Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Masters Tournament 2016

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Masters Tournament

The 2016 Masters Tournament Fantasy Preview

Let the big headlines begin: No Arnie, and no Tiger…at least not this year.

The season’s first major is finally here and we are all gearing up for some good old-fashioned Masters action with a new twist coming in the form of a huge prize fantasy prize pool this week—four million dollars huge that is.   For the past few years The Masters has been when fantasy golf starts ramping up for high stakes events that carry all the way into the summer.  With all the crazy office pools as well as huge jackpots on DraftKings and other fantasy sites,  it’s no wonder why so many gamers will be coming out of the woodwork to try and cash in this week.

So what’s your favorite storyline this week?  Will Rory complete the career Major Grand Slam?  With Spieth go back-to-back?  Is this the year Rickie Fowler wins his first major, will Bubba Watson become a three-time Green Jacket winner, or will one of the hot handed Aussie’s steamroll the field?  It’s been a long time since The Masters had no clear favorite and there’s no denying that this week will be a tough one.  Lucky for you, you’ll have us on your side as our fantasy gurus picked the winner in all four major events last season and we’re looking to go for five straight this week.

A photo posted by Golf Channel (@golfchannel) on Apr 4, 2016 at 6:10am PDT

Here’s the schedule for an action-packed Masters Week at Augusta:

• Monday April 4, 2016: Practice Rounds – All of the players who opted to skip the Shell Houston last week have been grinding out practice sessions at Augusta for a week or so already.  That crew will certainly have a head start over those who played the SHO last week, but that’s not always a big factor.  Monday will also feature plenty of players hitting the media tents to do press conferences and Q & A.
• Tuesday April 5, 2016: Practice Rounds – Tuesday is when the pairings usually get announced but it’s not crucial in our opinion to wait for pairings to make your picks.  On a side note, the “Champion’s Dinner” will take place Tuesday evening and we’re all anticipating Jordan Spieth to serve up some Texas style BBQ.
• Wednesday April 6, 2016: Final Practice Round and Par 3 Contest – The par 3 contest will kick off at 3pm EST which you’ll be able to watch on The Masters App for iOS.  It’s always fun to watch the guys play only Par 3s and have their family caddie for them.
• Thursday through Sunday April 7th – 10th,  2016: The 2016 Masters Tournament

OWGR No. 1 Jason Day comes into Augusta as arguably one of (if not thee) hottest player on the planet right now along with his fellow countryman No. 7 Adam Scott.  Day will easily be in the top 3 highest priced picks on DraftKings this week, but we’ll determine whether or not he’s got the game for this track/event.  Day would be looking for his third straight PGA TOUR win this week and the only other player to make The Masters his third straight victory was Tiger Woods in 2001.

With the media focus largely off of Spieth for the moment—which coincidentally we believe is a mistake because he can certainly win this week, despite his recent struggles—all eyes are looking at Rory McIlroy to try again to complete a career Grand Slam.  Not only is Rory poised to win, but Stenson has been waving the hot hand as of late as well.

Lastly, Bubba Watson will look to win his third green jacket his last five years (2012, 2014).  Watson has proven to have a game that is perfectly suited for Augusta and there is no doubt that the powerful Official World Golf Ranked No. 4 lefty will be in the mix come Sunday—that is, if he can keep his head on straight for all four rounds.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week both of our horse picks Fowler (T10) and Mickelson (T13) held up well and earned a nice chunk of fantasy points while Charles Howell III (T7) continues to put up clutch points for owners.  We missed a cut from Steele and unfortunately lossed JB Holmes to an unexpected last-minute WD prior to Round 1.   And although Scott Brown got off to a roaring start on Thursday with a 7-under 65, he fell off over the weekend which sent him down the leaderboard fast.

As a little added bonus our Tuesday Sleeper Report had Kyle Reifers as our Super Sleeper at 150/1 Vegas Odds and he ended up notching a T7 along with Howell III.  Reifers’ Top 10 finish against his low salary spend last week made for a nice boost to a number of our Premium Member’s rosters.  In all, the Tuesday Sleeper Report is on a bit of a roll these last few weeks, picking Top 10s against some very long odds.

The Masters 2016 Field

As we  highlighted in the preview, this week’s robust lineup features easily fifty names of potential winners with no clear cut slam dunk horse pick in sight.  Although we face an uphill challenge with this week’s picks we know that we’ve been here before with the last four majors and we nailed them all.

