Instead, if you are looking for a more up-to-date stat to use in those cases, you can take a look at something like total driving, which combines accuracy and distance, or proximity to hole instead of GIR, to see how close these golfers are getting on their approach shots.

When it comes to looking at a player’s statistics perhaps the most important involves making sure that all of the players that you select are solid putters.  They say that you “drive for show and you put for dough” because if you do not have a solid flat-iron game, you really have no chance at putting up big numbers.

All fantasy golf begins and ends with finding players that are going to be making the cut.  By missing a cut, a player fails to score you points over the weekend and get bonus points for placing highly come Sunday afternoon.  There is no exact science to finding who these players are, and often some of the top golfers in the world will even fail to make the cut, but there is plenty of information out there which can help you to determine who these players may be.  Regardless, cuts-made is an important statistic that always must be considered when selecting your fantasy golf roster.

Diving Into Your Fantasy Research

Now let’s take a look at a few other factors that you should be aware of for each game. These are the basics that you need to follow to have a solid base to work off of when selecting your fantasy team.

1. Know the course – This is very important in golf since each week players will be faced with new challenges including different hazards, unique layouts, and even various grass types.  No golf course is exactly the same and knowing what type of player typically plays well on a given course (or type of course is key.  Typically you will see top players winning at the tougher courses that have a history of minimal scoring while the underdogs can come out of the woodwork at the easier venues throughout the season, but this is not necessarily something that is set in stone.  Some courses will play better to big hitters as others cater to the ability to be successful with a solid sand and putting game.  It’s something that needs to be researched each week and looking at past winners and their strengths will help.  Our favorite one-stop spot for research into golfer’s statistics undoubtedly PGATOUR.com where they have hundreds of different stats ranging from the most recognized (GIR, total driving, strokes-gained putting) to some lesser known stats such as bogey avoidance and par breakers, which can be crucial on the tougher, low scoring courses.

2. Note past successes – Part of your “knowing the course” research should also involve finding who has played well at a particular venue in the past.  There are usually some mid-tier golfers who tend to light up a given golf course for one reason or another, and it will be prudent that you know who they are or others in the league will leave you in the dust when they select them.  Sometimes it isn’t even about grabbing someone who has won or earned a top-five finish multiple times, but rather finding a player who has seen his success at a given course increase from year-to-year.  It’s often tough to look at every single person in the field and their history at a course, but a quick look at a tourneys top-25’s from the past few years on a site like ESPN will point out a few who have owned the course.

3. Look for recent successes – While playing well at a course in previous years is a nice starting point, it is also always smart to see how certain players have done in recent weeks.  More than any other sport, golf is a mental game, and a golfer can go through stretches of tremendous or poor play based on a plethora of different factors.  Finding players who are streaking or slumping is vitally important, and finding if a player’s game has been improving over recent tournaments can give you an edge between multiple choices.  Just like with past success at a course, momentum and confidence can be a nice component to have for a golfer going into a new week, and if they have made a handful of consecutive cuts while being competitive on the weekend, you should ride them until they cool off.  The same can be said for players with a string of missed cuts leading up to an event as they may be having some personal, mental, or physical issues that are unknown to us, and since golf can easily get into the head of players, they may continue to push too hard and have a few blowup rounds.

4. Use social media – Social media has become a huge part of fantasy sports in recent years as you can usually get the most up-to-date information on upcoming tournaments along with a multitude of different perspectives; including updates from golfers themselves.  Follow as many different golfers and golf sites as you can on twitter so that you can get the full effect of the social media stream.  Check often to make sure that each of your selections is starting that week as withdrawals often come in late and can go unnoticed if not monitored closely.  Also, through the use of social media you can get little tidbits that may give you the edge you need to win, such as if a player is going through a swing change, or if they are expecting a child in coming weeks (remember Hunter Mahan’s late withdrawal that cost him a win when his wife went into labor?).  While these are rare cases, they happen, and if you know that a big life event is occurring, the golfers mind (or body) may be elsewhere.

5. Use Las Vegas betting odds – Even if you don’t know much about betting, learn how to understand odds and take a look at them leading up to the event.  Linemakers are employed because of their knowledge of the game and understanding who can perform well from week-to-week, so typically the odds they post are as close as you can get to a solid prediction.  Since they do so much in-depth research, it is assumed that they are including all the information that you are expected to know about the players, including how they are currently playing and how they have done on a given course in the past.  This can be used more for deciding between two otherwise equally matched players but can also be employed to see if some players have better odds despite their lower standing in the world golf rankings.

