Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2015 Zurich Classic

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2015 Zurich Classic from TPC Louisiana

Event Preview

The spring season rolls on with the Zurich Classic in New Orleans as PGA members tee it up at TPC Louisiana to celebrate the 77th anniversary of this week’s event.

The par-72, 7,425-yard course has been an event that has generally hosted shallow fields in the past and has seen its victors earn their first career victory on its grounds in seven of the last ten installments.  That trend could very well continue this season as only five of the top-25 players from the Official World Golf Rankings are making their way to New Orleans this week.

Leading that group will be No. 5 Jason Dufner (a past winner here) and No. 6 Dustin Johnson, who will also be joined by No. 8 Justin Rose who is coming off a runner-up finish at the Masters just a few weeks ago.  Finishing off the list of top players will be No. 13 Rickie Fowler and the 2014 FedEx Cup Champion, No. 19 Billy Horschel—whose first career victory came on this very course back in 2013.

This venue tends to give up a ton of scoring with the average score for the victor since the tourney was first held at TPC Louisiana in 2007 being nearly 17 strokes under par.  With all this scoring going on, many Sundays have provided exciting finishes with the winner taking it by either one stroke or in a playoff at six of the last seven installments.

Last year, it was Seung-yul Noh who came away with the win after carding a score of 19-under-par behind two rounds of 65 on Thursday and Saturday while hitting 77.8% of greens in regulation.  He actually did separate himself from the field quite a bit, finishing with a two-stroke margin of victory despite shooting a 71 on Sunday.

This certainly isn’t a tournament that has been dominated by just one player in the past with no golfer in the history of the event winning it more than twice—the last person to win in back-to-back seasons was Carlos Franco (1999, 2000).

With so few elite players heading south this week, the underdogs have as good a chance as ever to take home the hardware, so let’s look through some sleepers and long-shots that could make headlines in The Big Easy this week.

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

• John Peterson – 50/1: Peterson has been the definition of consistency this year with 13 made cuts in 14 attempts, but has also failed to crack the top-10 with his best finish being a tie for 11th at the Valero Texas Open.  He followed that up with an 18th last week in South Carolina and seems poised to make a run at getting his first PGA victory here in New Orleans.  Peterson is very accurate off the tee (68.1%, 25th on tour) and that has helped him get to 24th in the rankings of strokes gained from tee-to-green (0.772).  With these two stats working in his favor, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to see a ton of scoring chances and since he ranks 13th on tour in bogey avoidance (13.52), he will likely keep from losing many strokes.  This event is known for allowing players without a win to go against a fairly shallow field, and that should aid him in getting his first top-10 of the year.
• Kevin Kisner – 75/1: Kisner is coming off a tremendous performance at the RBC Heritage where he was the runner-up after losing to Jim Furyk in a playoff.  He shot 68 or better in each round of the event and hit an amazing 82.1% of fairways while also converting 100% of his sand saves.  It was Kisner’s second top-10 of the year as he comes into this tourney making it to the weekend in five of the last six weeks and seems to have upped his performances in tougher tournaments since the easier start to the season.  He will look to continue to build on his solid driving accuracy (66.7%, 37th on tour) and should always remain a threat with his solid scrambling ability (62.8%, 42nd on tour).  Kisner has also shown that he can win with two Web.com Tour victories in the last few years and should us this event to build on his impressive showing at Hilton Head last week.
• Hudson Swafford – 125/1: Swafford has made just eight of his 16 cuts this year, but was in the top-25 in four of those eight weekend visits.  He has also been upping the ante of the past four events with three made cuts, which included a tie for 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in mid-March.  He showed up again last week with four consecutive rounds of par or better at the RBC Heritage where he hit more than 70% of GIR for the third time in his last four outings.  Swafford doesn’t have any one single part of his game that really stands out, but ranks in the top-50 in driving distance (296.4 yards per, 33rd on tour), total driving (95, 5th on tour), proximity to hole (33’7”, 9th on tour) and par breakers (22.7%, 23rd on tour).  Look for Swafford to move up the leaderboards in Louisiana this week.
• K.J. Choi – 125/1: Choi will be looking to become just the 10th player in the history of this event to win multiple times as he was the victor back in 2002 behind a score of 17-under-par.  He also showed some promise in his last two visits here (2012, 2013) when he had three of his six rounds go for a score of 68 or better and gained 0.858 strokes putting before being cut in 2013.  Choi has been solid once again in 2015; making 7-of-10 cuts and is just a few weeks removed from his best showing of the year when he tied for 15th at the Valero Texas Open.  His best years are certainly behind him, but the eight-time PGA winner is still accurate with his driver (65%, 52nd on tour) and has the ability to stick if from 50-125 yards (15’7”, 7th on tour)—both stats which could prove important on a rather short course.  Simply put, the 44-year-old has a very good shot at having his best week of the year in New Orleans.
• Sam Saunders – 200/1: The Sam Saunders hype has died down a bit since he put together a string of great performances recently, all stemming from a runner-up showing at the Puerto Rico Open. That event had a very weak field and he rose up to the occasion there, so it would be a surprise he if he is able to do so once again at TPC Louisiana.  Saunders has made four of his last five cuts and even though he didn’t make it to the weekend in South Carolina, he shot a 69 on Friday and hit 75% of fairways over the two rounds.  If he can keep up that type of driving accuracy and continue to hit the ball far (293 yards per, 55th on tour), he could really set himself up for some great scoring opportunities.  Arnold Palmer’s grandson certainly has the pedigree to make it in this game and he should continue his solid play over the weekend.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2015 Zurich Classic here.

Cover photo @topperformancegolf on Instagram