Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Northern Trust Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Northern Trust Open
2016 Northern Trust Open Preview
This week’s event will mark the conclusion of the West Coast Swing and will feature Rory McIlory’s first PGA TOUR appearance in the new year. Noticeably absent from the Northern Trust Open will be Tiger Woods, who still shows no signs of returning to the Tour any time soon.
With or without Woods, fantasy golf is in full swing this week and the prize pools are beginning to grow. Hints of more huge fantasy contests for Masters Week are already beginning to surface on sites like DraftKings and we can’t wait to get in on the action.
Speaking of which, players in smaller fantasy contests will begin to see opportunities to win their ways into the big games over the next few weeks, so be on the lookout for that.
This week’s Northern Trust Open will carry a $6.8 million purse along with 500 FedExCup points and will also mark the cutoff for the top 50 in the OWGR to qualify for the WGC-Cadillac Championship held in Miami next month at Trump Doral. Top 50 cut line players currently include Robert Streb and Chris Kirk, two guys who have been surprisingly quiet in fantasy over the last few weeks.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week Vaughn Taylor surprised us all with his “Cinderella story” win at Pebble Beach and anyone lucky enough to throw a dart at that sleeper most likely saw a nice payout last weekend.
We’re now 13 events into the season and after this week our average weekly fantasy earnings is just over $940,000. We’ll be looking to get that number back over our usual $1 million per week benchmark at this week’s Northern Trust Open.
Spieth was our horse pick for last week’s Pro-Am and his lackluster play at Pebble was a bit of a surprise to us all. Jordan finished T17 at -7 under versus Jason Day who finished at a 9-under T11. We chose Spieth over Day due to his better performance this far in 2016 and were shocked to see both of the heavy favorites fail to even crack the top 10 last week.
Another one of our top 5 picks last week was JB Holmes, who finished with a respectable T11, and racked up some quality DraftKings points along the way.
Yes we opted to leave Mickelson on the bench given the incredibly strong field last week and regardless of not picking him we were still happy to see the veteran lefty knock on the door last week. Phil proved that he still has some gas left in the tank and we feel that he’s due for win in 2016, we just can’t tell exactly when that will happen yet. Mickelson is now on a 50-event streak win-less streak but if you had him on your roster at Pebble Beach his second place finish should have scored you some nice fantasy points.
It’s time we get back on the winning train this week and with a lineup like what we’re seeing for the Northern Trust Open, it certainly can happen. With 13 events in the books, here’s a list of our winners picked year-to-date.
- Justin Thomas (CIMB Classic)
- Kevin Kisner (RSM Classic)
- Jordan Spieth (Hyundai TOC)
- Fabian Gomez (Sony Open)
- Jason Dufner (Career Builder Challenge)
** Emiliano Grillo was our Sleeper Report pick for the Frys.com Open (Winner).
The 2016 Northern Trust Open Field
OWGR No. 1 Jordan Spieth and No.3 Rory McIlroy will form a heavy hitting 1-2 punch this week as they join up with three other players out of world’s top 10 to play in the final West Coast Swing event of the year. To make fantasy picks even tougher this week, the field will include 15 of the top 30 in the world and will also welcome Sergio Garcia back to the PGA TOUR who, like Rory, is also making his U.S. debut.
Among these names will be past event winners like Bubba Watson (2014), Bill Haas (2012), Charles Howell III (2007), and Adam Scott (2005). Other all-star caliber names this week include Dustin Johnson, Jason Dufner, Billy Horschel, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, JB Holmes, Paul Casey and Kevin Na.
Charl Schwartzel will also be in attendance for his first US appearance this season coming in fresh off of his win on the European TOUR last week. If you sprinkle in some of the younger guns likes Justin Thomas, Jamie Lovemark, Peter Malnati, and Tony Finau, it makes for guaranteed excitement at Rivera CC this week.
For more, here’s a look at this week’s full field.