6. Know the weather – Remember that old Seinfield episode where Kramer says “his mother was a mudder” well as with horse racing some players are just better than others when the elements throw a cog in plans, and it is good to know who they are.  If it is supposed to be a nice week, then typically a long-hitter will benefit from the firmer fairways that get more roll while the opposite is true for players who are great short iron players in wet conditions, as they tend to stick the ball closer to the pin.  It is also a good idea to stay away from players who are fresh on the tour in these conditions as they are both playing a course for the first time and having to deal with some rough weather.

7. Watch the broadcast – You don’t need to watch every second of the tournament, but at least watching some either live or recording it and watching later on can give you insight into the game and players that you would have otherwise not known.  It all goes back to how we learn, as some can learn from just looking at text and analyzing it to the best of their ability, while others are visual learners and need to see it and have it in front of them to best understand.

Different Fantasy Golf Formats and Strategies of Attack

There are plenty of different ways to get involved in fantasy golf, whether it is the start of the year or right in the middle of the season.  You can play in a salary cap league, join a tiered pick ‘em style league, or play on the numerous daily fantasy sites; which also offer an array of different options to play.  Each different format presents its own challenges and each has a different blueprint for winning, some of which we will discuss in further detail to you as we work our way through this guide.

Salary Cap Leagues

This is one of the most popular formats for fantasy golf and the way it works is actually quite simple.  Each fantasy player is given a set certain salary cap against which they can draft their own team of PGA golfers, each of which carries a price based on their recent and past performances.  There will be a wide range of prices that you will need to choose from, so unlike pick ‘em leagues where you typically have a cap on how many times you can use a player throughout the year, in salary cap leagues you can select a golfer as often as you like as long as you stay under your roster cap, but player’s prices will likely be fluctuating from week to week.

Wherever you choose to play it’s also smart to look through the league’s scoring system as all the sites assign a different set of points for certain scores or milestones in a game.  Many times the sites are all about scoring, a good example is the uber-popular DraftKings where you get a ton of points for eagles (8 pts), birdies (3 pts), and a streak of three birdies or better (3 pts), but lose just half of a point for a bogey.  This allows you to get streaky players into your lineup that may not be in the top-five, but will make it to Sunday with plenty of scoring chances.

There are many different strategies that can be used in this format and while no one strategy is perfect, trying each and finding which is most comfortable for you is a must.

Salary Cap League Strategies                           

• Balanced Lineup – This is the best strategy to use when joining a 50/50 or head-to-head game but can also be used effectively in larger tournaments.  Most sites will have a ton of players who are above-average golfers and can all be had for around the same price.  Putting together a group of these talented players with an elite anchor can ensure that you have plenty of made cuts with the chance at a few making it into the top-10.  There is still a lot of research that needs to be done in this case, but now you can decrease the number of golfers to choose from and use past success at a course and other key stats on the year to decipher the right roster to select.

• Studs n’ Duds – The studs and duds strategy can be used in any of the different formats offered, but expect quite a bit more volatility as you need to dig deeper into the lower priced guys to find bargain gems.  The stud’s part is generally fairly easy, you can usually grab two players who are at the top of the game such as Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, or Bubba Watson, and fill out the rest of the roster with young up-and-comers and savvy veterans.  It’s important that you still do research on the top players as some may struggle on a given course or may be coming off a long hiatus from the game (both red flags to stay away).  Regardless, for the most part the top five or six guys in any given tournament will give you a solid effort and provide your team with a nice base to build on.  The real success in this type of strategy comes from finding the players who are going to exceed expectations and take the course by storm.  This is often a high-ceiling rookie or a veteran who has done well at the course in the past.  Remember to look at specific statistics that play well on the given course for that week and match that with players who may not always be at the top of the leaderboard, but have tasted success in their careers.

• Contrarian – This strategy is the toughest to swallow and least likely to succeed, but when it works, you could be looking at an amazing week.  This type of plan should only be used in large tournaments or against a large group of people as it will either make for huge points (which other players do not have) or leave you with a score that puts you near the bottom of the pack.  Taking a contrarian approach is not about just taking guys who are not that good and plugging them into the lineup, but rather finding players who may have had some PGA wins in the past and are just on a bad slump.  All golfers go through hard times and some of the higher-priced players will go nearly untouched in a big tourney because they have either missed recent cuts or failed to play well at a given event in recent years.  These are the top talents in the game, and they know how to hone their craft and be resilient, so keep an eye out for these situations and plug them into your lineup with other similar players each week until you hit.

