Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 AT&T Byron Nelson

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the AT&T Byron Nelson

The 2016 AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview

How fitting: Texas born and bread Jordan Spieth returns to his hometown event this week in the effort to win for the first time in his home state.  Spieth however is one of many left with a lingering hangover from THE PLAYERS where a lot of the world’s top names either missed the cut or failed to climb the leaderboard due to a dominating Jason Day performance last week.

Before he became a household name Jordan Spieth started his career at this event at just 16 years old.  Since then Jordan has been a runner-up in the State three times but surprisingly still has no Texas wins.  The big question with Spieth this week for fantasy players is, ‘are you confident enough in the current state of his golf game to run with him or should you wait out his slump?’  The fact is that since his collapse at Augusta his only other performance is now a missed the cut at Sawgrass, but is that enough to ignore him this week?  A counterpoint to that thinking is the fact that James Hahn missed eight consecutive cuts before winning the Wells Fargo.

Moving away from Spieth for a moment another potential horse pick this week is Dustin Johnson who notched four top-10 finishes in his past five attempts at TPC Las Colinas but it’s been six years since his best finish here, which was fourth in 2009.

Only a few players have won the Dallas Forth Worth Double (Byron Nelson and Colonial) and only Adam Scott has been able to notch the Texas Grand Slam, winning all four Texas-based events.

So, your question this week is…Spieth or Dustin as your horse pick, and which mid-tier and sleeper picks will play the best supporting role for your roster?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Hats off to Jason Day who went wire-to-wire and dominated THE PLAYERS last week as many of the world’s top golfers dropped like flies.

A photo posted by THE PLAYERS Championship (@theplayerschamp) on May 15, 2016 at 4:22pm PDT

Despite losing our horse pick Spieth to the cut,  we were still able to nail two sub-$6,700 priced sleepers who finished in the Top 9.  Molinari (T7) and McDowell (T9) paired well with one of our Top 5 picks, Matsuyama (T7), and if you managed to squeeze all three on your roster, you’re most likely sitting with some bonus cash in your fantasy bank this week.

In total we’ve banked just under $24 million in fantasy earnings YTD from our seven weekly fantasy picks over the first twenty six weeks of the season—which breaks down to an average of about $922K per week.

Although the Spieth cut was a major disappointment last we we’re looking ahead to navigate this (much different) field this week to try and get back into the win column.

The 2016 AT&T Byron Nelson Field

Despite his early exit at Sawgrass, Texas is home to World No. 2 Jordan Spieth and this is the exact location where he first tasted the PGA TOUR scene when he finished T16 here at the young age of 16.

The other top dog in the field this week is No. 8 Dustin Johnson, who with Jordan make up two of the ten players in the field this week who sit inside the OWGR Top 40.

Although many of golf’s biggest names will be sitting this week out there are still plenty of other fantasy favorites in attendance for the AT&T Byron Nelson this week and many of them continue to play well week in and week out.  This list consists of players like Charles Howell III, Charley Hoffman, Matt Kuchar, Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker, and rookie sensation Bryson DeChambeau.

For more here’s your full field for the 2016 AT&T Byron Nelson from PGATOUR.com.

This Week’s Course Overview

TPC Four Seasons Resort at Las Colinas measures in just under 7,200 yards and will play as a par 70.  About nine years ago this well-known track got a major upgrade which featured a completely different layout—one that happens to include some large, treacherous putting surfaces.

There are only two par 5’s on this relatively short course so distance will be less of a factor and we’ll be putting a premium this week on Birdie Average—we’ll dive deeper into our performance stats preview of TPC FSR in our Fantasy Notes section below.

A photo posted by Visit Irving, Texas (@visitirvingtx) on May 31, 2015 at 10:47am PDT

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Weather Forecast for Irving, Texas

The AT&T Byron Nelson will be played in traditional Texas heat, but thunderstorms do threaten play for Round 1 on Thursday.  With the forecasted rain play may get sloppy and/or suspended Thursday so if you’re looking for No Halftime match-ups this week you may want to consider taking a Round 3 player over Round 1, because who knows, the weather and potential for slow-scoring early may work to your advantage.

The weekend outlook seems a bit better but more rain is possible for later Sunday.   There’s a chance this one could be delayed or even shortened.

Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Byron Nelson

Steven Bowditch was on fire here last year after firing an impressive opening round 62 and then ‘barbell-ed’ his week with a 64 to close it out.  The Aussie converted 27 birdies during the week after going through a shifty week of weather related delays.  In fact, the rain was so bad that for the final three rounds, the par-4 14th hole was moved to a chip shot Par 3 of less than 100 yards which chance Par to 69 for those three days.