The Course
Riviera Country Club measures in at a healthy 7,322 yards and will play as a par 71 this week. Since its opening in 1927, RCC remains as one of the toughest tests on TOUR.
Remember the par-3 sixth with the infamous bunker in the middle of the green? There are certainly enough PGA TOUR players who can’t forget it! Along with that notorious hole comes the always entertaining 10th hole which some believe to be the the best drivable par-4 in golf.
Plenty of guys on TOUR have noted this event to be one their favorites on the schedule and it usually makes for an exciting week, especially when you combine a tough track with a very strong field. We’ll dive more into player and course-specific stats for this event in our Fantasy Notes section below.
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Weather Forecast for Pacific Palisades, CA
It will be nothing but sunny skies and beautiful weather at Riviera Country Club this week. There’s a minor threat of rain on Thursday, but delays are highly unlikely. Additionally, the boys won’t be situated on a Pebble Beach style cliff course so wind should not be a factor at all this week.
This course is tough enough and these guys are going to need to the best weather that they can get.
Last Year’s Results from the Northern Trust Open
Anything can happen on a tough Riviera Country Club track and James Hahn proved just that in 2015. Last year Hahn went toe-to-toe in three playoff holes before closing the door on Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey.
With his 69 in round 4, Hahn found himself heading to sudden death with two marquee names and quickly gave himself some much needed momentum. All three guys made pars on the first hole of the playoff before moving to the aforementioned drivable par-4 10th. Casey missed his birdie and was eliminated as DJ and Hahn moved onto a par 3 which ended it all after Hahn made a 23-footer for birdie and DJ missed his 12-footer to settle for a par. The win marked Hahn’s first in a PGA TOUR event.
[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzBhk8XWPXg&end=153&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]
This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Thursday (Feb 18, 2016) – Friday (Feb 19, 2016) 5 pm – 8 pm (Golf Channel)
- Saturday (Feb 20, 2016) – Sunday (Feb 21, 2016): 1 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3 pm – 6 pm EST (CBS)
- Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM
- Thursday (Feb 18, 2016) – Friday (Feb 19, 2016) 2 pm – 8 pm pm EST
- Saturday (Feb 20, 2016) 1 pm – 6 pm EST
- Sunday (Feb 21, 2016): 2 pm – 7 pm EST
- PGA TOUR LIVE
- Thursday (Feb 18, 2016) – Friday (Feb 19, 2016): 10 am – 5pm EST (Featured Groups), 5 pm – 8pm (Featured Holes)
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Northern Trust Open this Week
The all expense-paid “Tiger Jam” trip to Vegas by DraftKings is still available! What an awesome prize that would be, but it’s also certainly not your only option this week.
- DRAFTKINGS PGA $100K HYBRID [3 ENTRY LIMIT, $100K GTD]: For just a 3 dollar entry, you can take on a field size of 38,000 players with a shot at winning the $10,000 first prize. Better yet, you don’t have to be perfect in this one as you can double your money all the way down to 7850th place.
- DRAFTKINGS WIN A VIP GOLF TRIP TO TIGER JAM IN LAS VEGAS: According to DraftKings, this contest will award the winner a trip for two to the Tiger Woods Foundation’s Tiger Jam event in Las Vegas taking place from April 28th to May 1st. The trip includes three night’s stay, $1,000 towards airfare, and a non-stop weekend of golf related events. The prize also comes with two rounds of golf at Shadow Creek golf course (by far the best course in Vegas), as well as a photo opportunity with Tiger Woods, parties, concerts, and much more. Not bad for a $27 entry-fee event!
As we mentioned last week, DraftKings is still the place to play fantasy golf—that is, at least until Fan Dual finally decides to step in. But if you want to try your luck in some less crowded contests with lower payouts it’s worth giving Fantasy Feud a look this week.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2016 Northern Trust Open
There’s no doubt that this track is a tough test for even the game’s elite. However, despite the challenges there are a few ‘easy’ opportunities out there that players need to take advantage of if they want to come home with a win this week. For example, the 1st hole is a short 503 yard par-5 that must yield a birdies or better. Par or worse here will knock players down the leaderboard fast so precision is key on this hole—especially if it’s the opening hole setting the pace for the round. In fact, the trio of par-5s at Rivera CC are all very scorable so we’ll be putting an emphasis on Par-5 Scoring Stats this week.
On the other end of it, players going off the 10th hole will have a drivable par-4 and there’s no doubt that the Tour’s long-ball hitters (we’re looking at you Bubba) will use their length off the tee as a huge advantage here.
Accuracy off the tee and distance are obviously very key on this fairly long track and the players who execute an excellent scrambling strategy here should fair pretty well. The greens are tricky here with plenty of putting surfaces offering up treterous double-tier surfaces so look for putting to separate the men from the boys this weekend.
You can’t pick both Rory and Jordan in a salary cap league this week, but when it’s all said and done we don’t think you can go wrong either way. We do however like one over the other and there is a big reason why (more on that in a minute). Good luck this week!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Northern Trust Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Northern Trust Open
(Note: Keep in mind most of these 2016 statistics are a result of only one or two events for most of these players and are therefore limited in their predictive capacity.)
Horse Pick: Jordan Spieth or Rory McIlroy?
Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 6/1 FPPG: 83.00 GPFP: 73.87 Salary:$13,200): Why do these guys have the same DraftKings salary? Simple answer, Vegas has McIlroy and Spieth as a coin flip this week…and we agree. There’s no doubt Spieth will play well here at Riviera this week, but when lined up toe-to-toe we simply feel that Rory is the better pick on this track based on his stats. Ignore Rory’s low FPPG and GPFP for this one, remember, he hasn’t played on the PGA TOUR yet this calendar year so the stats algorithms don’t have enough data to work with yet. His European Tour stats however are pretty solid—that’s where Rory has been playing most of his rounds these last few months. That said, with McIlory you’re getting a guy on your squad with an average drive over 300 yards and he currently ranks 1st on European Tour in Stroke Average at 69.28 and 3rd in GIR at 80.6%. For those of you who aren’t following the European Tour closely Rory won 2015 Race to Dubai and kicked off 2016 with T3 (Abu Dhabi) and T6 (Dubai).
- Par-5 Scoring Average: 49th
- Scrambling: 83rd
- Putting Average: 61st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 1st
* Most Notable Stat: GIR Percentage: 1st
Mid Tier I: Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson or J.B. Holmes?
Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 93.03 GPFP: 89.57 Salary: $10,400): Between these there mid-tier guys we like Bubba given his accuracy and raw power (plus he carries a lower price tag than an inconsistent DJ and Bubba has a victory here at Riviera CC). Watson missed 54-hole cut at last week’s AT&T, but you can’t really hang too much on his week long hangout with buddy Mark Wahlberg. Bubba is back to business this week and returns to a course he’s comfortable with. Don’t forget that he followed up his 2014 win here with a top 20 finish last year (T14). A lot of players may opt to do a Rose-Watson 1-2 punch leaving the big two on the bench, which can certainly be a smart option. Regardless of how you approach it, we like Bubba at Riviera this week.
- Par-5 Scoring Average: 35th
- Scrambling: 165th
- Putting Average: 193rd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 7th
* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 4th
Mid-Tier II: Matt Kuchar, Kevin Na, or Bill Haas?
Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 28/1 FPPG: 82.08 GPFP: 65.67 Salary: $9,200): Vegas has him at a 33/1 but we feel a little stronger about Billy Haas this week. The 2012 Northern Trust Open winner already has three Top 10s in six events played this season and has proven success on this course (4-6 in cuts made with a win, T3, and T12 here). Although Na has had good results YTD and is the much cheaper route we simply like Haas at RCC as a premier and (most likely) overlooked mid-tier pick.
- Par-5 Scoring Average: 49th
- Scrambling: 5th
- Putting Average: 136th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 54th
* Most Notable Stat: Driving Accuracy: 3rd
Low Tier Picks (2): Danny Lee, Freddie Jacobson, and/or Charles Howell III?
Danny Lee (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 72.07 GPFP: 57.66 Salary: $7,800): Well, Vegas has him at a 80/1 but Danny’s been posting some terrific numbers lately so we like him closer to 40/1 this week. We’re ignoring Freddie Jacobson’s three top fives in three of his last four starts and we’re focusing instead on on Danny’s consistency. So far he’s 7-for-7 this season with a PGA TOUR win under his belt and although he doesn’t stand out in any one statistical area we like his overall game over Freddie this week on a tough Riviera. Lee’s best attributes this week include the fact that he’s super accurate off of the tee and he brings along a superb short game.
- Par-5 Scoring Average: 103rd
- Scrambling: 74th
- Putting Average: 47th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 22nd
* Most Notable Stat: Driving Accuracy: 21st
Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 42/1 FPPG: 82.33 GPFP: 103.74 Salary: $7,600): So get this, CH3 has made 9 of 9 cuts so far this season and has a T24 or better finishes in all but one event. Those stats along make him a fantasy golf warrior with a 82.33 FPPG due to his amazing ability to make it to Sunday every single week. He ranks in the Top 10 in scoring average and 3-putt avoidance, both areas which could mean solid results for him this week. You’re going to need guys like this in the low $7,000 range if you want to fit Rory or Jordan on your squad and CH3 is an excellent option this week at Riviera.
- Par-5 Scoring Average: 26th
- Scrambling: 34th
- Putting Average: 44th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 23rd
* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 9th
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Northern Trust Open
Chris Kirk (Golficity Odds 60/1 FPPG: 62.86 GPFP: 50.20 Salary: $7,000): The 2015 President’s Cup hero, although inconsistent as of late, still has plenty of potential to play well on this course. Kirk currently sits in the number 50 spot in the OWGR and has to stay there or better to the cut for Doral in a couple of weeks. Although he has yet to make any big waves this season Chris has quietly made 5 of 6 cuts and finished T25 twice. His putting stats don’t scream ‘buy!’ but that’s why he’s sleeper. If Kirk can kick his game into gear this week you’ll certainly see him sneak his way up the leaderboard.
- Par-5 Scoring Average: 80th
- Scrambling: 52nd
- Putting Average: 192nd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 58th
* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: 58th
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Northern Trust Open
Vaughn Taylor (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 84.25 GPFP: 110.10 Salary: $6,800): We’re not picking VT strictly based on last week’s win. Instead, we’ve simply lost faith in Fabian Gomez after he missed two straight cuts following his victory and Taylor looks like the better pick in this price range. Our GPFP fantasy stats have him sitting pretty in both the Putting and Accuracy categories (8.30/10 in each) but you can’t put much weight into his current FPPG since he earned 132.5 last week and only played three times this year. Regardless of the stats, if you watched him play last week you saw what this PGA TOUR veteran is capable of. Needless to say, we like him again this week to add on some more fantasy points for your rosters.
(Vaughn only has stats from Web.com)
- Par-5 Scoring Average: NA
- Scrambling: NA
- Putting Average: NA
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: NA
* Most Notable Stat: NA
Sample DraftKings Roster with Rory McIlroy
Sample DraftKings Roster without Rory McIlroy
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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Jordan Spieth: T26 ($72,800)
- Brandt Snedeker: T35 ($33,775)
- JB Holmes: T11 ($143,500)
- Danny Lee: T30 ($44,450)
- Jason Bohn: T58 ($15,610)
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- James Hahn: MC
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Willie McGirt: MC
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Northern Trust Open with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Flickr
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