Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds & Predictions – 2016 Quicken Loans National

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Quicken Loans National

 2016 Quicken Loans National Fantasy Preview

With the ‘Oakmonster’ behind us, it’s time to look forward to some more fantasy action.  DraftKings is offering some solid games for the Quicken Loans this week, and there is a pretty stacked field for it.

Among that field will be Patrick Reed and Rickie Fowler, both of whom will most likely fetch the highest price tags in any salary cap league.  Some say Reed is due, but will he pull through at Congressional?  What about Rickie coming off his worst showing all season?

More exciting is the fact that DraftKings is now open for their Golf World Champion Qualifiers, which offer players a chance at the $200,000 top prize in their first ever survivor-style fantasy contest.

For just a few bucks, you can enter at a shot to win an entry ticket to the big survivor game!  First place is awarded one of 125 tickets to play for a share of $1 million in a four round survivor-style game starting on August 25th.  All qualifiers are guaranteed cash!  Like the actual FedExCup, this contest works in a similar way, where only a certain amount of players will move on week to week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Congratulations to Dustin Johnson on winning your first major and proving that our Golficity Projected Fantasy Points indicator is pretty darn spot-on.  DJ came in at the highest GPFP of the week with 117.01, however we put a premium on putting last week and chose Jason Day as our horse pick—who, although getting off to a slow start, still ended up playing great over the weekend, banking us a solid 73 fantasy points (Dustin put up 90 total fantasy points).

Needless to say, of the big three (McIlory, Spieth, and Day), Jason finished the best at T8 after his commanding 69-66 Friday-Saturday, which yielded a great number of birdies.

Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy both missed the cut, and Jordan Spieth finished with a disappointing T37.  In total, six of our seven picks made the cut and two picks finished in the Top 15 (Day, T8 & Steele, T15).  We cashed in nicely on a roster that contained four of six of our picks, and it looks like we’ll be playing with house money for awhile.

Last Week’s Sleeper Report Fantasy Results

Our two mid-tier sleeper report picks were Lee Westwood (80/1) and Jason Dufner (100/1).  Westwood ended up falling off the pack on day four with an awful 80, but still managed to put up 59.5 fantasy points, while Dufner banked 63.5 points with his solid T8 finish.

The 2016 Quicken Loans National Field

Rickie Fowler almost pulled one out here last year, and like DJ last week, he’ll be back with a vengeance as he looks to get back into the winner’s circle.

Along with Patrick Reed, the two of them will head up a field that consists of 10 PGA TOUR winners this season, as well as a couple of veterans like Jim Furyk and Ernie Els, and a whole bunch of fantasy talent that we’re stoked to pick from.

Patrick Reed is actually a very interesting story this week.  He’ll come in with seven top 15 finishes since the start of year, but he hasn’t won in almost a year and a half.

Another strong competitor this week is U.S. Amateur Champion Bryson DeChambeau, who is coming into the week with yet another solid showing at Oakmont.

Rickie should be the top ticket player this week, but make sure you read our analysis in our Fantasy Notes section below before jumping on the Fowler wagon.  Along with Rickie, you have some decent names like Bill Haas, Scott Piercy, and Charley Hoffman, who are no strangers to large fantasy point weeks.

For more, here is the full field for this week’s event from PGATOUR.com

This Week’s Course Overview

Congressional Country Club (Blue) in Bethesda, Maryland measures in at a whopping 7,569 yards and will play as a par 71.  This course opened its doors in 1924 and some, if not all of the U.S. presidents since that time have played here or belonged to this club.

Despite the length, long distance hitters haven’t shined through as we’ve seen in previous contests.  Congressional is a difficult and long golf course, and scrambling and GIR’s will be the deciding factor.  We’ll provide more analysis of how the course plays and which indicators we’re favoring in our Fantasy Notes section below.

A photo posted by Quicken Loans National (@qlnational) on May 14, 2016 at 9:45am PDT

Weather Forecast for Bethesda, MD

Similar to last week, expect a rainy and wet Round 1, with the rest of the week shaping up to be ideal golf weather.  The rain may slow the course down during the first day, but come Friday afternoon, this track will speed up and feel a bit shorter for these guys.

Given the forecast, we expect the course to play hard and true over the weekend.  If you’re playing No Halftime this week, try to take or create match-ups where your opponent is playing during the tough Round 1 conditions.

Last Year’s Results from the Quicken Loans National

The 2015 edition of the Quicken Loans National was the first PGA TOUR victory for Troy Merritt when the young gun held off Rickie Fowler by one stroke on an epic Sunday last June to take it all.  The venue was Robert Trent Jones Golf Club, and Troy Merritt came in on the heels of five straight cuts.  But you wouldn’t have believed that stat after seeing the amazing 61 he carded on Saturday, which set a new 18-hole scoring record at Congressional.

