Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The Honda Classic

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for The Honda Classic 2016

The Honda Classic 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Preview

Following an exciting finish to the “West Coast Swing” last week at Riviera Country Club, the PGA TOUR members now head to sunny Florida for the Honda Classic.  The event was first established in 1972 and has been a staple on the Tour ever since.

In total, they have used seven different courses to host the tournament with PGA National Golf Club in Palm Beach Gardens being the venue since 2007.  The par-70, 7,158-yard course always provides golfers with one of the toughest tests of the young season, especially when they are faced with a trio of difficult holes dubbed “The Bear Trap” to finish off their rounds.

The tough conditions of this course have resulted in some of the lower scores seen during the year, and as the players face a major golf tournament layout, the winner has failed to reach double digits under par in all but two of the visits to PGA National in the nine years since its inception.  With such difficult scoring here it should come as no surprise that there have frequently been vicious fights at the finish and the last two times out have resulted in a playoff.  Before that, the previous seven years yielded four one-stroke victories, two by two strokes, and a single dominating performance by Camilo Villegas in 2010 when he outpaced the runner-up (Anthony Kim) by five strokes.

Last year, Padraig Harrington kept the domination by non-American players at this event going with a playoff victory over youngster Daniel Berger.  It was Harrington’s second win in this tournament, but just his first at this course.  His score of six-under-par matched Berger’s in regulation and a Monday finish resulted in an international player taking home the trophy for the sixth time since 2007.  Rory McIlroy (2012) and Ernie Els (2008) are another pair of elite players from outside of the U.S. who have been able to lock down this event since coming to PGA National in 2007.

The field will be strong once again this week while being led by the strength of OWGR No. 3 golfer Rory McIlroy and No. 5 Rickie Fowler.  Those top dogs will be followed by No. 9 Patrick Reed and No. 10 Branden Grace from the top-10 along with another nine players from the top-25.  Besides McIlroy and Grace, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, and Shane Lowry will be looking to keep the solid run of big showings by out-of-towners.  Also among them will be No. 20 Phil Mickelson who has been playing some great golf as of late and will attempt to continue that high level of play this week in an event where he has done no worse than 11th over his last three attempts.

With all the big names coming to Florida, it is hard to imagine that a golfer facing big odds will take home the glory, but the young 2016 season is no stranger to surprises.  Below are some of our top sleeper and long-shot selections to watch out for as the week progresses as they could surpass expectations and surprise a few people along the way.

[membership level=”0″]

The Honda Classic 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Report

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

The Honda Classic 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Webb Simpson – Vegas Odds 75/1: Simpson is certainly already an accomplished golfer at the young age of 30, winning four times in his 193 career events while making it to the weekend in 104 attempts over 125 outings (83%) since 2011.  He hasn’t been in the winner’s circle since 2014, but did have a runner-up finish last season and is already 4-for-5 in cuts made this year while getting into the top-25 three times.  His last three performances have resulted in a 17th or better and he has now hit the GIR better than 72% of the time in four of his five tourneys.  Simpson has not played here since 2011, when he finished in 24th, but his game fits the course well thanks to his ability to get on greens in regulation (74.07%, 10th on TOUR) and his amazing ball striking (1.213 strokes gained tee-to-green, 15th on TOUR).  Look for Simpson to have another solid outing in his return to this venue.

Jonas Blixt – Vegas Odds 80/1: Blixt has played in this event just twice, missing the cut in 2013 and improving with a 31st last year.  He may not have the best run of results here, but has been on fire of late and is playing some of his best golf in recent outings.  The two-time PGA TOUR winner started out the 2016 campaign with early exits in five of his first six tournaments, but has since gone 3-for-4 in cuts made and has been able to rake in two top-sixes.  Blixt should be running hot after coming in solo third most recently at the AT&T Pro-Am where he shot 15-under-par behind putting 0.884 strokes better than the field.  Overall, Blixt’s body of work does not look to warrant him a top spot here, but he is an experienced veteran with wins under his belt and if he is striking the ball with confidence he will perform with the best in the game.

Scott Piercy – Vegas Odds 125/1: Even though Piercy has high odds in this event, he still ranks in the top-50 in both the OWGR and FedExCup standings coming into this week.  Also, Piercy is the owner of three PGA TOUR trophies since 2011 and is coming off a 2015 season in which he finished a career-best 22nd in the final standings behind top-25s in 33% of his outings.  Over his last four visits to this course, the San Diego University grad has been able to make the cut three times, but has really been competitive just once; finishing in 6th back in 2009.  He comes into this week with a flawless 7-for-7 mark at getting to the weekend this season and has done worse than 35th just once.  Piercy ranks in the top-50 in both driving distance (299.8 yards per, 39th on TOUR) and GIR (71.63%, 43rd on TOUR) and will continue to give himself opportunities at low scores, making his Vegas odds this week too low for such a solid competitor.

Adam Hadwin – Vegas Odds 125/1: This will be Hadwin’s second visit to PGA National after he was able to come in at 31st last year with a score of three-over-par despite shooting six-over on the par-4s.  He is playing much better golf this year than last, though, and has made his last five cuts while jumping into the top-17 three times during that stretch.  Hadwin’s key to success is certainly his putting, where he ranks fourth on TOUR with 0.985 strokes-gained on the short grass, and if he can keep that part of his game going he will always be in the running for a good week.  They say you drive for show and putt for dough, which is exactly what you can expect Hadwin to accomplish this week in Palm Beach Gardens.

Tyrone Van Aswegen – Vegas Odds 200/1: Which country besides the United States boasts the most winners here since 2007?  That answer would be South America.  Ernie Els opened the gate for these players and won here in 2008 while being followed by Rory Sabbatini in 2011.  Van Aswegen will look to join them with a big sleeper victory in Florida this week, and while he has a mere one top-10 finish in 56 PGA TOUR events, he is playing well this season and has seemed to really improve over the past couple of years.  After making the cut in 23-of-44 events (52%) in the last two seasons, he has gone 10-for-11 (91%) this year and is coming off a tie for 20th last week among the tough field at the Northern Trust Open.  Van Aswegen played here once in 2014, finishing in 24th, and will look to improve on that spot as he gains confidence with his game going forward.

Need a few more options to fill up your roster?  Remember to check out our new fantasy predictions stats page for Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points, Price Per Fantasy Point, and more info on every player in this week’s field!

[/membership]

Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for The Honda Classic here.

Cover photo via Flickr