Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 AT&T Byron Nelson

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 AT&T Byron Nelson

2016 AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Sleeper Preview

This week the PGA TOUR heads back to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson at the Four Seasons Resort and Club in Dallas—the name of which coincides with the first winner of the event, Byron Nelson, who took home the trophy back in 1944.  The par-70, 7,166-yard course features some difficult, undulating greens which offer a very high amount of risk and reward to those who are able to attack with well-shaped shots.

This particular track has almost always allowed for close finishes, and besides last season, the margin of victory has been two or fewer strokes in each outing since 1999, with six such instances ending after extra holes.  The scores of late have been very impressive as well, with the winner averaging 14 strokes under par in each of the last four years.

In 2015, it was Australian Steven Bowditch who captured his second career PGA TOUR win behind an 18-under performance during a wet week.  His win came behind 27 birdies as he opened (62) and closed (64) with very strong rounds.  He posted the lowest final score since Rory Sabbatini put up a 19-under back in 2009 and it aided him in defeating runners up Charley Hoffman, Scott Pinckney, and Jimmy Walker by four strokes.  This week Bowditch will look to join an elite list of players, Tom Watson (1975, 1978, 1979, 1980), Sam Snead (1945, 1957, 1958), Jack Nicklaus (1970, 1971), and Bruce Lietzke (1981, 1988), as multiple-time winners at this venue.

Aiming to stop Bowditch from completing this task will be a solid field which is spearheaded by Official World Golf Rankings No. 2 player; Jordan Spieth.  The 22-year-old is still looking to shake off his meltdown in the Masters, which he subsequently followed up with a missed cut at last week’s PLAYER’S Championship.  Joining him from the top-10 will be No. 8 Dustin Johnson and another seven players (No.13 Louis Oosthuizen, No. 15 Sergio Garcia, No.16 Brandt Snedeker, No. 18 Zach Johnson, No. 19 Brooks Koepka, No. 21 Charl Schwartzel, and No.23 Matt Kuchar) from the OWGR top-25.  Also in the field will be Bryson DeChambeau, an elite newcomer who owns both an NCAA and U.S. Amateur championship, as he continues with his temporary status on TOUR.

It seems like any tournament without Jason Day in the field is fair game these days as the Australian has won in seven of his last 17 outings.  There are some top names out there, but no one who is putting up dominant efforts from week-to-week like Day.  With that said, there will be a lot of openings for some of the lesser known players to shine this week, just as current OWGR No. 110 Steven Bowditch was able to do last year.  Now let’s feature some of the men who could get out there and put up some low numbers despite having higher Vegas odds this week.

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AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Sleeper Report

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AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Graham DeLaet – Vegas Odds 66/1: It looked like DeLaet was going to take off for a big year when 2016 began, but inconsistent rounds from day-to-day really hurt him.  This continues to be a problem for the 34-year-old who comes into this week with three of his last six rounds being worse than a 76.  That being said, he should have all the confidence in the world coming back to this venue, as he is a perfect 4-for-4 in cuts made here in as many years with two finishes in the top-10.  DeLaet has shown the ability to put up amazing rounds in 2016 thanks to his ability to hit the ball a long way (297.4 yards per, 33rd on TOUR) and get on the green quick (69.55% GIR, 19th on TOUR), but has never been able to do quite enough to earn his first PGA TOUR victory.  Regardless, we believe that he will win before the end of his career, and if he can put it together for all four rounds this week, that win could come as early as this Sunday.

James Hahn – Vegas Odds 80/1: You never really know which Hahn you’re going to get, but with two victories over the past two seasons, it’s hard to think that he doesn’t have some amount of consistency coming soon.  This will be the perfect time to do just that, as he followed up his win at the Wells Fargo Championship—his first made cut since early February (after eight straight missed cuts)—with a solid 43rd in THE PLAYERS Championship.  He now ventures to a course where he carded a nine-under, fifth-place back in 2014 followed by a 55th in 2015.  Hahn is someone who can catch fire in a heartbeat, and he should be able to carry over his recent success, which included putting 1.521 strokes better than the field in his victory and 0.730 strokes better last week, to another nice week at the Four Seasons.

Lucas Glover – Vegas Odds 100/1: It has been quite some time since Glover has done much on TOUR, and you would need to go back to his 2011 victory to find the last time that he was in the top-three.  But after going 38-for-91 (42%) in cuts made from 2012-2015, he is 11-for-16 (69%) this year with two top-10s and more earnings than his 2012, 2014, and 2015 seasons combined.  He should also be feeling good as he comes into this week on the heels of five consecutive trips to the weekend and is coming off of his best outing of the year; a solo eighth at the Wells Fargo Championship where he shot six-under.  Despite playing on TOUR full time since 2004, Glover has not attended this event before, so many might pass on the 36-year-old, but he is playing his best golf in years and may just be one of the bigger surprises in Dallas.

Bryce Molder – Vegas Odds 100/1: Amazingly enough, Bryce Molder has been one of the most consistent players on TOUR since late March, and even though he has made it to the weekend in just 10-of-17 outings (59%) on the year, he has done so in each of his past seven events.  During his current hot stretch, Molder has twice jumped into the top-eight and has been in the top-12 in three of the past four tournaments he attended.  He will be looking to improve on past performances here as he rides his hot streak and has made the cut at this venue in 4-of-6 chances since 2009; with his best week resulting in a 22nd just last year.  His success this season stems from an incredible short game which has him ranked 28th in strokes gained putting (0.460), 13th in sand save percentage (58.95%), and fifth in scrambling (66.21%).  With a shorter course, these pieces of his game will give him a leg up on keeping mistakes to a minimum and should allow him his best career finish at the Byron Nelson.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat – Vegas Odds 125/1: Aphibarnrat has yet to make the huge splash on the PGA TOUR that his OWGR ranking of 37th would suggest.  Yet the 26-year-old out of Thailand has still been able to hold his own on TOUR, making 22 starts since 2013 with 16 made cuts (73%) and getting into the top-10 three times.  He did not do too great to begin the 2016 campaign at the first two WGC events, earning a 30th and 49th, but has since been able to get three top-20s (a 6th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 18th at the Dell Match Play Championships, and a 15th at his first career Masters).  Between the European and Asian Tours, Aphibarnrat has hoisted five trophies and has shown that he clearly knows how to get things done come the final round.  In his six events this year, he has been able to gain and incredible 1.529 strokes on the field with his flat iron, and if he can continue with that, he should be able to put up a great showing amongst a mid-level field in Dallas.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the AT&T Byron Nelson here.

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