Merritt went on to finish four under (67) on Sunday, which was enough to hold off Fowler, who finished with a 69.  Sadly this was also the last time we saw Tiger Woods on the course.

Here’s a quick clip of Merritt’s walk off birdie putt on 18 last year.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbqPIZAiUWs&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday (June 23, 2016) – Friday (June 24, 2016) 3:00 am – 6:00 pm EST (GC)
  • Saturday (June 25, 2016): 1:00pm – 2:30pm (GC), 3:00pm – 6:00pm (CBS)
  • Sunday (June 26, 2016) 1:00pm – 2:30pm (GC), 3:00pm – 6:30pm (CBS)
• Mobile Broadcasts 
  •  PGA TOUR LIVE: Thursday-Friday, 7 a.m.-3 p.m. (featured groups), 3-6:30 p.m. (featured holes). Saturday, 10:30 a.m.-6 p.m. (featured holes). Sunday, 11 a.m.-6:30 p.m. (featured holes).
• RADIO
  • Thursday-Friday, 12:00 – 7:00pm EST, Saturday-Sunday 12:00 – 6:00 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Quicken Loans National this Week

As we mentioned in the preview, last week’s multi-million dollar contest may be behind us but there are more exciting games coming up in the next few months on DraftKings, and you can begin qualifying for them now.

• $1M FANTASY GOLF WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFIER #68 ($33 ENTRY): Now you can get into the action in a unique FedExCup-style survivor game on DraftKings.  If you qualify for the event (Only 125 Spots), even if you finish in 125th place, you’ll receive $2,000.  Why wouldn’t you try for this one?  Here’s a full list of payouts for the 125 players.

• PGA $400K DRIVE THE GREEN [$100,000 TO 1ST!] ($3 ENTRY):  You can turn $3 bucks into $100,000 this week in this 156K max player event.  Skip one Starbucks coffee this week and try for a chance to win a whole big pot of money.

• No Halftime:  Player vs. player fantasy games are becoming more and more popular lately.  After your DraftKings rosters lock on early Thursday morning, you can still play heads up on No Halftime all weekend long.  It’s an easy way to double your money.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Quicken Loans National

Players coming over from Oakmont will be a little relieved, but still have a daunting task ahead of them.  It’s still a tough course, and the winner (Justin Rose) in 2014 won the event at -4.  Congressional will offer a ton of of challenge, and the summertime east coast shaggy rough and fast, undulating greens are getting nastier as the heat picks up.

So what’s worked here in the past?  To answer that question you have to jump back to 2014, which was the last time this event was played at Congressional (last year it was held at Robert Trent Jones).   As proven in past events power and accuracy are key here, and our fantasy indicators are heavily weighted on those two stats this week.  Although Rose doesn’t possess excessive power off of the tee, he shined that week in ’14 at Congressional, with stellar Scrambling and GIRs numbers.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Quicken Loans National

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Quicken Loans National

Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 70.82 GPFP: 79.32 Salary: $11,700): It was between Reed, Fowler, and Furyk in the top spot this week, and we opted for Reed in this week’s thinned-out lineup.  Although Furyk played great at Oakmont, this is a much different golf course, and one that we like Reed’s game better on.  With Rickie zero for three on his last few outings, it’s time to get excited about Reed, and he knows he’s the favorite.  He leads the TOUR with nine top 10’s, and ranks first in Strokes Gained Around-The-Green.  He was not too shabby either in his last appearance at Congressional back in 2014 where he finished with a T11.  Remember, scrambling is key, and Reed ranks 4th on TOUR and 1st in the field in Scrambling this week.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 4th
• Driving Distance:
• Driving Accuracy: 112th
• Greens in Regulation: 100th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 107th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: 1st

Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 30/1 FPPG: 60.88 GPFP: 73.06 Salary: $10,500): This spot was a toss-up between Woodland, Palmer, and Hoffman.  Of the three, Hoffman has shown the most consistency, and is beginning to charge at just the right time.  In fact, Hoffman hasn’t slowed down much this season, having two top 15’s since his huge win in San Antonio two months ago.  He already owns a T3 at Congressional just two years ago, and his power and putting indicators are looking favorable.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 80th
• Driving Distance:
• Driving Accuracy: 177th
• Greens in Regulation: 127th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 57th

