Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2015 FedEx St. Jude Classic

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2015 FedEx St. Jude Classic from TPC Southwind

Event Preview

It’s the final week before the U.S. Open and the PGA TOUR will now head to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee to play in the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  This event has been a tour mainstay at TPC Southwind since 1989 and the contest generally sees a weak field (especially for an event leading up to a major).

In the past, the par-70, 7,239-yard course has been host to five different multiple-time winners with Dave Hill (1967, 1969, 1970, 1973) doing it the most overall and Justin Leonard (2005, 2008) being the most recent to do so.

The top guy from the Official World Golf Rankings set to tee it off this week is world No. 7 golfer Dustin Johnson who will look to win here for the second time after taking home the trophy in 2012 behind a score of nine-under-par.  The winning score was the only other single-digit victory by a player in this event since 2008 when the aforementioned Leonard shot a mere four-under in his win.

Aside from Johnson, another three players (Phil Mickelson, Billy Horschel, and Brooks Koepka) from the top-25 in the Official World Golf Ranking join the field as they each attempt to become the 16th American in the past 17 years to win here.

Last year, it was all about Ben Crane who captured the win here after an opening round 63 and finished ahead of Troy Merrit despite shooting a 73 on Sunday.  It was his fifth PGA TOUR victory and first since 2011 as he was able to hold off a strong top of the leaderboard featuring Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel, Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler, who were all among the top-15.  He did so with some big time putting (2.188 strokes gained putting) and was the second golfer in the past nine years to hold onto his lead heading into Sunday at this event.

Last week it was another big underdog that took home the trophy as David Lingmerth (300/1 odds going in) outlasted a very strong group behind him that included the likes of Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Jim Furyk, and Keegan Bradley, all in the top-10.

Now let’s take a look at the field this week and see if the TOUR can make it 3-for-3 in having a big sleeper top the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

• Jason Bohn – 55/1: Bohn has been having a solid 2015 campaign and is just itching for his third PGA Tour victory (and first since 2010), as he has two runner-up performances this year—one coming at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the other coming very recently at the Crowne Plaza Invitational just a few weeks ago.  Overall, he has made 14-of-18 cuts (78%) and has placed in the top-25 in half (7) of those visits to the weekend.  Bohn has been successful this year due to his amazing driving accuracy (71.54%, 5th on TOUR) and as a result is hitting plenty of GIR (69.58%, 17th on TOUR).  The 42-year-old is in the midst of a career-best season and should be able to continue that trend this week at a course where he has ranked in the top-25 each of the past two visits.
• Will Wilcox – 80/1: Wilcox has played in just eight events during the 2015 season—most of them being against weak fields—but nonetheless has earned six made cuts and four-top-25s in that time.  He has also made the cut in five of the past six weeks and has been very competitive during that stretch, with three finishes within the top-18.  Wilcox is coming off a Byron Nelson event in which he shot 68 or better each day and grabbed a 22nd with his eight-under-par score.  Just like Bohn ahead of him here, Wilcox ranks among the top-25 in driving accuracy (68.23%, 25th on TOUR) and GIR (71.43%, 4th on TOUR) and has the propensity to get it done with his short game where he ranks 16th in scrambling (64.58%) and 6th in sand save percentage (65.85%).  Look for the former Web.com graduate to build on his solid showings with a nice performance in Tennessee this week.
• Camilo Villegas – 90/1: It’s Villegas’ recent dominance of this course which warrants his name on this list as the four-time PGA Tour victor has been among the top-11 at TPC Southwind in four of the past five installments.  His best showing during that stretch came in 2011 when he grabbed a third place behind hitting 73.61% of GIR and scoring a solid five-under-par on the par-4s.  This year, Villegas has certainly fallen off as his FedExCup Standing and now sits outside of the top-100 (148th) for just the second time in his career, but he still does have two top-25s and ranks 60th in strokes gained putting (0.194 strokes gained) this season.  TPC Southwind should be a spot where the Colombian-born player can shine and turn things around in 2015.
• Colt Knost – 100/1: The former SMU graduate is coming off a missed cut at the Memorial Tournament, but racked up two consecutive top-10 showings previous to that with 7-of-8 rounds at 68 or better between the Byron Nelson and Crowne Plaza Championships.  In all he has made 11-of-19 cuts (58%) and added another top-10 finish earlier in the year at the Humana Challenge when a Sunday 63 bumped his score to 19-under and a tie for 10th.  Knost seems to always be in the fairway with his drives, ranking seventh in the category on TOUR with 71.03% of fairways hit while also being in the top-50 in GIR (68.33%, 36th on TOUR) and proximity to hole (33’4”, 7th on TOUR).  With the weak field here, it’s a perfect opportunity for Knost to go after and win his first PGA TOUR event.
• Stewart Cink – 125/1: Cink has played at this event just once in the past four years, making the cut with a 53rd-place showing last year as he managed to hit 62.5% of GIR.  The veteran has been consistent yet unspectacular on the year, making 11-of-15 cuts (73%), but finishing within the top-25 just once.  That top-25 came fairly recently when he was able to tie for 20th at the Wells Fargo Championship behind three days under par.  With that Sink has now made it to the weekend in four of the past five events, including shooting par or better in each of his four rounds at the Memorial Tournament last week.  He is certainly not the sexy pick in Memphis, but is always giving himself chances at scoring with 72.22% of greens hit in regulation (2nd on TOUR) and should be able to play all four days competitively.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy golf preview for the 2015 FedEx St. Jude Classic here.

Cover photo by Memphis CVB on Flickr