Here’s an idea of how the fantasy tiers will break down this week:

• Horse Pick: The ‘must-have’ player of the week will come out of a much larger pool of names than usual and will consist of elite players like Day, Spieth, Scott, McIlroy, Fowler, Stenson, Johnson, and Watson.  We need to be careful this week and really lock in a solid pick because it would get costly to run eight (or more) different fantasy rosters with a different Horse Pick leading each of the pack.  You may be able to run with two of these names by squeezing all low-tier and sleeper picks but that would require rolling the dice a bit.
• Mid-Tier: You should be able to get two or three solid mid-tier picks on your fantasy roster this week as most majors feature awesome players at low prices due to the robustness of the fields.  The names in this tier will certainly include Schwartzel, Bello, Reed, Mickelson, Walker, Holmes, and a dozen or so others.
• Low-Tier and Sleepers: The biggest sleepers at The Masters are always the amateurs, but those are real crap shoots.  If you can land a solid amateur with a decent T25 finish, which allows you to free up cash for top notch mid and low-tier picks, you could be sitting pretty come Sunday. But, let’s get real, we’re not flying blind on any no-namers this week.  Don’t worry, there are plenty of solid names in the $6200-$7200 range.

Don’t forget to utilize our Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points (GPFP) stats tool to see how these guys rank this week in key fantasy stats.  You may be able to pull a solid sleeper out of the lineup using this tool.

If you’re looking for a complete field for the 2016 Masters (pre-outcome of the Shell Houston Open) click here.

This Week’s Course Overview

Here’s a course that needs no introduction.  Augusta National Golf Club, the Mecca of Golf in the United States, measures in at a lush green and majestic 7,435 yards. This par 72 gem first opened in 1933 and was designed by Bobby Jones and Alistair Mackenzie who turned tree nursery into a palace where the game’s elite congregate every Spring to compete for the most coveted prize in golf.

Be sure to check out our ‘Fantasy Notes’ section below to see what stats and strategies have proven successful at Augusta over the years.

A photo posted by @themasters on Apr 2, 2016 at 2:03pm PDT

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Weather Forecast for Augusta, Georgia

A little AM rain is forecasted for the Round 1 Masters kickoff Thursday but after that it should be smooth sailing into the green jacket ceremony.  No major weather-related threats are in the forecast for the Augusta area from Friday on, so expect this course to play as true as it gets.

Last Year’s Results from The Masters Tournament

In 2015  Jordan Spieth became the second youngest player to win a green jacket (Tiger was five months younger when he took home his first Masters win) in an epic display at Augusta.  The at-the-time 21-year old had a chance to own the scoring record all by himself, but ended up missing a 5-foot par putt at the 72nd hole.  Although we’re sure he wanted that, the victory definitely offset the disappointment.

Jordan opened with a first-round 64 and went on to set scoring records for 36 and 54 holes with a record 28 birdies during the week.  Veterans Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose tried to stay closely behind Spieth but remained four shots back and could never catch the lights-out Spieth.

The win was retribution for Spieth as only a year earlier as he watched his first green jacket chances slip away to two time winner Bubba Watson.  It’s truly remarkable how he bounced back only 12 months later to secure the title and begin his quest to be one of the most dominant players on the planet.

Are you going to rule him out this week like so many others due to his recent troublesome play?  Benching him could be the best or worst move you could make this week, but we’ll explain more in our picks below.

For now, here are some highlights from Jordan’s impressive run in the 2015 Masters

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Srvbig6C7jE&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (April 7, 2016) – Friday (April 8, 2016) 3 pm- 7:30 pm EST (ESPN)
  • Saturday (April 9, 2016) 3pm – 7pm EST (CBS)
  • Sunday (April 10, 2016) 2pm – 7pm (CBS)

• Mobile Broadcasts via The Masters App for iOS

• RADIO: Thursday-Sunday 2-7 p.m. ET (Westwood One and SiriusXM)

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Masters this Week

As noted earlier, this week marks the first Major event of the 2016 season and along with that comes the first multi-million dollar fantasy golf contest of the year.  Here are a few of our favorite places to play.  Good luck winning those millions!

• DraftKings: There’s one major game in town this week (no pun intended) on DraftKings and that’s the huge $4M Fantasy Golf Millionaire Event.  The contest will pay a cool $1 million to the winner and all players up to 48,733rd place will walk away with some type of cash payout.  As of Sunday April 3rd there were already 41K signed up to play and the event caps at a little over 200K—but we doubt it will get that big.  Even with 100k entrants you still have a better shot at making it rich with a win here over playing the lotto!

• No Halftime:  This week we’ll be sure to offer some fun match ups on No Halftime, the new fantasy app that allows you to pick player vs. player and ignore the salary cap puzzle.  Start now and play all the way through Sunday by accepting or creating a match-up, and don’t forget to use the code GOLF at checkout for a $10 deposit bonus.

