Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – THE PLAYERS Championship 2015

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for THE PLAYERS Championship 2015 from TPC Sawgrass

Event Preview

The season’s unofficial “fifth major” kicks off this week as the PGA TOUR sets its sites on the biggest purse in the sport, going after a whopping $10 million at the Players Championship.

TPC Sawgrass has been the site of this big event since its inception back in 1974 and has seen some of the toughest fields the game has to offer.  In fact, some major players have taken home the trophy and in the past decade names such as Kaymer, Woods, Kuchar, Stenson, Garcia, Mickelson, and Scott have all topped the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

One big news story this week will be the fact that Woods will be making his first start since the Masters as he looks to tie Jack Nicklaus for the most wins at the tourney (3).  Be on the look out for plenty of media buzz as Tiger takes to the first tee.

Last year, Martin Kaymer was able to grab a nice lead with an opening round 63, but shot just four-under over the next three days to narrowly beat out Jim Furyk by a stroke during a rain delayed final round.  Overall, [layers from outside of the U.S. did a great job in the big event with seven of the top 11 coming from overseas and one other coming from America’s neighbor to the north.

Kaymer’s winning score of 13-under-par seems to be a strong predictor of who will walk away with a win as the victor in each of the last four installments has finished with that mark and only two winners have done better than that since 2003.

The field will once again be tremendous as just one player from the top-50 in the Official World Golf Rankings will be absent this week.  The star-studded group will be led by world No. 1 Rory McIlroy who is fresh off a victory at the WGC Cadillac Match Play Championship.

As the season progresses the names earning the wins have been more prominent with each of the last five winners ranking in the top-15 of the OWGR with three of them being in the top-five.

It will be tough for any of the players outside of the top-25 to earn themselves a top showing this week, but there are always a few that surprises on any given week and sleepers can always light up the field unexpectedly.  So with that said, let’s dive into five long-shot (50/1 or greater odds) players who could do exactly that this week at the par-72, 7,215-yard stadium course.  Use these selections to help light up your DraftKings or any other salary cap fantasy leagues this week.

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Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

• Ryan Moore – 80/1: Moore has been tearing up the PGA TOUR this year as evidenced by his 10th place ranking in the FedEx Cup standings, and while he has not played quite as consistently lately—placing worse than 50th twice in his last two outings—he has looked great in both the Masters (12th) and the Valspar Championship (5th) over his last four starts.  Moore has four victories in the past, including taking the CIMB classic earlier this season, but has yet to see his name on any trophies from bigger tournaments such as this one.  He’s placed in the top-12 at two of the last three majors and has been one of the more accurate drivers (69.6%, 17th on tour) on the tour as he is 25th in par breakers (22.8%).  The 32-year-old seems to be in the mix each week, and is just one step away from breaking through in a big event such as this one.
• Morgan Hoffman – 100/1: After a rough start to the season in which Hoffman missed two of the first five cuts and did no better than 51st in his three visits to the weekend, the Oklahoma State alum has picked things up and is one of the hottest players on tour with four top-30 finishes in his last six events while holding his own in both the WGC Cadillac Championship (17th) and the Masters (28th).  He’s been in double-digits under par in three of his last four tournaments behind a solid drive (294.9 yards per, which is good for 37th on tour) and great putting (0.378 strokes gained putting, 38th on tour).  This youngster has a bright future ahead and should be making more of a name for himself as this season rolls along.
• Danny Willett – 100/1: Willett introduced himself to the American fan base in a big way this past week in the Match Play Championship, making it all the way to the semi-finals before losing to Gary Woodland.  He went on the defeat Jim Furyk in the consolation match and jumped 11 spots in the OWGR to 38th in the world.  Willett had three rounds under par at the Masters, but a Saturday 76 kept him from being a true contender as he ended in a tie for 38th.  He is well known overseas as he ranks second in the Race for Dubai behind a victory at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and a 75.4% GIR.  On the PGA TOUR this year, the Englishman has one putt 44.4% of the time (6th on tour) and has gained 0.539 total strokes (47th on tour).  This is one player from across the pond that should be watched carefully as he starts to play more and more in the United States.
• Chris Kirk – 125/1: Kirk has put together a solid campaign thus far, making 11-of-14 cuts with five top-25s as he looks to build on the career year he had in 2014.  During that season, he missed just two cuts and had two wins, making over $4 million in earnings along the way.  He showed up at the Texas Open a few weeks ago where he ended in eighth and had a solid showing at Augusta when he tied for 33rd as he’s now made the cut at majors in five of his last six tries—including getting a top-20 finish twice.  Last year, he shot a Sunday 67 to get him up to 13th behind 71.4% of fairways hit.  Kirk has not excelled in any one area of his game, but does posses a solid short game, ranking sixth on tour in sand save percentage (66.7%) and 45th in scrambling (62.8%).  His three past PGA TOUR wins show that Kirk has the ability to close out tournaments and if he can get off to a fast start he should be able to stay in the mix all week.
• Spencer Levin – 300/1: It’s Levin’s past success at this venue that earns him a spot here and even though he has not played in the event since 2012, his showings in that year (15th) and in 2011 (12th) show that he is comfortable at this meandering stadium course.  He has been much improved this year with made cuts in 10-of-16 events after missing the weekend more often than not in 2014 and also has three top-25s in 2015.  Levin is coming off a nice week in New Orleans, improving his score as the tournament moved along and his 66 on Sunday helped him earn a tie for 28th.  He has one of the more accurate drives on tour (70.5%, 11th on tour) which should allow himself plenty of opportunities to score.  Plus best of all, few fantasy players will have him on their radar.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy golf preview for THE PLAYERS Championship 2015 here.

Cover photo by mookiefl on flickr.