The win marked Bowditch’s second PGA TOUR victory and unfortunately he hasn’t made any noise on TOUR since.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1zqTJ00DaU&end=170&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday (May 19, 2016) – Friday (May 20, 2016) 4:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday (May 21, 2016) – Sunday (May 22, 2016) 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (GC), 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm (CBS)

• Mobile Broadcasts via the PGA TOUR LIVE App
  • Thursday-Friday, 8:00 am – 4:00 pm ET (featured groups), 4:00pm – 7:00 pm (featured holes)
  • Saturday-Sunday, 8:00 am – 6:00 pm ET (featured groups)

• RADIO: Thursday-Friday, 1:00 – 7:00pm EST, Saturday-Sunday 1:00 – 6:00 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Byron Nelson this Week

With its huge selection of contests and large weekly payouts it should come as no surprise that DraftKings remains ‘the place to be’ when it comes to weekly fantasy golf.  Places like Fantasy Feud and Stars Draft are beginning to grow in popularity but still lack the depth of DraftKings.  Regardless, they might be worth a look if you like to spread your luck around a bit.

• PGA $400K DOGLEG [$100K TO 1ST]: For 33 bucks, you can enter this 13932-player contest that includes $400,000.00 in total prizes and will pay out to the top 2955 finishers. First place wins $100,000.00.

• $3.5M FANTASY GOLF MILLIONAIRE [$1M TO 1ST]: This is the big game that we’ve all been waiting for.  The $3.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire will up and running ready for your roster selection by Monday/Tuesday of the week leading up to the U.S. Open.  You can draft up to 200 lineups for only $20 each for a shot to win the $1M top prize which one lucky winner will take on June 16th.

• No Halftime: No Halftime has created a way for fantasy lovers to play one golfer versus another without salaries or rosters.  For example, you can pick Bubba Watson in Round 1 versus J.B. Holmes in Round 2.  It’s really that simple.  You can wager as little as $5 per match or up to $100.  Even better, you can challenge a buddy in a private league or create your own public challenge.  We’re loving this new app so far and we’ve worked out a special deal for Golficity readers where you can use promo code GOLF at signup and you’ll get a $10 deposit bonus.  Download the iOS app or on Google Play to get started.  No Halftime is a great way to keep the action going well after your rosters have locked come Thursday morning.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Strokes Gained Putting is the key to success on this TPC Four Seasons course as both the 2015 and 2014 winners (Bowditch and Todd) finished the week ranked first in this crucial stat.  Even the 2013 winner Charl Schwartzel ranked second in Strokes Gained Putting which shows us that conquering these tough undulating greens is the biggest key to success this week.

Although incredibly important (as evidenced by past performances) putting won’t be the only factor this week as both accuracy and scrambling ability are the other key ingredients for success at the AT&T Byron Nelson (also proven by past winners).

This week you can go two different routes:  you can pick a top-tier horse with a hefty price tag and surround him with solid sleeper picks or you can try a lineup loaded up with five of the best mid-tier guys you can find and no horses.

“Weaker” fields are always a challenge because it’s often hard to predict the performance of the lesser-known names, but have no fear because we’re here to do the heavy-lifting for you and as an added bonus this week we will offer our Premium Members THREE sample fantasy lineups.  One lineup will include the option of playing our “horse pick” and the other two will show you how to build a killer roster without our top guy.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 10/1 FPPG: 87.90 GPFP: 103.72 Salary: $11,900): DJ is far and away the most powerful hitter in the field with a pretty solid short game too.  Granted that Johnson hasn’t made a lot of noise this season, but that doesn’t matter as he has the game to break out and get it done, especially against this weaker field.  Perhaps the biggest reason why we’re picking DJ in this spot is because Spieth’s game just looks off at the moment, and we’re not sure we trust him in the horse spot again with his ultra high price tag.  With DJ, you can save some fantasy bucks to open up some more roster spots while at the same time grabbing a veteran who is 6-for-6 here with four top 10s. A true monster for this track, Johnson carded a 62 here in the 3rd round last year proving he can go low at TPC Four Seasons.  Before notching his T28 at Sawgrass last week, he had five consecutive Top 15s and coming off a strong T4 at The Masters Dustin’s game is arguably hotter than Spieth’s right now even though Vegas still has Jordan on the top of the odds boards.

• Greens-in-Regulation: 65th
• Birdie Average: 3rd
• Driving Accuracy: 171st
• Par 4 Scoring: 7th
• Strokes Gained Putting: 37th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 4th

Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 20/1 FPPG: 70.65 GPFP: 56.52 Salary: $10,500): Kuch has been quiet in the win column lately but he’s managed two top 10s in his last three starts including his T3 a few days ago at THE PLAYERS.  It’s well known that Matt is a solid ball striker who knows how to finish when in contention and has the possibility to put up some solid fantasy numbers.  He’s no stranger to this track either, as evidenced by his eight trips to TPC Four Seasons in which Kuch has gone 8-for-8 in cuts made and he even notched a pair of top 10s here.  Look for Kuchar to be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

