Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview
After a brief pit-stop in the Arizona dessert the PGA TOUR moves back to California this week to one of the most notorious (and beautiful) courses on the schedule. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will consist of a stacked field of fantasy studs from top to bottom. Names like Spieth, Day, Watson, Rose, Snedeker, Johnson, and Mickelson will all be in attendance this week, so make sure you select your teams wisely because their are plenty of potentially viable winners to select from.
Pebble Beach will feature cliffs similar to a Torrey Pines layout but without the horrible windy and rainy weather that we saw two weeks ago at the Farmers.
As difficult as Pebble may be, there are some players that just seem to know how to win here, as evidenced by the fact that this infamous cliff side course has produced five back-to-back winners. One of those players who appears to have Pebble Beach’s number is Brandt Snedeker. In fact, if Sneds can pick up a win here this week not only will he be the sixth guy to go back-to-back here, he’d also will have won in three of the last four years of this event. (Brandt won here in 2013 and 2015, setting the tournament record by firing a -22, 265 last year). But, is the charging Snedeker good enough for a horse pick? We’ll see…
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Our fantasy prediction algorithms have been dead-on as of late as our data pointed strongly to Snedeker and Matsuyama over the last two weeks. Sadly, we ended up on the wrong side of what came down to basically a “coin flip” decision as we opted not to pick them in favor of a few other players who underperformed at the Farmers and Phoenix Opens.
In case your wondering how our fantasy selection process works here’s the 10,000 ft view: our multiple statistical data points are combined with individual player stats and Vegas odds to pull in the best 2-3 players within each salary cap tier. After that, our fantasy gurus get to work select one player to fill the slot (the final decision is based largely on intangibles like a player’s momentum, confidence, and track-record going into an event). Needless to say, opting to go with Dufner over Matsuyama hurt us last week and our sleeper picks under performed on a loud TPC Scottsdale course, but we’ll pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and breakdown the data to see what we can learn from our mistakes in order to bounce back in a huge way this week at Pebble Beach.
The good news is that after twelve events in the book this season we have nabbed five winners and even with two bad week’s we’ve still managed to bank a total weekly average earnings of $993,332. We’re also still hovering around the 75% cuts-made list out of the 84 total picks (7 per event) we’ve made this season (that includes sleeper selections).
The 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Field
As we mentioned in our preview, this week will feature an all-star studded event with OWGR No. 1 Jordan Spieth and No. 3 Jason Day joining up to headline the event with the defending champ Brandt Snedeker. The total lineup will consist of 12 of the top 25 players in the World including six that are among the top 10.
Just when this couldn’t look anymore like a field at a Major, Bubba Watson and Justin Rose have decided to make their AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debuts this week as well. Last but not least, four-time winner of this event, Phil Mickelson and 2014 winner Jimmy Walker will also join the field for what should be a fun week with loads of talent.
For more, here’s this week’s full field.
The Course
Pebble Beach Golf Links measures in at 6,828 yards and plays as a par 72 and is by far one of the “must play” tracks on top of ever golfer’s bucket list.
The PGA TOUR made its debut here way back in 1947 and has been back every year since. With a similar feel to that of Torrey Pines, Pebble sits atop scenic cliffs with the beautiful Carmel Bay in the background.
Last year’s winner (Snedeker) won this event 22 under and the winner here has been in the double-digits under par in every year dating back to 1995, so clearly guys have the ability to go low here.
The other courses on the grounds (Spyglass Hill GC and Monterey Peninsula CC’s Shore course) will also be used in the first three days of play.
Pebble Beach Resorts on Instagram: “A little something to fuel your day! #PebbleBeachResorts #PebbleBeachGolfLinks #PhotoOfTheDay”
Pebble Beach Resorts shared a post on Instagram: “A little something to fuel your day! #PebbleBeachResorts #PebbleBeachGolfLinks #PhotoOfTheDay”. Follow their account to see 2509 posts.
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Weather Forecast for Pebble Beach, CA
Expect a great week at Pebble Beach with 70 degree weather, a very light breeze, and plenty of sunshine with little to no chance of rain. We all saw how the Day 4 weather affected everyone at Torrey Pines and we’re relieved to see that the field will be avoiding trouble from the skies this week. Few things are more frustrating then when Mother Nature sweeps in and totally annihilates your fantasy team.
Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
With just one bogey over 72 holes, Brandt Snedeker broke his own AT&T Pro-Am scoring record to win his second title in three years at Pebble Beach. Brandt came into the final day one shot back and pulled ahead of the pack shortly into his round. His nearest competitor, Nick Watney ended up on a bogey train in the final stretch which opened the door for Snedeker to run away with it.
Sned’s closing 67 left put him at 22-under which was two shots better than his victory in 2013. Meanwhile, Watney finished with a 69 and ended up was three shots back.