Finding Sleepers to Round Our Your Roster

It’s easy enough to go through the field looking at top players to see who is a near lock to have a solid week, but it’s not nearly as easy to sift through the bottom feeders.  However, when it comes to salary cap leagues, finding the right sleeper picks with the best chances of having a flash in the pan performance is often the key to success in any given week.

One great thing you can to do to find sleepers is create your own spreadsheet so that you can compare each of the players in one place.  It is very hard to compare 30 or 40 different golfers if you do not have the information right in front of you.  On the sheet, it is important to organize key sleeper stats such as cuts made, past performances at a given course, and rankings in statistics that are necessary to put forth a nice four rounds of golf with the given weather and venue conditions.

Remember that choosing a sleeper is not just about taking a player who is doing poor and thinking that they may do something that week, but rather taking a calculated risk on a high-ceiling player who has proven he is able to put together birdies in a hurry and post some mind-blowing scores; even if not always in every round that he plays.  Many people on the internet give their sleeper picks for an upcoming tournament, and while these are well thought out and likely solid choices, it is important that you do your own research and pick out someone that can be off the radar and comfortable for your team.

Perhaps the most important thing to consider when picking sleepers is their “cuts made” statistic.  It’s a good idea to break this down to not only their recent made cuts (to see if they’re streaking in this category) but also their historic made cuts for the week’s venue, which will tell you if a player is particularly good on a given track.  Remember, if your pick doesn’t make the cut he can’t rack up any points on the weekend, which will leave your roster with a big gaping hole come Sunday.

For more on this, be sure to check out our weekly Tuesday Sleeper Report segment (included in the price of your Golficity Premium Membership) where we’ll break down four or five of the top sleeper picks in any given week based on a number of the factors we just reviewed.

Pick ‘em Leagues

Pick’em fantasy leagues can be fun for everyone involved and can range from very casual games to high-risk money games on different daily fantasy sports sites such as DraftKings, FantasyFeud, and others.  In this format, golfers are tiered into groups based on their skill, typically drawn from the world golf rankings.  The tiers will feature fewer players in the elite or “A” group with more players appearing as you work your way through the different tiers.

The scoring is typically a little bit different from salary cap leagues where points are gained at the end of each round, thus leaving players with an explosive nature at a disadvantage.  Salary Cap leagues will give the players points for each birdie and eagle, and even bonuses when a player can string together scores across multiple holes, but does not give any points for final standing until all is said and done.

Given the way these leagues are structured, it is often the best practice to start from the bottom tier and work your way up when drafting your roster.  Players on the bottom of the rankings are less likely to make the cut and it’s vitally important that you find the ones that will.  In this instance you are not as much looking for the players that can string together high scores, but instead focusing on the ones that can make the cut.

Pick ‘em League Strategies

When it comes to stats the obvious starting point here is “cuts made on the year.”  A rough rule of thumb is to look for the players that have made at least 60% of their cuts while also being successful in at least three of their past four tournaments.  Using that benchmark to eliminate a few options will really help narrow down your selections to a more reasonable group of players, all of which (according to their stats) have been playing some good golf and are poised to continue making cuts.  Once you have this group narrowed down you can go back through and select players based on their individual history and how well their game has been based on year-to-date statistics.

Moving up to the next tier it gets a little more interesting as these golfers are typically up-and-comers who are starting to make a name for themselves.  This tier also often includes quite a few veterans who still have enough in the tank to win a tournament or two.  Most of this tier’s players will make the cut a majority of the time, so it isn’t as important to dive into that statistic this time around.  Instead, try to look for trends in this tier and search for the individuals who have been improving their game from week to week in the previous three or four tournaments, especially as the season begins to have stronger fields.  Also keep an eye out for red flags in this group, eliminating players who have a history of performing poorly at the current week’s course or have seen their scores increasing over the past few weeks.

