Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Shell Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Shell Houston Open

2016 Shell Houston Open Fantasy Preview

With one final stop before the Masters kicks off next Monday, some of the boys of the PGA TOUR will be getting in one final tune-up before the season’s first major (not to mention the first DraftKings Multi-Million Dollar contest of the year) while others will be fighting for a last-minute invitation to Augusta National.

This week’s headliner for the 2016 Shell Houston Open will be Jordan Spieth who, coincidentally just lost his No. 1 OWGR spot to the hot-handed Jason Day.  Spieth’s game has looked largely dormant since his early-season victory at the Hyundai TOC in January.  Now, as he begins his chase for the ultimate title defense at Augusta, Spieth will look to regain enough confidence in his game.  He rolled into the Match Play event without a top-15 finish anywhere since late January and now finds himself with a giant question mark hovering over him.

We’re sure the field in Houston will be thrilled to not see the two Aussie superstars in the lineup this week as Day and Scott have each notched two victories in the last four consecutive events.  Needless to say, there are plenty of hot hitters in this week’s field that can make a run at Golf Club of Houson and we’ll be looking at all possibilities in our fantasy picks segment below.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

We ended up losing last week’s Horse Pick to the cut line after William McGirt posted two disappointing rounds of 73 in Puerto Rico.  However, in total, five of our seven picks stayed around for the weekend with our best finishers being our Sleeper Pick Will MacKenzie (T8) and Alex Cjeka (T11).   So far this season (19 events) our total made-cuts are 97 out of 133 picks, and those numbers include our two weekly “sleeper” selections.

Bogey-free @mavandnash is at the top of his game @PuertoRicoOpen pic.twitter.com/LWyZRrZsYO

— PUMA GOLF (@PUMAGolf) March 24, 2016

Additional success last week came from our Tuesday Sleeper Report which highlighted Nick Taylor who ended the week with a T5 finish as he dramatically outplayed his 80/1 Vegas Odds.   Of the five picks noted in our Tuesday Sleeper Report, only player missed the cut last week and all of those selections came off of 50/1 or greater Vegas Odds.

There’s no doubt that the Puerto Rico Open was a tough event to pick given that all of the PGA TOUR’s top names were of in Austin for the WGC-Dell Match Play, but this week things should shape up nicely as the PGA TOUR returns to its normal schedule in Humble, TX for one final tuneup before Augusta.

The 2016 Shell Houston Open Open Field

The field gets a little more robust in Houston this week but thankfully for the rest of the lineup Adam Scott and Jason Day are sitting this one out as they prepare for The Masters.

Now ranked World No. 2 after Day’s 2-week triumph, Jordan Spieth will try to get back into the spotlight by heading up a lineup of PGA TOUR studs including Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and Henrik Stenson.  If you recall back in 2015, Spieth took a devastating Houston Open playoff loss into Augusta where he claimed his first Major Championship (and Green Jacket).

 
Along with these top names, you also have a handful of other fantasy studs to check out this week including Jimmy Walker, Brendan Steeler, Charl Schwartzel, and last year’s winner J.B. Holmes.

For more, here is the full field for this week’s She’ll Houston Open.

This Week’s Course Overview

Golf Club of Houston (Tournament Course) measures in at a widely-long 7,441 yards and will play as a par 72 this week.  This prestigious Texas track celebrates its 10th year as the final pit-stop before The Masters and believe it or not, it presents itself very similarly to Augusta National’s setup.

The course was built out of dense woods right within Houston’s suburbs and course designer Rees Jones made sure to  preserve the natural lakes and wetlands throughout the design.  This course is known for its ultra-fast greens with a Stimpmeter reading of 13 and presents a handful of challenges from the first to last hole.

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Weather Forecast for Humble, TX

Thunderstorms threaten the area for Round 1 but we can expect sunshine and 80 degrees the rest of the week.

For many years now, GC of Houston has ranked the hardest golf course on TOUR in scrambling from the rough.  The early week rain should make this rough a little tougher and could put a little more emphasis on control and accuracy.  Expect a gorgeous weekend in Texas before the troops head to Augusta next week for our first Major of the season.

Last Year’s Results from the Shell Houston Open

Last year’s SHO featured an exciting finish when J.B. Holmes edged into sudden death after carding a 64 on Sunday.  Holmes went to extra-holes with Jordan Spieth and Johnson Wagner and ended up slamming the door on the second playoff hole.

Holmes had everyone on 59-watch early on Sunday after putting down nine birdies in his first 12 holes but ended up finishing one-stroke short of the course record of 63.  After waiting almost three hours to see if anyone would beat out Holmes,  Spieth finally came in carding a 70 which matched J.B.’s event total 16-under 272 and Wagner dropped a 25-footer for birdie to make his way into the playoff party.