Additionally, a quick note for all you fantasy golf newbies out there: DraftKings is also offering a $5,000 FREE Fantasy Golf Contest that’s open to beginners only.  This contest only has 795 open spots and they’re going to fill up quick.  Jump in there if you’re looking for a free way to get your feet wet with DFS.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The 2016 Masters

This week will be like throwing a dart at a list of the best performing stocks on the back page of the Wall Street Journal; essentially anyone of them can win.  With that said, we will try to uncover some advantages to help our Premium Members rack up the fantasy points this week for a chance to bring home some serious cash.  Keep in mind that we have a pretty solid track record of picking the winner of this event (Bubba in 2014 and Spieth in 2015).  Now let’s make it a three-peat!

For starters, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day are the clear favorites according to the odds boards.   The horse pick will make or break your roster this week and utilizing some of the really strong $6,000 – $7,000 sleepers will really help you move up the leaderboard.

Here’s what you need to know about the strengths and weaknesses for the course and within the field:  Birdies this week will be tough to accomplish with the forecast calling for moderate-to-high winds for the first three rounds.  Rain won’t be much of an issue except for early tee-times on Thursday, but wind will be the silent killer for those having control issues.

Augusta is like the pretty girl at the bar that plays hard to get; the track is beautiful to look at but it can break your heart.  In fact, Augusta National ranked as the hardest par 72 in 2013 and 2014 and in last year’s edition the course played to an average score of 72.436 (despite Spieth’s standout 28 birdies).  We’re not concerned with length off of the tee this week, instead we’ll be focusing closely on stats like ball striking and putting.

Another area of focus this week will be Par 3 and Par 4 scoring.  Augusta has ranked among the toughest 3s and 4s on TOUR which is why capitalizing on the 5s this week will be crucial.  Here are some stats to really key in on this week when building your fantasy squad:

• Ball Striking
• Par 4 Scoring
• Par 3 Scoring
• Putting Average
• Strokes Gained: Total

Good luck to all of you this week and be sure to report back when you hit the $1 million!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Masters

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Masters

Horse Pick: Adam Scott or Rory McIlroy?

Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 10/1 FPPG: 103.88 GPFP: 119.46 Salary: $11,900): After what felt like nine hours of jury deliberations, we narrowed our Horse Pick down to Rory and Adam.  The decision didn’t come lightly and had little to do with his previous Masters win and far more to do with his recent performances.  We needed a horse this week that has the best chance of putting on a show and after studying the stats and forecasters, all signs we’re pointing to the FedExCup leader Adam Scott.  He’s been resting since his last win, which had us concerned a bit, plus he was knocked out of Match Play pretty quickly, but Scott has been on fire this season with two wins and a T2 already, and he certainly doesn’t look to be finished any time soon.  The only stat that scares us a bit is his accuracy, but more importantly he ranks first in the categories of Strokes Gained: Total, Par 5 Scoring, and Eagles and ranks second in Par 3 scoring, Scoring Average, and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.  Those key stats alone should give you an idea of how dominant his game is right now.  As a little added bonus his lower-than-Rory salary offers the opportunity to grab more quality sleepers at the bottom of your roster.

• Ball Striking: 11th
• Par 4 Scoring: 21st
• Par 3 Scoring: 2nd
• Putting Average: 9th
• Strokes Gained: Total: 1st

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained-Total: 1st

Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 15/1 FPPG: 89.22 GPFP: 106.179 Salary:$10,900): Rickie is probably our favorite bet straight up on the odds at 15/1 this week.  This boy seems ready to shine on the big stages (he’s been knocking on the door in majors for the past two years) and his play last week showed some signs of good golf to come.  Despite falling to T10 after being one shot off the lead on Sunday, Rickie led the Shell Houston Open in GIR and his putting looked on point.  As far as The Masters goes, he’s made five cuts in five trips to Augusta including a T12 last year and a T5 in 2014.  Right now he leads the TOUR the all-around stat and sits in second place in GIR and Par-5 Scoring.

• Driving Accuracy: 88th
• Ball Striking: 3rd
• Par 4 Scoring: 3rd
• Par 3 Scoring: 111th
• Putting Average 38th
• Strokes Gained: Total: 3rd

* Most Notable Stat:  All-Around Ranking: 1st

Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 28/1 FPPG: 79.75 GPFP: 74.17 Salary: $9,400): Charl’s been trending in the right direction now for a couple of months and this week he’s returning to Augusta, a place where he’s won before.  The 2011 champ has played seven events on TOUR this season and finished outside of the Top 18 only twice.  He also ranks 11th in Scrambling and 18th in GIR so far this season.  With already a win here and one on the European TOUR, Charl is a an excellent higher-end mid-tier pick this week.  His price tag of $9,400 may dampen your spending, but if you need to drop Fowler to fit him with Scott, it may be worth it.