• Greens-in-Regulation: 48th
• Birdie Average: 31st
• Driving Accuracy: 42nd
• Par 4 Scoring: 31st
• Strokes Gained Putting: 68th

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 10th

Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 30/1 FPPG: 71.50 GPFP: 92.24 Salary: $8,900): Palmer has been off of fantasy players’ radar for quite some time now and that might be a bonus reason for sneaking him onto your roster this week.  A true cut-making animal Palmer is currently riding a streak of 12 made cuts coming into this event and his last two finishes were a T4 and a T23.  Another Texas long ball hitter, Ryan Palmer can easily build off of the success he displayed when he narrowly lost in playoff here in 2011. He’s perfect in four trips to TPC Four Seasons and can certainly keep up with DJ’s length.  The biggest question marks will be around his putter but if his flat-iron is on point (as it was in 2011) he’ll be tough to beat.

• Greens-in-Regulation: 53rd
• Birdie Average: 23rd
• Driving Accuracy: 149th
• Par 4 Scoring: 96th
• Strokes Gained Putting: 88th

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 8th

Scott Piercy (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 69.29 GPFP: 55.43 Salary: $8,000): It’s been a career year for the 37 year old veteran who has done nothing but exemplify consistency all season.  Scott is not normally a Top 10 guy but he finds greens in regulation and knows how to make birdies.  Piercy a classic ‘horse for the course’ given his experience here and his two Top 15s (including a 5th in 2013) at this venue.  At 40/1 he’s a bit of along shot to take home the trophy but at $8k he’s an excellent buy and should add some solid fantasy points to the middle of your roster this week.

• Greens-in-Regulation: 27th
• Birdie Average: 25th
• Driving Accuracy: 89th
• Par 4 Scoring: 42nd
• Strokes Gained Putting: 105th

* Most Notable Stat: Ball Striking: 18th

Colt Knost (Golficity Odds 60/1 FPPG: 63.03 GPFP: 50.42 Salary: $7,800): The big guy banked a ton of fantasy points at TPC Sawgrass last week and that’s not the only reason we’re jumping on the big fella this week.  Instead, we’re looking at his fifteen of sixteen made cuts on the season including five Top 25s and a solid T3 finish at Sawgrass last week.  Knost is clearly on a roll right now as we all saw when he nailed down a 63 last week in the second round and given the fact that he led the field all week in GIR.  Colt is also a hometown boy with a T10 finish to his name here in 2015.  Carrying a solid 63.03 Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) average, it should come as no surprise that signs are starting to point towards Colt.

• Greens-in-Regulation: 78th
• Birdie Average: 127th
• Driving Accuracy: 3rd
• Par 4 Scoring: 58th
• Strokes Gained Putting: 17th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Accuracy: 3rd

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

Bryce Molder (Golficity Odds 65/1 FPPG: 55.47 GPFP: 44.38 Salary: $7,600): A lot of fantasy talk is surrounding Molder this week and its definitely for a good reason.  Bryce is a solid ball striker with reliable accuracy and a true steal at just $7,600 this week.  His putter is usually on point as well and he’s proven this with and impressive three Top 15 finishes over the last four weeks.  Molder is no stranger to this track either as he finished T22 here last year.

• Greens-in-Regulation: 166th
• Birdie Average: 116th
• Driving Accuracy: 44th
• Par 4 Scoring: 73rd
• Strokes Gained Putting: 28th

* Most Notable Stat: Scrambling: 5th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

Andrew Loupe (Golficity Odds 120/1 FPPG: 58.44 GPFP: 63.11 Salary: $6,600): Loupe cranked up the dial with his T4 finish at Quail Hollow two weeks ago.  The 27 year old hits the ball a mile and is what some might call a magician with the putter this season.  He currently ranks 11th in birdie average and 10th in Eagles (which could add a nice boost to your fantasy points this week), but his accuracy worries us a bit.  Regardless, we’re willing to gamble on this guy a bit because of his incredible ability to drain putts and make birdies (those are the stats we’re really after this week).

• Greens-in-Regulation: 143rd
• Birdie Average: 11th
• Driving Accuracy: 201st
• Par 4 Scoring: 159th
• Strokes Gained Putting: 16th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 8th

Sample DraftKings Lineup 1

Sample DraftKings Lineup 2

Sample DraftKings Lineup 3

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 8/1) MC
• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 18/1) T7 ($338,625)
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 29/1) MC
• Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 45/1) MC
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 58/1) T43 ($33,670)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS

• Francesco Molinari (Golficity Odds 90/1) T7 ($338,625)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS

• Graeme McDowell (Golficity Odds 150/1) T9 ($283,500)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”10.00%” bar_text=”18 out of 182 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”23.08%” bar_text=”42 out of 182 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”30.80%” bar_text=”8 out of 26 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”19.23%” bar_text=”5 out of 26 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”72.00″ bar_text=”131 out of 182 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram