Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the WGC-Cadillac Championship
2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship Preview
It’s been a wild ride for fantasy golf over the last few weeks and it goes to show you that the highest priced player in the field certainly isn’t always the smartest selection. Look back just two weeks ago when we picked McIlroy over the heavy favorite Jordan Spieth at Riviera and again last week when we took Fowler over McIlroy. In both those events the pricier and more strongly favored players (Spieth and then McIlroy) missed the cut. This week poses a whole different issue now that we have the best players in the world facing off in a small field on an extremely tough, windy, and water riddled Florida course.
The WGC-Cadillac Championship is the first event in 2016 that will feature Spieth, Day, and McIlroy in the same field, and most likely in the same paring. McIlroy, who only just two week ago began his 2016 U.S. schedule, is although heavily favored again this week (Vegas odds have him at 8/1) but did not look sharp at the Honda Classic last week.
Jason Day has also been noticeably absent from most of the early 2016 season but already has racked up two Top 11 finishes in just three starts this season. That success is contrasted by his unexpected missed cut in his title defense at Torrey Pines. Jordan Spieth has played the most of the trio with four events under his belt so far including a victory at The Hyundai TOC but is coming off of his most disappointing missed cut in a while. It’s also worth noting that the last time these “big three” all played together was the 2015 TOUR Championship at East Lake.
But Jason, Jordan, and Rory aren’t the only studs in this week’s star-studded WGC event. Names like Watson, Rose, Fowler, Scott, Garcia, Johnson and Reed will all catch their fair share of headlines this week as well. OWGR No. 4 and Northern Trust Open winner Bubba Watson leads the pack with three top-3 finishes in his past four visits to the Blue Monster but the powerful lefty has never been able to close the door here.
It’s tough enough to pick a winner in a large field but believe us, it’s much harder to pick a winner in a small field when all 50 players are the best in the world and each has a viable chance of taking home the hardware. This week will take some additional in-depth fantasy analysis for sure…
For those of you out there looking for a new twist on fantasy golf be sure to check out the newly released No Halftime app which allows you to create and join player vs player fantasy contests for every round of this week’s WGC-Cadillac event. We dive deeper into this new format in our “Where to Play” segment below.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Despite picking Rickie (T6) as our horse pick over Rory (MC), it was a tough finish last week for our fantasy picks at PGA National. We’ll be the first to admit that we simply weren’t ready to jump on the Adam Scott bandwagon until he showed us a little more with the short stick. That said, it looks like Adam Scott is in fact the real deal as he once again dropped putts from every range with deadly precision.
This opening birdie was key in Adam Scott’s victory at The Honda Classic. https://t.co/5umk6SL3yN https://t.co/llRooLZbCT
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 29, 2016
In all, we ended up making 6 of 7 cuts (including sleeper picks) with Rickie as our best finisher at T6 and a pair of T14s from Huh and Steele.
With the 15th tournament in the books our seven weekly fantasy picks are currently averaging $931,551 in total tournament fantasy earnings as we now turn our focus to one of the biggest events of the year beginning this week. We’ll be looking to build a strong lineup for a challenging week at Trump Doral.
The 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship Field
As we mentioned in the preview, World No. 1, 2, and 3 Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy will be the featured names tackling the Blue Monster this week and they will square off against the game’s best, including last year’s champion, Dustin Johnson.
This week marks the very first WGC of 2016 with the field currently consisting of 62 players but that number will most likely grow to around 70.
Certain players like Smylie Kaufman, Fabian Gomez and Graeme McDowell were added off the FedExCup Top 10, which is another way to make the cut into a WGC event.
A full-field list for this week’s event is available on the WGC website.
This Week’s Course Overview
TPC Blue Monster at Trump National Doral measures in at a long 7,543 yards and plays as a par 72. Widely deemed as one of the best courses in South Florida, this track received a $200 million dollar upgrade by presidential candidate and owner Donald Trump after he purchased the venue in 2012.
The fiercest part of this course is the signature 18th hole which features water along the entire left side which has been the final resting place for many golf balls (and even a few clubs).
Long-ball hitters like last year’s champion Dustin Johnson will certainly have an advantage on this 7,500+ yard track but power won’t be the only stat needed to score well here at Trump Doral. We’ll break down more key stats for this week’s WGC-Cadillac in our fantasy notes and picks segments below.
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Weather Forecast for Miami, FL
The weather report is calling for 0% chance of rain during all four rounds, however, wind will play a huge factor here as it always does. Players should expect swirling winds throughout most of the week, especially through the tough 18th hole—a challenge that has decided the outcome of this week’s event more often times than not.
Last Year’s Results from the WGC-Cadillac Championship
Dustin Johnson made his return too the TOUR after a 6-month personal leave by claiming victory on this course in 2015. DJ chased down J.B. Holmes and Bubba Watson to jump ahead and eventually go on to take the trophy. His 3-under-par 69 was good enough even after being down five shots to Holmes going into the final day. All three players were dead even coming down the stretch with six holes to play and DJ was able to capitalize on a Holmes bogey late in the round. Watson fell off the pace with three bogeys over four holes.
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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Thursday (Mar 3, 2016) – Friday (Mar 4, 2016) 2 pm – 6 pm (Golf Channel)
- Saturday (Mar 5, 2016) 12 pm – 3:00 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3 pm – 6 pm EST (CBS)
- Sunday (Mar 6, 2016): 12 pm – 2:00 pm EST (Golf Channel), 2 pm – 6 pm EST (CBS)
- PGA TOUR LIVE
- Thursday (Mar 3, 2016)) – Friday (Mar 4, 2016)): 11 am – 2 pm EST (Featured Groups), 2 pm – 6pm (Featured Holes)
- Saturday (Mar 5, 2016)) – Sunday (Mar 6, 2016)): 9 am – 6 pm EST (Featured Groups)
- Download the iOS app here to view on mobile devices.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WCG-Cadillac this Week
Here’s some exciting news: DraftKings isn’t the only big name in town anymore when it comes to daily fantasy golf action. Now you can jump into player vs. player contests on No Halftime for one-day contests during every round of play. Here’s more info on the latest DFS company to join the party:
- No Halftime Heads-Up Match-Ups: This week we want to introduce you to a new way to play heads-up fantasy golf. No Halftime has created a way for fantasy lovers to play one golfer versus another without salaries and or rosters. For example, you can pick Bubba Watson in Round 1 versus J.B. Holmes does in Round 2. It’s really that simple. You can wager as little as $5 per match or up to $100. Even better, you can challenge a buddy in a private league or create your own public challenge. We’re loving this new app so far and we’ve worked out a special deal for Golficity readers where you can use promo code GOLF at checkout and you’ll get a $10 deposit bonus. Download the iOS app here to get started. No Halftime is a great way to keep the action going well after your rosters have locked come Thursday morning.
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- PGA $400K MIAMI CLASSIC [$100,000 TO 1ST]: This is arguably the best game in town on DraftKings this week. You pay a hefty $300 to enter the extremely limited field of 1480 other players to compete for the first prize of $100,000. If that’s too rich for you, there are plenty of small ticket satellite league entries to help win your way into the Super Millionaire Masters game coming in April.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The WGC-Cadillac Championship
With so many choices many will be left scratching their head and wondering what’s the play this week? Do you go Day or Spieth or McIlroy as your horse? Should you sit Fowler and opt for the hot handed Adam Scott? Will Bubba and DJ stay hot at Doral and will JB Holmes and Reed surprise us again? As with any star-studded WGC field there are enough questions this week to make your head spin. But fear not, we have solutions this week to calm your stress.
Lets start off by analyzing the weather. Although they’re calling for sunny skies, the players know damn well about that nasty wind that will swirl up at Doral. While most players can’t help but drop strokes due to mother nature, there are some other players that stand tall due to their accuracy, ball-striking, and scrambling.
The course plays long, so obviously you’ll need some long hitters on your squad this week. With the first hole now stretching to 608 yards (15 yard increase from 2015), players will be challenge to flex their muscles right out the gate.
The Monster currently ranks as the third hardest in all of the Par 72s on TOUR. Get this, in the last two years, three of the top five on the final leaderboard ranked inside the top four in longest drives for that week. So again, no surprise here as power is key and accuracy is a significant bonus for sure.
Let’s set power aside for a moment and talk about mid/short games. Doral ranks inside the top 10 most challenging tracks in fairways hit, greens in regulation and scrambling last season. Putting is a challenge here as well, which puts the cherry on top of how difficult this course is. So what you should be looking for is a player with a well-rounded and confident golf game heading into Thursday who also has enough distance to hang with this elite field.
So who’s going to lead our roster this week, Day, Spieth, or McIlroy? How about none of them…
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship
We’re going to opt for a new strategy this week and pick two horses instead of one. During these smaller events, you can get premier favorites for lower prices, allowing you to build a stellar roster from top to bottom. The OWGR top-4 are all amazing golfers and any could win this event, but the stats are pointing towards Bubba Watson this week. Former World No. 1 Adam Scott has also proven himself to be the real deal once again this season and his train looks to only be gaining momentum.
Remember, you don’t need a high price tag to win. Spieth was the only player in fifteen events this season to win a tournament coming in as the highest priced player on DraftKings. Therefore, the highest priced player winning is more of the exception than the rule so far in 2016.
Horse Picks: Adam Scott and Bubba Watson
Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 14/1 FPPG: 102.58 GPFP: 120.02 Salary: $11,600): We didn’t put too much emphasis on his FPPG and GPFP stats since he hasn’t played much on the PGA TOUR this year and his 2016 stats still need time to catch up to his recent hot hand. Regardless of the that, he’s coming into Doral (a course he’s played very well on in the past) on the heels of a T2 at Riviera and a win at PGA National. With those two big performances we can all finally stop talking about his ability to use the short putter and right now he looks as confident as the old Adam Scott from 2013. No stranger to top 10s at Doral Adam finished T4 here last year and had a T3 finish in 2013. Scott looks like the real deal, but his accuracy can haunt him. If he’s able to ride that wave of momentum into The Monster look out for another big performance from Scott.
- Scrambling: 81st
- Driving Accuracy: 145th
- Driving Distance: 8th
- Greens-in-Regulation: 17th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 2nd
* Most Notable Stat: Total Strokes Gained: 1st
Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 14/1 FPPG: 98.08 GPFP: 111.81 Salary:$11,400): It’s almost funny seeing Vegas having Watson’s at 13.5/1 while Day and Fowler are projected lower (at 15.5/1 and 19/1 respectively). But look, Watson is the ideal horse for this course. We we tossed up DJ in this spot, but we hate taking defending champs (it’s rare to see guys follow up big wins unless their name is Tiger) and we really like Bubba’s game here at Doral. He’s well rested after a win two weeks ago at Riviera and he’s on a mission to jump into 3rd in the OWGR over Rory McIlroy with a potential win here this week.. Watson finished T2 here in 2014 and finished 3rd last year, carding par or better in last seven rounds. As long as he’s accurate, Bubba’s big distance should leave him with no problem beating up on the field this week. If you’re playing No Halftime this week, a solid match-up would be Bubba Watson in Round 2 versus Adam Scott in Round 1. That match-up is not a bad gamble and we’re sure that someone out there would gladly accept that challenge.
- Scrambling: 84th
- Driving Accuracy: 113th
- Driving Distance: 6th
- Greens-in-Regulation: 6th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 4th
* Most Notable Stat: Ball Striking: 3rd
Mid-Tier: J.B. Holmes, Brooks Koepka, or Hideki Matsuyama?
J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 28/1 FPPG: 84.17 GPFP: 95.97 Salary: $9,400): We think J.B should get a little more love than the 32/1 odds that Vegas gave him this week. After an opening round 62 here last year (a seriously impressive score at Doral), Holmes shot a disappointing 75 on Sunday to fall to Johnson by one stroke. He’s been on a tear lately with two T6s and two T11s in his last four starts and he’s already on pace to keep up with the career-year he posted in 2015. J.B. is an excellent long-ball hitter who can tear up Trump Doral (and he has).
- Scrambling: 27th
- Driving Accuracy: 148th
- Driving Distance: 3rd
- Greens-in-Regulation: 83rd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 6th
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 4th
Low Tier Picks (2): Justin Thomas, Graeme McDowell, and/or Danny Willet?
Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 79.89 GPFP: 88.68 Salary: $8,300): We certainly disagree with Vegas 50/1 prediction for Thomas and have to think the only reason for the long odds is the strength of the field he’ll be competing against this week. It’s his first appearance here at Trump Doral, but if last week’s T3 was any indication of how he fares on a windy, water riddled, Florida course, then we may see something magical from him this week. Thomas carded red figures all four day at PGA National and was rapidly climbing the leaderboard before The Bear Trap put on the breaks. This kid is super long off of the tee, finds plenty of GIRs, and knows how to make birdies (currently 8th on TOUR in Birdie Average).
- Scrambling: 163rd
- Driving Accuracy: 132nd
- Driving Distance: 26th
- Greens-in-Regulation: 40th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 21st
* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 6th
Danny Willett (Golficity Odds 46/1 FPPG: 76.08 GPFP: 92.06 Salary: $7,900): Now here’s a name you probably haven’t used even once this season, but you have to trust us on this one. In the last ten months Willett has two wins among seven top fives finishes and has Top 20s in last four starts in WGC Championships. Last year he notched a T12 with a final round 68 here at Doral. He’s an overall solid ball striker with excellent control which should help him stay out of trouble on this tricky course.
*Willett is a European TOUR player with no stats recorded on the PGA TOUR yet this season. His European TOUR stats can be found here.
- Scrambling: NA
- Driving Accuracy: NA
- Driving Distance: NA
- Greens-in-Regulation: NA
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: NA
* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: NA
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship
Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 60.60 GPFP: 48.48 Salary: $7,400): Na has always been a silent sleeper who can put up some quality fantasy points when you need it. Although he probably stands no chance to win outright, he does show plenty of promice to rack up some quality points by notching a Top 10 or better against his bargain basement $7,400 price tag. Remember, Na already has four Top 10s on the season, and although not long off of the tee, he does put the ball in play and knows how to scramble (22nd) and putt (12th: Putting Average). On top of that Na has proven that he can play well here at Doral as evidenced by his T9 here last year.
- Scrambling: 22nd
- Driving Accuracy: 72nd
- Driving Distance: 168th
- Greens-in-Regulation: 45th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 14th
* Most Notable Stat: Birdie Average: 9th
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship
Smylie Kaufman (Golficity Odds 80/1 FPPG: 74.36 GPFP: 89.24 Salary: $6,500): Kaufman might be a sleeper this week but the youngster is also a PGA TOUR winner with five Top 25s in 11 events. This is his very first WGC event and visit to Trump Doral, and you know how much we love first timers’ ability to sneak up on fantasy opponents. He has a long driver in the bag and a very strong putter to boot. At this price tag, you can pick up Kaufman to make room for most of the guys above. Keep in mind, Smylie is a ‘super sleeper’ for sure but if he brings his A game he’ll give your roster a serious boost against his low price tag this week.
- Scrambling: 143rd
- Driving Accuracy: 182nd
- Driving Distance: 48th
- Greens-in-Regulation: 61st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 52nd
* Most Notable Stat: Putting Average: 23rd
Sample DraftKings Roster with Scott and Watson
Sample DraftKings Roster with Watson
Sample DraftKings Roster with Scott
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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Honda Classic
- Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 10/1 ): T6 ($211,975)
- Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 18/1): MC
- Kevin Kisner (Golficity Odds 28/1): T70 ($12,139)
- Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 40/1): T14 ($97,600)
- Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 48/1): T61 ($13,115)
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Honda Classic
- John Huh (Golficity Odds 70/1): T14 ($97,600)
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Honda Classic
- Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 75/1): WD
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Flickr
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