Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 Shell Houston Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 Shell Houston Open

The Shell Houston Open Fantasy Sleeper Preview

After being spoiled with two tremendous events last week, the PGA scales back to just one outing as the field hits the fairways at the Golf Club of Houston for the 2016 Shell Houston Open.  This event dates back to 1946 and has regularly fallen just before the biggest events of the year, the Masters, since 2007.  The par-72, 7,457-yard course will also allow players one final chance to get into the Masters’ field with a victory.

The entrants for this event are typically impressive as it acts as somewhat of a warm-up for the most prestigious few days of the golf year and that is evident by five of the top-10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings making the trip to Texas.  Leading that group will be No. 2 Jordan Spieth, who after falling out of the WGC Match Play event during the round of 16 last week, gave up his world No. 1 spot to eventual winner of the tourney; Jason Day.  Spieth will be joined by No. 5 Rickie Fowler, No. 7 Henrik Stenson, No. 9 Dustin Johnson, and No.10 Patrick Reed.  With so many top players joining the field the trend of top-tier golfers taking down the trophy this year is likely to continue.

In the past, though, it has not always been a huge name topping the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon with players like Matt Jones, D.A. Points, and Johnson Wagner doing so since 2008.  Each of those golfers also earned themselves a bid to the Masters with the victory.  One thing that is quite likely in Houston is a tight match, and the final at this event has been decided in extra holes four times over the past seven years; including each of the past two.  Last season, it was J.B. Holmes who emerged the victor after torching the course for a Sunday 64, getting him into a playoff with eventual runners-up Jordan Spieth and Johnson Wagner.  Holmes was able to make the playoff quick, taking it down on the first hole with a par.

With so much riding on this event—between some warming up for the upcoming major championship while others working on actually getting there—there is sure to be fireworks abound.  The average score for the winner here since 2008 has been just better than 15 strokes under par and this has been done by some that would not be considered household names.  With that said, below are some fantasy “sleeper” selections who could pull through with a big performance and compete with some tough competition this week.

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The 2016 Shell Houston Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Shell Houston Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Tony Finau – Vegas Odds 66/1: It only took Finau a little over a year on TOUR to earn his first PGA win, and in his 46th start last week in Puerto Rico, he was able to do just that.  It was no surprise, though, as the 26-year-old was able to get into the top-25 in 16-of-31 starts last year and has already done so on four occasions this season (12 starts).  As a rookie in 2015, he finished in the top-50 in the FedExCup standings and he could improve on that mark this season as he currently sits in 25th.  His calling card is the big stick, as he uses a blistering club head speed of 125.12 MPH (3rd on TOUR) to tattoo the ball an average of 314.7 yards (best on TOUR).  Since he knows that part of his game will always be there, his rounds are special when other pieces come together, and that was certainly evident last week as he hit a season-high 71.43% of fairways.  His confidence should be soaring coming into Houston as the youngster looks to take on some of the bigger names out there.

Brendan Steele – Vegas Odds 80/1: Steele has been steadily climbing up the OWGR and really put things together in 2015 for his most consistent campaign to date.  He finished in 50th in the FedExCup standings last year (a career-best), and made it to the weekend in 20-of-24 attempts (83%).  He’s continued with that consistency this year, going 8-for-10 in cuts made and has been in the top-17 twice over his last four events.  Steele’s sweet swing has led to an average drive of 303.8 yards (22nd on TOUR) and has allowed for him to gain 0.791 strokes from tee-to-green (31st on TOUR).  Although he has failed to make the cut in this event twice over his last five attempts, he is coming off his best showing here in 2015 when he posted a score of eight-under and finished tied for 25th.  There is a very good chance that Steele improves on that mark when all is said-and-done in Houston.

Scott Brown – Vegas Odds 80/1: Brown has been one of the names near the top of the leaderboard for what seems like all season now and he did so once again in Puerto Rico where he grabbed a tie for fifth.  He’s now made a weekend visit at each of his last five tournaments and has placed in the top-10 three times during that stretch.  Although he ranks 84th overall on the year at strokes-gained putting, he has seemingly found his stroke with the flat iron of late and has gained strokes on the field in each of his last five outings—topping out at 1.624 strokes gained at the Valspar Championship in a 7th place showing.  If he can continue that trend, he’ll be able to pair it with an overall consistent game and improve on his 37th place finish from last year at this course.

Lee Westwood – Vegas Odds 130/1: Westwood is far removed from his days as one of the top golfers in the world and the now 42-year-old boasts one of the best resumes career you will see from the entrants this week.  Despite just two victories over 215 career PGA TOUR events, Westwood has been tremendous during majors, earning ten top-five finishes without a win between the four big events.  On top of that, he is tied for the eighth-most victories over his career on the European TOUR with 23.  The past is the past though, and he is still looking for his first win anywhere since mid-2015 on the Asian TOUR.  The upcoming week will be a fun test to see if he still does have the ability to compete against the world’s best.  It’s worth noting that Lee has made the cut here in five of the past six years with all his visits to the weekend resulting in at least a top-30 finish.  He has also made the cut in 15 of his last 17 outings on the PGA TOUR dating back to the beginning of last season—plus he should be getting pumped for his 17th visit to Augusta which will serve as a bit of incentive for the aging veteran.  Watch for Westwood to garner up some confidence and surprise many with his play in Texas this week.

Kyle Reifers – Vegas Odds 150/1: Reifers hasn’t done much over his short career to earn him a spot on this list, making the cut a mere 55 times in 107 events played (51%), but he has seemingly enjoyed playing on this course in particular and is currently in the midst of his best season to date. He has made it all four rounds in 10-of-14 outings (71%) on the season and is on pace to finish at his best mark in the FedExCup standings.  Reifers is also coming off his best showing since the first start of the year with a tie for 11th in Puerto Rico.  He hits GIR with regularity (69.27%, 43rd on TOUR) and that aided him in getting a 21st here in 2012 and an 11th last year.  In his 2015 visit to Houston, Reifers was able to shoot 10-under behind 73.61% of greens hit in regulation and a score of eight-under on the par fives.  This is the best the Wake Forest graduate has been playing in his career and he may be ready to turn a corner with his first PGA TOUR victory very soon.

Need a few more options to fill up your roster?  Remember to check out our new fantasy predictions stats page for Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points, Price Per Fantasy Point, and more info on every player in this week’s field!

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2016 Shell Houston Open here.

Cover photo via Flickr