* Most Notable Stat: Eagles 12th

Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 30/1 FPPG: 64.97 GPFP: 77.32 Salary: $9,900): What can you say? This guy has been a fantasy player’s dream come true.  Not a winner, but a workhorse who makes eagles and puts fantasy points on the board.  Check this out: Steele owns four Top 20’s in four of his last five events, including a most recent T15 at Oakmont.  Additionally, over the last two attempts at Congressional, he’s managed to finish T16 and T5.  When you find greens in regulation, you put up solid fantasy points–bottom line, and Steele is a master of doing exactly that.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 141st
• Driving Distance: 12th
• Driving Accuracy: 108th
• Greens in Regulation: 19th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 134th

* Most Notable Stat:  Driving Distance: 12th

Jaime Lovemark (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 63.13 GPFP: 80.17 Salary: $8,200): Danny Summerhays was a 50/50 coin flip here… but we just opted for power in this mid-tier slot, and that’s pretty much how we ended up with Lovemark.   Sure, ‘Hays played well last week at Oakmont but we need distance performance from the middle of our rosters this week, so we’re taking the cheaper option in Lovemark.  He’s been quiet for a while after going on an impressive run in the spring before cooling down a bit as of late.  Perhaps the rest will serve him well this week.  As for the stats, this boy knows a thing or two about scrambling (7th on TOUR) and power (10th in Driving Distance).  Needless to say, Congressional matches up well to his strengths.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 7th
• Driving Distance: 10th
• Driving Accuracy: 148th
• Greens in Regulation: 88th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 81st

* Most Notable Stat:  Scrambling: 7th

David Hearn (Golficity Odds 65/1 FPPG: 66.78 GPFP: 53.42 Salary: $7,500): To round out our rosters a bit more we’re going to exchange power for accuracy and consistency this week and take Hearn in this lower tier slot.  The only power hitter in the $7,300-$8,000 range was Keegan Bradley, and we’re not jumping on that train anytime soon.  Hearn has been consistent with cuts made and decent finishes, and he’s worthy of spot on your roster at this price.  He ranks 23rd in accuracy and is easily in the Top 10 of most accurate players in the field this week.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 60th
• Driving Distance: 166th
• Driving Accuracy: 23rd
• Greens in Regulation: 36th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 92nd

* Most Notable Stat:  Proximity to the Hole: 1st

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2016 Quicken Loans National

Hudson Swafford (Golficity Odds 66/1 FPPG: 54.50 GPFP: 57.23 Salary: $7,000): With his explosive power and strong GIR stats Swafford makes for a solid sleeper pick this week.  He has four Top 25’s this season and is coasting into Maryland on a 5-for-5 cuts made streak.  In that span, he’s averaged over 60 fantasy points per game, which is a strong showing in his lower salary range.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 157th
• Driving Distance: 5th
• Driving Accuracy: 73rd
• Greens in Regulation: 30th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 64th

* Most Notable Stat:  Driving Distance: 5th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2016 Quicken Loans National

Jhonattan Vegas (Golficity Odds 120/1 FPPG: 57.44 GPFP: 49.40 Salary: $6,200): Another classic low-priced fantasy player who can bomb the ball off the tee and find greens in regulation, Vegas has been the top sleeper of the season for most fantasy players, and he’s put up some quality points for owners.  He ranks 13th in GIR and 16th in Driving Distance, the combination of which makes for huge potential here at Congressional.  Although his recent missed cuts are signaling a downtrend, we’re willing to add him for $6,200 for some additional power and accuracy (and to allow the big dogs to get on the roster).

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Scrambling: 143rd
• Driving Distance:  16th
• Driving Accuracy: 139th
• Greens in Regulation: 13th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 103rd

* Most Notable Stat:  GIR: 13th

Sample DraftKings Lineup With Reed

Sample DraftKings Lineup Without Reed

Bonus “Mid-Tier Heavy” Sample Roster

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the US Open

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 7/1) T8 ($247,806, Fantasy Points: 73)
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 30/) MC ($0, Fantasy Points: 15.5)
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 45/1) T4 ($34,430, Fantasy Points: 43)
• Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 60/1) T23 ($82,890, Fantasy Points: 55)
• Daniel Berger (Golficity Odds 65/1) T37 ($46,170, Fantasy Points: 50.5)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the US Open

• Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 120/1) T15 ($153,234, Fantasy Points: 57.5)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the US Open

• Charley Hoffman (Golficity Odds 120/1) T37 ($46,170, Fantasy Points: 46.5)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”9.22%” bar_text=”20 out of 217 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.66%” bar_text=”47 out of 217 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”25.81%” bar_text=”8 out of 31 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”19.36%” bar_text=”6 out of 31 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”73.73″ bar_text=”160 out of 217 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Quicken Loans National with other Premium Members.

Looking for European Tour fantasy picks for this week’s BMW International Open?  Get them here.

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Cover Photo via Flickr