The elite tier has the fewest number of choices to choose from and therefore requires the least of your attention.  You can generally tell who will be the most owned of the group simply based on their odds and price listed on salary cap and betting sites.  However with there being no salary cap to adhere to, it is the safe (and usually wise) decision to select the player receiving the best odds during a given week.  While there is not quite as much research needed to decide between these few players, you still should look back and see if there are any particular red flags you may want to consider (e.g. injuries, family issues, weather, etc.)

Stratigies for Pick’em League Game Variations

On many sites (such as pgatour.com) you are only allowed to use players a certain number of times throughout the year.  This is often referred to as “limited starts.  This game structure is nice because you can make any foursome you like, but you need to be careful to not take golfers who generally perform well towards the end of the season.  If you exhaust your best picks early you’ll undoubtedly struggle to keep up later in the season.

In this instance, it is smarter to select underdogs early in the season when we usually see less popular names topping the leaderboard at early-season events.  For example, through the first 14 events of the 2014-15 campaign, there were no repeat winners with six of the victors sitting worse than 50^th on the world golf rankings.  History has proven that the first few tournaments are where you can really grab some unknowns as five of those six winners came between October ninth and November 16^th (7 events).

By saving the your elite golfers for the middle of the season (the majors in particular), you can gain an edge on the opposition, especially since these players often prep specifically for these events and use their past experience and success to put forth a tremendous effort.

Playing Daily Fantasy Golf

By far one of the most popular, and rapidly growing segments in fantasy sports are daily fantasy leagues.  These short-term leagues have the added benefit of opening the door for some cash winnings.  Becoming a successful and consistent winner in these leagues involves learning about the different nuances to each of the games that they offer.

Before getting going, make sure that you start with some research of the different sites that offer this type of service.  The most popular site for golf is undoubtedly DraftKings, but a quick search of DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) golf sites will also bring you to others such as FantasyFeud and VICTIV, both of which are significantly smaller than DraftKings but may suit your interests better if you like smaller games.  DFS sites will also usually have some nice sign up bonuses, so keep an eye out for those as they can be rather substantial.

The different strategies listed above for the salary cap leagues can be used on these sites as they usually go with that format and when looking over players it would be wise to begin with the Vegas odds.  All the different DFS sites make their own prices for the golfers based on a multitude of factors, but by comparing where the players rank on their list compared to where they are according to Vegas odds you can very quickly point out some under-priced and over-priced players.

The four types of games that you can join include guaranteed prize pool (GPP), qualifiers, 50/50, and head-to-head.  All have pros and cons that range from the amount of money that is available to be won to the risks that you should take in order to give you a better chance at compiling a successful roster.

Here is a quick overview of each type of game and some quick tips that can help you enjoy them each more:

Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP)

This is one of the most popular games that you can play and are also often the most widely advertised since the winners often take home loads of cash.  Of course, as the number of players vying that top prize increases so does the difficulty of coming out on top.   For this reason there will be a level of luck needed on top of a having a solid roster if you want earn some nice prizes.

It’s crucial to find sleepers if you hope to do well among the thousands of people joining and a contrarian lineup can go a long way.  Even if you do not have an entire lineup of minimally owned players, it is important that you catch on at least one golfer who others will not be putting in their lineup for one reason or another—whether it be due to a recent poor performance or past troubles at a specific course.

The good news is that most of the bigger tournaments allow for multiple entries so you can tinker with the creation of your rosters and run with a few different configurations to increase your chances.  This gives you the chance to put up a contrarian lineup, a balanced lineup, and studs and duds lineup to hedge against the risk of any one player or strategy being unsuccessful.  If you want to give this a try we suggest starting small.  DraftKings often offers leagues that cost only $0.25 per entry, so throw together four lineups for a buck and start honing your skills.

Qualifiers

Qualifiers are a nice way to get into a much more expensive tournament which most casual players would typically not be able to afford.  These tournaments (also sometimes referred to as Satellites) are relatively inexpensive (or sometimes free) to enter and they allow you to win your way into much larger (and more expensive) tournaments.

The strategies to follow are similar to the GPPs, but you can go even deeper into the field and really take chances with there being less money on the line.  This is a fun way to win your way into a huge tourney, but you should be going with an all-of-nothing approach and expect to either put up huge numbers or bust.  Pick a few long-shot sleepers based on the stats we discussed earlier and hope a few strike it hot.

50/50

In this format half of the field doubles up their money while the other half walk away with nothing.  Competition can range from as little as four players up to many thousands.  There is much less risk in playing this type of game because instead of needing to be in the top 10-15% to cash in you just need to do better than half the participants.  The way a 50/50 tournament works is that the top 50% of participants receive payouts while the bottom 50% receive nothing.  Payouts for winners are usually equal with a small bonus sometimes given to the player who comes in first place.

You can throw out the contrarian strategy here (no reason to take that much risk) and use a fairly balanced lineup that is anchored with one stud.  One elite golfer who performs well can literally carry a team in this format and you will be able to take a little less time to develop your lineups as you generally are not looking for the deepest of sleepers.  Remember your goal here is just to stay in the top half of the field.

Look to get all players who will make the cut, they do not necessarily need to be frequent winners on tour, but instead target the guys who make it into the weekend more often than not.

Given that you do not need to beat as many competitors to earn money in a 50/50 we advise that you stick with just one or two lineups between all of the games you enter.  This is the only way that you will have a chance at bringing in a steady flow of money because if you use a ton of different lineups, you will certainly win some, but also lose just as many or more.

Head-to-Head

Head-to-Head games are exactly what they sound like…you vs. one other opponent in a winner takes all game.  The stakes of these games can range from as little as $1 to many thousands of dollars for those willing to really put some dough on the line.

If you are looking to make consistent money on a DFS site, this is often the best place to start.  Look to create a safe, smart roster rather than chasing lightning in a bottle since you only need to beat one competitor, not a field of thousands.  There should be no ultra high-risk players in your lineup and you should have a routine each week that helps you select specific golfers.

A good idea is to have a rule put in place each week based on specific statistics or past results at a course that will remove certain players from consideration.  For example, if you are playing on a week that features a very tough course, take a look back at the majors for the past few years (since majors often play the toughest) and eliminate anyone who has less than 60% cuts made.  It can take a lot of time to dive into each golfer and look at multiple considerations, but looking at just key statistic and cutting the field down will give you more time to investigate players who meet the most important selection criteria.  As with any of the game types, it is crucial to make sure that all of your players are participating that week because just one omission is almost a sure loss.  Keep a close eye on any potential withdrawals and edit your lineup before they lock in.

In head-to-head match-ups you should be using just one lineup and it should be the same as one of the rosters you used for the 50/50.  Again, buy using minimal lineups in the cash games; you are maximizing the payout when you have a successful week.

Deciding What Type of Game is Best for You

When deciding what type of fantasy golf game is best for you it all comes down to what your goal is (e.g. increasing your chances of winning, finding an exciting challenge, or just having fun) and many often decide to play a mixture of games to maximize all outcomes.

If you are looking to just have a little fun and enjoy watching the tournaments more, stick to the large events with a guaranteed prize pool.  They can be found at a relatively cheap price, usually having plenty of choices at five or fewer dollars each, and can payout some monster cash if you come out on top.  Even some of the $2 tourneys pay out thousands to each of the top few victors on a given week.

Individuals who are attempting to turn a profit on one of these DFS sites need to have a well-thought-out game plan and should start by considering how much money they are willing to put into it (don’t get in over your head).  Once you have your bankroll, you need to put in the research that was stated above and target players that are either best suited for GPPs or smaller games with better odds.  The best bet is often putting about 70-80% of your weekly money into cash games (head-to-head and 50/50) where you are expected to consistently increase the size of your wallet.  The leftover amount should go into tournaments that are more populated (hence longer odds) but give you a shot at a big payday.

You should never put all of your bankroll into one event because even with all the best research in the world, you never know what is going to happen once the players tee it up.  There could be mid-round withdrawals (i.e. McIlroy in the 2013 Honda Classic) or blowup rounds that derail an entire tournament, and by having those golfers on your team, you could very well lose all your money.

Final Notes

Golf is one of the most rewarding, frustrating, and heartbreaking games in the world, but when everything clicks, it’s simply magical.  Not many of us can go out there and drive the ball like McIlroy or knock in 20-foot putts like Tiger, but with fantasy golf we have a way to live vicariously through them by employing top players on our rosters for a shot as some bragging rights (and big $) of our own.

Hopefully the information here can help you to better understand not only the different types of fantasy golf that is out there to play, but aid in helping you improve how well you do when you join these games.  Be sure as well to check in with our weekly Fantasy Golf Predictions segments for more detailed analysis that can help you gain the edge in your fantasy leagues.

Now good luck, and go get ’em!

[/membership]