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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Thursday (Feb 11, 2016) – Friday (Feb 12, 2016) 3pm-6pm (Golf Channel)
- Saturday (Feb 13, 2016) – Sunday (Feb 14, 2016): 1pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3pm-6:00pm EST (CBS)
- Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM
- Thursday (Feb 11, 2016) – Friday (Feb 12, 2016) 12pm-6pm pm EST
- Saturday (Feb 13, 2016) 1:00pm -6:00pm EST
- Sunday (Feb 14, 2016): 2:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
- PGA TOUR LIVE
- Thursday (Feb 11, 2016) – Friday (Feb 12, 2016): 11 am – 3 pm EST (Featured Groups), 3-6pm (Featured Holes)
- Saturday (Feb 13, 2016) – Sunday (Feb 14, 2016), 11 am.-6 pm EST (Featured Groups).
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am this Week
Win a trip to Vegas all expenses paid for by DraftKings? That sounds like something we can get on board with. But first the cheaper entry event…
- DRAFTKINGS PGA $40K HYBRID [3 ENTRY LIMIT, $40K GTD]: For a $3 dollar entry, you can take on a field size of 15,000 players for a 1st prize of $3,000. Better yet, you don’t hate to be perfect in this one as you can double your money all the way down to 3236th place.
- DRAFTKINGS WIN A VIP GOLF TRIP TO TIGER JAM IN LAS VEGAS: According to DraftKings, this contest will award the winner a trip for two to the Tiger Woods Foundation’s Tiger Jam event in Las Vegas from April 28th to May 1st. The trip includes three night’s stay, $1,000 towards airfare, and a non-stop weekend of golf related events. And by the way, the prize also comes with two rounds of golf at Shadow Creek golf course (by far the best course in Vegas), as well as a photo opportunity with Tiger Woods, parties, concerts, and much more.
Needless to say, DraftKings is still the place to play fantasy golf—that is, at least until Fan Dual finally gets in the game (what’s taking those guys so long?)—but if you want to try your luck in some less crowded contests with lower payouts it’s worth giving Fantasy Feud a look this week.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The challenge this week for fantasy players is that the clear cut favorite—who almost everyone is going to pick—is the most expensive (obviously). But regardless of his hefty $12,300 DraftKings price tag, plenty of players will still have Spieth (Vegas 5/1) on their rosters this week even though Jason Day isn’t projected that far behind (Vegas 8/1, $11,800). So, which one should head your roster? Back to that in a minute.
Next on the list you have Dustin Johnson (Vegas 11/1, DraftKings salary: $11,400) a two-time winner here matched up almost evenly to Brandt Snedeker (Vegas 14/1, $11,100) who is also a two-time winner and the defending champion. This will be the hardest choice you’ll make this week because you can’t fit both of these guys on your roster unless you opt to forgo a big Horse Pick. As a bonus to help our Premium Members out this week we’ll offer a sample lineup with quality sleepers in order to fit both DJ and Snedeker on your squad, but we’re only picking one as our “go to” this week.
The boys will have to grind to make a 54-hole cut that will include the low 60 players and ties. Those players who finish 61st-70th (plus ties) will earn FedExCup points and TOUR earnings, but won’t partake in the final round and probably won’t help your fantasy team win. With this in mind it should go without saying that cuts-made will be a very important fantasy statistic to look at this week.
Other key stats for Pebble Beach this week are Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, Total Driving, and Scrambling. We need guys with stamina this week who usually make noise on ‘moving day’ and may have to ignore some of the obvious picks based on our indicators.
Let’s do it…
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
(Note: Keep in mind most of these 2016 statistics are a result of only one or two events for most of these players and are therefore limited in their predictive capacity.)
Horse Pick: Jordan Spieth or Jason Day?
Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 3/2 FPPG: 133.33 GPFP: 172.00 Salary:$12,300): Truthfully, eventhough Jordan is the hottest player in the world right now this was still a tough call over Jason Day. The Aussie is still hot from his FedExCup playoff dominance last year and with a perfect 6-for-6 record and a T4 last year at Pebble Beach it’s tough not to pick him. Now let’s talk Spieth and truthfully we don’t need to sell him because he sells himself every week. The hottest player on the planet is walking into an event that feels like a major tournament with a ton of celebrities and a packed field and not only does he knows the course very well, he’s also proven himself to have ice in his veins. As young as Jordan is, pressure just doesn’t seem to get to this kid. As far as his Pebble experience goes, Spieth finished T4 here in 2014 and followed it up last year with a T7. If his off-the-tee game shows up this week, it could be a blowout.
- Total Driving: 167th
- Scrambling: 2nd
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 1st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 1st
* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 1st
Mid Tier I: Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson or Brandt Snedeker?
Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 12/1 FPPG: 77.93 GPFP: 89.62 Salary: $11,100): Bubba making his Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut and DJ’s lack of consistency lead us to steer in the direction of the defending champion. Snedeker, despite falling back to T33 in Phoenix after riding four straight top three finishes, is still the strongest competitor to take down Spieth this week. Brandt is defending for the second time in three years and continues to impress so far this season. He lacks the power of DJ and Bubba, but his putter should be able to bail him out on this track as it’s done for him twice already.
- Total Driving: 159th
- Scrambling: 32nd
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 9th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 57th
* Most Notable Stat: Total Putting: 5th
Mid-Tier II: Jimmy Walker, Phil Mickelson, or JB Holmes?
JB Holmes (Golficity Odds 25/1 FPPG: 86.88 GPFP: 111.12 Salary: $9,800): We know what you’re thinking, ‘picking the one guy who never won at Pebble?’ But keep in mind, we need grinders this week who will tough out a 54-hole cut and JB Holmes is the right guy for that with the perfect game for this course—plus he’s the cheapest option of the three. Despite his opening round 73 in Phoenix last week, Holmes still ended up with a T6 finish which is exactly how he finished the week before at tough and wet Torrey Pines. He’s got power off of the tee and can scramble very well. If he can put together four solid rounds without slipping up you can look for JB to be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
- Total Driving: 35th
- Scrambling: 40th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 98th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 18th
* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 5th
Low Tier Picks (2): Danny Lee, Freddie Jacobson, and/or Jason Bohn?
Danny Lee (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 72.42 GPFP: 68.80 Salary: $8,400): Lee’s a little streaky but he’s trending in the right direction after he flirted with victory in Phoenix last week. You can’t read too much into the 80 he carded in Round 4 at Torrey Pines due to treacherous winds and rain—a lot of guys struggled in those conditions. More importantly he followed that poor performance up with 67-66-67 before shooting 73 on Sunday. For the price, Lee can open up some room on your roster and give you a healthy amount of points if he brings that same game back from last week.
- Total Driving: 47th
- Scrambling: 89th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 47th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 22nd
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 15th
Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 45/1 FPPG: 89.00 GPFP: 86.33 Salary: $7,700): With three Top 3 finishes (including two runner ups), there’s no doubt that Jason bohn is off to a hot start in 2016. Bohn currently ranks 13th in GIRs and 5th in scoring average among many other favorables stats. He’s also 6 for 10 at this event in his career with very inconsistent finishes, but the funny thing about golf is that sometimes the past doesn’t even matter. Bohn is simply a better golfer right now than we’ve seen from him historically.
- Total Driving: 55th
- Scrambling: 71st
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 65th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 12th
* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 5th
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
James Hahn (Golficity Odds 60/1 FPPG: 76.92 GPFP: 66.92 Salary: $7,500): We’ll admit that we just hopped on the Hahn train after Phoenix and even stayed away from him last week. He was the 36-hole leader last week and his game looked sharp until he fell to a T17 with a disappointing weekend. Did the big weekend crowd get to him in Phoenix? We’re unsure, but we know he likes this course. James finished third in his debut here in 2013 and is a big fan of this event. Hahn is a tough pick based on just stats alone, so we’re putting a premium on his ‘trending’ factor this week.
- Total Driving: 36th
- Scrambling: 136th
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 143rd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 129th
* Most Notable Stat: Total Driving: 36th
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Willie McGirt (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 84.25 GPFP: 110.10 Salary: $7,400): How’s this for a super-sleeper? McGirt isn’t a name we run with often but we needed to pick the best possible candidate with a sub $7,500 price tag to leave you enough room at the top for the guys above. With five Top 30 finishes (two of which are Top 10s) and only one missed cut, McGirt looks to be the perfect choice in this spot. His stats match up nicely for this track as well as he has some nice finishes here at Pebble (along with two missed cuts). Willie is riding a high 110.10 GPFP on the back of his solid 8.3 rated short game and 8.2 putting. If those areas are working for him this week he should see a solid finish.
- Total Driving: 101st
- Scrambling: 81st
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 20th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 51st
* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 7th
DraftKings Roster Suggestion with Spieth
DraftKings Roster Suggestion without Spieth
BONUS: DraftKings Roster Suggestion with DJ and Snedeker
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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WM Phoenix Open
- Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 8/1, GPFP: 140.80): T14 $117,000
- Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 10/1, GPFP: 97.79): T33 $35,913
- Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 18/1, GPFP: 70.80): MC
- David Lingmerth (Golficity Odds 28/1, GPFP: 86.56): MC
- Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 36/1, GPFP: 82.87): T24 $48,183
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WM Phoenix Open
- Fabian Gomez (Golficity Odds 50/1, GPFP: 97.27): MC
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WM Phoenix Open
- Si Woo Kim (Golficity Odds 66/1, GPFP: 81.13): T67 $13,325
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Flickr
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