Here’s how all of the excitement ended that Sunday:

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLYuHiclHqg&end=178&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (Mar 31, 2016) – Friday (April 1, 2016) 4 pm- 7 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday (April 2, 2016) – Sunday (April 3, 2016) 1 pm – 3 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3 pm – 6pm EST (NBC)

• Mobile Broadcasts (PGA TOUR LIVE APP)
  • Thursday-Friday, 8:30 a.m.-3 p.m. ET (Featured Groups), 3-6 p.m. (Featured Holes).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Shell Houston Open this Week

DraftKings is now offering a cool bonus for those who have yet to try out (you know, in case you’ve been hiding under a rock).  When new users make their first deposit on DraftKings, they’ll instantly receive a free entry to any $3 buy-in event.  To make it even better, there is a fun $3 entry game available this week for a chance to get a free seat at the big $4 million game next week.

• LAST SHOT: PGA $4M FANTASY GOLF MILLIONAIRE SUPER SATELLITE:  This 13,416 player game will pay out $35,000.00 in total prizes to the top 1750 finishing positions.  All you have to do is finish in 1,750th place or better and you’ll get a free ride in the PGA Fantasy Golf Millionaire Event on 4/7/16.  Not sure about you, but we can’t wait for the first big multi-million dollar event of the 2016 season!

• NO-HALFTIME: The No-Halftime app has been catching quite a buzz lately as members have been telling us about their recent victories.  The concept is simple, just create a match-up like “Jim Furyk during Round 1 will have more fantasy points versus Phil Mickelson in Round 2.”  You then set a wager from $5 to $100 and wait for the challenge to be accepted.  You can also accept challenges already created by other No-Halftime users.  No-Halftime is an excellent place to keep the contests going after “traditional” fantasy lineups lock on Thursday.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Shell Houston Open

The ultimate question on everyone’s mind this week is, “Do you trust Jordan Spieth’s game right now?”

We get it, some of these guys are thinking Masters and some are thinking Shell Houston Open.  No matter how you shuffle the deck we feel that there is no clear cut winner this week in Texas.  Top guys like Spieth and Fowler have weakened and shown signs of inconsistency, and some of the no-namers have stepped up their games to try and get into the spotlight (especially with a Masters invite on the table).  With that said, let’s try to uncover the recipe for success at GC of Houston this week.

Key stats this week include:

• Strokes Gained: Putting: J.B. Holmes put up quite a nice display on the putting greens last year which certainly help him card that impressive 64 which ultimately helped him to the win.  He ranked 11th on the week in this crucial stat—the 2014 Winner Matt Jones ranked 1st.  Since these greens are lightning quick, you going to need some strong putters on your roster this week.

• Distance/Power: GC of Houston is a long course with lot of yards to navigate.  Power this week will certainly help and last year we saw Holmes finish the week ranked first in this category with an average drive of 312.4 yards.

• Greens in Regulation: Although an obvious stat needed to perform well in in order to succeed, this testy golf course has proven over the years that finding the GIRs will definitely move you far ahead of the pack.  Both Holmes (T10) and Jones (2nd) finished in the Top 10 in GIR during at their winning events here.

• Scrambling: This stat goes without saying on a tough, long course with quick greens.  Although not the key focus for us this week, we’ll be factoring scrambling into our picks along with our other usual fantasy prediction algorithms.

We’d love to add our 8th winner picked for the season before landing in Augusta and nothing would make us happier than to see some of our Premium Members cash in big both this week and even bigger next week at the Masters!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

This week there are a handful of options for your horse pick, but we think you may be able to get two studs on your roster with all of the solid choices in the sleeper category.  We labeled Spieth down to Oosthsuizen as potential horse picks for this week and we’ve combed their stats, rankings, projections, course history, and current trends.

Horse Picks (2): Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson

Rickie Fowler  (Golficity Odds 12/1 FPPG: 89.81 GPFP: 104.18 Salary: $11,000): Vegas has both Fowler and Stenson at 12/1 with the only other guy ahead of them being Spieth at 6/1.  We think Jordan is over-thinking his game right now (he hasn’t shown any dominance since January) and undoubtedly preparing himself for next week’s title defense at Augusta.  On the other hand, Fowler already has four Top 10s on the season but hasn’t broken through since his win in Dubai over three months ago.  Looking purely on the stats, Fowler takes the cake this week as the best in the field.

