Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 Northern Trust Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 Northern Trust Open

2016 Northern Trust Open Fantasy Sleeper Preview

The Northern Trust Open began 90 years ago and is one of the longest standing events on the PGA TOUR.  It is held at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California and boasts 7,298 yards of par-71 golf.  The competition here has been great in past years and some big golfers have etched their names in the trophy over the past decade.  Twice that honor went to Phil Mickelson (2008, 2009) who has had consecutive solid outings as of late, but allowed Vaughn Taylor to come back from six strokes behind on Sunday to pull down the AT&T Pro-AM win.  Other recent big winners at the Northern Trust Open include Bubba Watson (2014), Bill Haas (2012), and Adam Scott (2005).

There always seems to be some tight competition towards the top of the leaderboard when it comes to this event, and going back to 2000 there have been seven playoff wins and another five that were decided by a single stroke.  Much of the reason for this is because of the general lack of scoring that is to be had with the winner being better than 15-under-par just once since 2008.  Also, as per usual, the victor in this early-season tourney generally hails from the United States as Australian Aaron Baddeley (2011) is the sole winner from outside of the US since 2007.

Last year, James Hahn’s score of six-under was good enough to get him into extra holes with the elite duo of Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey.  The virtually unknown Hahn birdied two of the three holes during the playoffs and earned his first PGA TOUR victory.  Amazingly, another four players finished within one shot of the lead in this one, and they were some very impressive golfers as well.  Both Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia ended with a bogey on 18 to drop out of contention while Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley failed to do what was necessary to get just one more stroke and give themselves a chance.

The final stop of the West Coast Swing will certainly bring the big names once again as Official World Golf Rankings No. 1 and No.3 golfers, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy, meet up for the first time on TOUR this season and will be joined by another three players (Bubba Watson, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson) from the OWGR top-10.  Overall, this will be one of the strongest fields of the year as that core four golfers are going to be competing with the likes of No. 12 Hideki Matusyama, No. 18 Sergio Garcia, No. 19 Adam Scott, No. 22 J.B. Holmes, No. 24 Jimmy Walker, and No. 25 Kevin Na from the top-25.

Hahn’s win last year along with Taylor’s last week prove that production and victories can come from the unlikeliest of sources.  This week could once again have some surprises in store so let’s take a look at a few fantasy long-shots and sleepers who could pull of yet another big upset this week.

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2016 Northern Trust Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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2016 Northern Trust Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Brendan Steele – Veags Odds 60/1: Steele had the best overall year of his career in 2015, finishing 50th in the FedExCup standings after going 20-for-24 (83%) in cuts made.  He is looking to improve on that success this year and is getting it done so far with a ranking of 35th thanks to three top-25s in his first seven outings; including a third-place finish at the CIMB Classic where he shot 24-under-par.  He should also be able to continue his run of solid finishes at the Northern Trust Open, coming into the week with four consecutive cuts made here and doing very well with a 10th and a 14th over the past two seasons.  Steele will put himself in nice position on this par-71 course with his 306.2 yard average drive (19th on TOUR) which has allowed him to hit 71.53% of GIR (52nd on TOUR).  This 32-year-old is turning into one of the more consistent players out there and will be looking to add a trophy to his 2011 victory at the Valero Texas Open.

Keegan Bradley – Vegas Odds 70/1: We have written before about Bradley as sleeper this season and that’s because we think he has a few more wins coming in the near future.  This is one event where he has also torn it up in the past with an average finish of 10.5th over the past four years.  He has not won the big check here, but does own a fourth in 2015 and a runner-up performance in 2012.  The three-time PGA TOUR winner has not taken down a tournament since 2012, but has still showed up consistently as evidenced by his three runners-up and his made cut percentage of 78% over his 134 career events.  His biggest problem of late however has been his un-Keegan-like inconsistency as Bradley has only made a mere 3-of-6 cuts in the early going of this season.  It’s not all bad news for him in 2016 though, because Keegan does do well when he gets to the weekend, as seen in his 24th at the Waste Management Open and an 8th at the OHL Classic.  He is a long hitter (301.7 yards per, 35th on TOUR) and has no trouble getting on the green (72.53% GIR, 42nd on TOUR), but has struggled with his putter since the rule banning anchored putters came into effect.  As he likely becomes more comfortable with this part of his game, results should follow.

John Huh – Vegas Odds 90/1: Unlike most of the players on this list, Huh has not done well at this course in the past, missing the cut twice in three attempts and coming in at 35th on his other try.  The difference this year is that Huh already has three top-10 finishes in his first nine events after having a total of four such finishes over the last three seasons.  He is playing the best golf of his career and is quite hot right now with a tie for eighth at the Farmers Insurance Open and a tie for sixth at the Waste Management Open in his last two outings.  Besides the CareerBuilder Challenge, Huh has gained a total of 4.014 strokes on the field in his other four events since the RSM Classic and that aspect of the game will of course prove important at Riviera Country Club.  His overall resume does not warrant him much of a look, but he currently has the hot hand and when a guy is feeling it in golf it’s sometimes wise to come along for the ride.

Luke Donald – Vegas Odds 100/1: Donald is a former stud in the golf world and over his 293 career events has earned himself over $33 million behind five PGA TOUR victories while also adding another seven wins overseas.  Donald’s best days are behind him, though, as he has not won a tournament since 2012 and has only two top-three showings in the past three years.  With that said, he has been able to adjust his game a bit and is 4-for-5 in cuts made this year on the PGA TOUR while placing in the top-30 in two of his past three times out.  He once was the runner-up here and has tons of knowledge of the course with all the years of playing here, so if he can find his elite putting once again, he has a good chance at the best finish of his year so far.

K.J. Choi – Vegas Odds 125/1: Choi is another player who is past his prime, but is still playing very competitively despite being 45-years-old.  He’s enjoyed a fantastic career so far with eight PGA TOUR wins and is having a small resurgence this season; nearly doubling his earnings from last year thanks to a runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open.  He also matched his two top-25s from last year when he tied for 17th at the Waste Management Open with a score of six-under-par and looks to have a little bit still left in the tank.  Choi has been no world beater at this course, but has made the cut in each of the past eight seasons while owning four top-12s.  He may not have the firepower that wins tournaments these days, but he is accurate off the tee (68.77%, 27th on TOUR) and has a deadly short game which has resulted in him being ranked ninth in scrambling (70.47%), 11th in sand save percentage (67.31%), and 49th in strokes-gained putting (0.381).  These factors should get him to the weekend and with his experience he could surprise some folks.

Need a few more options to fill up your roster?  Remember to check out our new fantasy predictions stats page for Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points, Price Per Fantasy Point, and more info on every player in this week’s field!

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2016 Northern Trust Open here.

Cover photo via Flickr