• Ball Striking: 80th
• Par 4 Scoring: 21st
• Par 3 Scoring: 54th
• Putting Average: 120th
• Strokes Gained: Total: 7th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained-Total: 7th

Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 83.46 GPFP: 67.60 Salary: $8,300): Reed offers fantasy owners some putting and power but his accuracy game is a bit weak.  However, the OWGR 10th ranked player has seven Top 10s this season, which leads the field, and this marks just his third trip to Augusta, where he had a T22 last year.  As far as key stats goes Reed ranks third in Scrambling and first in Overall Putting Average.  Vegas has him at 50/1 and he makes a solid straight-up bet as well.  In fact, we like Reed in Rd. 1 over Haas in Rd. 2 as No Halftime this week.  Patrick will definitely play well this week if his putter stays hot.

• Ball Striking: 47th
• Par 4 Scoring: 12th
• Par 3 Scoring: 33rd
• Putting Average: 72nd
• Strokes Gained: Total: 36th

* Most Notable Stat:  Scrambling: 3rd

Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 55/1 FPPG: 75.19 GPFP: 60.15 Salary: $7,700): We wanted to go Bill Haas in this spot, but something tells us he’ll be a solid alternative and most likely part of our Tuesday Sleeper Report.  Casey is coming back to the PGA TOUR after being sick with a minor stomach issue during the WGC-Dell Match Play.  So far this year he only missed the cut at the Farmers (just like essentially everyone else did), so he’s showing strong signs of consistency this season.  With regards to past Masters performances Paul has four Top 25s including two Top 10s and has two T6s here to boot (2004, 2015).  Given his price tag you can label Casey as a low-tier or possibly even a sleeper pick, but thats nothing to be worried about.  Remember, you win big cash games by having one good Horse Pick and 4-5 dominating low-tier and sleepers selections, and Casey should be your man this week.

• Ball Striking: 4th
• Par 4 Scoring: 21st
• Par 3 Scoring: 66th
• Putting Average: 101st
• Strokes Gained: Total: 15th

* Most Notable Stat: Greens in Regulation: 10th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Masters

Rafael Cabrera-Bello (Golficity Odds 70/1 FPPG: 70.85 GPFP: 89.98 Salary: $7,400): Raffy is one of the most talked about guys on TOUR as he has stepped into the limelight at the right time.  Although he has not accrued any ranking stats on the PGA TOUR yet, he’s made an impressive splash in the three events he’s played here.  Rafael has a T11, 3rd, and 4th on his sheet so far in 2016 and he has shown an impressive 78.52% GIR ratio on the European TOUR which is pretty incredible considering Bubba Watson leads the PGA TOUR at just 75.12%.  He also currently has an 8-year career low average putts per round stat of 29.73 strokes so far this season.  He looks poised to make a huge splash right now so grab him on your roster this week and ride the wave inte Augusta!

• Ball Striking: NA
• Par 4 Scoring: NA
• Par 3 Scoring: NA
• Putting Average: NA
• Strokes Gained: Total: NA

* Most Notable Stat: NA

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The Masters

Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 74.50 GPFP: 59.60 Salary: $6,800): Although not the sexiest pick this week Ryan tends to light up in these big events and he has a proven track record here at Augusta.  His best finish was last year where he finished with a T12 which is part of a collection of three Top 15s in seven attempts at a Green Jacket.  So far this season Ryan has three Top 10s in his last four starts which signals a positive trend in our book.  His stats look good so far this season, his sub-$7k price tag is a steal, and we like his ball control skills with the forecasted wind.

• Ball Striking:  50th
• Par 4 Scoring: 34th
• Par 3 Scoring: 6th
• Putting Average: 14th
• Strokes Gained: Total: 25th

* Most Notable Stat:  Putting Average 14th

Please note: these are only sample lineup that we suggest based on our research. Feel free to weave in any players whom you feel may have a better week.

Sample DraftKings Roster with Scott

Sample DraftKings Roster with Fowler

Sample DraftKings Roster with Scott and Fowler

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 12/1): T10 ($170,000)
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 20/1): T13 ($123,760)
• J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 26/1): WD
• Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 38/1): T7 ($211,933)
• Scott Brown (Golficity Odds 48/1): 71st ($13,464)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

• Brendan Steele  (Golficity Odds 70/1): MC

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

• Alex Cejka (Golficity Odds 100/1): WD

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

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Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Masters Tournament with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Flickr