• Scrambling: 12th
• Driving Distance: 29th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 5th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 9th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 8th

* Most Notable Stat:  All-Around Ranking: 1st

Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 20/1 FPPG: 84.08 GPFP: 91.65 Salary:$10,500): We struggled with this one and originally had DJ slated in this co-Horse Pick spot.  But as we broke it down more and more, we like the trend that Mickelson has been on so far this season.  He played in seven events this season and has six made cuts with three Top 10s.  We rarely support ‘Lefty’ in fantasy but the stats are pointing at him hard this week.  Phil won here in 2011 and since that time he’s played every year and has not finished outside of T17.  Mickelson is a horse for the course here in Houston for sure and he’s even flashed some power off the tee this season.

• Scrambling: 4th
• Driving Distance: 41st
• Greens-In-Regulation: 97th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 14th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 6th

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 1st

Mid-Tier (II) ($8,100-$10,000): Holmes, Garcia, Walker, and/or Howell III?

J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 26/1 FPPG: 79.14 GPFP: 101.30 Salary: $9,7 00): Lot’s of chatter out there about how J.B. is ‘fading’ because of his T28 at Match Play and hi 59th finish before that, but that poor press may just let him slip under the fantasy radar a bit this week.  You have to consider his six Top 12s in seven events before those two bad outings which put him in a nice FedExCup spot heading into the Spring.  We can all agree that it was only a matter of time before he picked up a ‘W’ here with his past success in Houston.  In last five SHO appearances, Holmes had the following finishes: P2 (2009), T8 (2012),  T12 (2014), and Winner (2015).  J.B. has plenty of power and if he brings a hot putter there’s a good chance we’ll see a repeat this week.

• Scrambling: 73rd
• Driving Distance: 3rd
• Greens-In-Regulation: 105th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 110th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 39th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 3rd

Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 73.04 GPFP: 91.30 Salary: $8,900): Walker was our first pick for this spot but we needed to free up some salary money so we choose the next best fantasy player in the field.  C.H. III is a fantasy warrior with 12 of 13 made cuts this season and a solid 73 FPPG.  He also owns three Top 20s in his last four visits here and in that span he had a career-best T5 in 2015.  Howell does in fact have power off of the tee and knows how to scramble well enough to keep him in the mix come Sunday.

• Scrambling: 22nd
• Driving Distance: 24th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 60th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 65th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 59th

* Most Notable Stat:  Scoring Average: 14th

Low-Tier ($6,800 – $8,100): Cameron Tringale or Scott Brown?

Scott Brown (Golficity Odds 48/1 FPPG: 62.32 GPFP: 52.35 Salary: $7,900): We’re giving Brown a lot more love than Vegas is with their 80/1 odds this week and that’s because we’ve liked what we’ve seen from him over the last couple of weeks.  Over the last four weeks he’s notched three Top 10s including his T5 last week in Puerto Rico.   Scott also led the field last week in GIR and has ranked in the top five in GIR in two of last three starts.  If he can keep those GIRs up this week you can look for Brown to destroy his long Vegas odds.

• Scrambling: 100th
• Driving Distance: 60th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 114th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 84th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 66th

* Most Notable Stat:  Total Driving: 29th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

Brendan Steele  (Golficity Odds 70/1 FPPG: 70.85 GPFP: 89.98 Salary: $7,400): Like Howell, Steele is another fantasy stud that always ends up putting up some much needed points.  He has power off the tee and a solid approach game which leads to a bounty of GIRs.  He’s also trending in the right direction as he’s currently made eight cuts out of ten events with four Top 25s including a 3rd place finish so far this season.

• Scrambling: 163rd
• Driving Distance: 22nd
• Greens-In-Regulation: 31st
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 119th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green:  31st

* Most Notable Stat:  All-Around Rank: 6th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

Alex Cejka (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 67.58 GPFP: 54.07 Salary: $6,800): Although he lacks the distance off the tee, this guy knows how to scramble and find the greens.  Cejka comes in off a T11 at his title defense in Puerto Rico where he went 8-under and posted a standout 66 on the first day.  The best part of this pick is that his low $6,800 salary may allow you to get a few more studs on the top of your roster.

• Scrambling: 11th
• Driving Distance: 185th
• Greens-In-Regulation: 58th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 104th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 40th

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Rank: 22nd

Please note: these are only sample lineup that we suggest based on our research. Feel free to weave in any players whom you feel may have a better week.

Sample DraftKings Roster 1

Sample DraftKings Roster 2

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

• William McGirt  (Golficity Odds 12/1): MC
• Alex Cejka (Golficity Odds 24/1): T11 ($66,000)
• Kyle Stanley (Golficity Odds 38/1 ):  MC
• David Toms (Golficity Odds 45/1) T39 ($11,400)
• Jhonattan Vegas (Golficity Odds 55/10) T26 ($20,417)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

• Will MacKenzie (Golficity Odds 60/1): T8 ($87,000)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

• Thomas Aiken (Golficity Odds 90/1):  T47 ($7,706)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

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Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Shell Houston Open with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Flickr