Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open

2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Preview

The hottest party on the PGA TOUR hits the desert of TPC Scottsdale this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.  This long-standing event has been held annually since 1932 when it was first called the Arizona Open and boasts one of the best atmospheres on TOUR as the local socialites and students from renowned party school, Arizona State University, create a unique and rare setting for golf.  Much of the luster of this tournament can be seen at the 16th, a fairly basic par-three, which is transformed for the WM Phoenix Open with a stadium setting in which the players are completely surrounded with the thought of boo’s raining down if they fail to land on the dance floor on their first shot.

The setting is certainly more conducive to some rather than others, but once the players are able to have a little fun while staying focused, great golf ensues.  One man that has dominated this par-71, 7,216-yard course is none other than former Sun Devil Phil Mickelson.  “Lefty” has three of his 42 career PGA TOUR victories at this venue and has defeated the rest of the field by a combined nine strokes over his last two wins (2005, 2013).  The most impressive was certainly his most recent, when he shot a tournament record 28-under-par and torched the runner-up, Brandt Snedeker, by four shots.

Mickelson’s large margin of victories here are rare in recent years, though, and since his 2005 win, only one player, J.B. Holmes, has taken home the check after defeating the field by more than one stroke.  Of the other eight seasons when either Mickelson or Holmes has not won, the crowd has seen plenty of close finishes with three being decided in extra holes and the other five coming by a mere stroke.

Last year, it was Brooks Koepka who edged out the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Palmer, and Bubba Watson to become the WM Phoenix Open champ while marking the eighth consecutive year that an American proved to be the best over the four days.  He will return this week in an attempt to become the 14th golfer with multiple wins at this tourney.

Besides Koepka, the field will boast another nine players from the top-25 in the OWGR rankings.  The top seeded will be No. 4 Rickie Fowler who will be joined by Vegas favorite and Scottsdale resident No. 5 Bubba Watson, as well as last week’s winner of the Farmers Insurance Open, Brandt Snedeker, two-time Waste Management Open winner, J.B. Holmes, and current FedExCup leader, Kevin Kisner.

With the solid lineup getting ready to set fire to the desert, it may be tough for a player with low odds to sneak through, but with the exciting atmosphere and plenty of scoring available there will certainly be some “sleeper” names that creep up the scoreboard and take a stab at the top spot.  Let’s see which long-shots can stay cool under the Arizona sun and make a statement at TPC Scottsdale this week.

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2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Hunter Mahan – Vegas Odds 66/1: Mahan saw a big decline in his final standing last year, but it was more a result of him not earning many top-10 finishes than anything else.  He still managed to make it to the weekend in 20-of-24 attempts (83%) and finish in the top-50 of the FedExCup standings.  Hunter is having a similar start to this year, going 3-for-4 in cuts made with one top-25, but earns a spot on this list thanks to his solid showings here in the past.  Since 2009, the 33-year-old has played all four rounds in each of his six attempts with two finishes in the top-four; including winning the whole thing in 2010 behind 83% GIR and 75% fairways hit.  He is coming off a consistent week at Torrey Pines, but faltered in the final round along with everyone else thanks to the weather, and should be able to come out with his best showing of the year this week in the desert.

Charles Howell III – Vegas Odds 66/1: Just like Mahan, Howell III is an alumni of Oklahoma State University, and also like Mahan, he has performed well at TPC Scottsdale in the past.  Over the past six years, he does have a missed cut (2011) and a 71^st (2015), but has sandwiched in two top-sixes as well.  Unlike Mahan, Howell III has never really been regarded as one of the elite in the sport, ranking in the top-20 of the FedExCup standings just twice since 2007 while owning two career PGA TOUR victories.  Despite that, he has come out firing on all cylinders in 2016, and through eight events has made every cut with seven top-25s; including two in the top-10.  He’s done so well thanks to great distance off the tee (306.1 yards per, 23rd on TOUR) and a scoring average of 69.931 (11th on TOUR) which should give him the length and confidence to perform at a venue where he seems to be very comfortable.

Ian Poulter – Vegas Odds 66/1: Poulter is one of the most erratic golfers on TOUR and can often be recognized as one of the best out there.  He has just two career victories when playing on the PGA TOUR, but has been borderline dominant when playing across the pond on the European Tour, taking down 12 trophies and playing well in recent events.  Since the beginning of November, he has participated in four European Tour and one WGC events, finishing in the top-16 three times.  Poulter is solid across the board, making any week that he can put it all together an instant threat to make some serious cash, and this could be a lightning in a bottle situation for the now 40-year-old veteran of the game.

Fredrik Jacobson – Vegas Odds 100/1: Jacobson may be getting up there in age, as he is now 41-years-old, but he has been able to continue playing at a high level and the early going of this season has been a success.  He currently ranks 24th in the FedExCup standings thanks to two top-10s in six outings and was one of the few players who held up fairly well at the Farmers Insurance Open, posting a final score of three-under and managing a tie for fourth.  His short game has been phenomenal thus far, ranking 19th in scrambling (69.23%) and 47th in sand save percentage (60%), while gaining more than a stroke on the field with his putting in each of the past two weeks.  Jacobson should be able to maintain a great start while in Arizona this with the momentum he has gained of late.

Scott Brown – Vegas Odds 150/1: Brown is looking to take the next step on the TOUR this year and really make a mark for himself as a consistent competitor from week-to-week.  In the past, he has shown some inconsistencies, but does know how to put it all together as evidenced by his 2012 victory at the Puerto Rico Open.  This event is certainly a different beast than his sole victory, but he has shown improvements in 2016 with 5-of-7 cuts made and two top-20s, including a nice tie for fifth at the OHL Classic.  Brown will need to keep up his accuracy on the fairways (66.4%, 43rd on TOUR) and improve his putting (-0.217 strokes gained putting, 149th on TOUR) to get a nice showing this week, but he has been playing well and is just entering his prime as a golfer which sets up perfect for the 32-year-old.

Need a few more options to fill up your roster?  Remember to check out our new fantasy predictions stats page for Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points, Price Per Fantasy Point, and more info on every player in this week’s field!

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open here.

Cover photo via Flickr