Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Shriners Hospitals For Children Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Shriners Hospitals For Children Open
Shriners Hospitals For Children Open Champions Fantasy Preview
This week the main draw of the PGA TOUR returns to US soil after a brief sojourn to the Far East for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.
Hosted by the spectacular TPC Summerlin club in Las Vegas, Nevada, this is a typically low-key Fall Season event that generally fails to attract the Tour’s top names, most of whom will be at home on the sofa recovering after a busy few weeks in Malaysia and China.
This tournament has actually been around since 1983 as a pro-am event staged across multiple courses, but for the past decade or so the event been a standard 72-hole affair and since 2008 hosted by the Summerlin club.
Many will remember that it was here that Smylie Kaufman first burst onto the scene with his breakout victory; a final round of 61 saw him romping through the pack to win by one shot over Jason Bohn. Kaufman even had the luxury of firing +1 on Friday and still coming out on top, such was his excellence on the Sunday.
So, can the Alabama boy successfully defend his title? Let’s dive deeper to find out and see if he’s worth a look for your DFS rosters this week.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week we ran with Rory as our top-tier horse pick and he finished the week solidly with a T4 performance. Along with Rory, we put an emphasis on Francesco Molinari who finished T6 with a healthy 102.5 fantasy points.
Of our seven Top Picks, four finished in the Top 30 (3 in the top 19) while big names that were heavily weighted in DraftKings like Dustin Johnson (T35), Patrick Reed (T60), and Bubba Watson (T54) all finished far below.
Matsuyama and Stenson proved to be the more ideal picks last week but we’re content with our McIlroy/Molinari combination. As noted in last week’s preview Knox proved to be a good alternative pick over Kaymer who underperformed our predictions and rational for running with the young German last week. In all, here’s how we fared in Shanghai:
Main Picks
- Rory McIlroy: T4 ($372,000)
- Martin Kaymer: T40 ($62,000)
- Francesco Molinari: T6 ($235,333)
- Rafael Cabrera Bello: T19 ($93,000)
- Alexander Levy: T58 ($47,750)
Sleepers
- Branden Grace: T30 ($72,000)
- Scott Hend: T54 ($49,250)
The 2016 Shriners Hospitals For Children Open Field
It’s no surprise to see the top-end of the field packed with players boasting Nevada connections, particularly as this course has generally been kind to those who know how to pick their way around it. As such, the presence of Kevin Na, Ryan Moore, Scott Piercy and Charley Hoffman is no coincidence.
Ryder Cup stars Brooks Koepka and Jimmy Walker will be looking to put their tough time in China behind them, while eye-catching performances this past weekend from Francesco Molinari and Chris Kirk has seen them creep into the reckoning too.
Lower down the pecking order we have the likes of Cody Gribble, who is celebrating his maiden PGA TOUR title after capturing the Sanderson Farms Championship last the weekend, as well as former Shriners Hospitals for Children champions in Ben Martin, Webb Simpson and Martin Laird.
This Week’s Course Preview
TPC Summerlin has been described as the easiest of the Par 71 courses that the PGA TOUR visits, and with its high altitude—meaning that its 7,255 yardage doesn’t really play that long—you can see why winning scores here have ranged from Kaufman’s -16 last year to -24 in 2013.
Designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1992, Summerlin offers few obstacles of note. Fairways are wider than average and the Bentgrass greens offer plenty of angles in. These will be running at around 11 on the stimpmeter, so there will be plenty of birdies or better for those who enjoy a good weekend with the short stick.
Kaufman’s winning total of -16 in 2015 has been the ‘poorest’ score in the past five renewals, so the addition of a few extra bunkers in recent times may just have had the desired effect of adding some more challenge to the track, but even so this is something of a birdie-fest that will be enjoyed by those in top form as well as those in the know.
Weather Forecast for Las Vegas, Nevada
The weather is set to be fair this week in Nevada, with 0% chance of rain and around 30% humidity. A steady breeze on Thursday, with winds at approximately 10mph, will give way to an almost still weekend.
As is often the case, the wind looks set to pick up during the afternoon on Thursday, so perhaps those early tee times will have a slight advantage.
Last Year’s Results from the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open
Smylie Kaufman cut his teeth on the PGA TOUR at this event in 2015, just a week after recording his first PGA TOUR top-10 at the Frys.com Open. What a few weeks that was for the South Coast native! Kaufman’s early season success came after a sparkling year on the Web.com circuit, so once again the Tour’s new boys will be of interest to DFS managers.
Kaufman had chugged along quite nicely at Summerlin last year without doing anything spectacular….until a final round of 61 ensured he cut a swathe through the field to win by a solitary stroke.
His performance was underlined by quality off the tee (ranking fifth for Driving Distance and seventh in Driving Accuracy), an effective short game (13th for GIR), a hot hand on the dancefloor (eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting) and an ability to shoot low (T1 for Birdies Made). With just a trio of Par 5s, making those holes count also worked in Kaufman’s favor.
Nevada native Kevin Na again went close here in second, with four other players (Alex Cejka, Patton Kizzire, Jason Bohn, and Cameron Tringale) also duking it out for the silver medal.
[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wq5q3M1hQ_0[/embedyt]
This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Thursday-Saturday, 4:30-7:30 p.m. EDT (Golf Channel)
- Sunday, 3:30-6:30 p.m.(GC).
- Mobile Broadcasts:
- None
- RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
- Thursday-Friday, 2-8 p.m.
- Saturday, 3-8 p.m
- Sunday, 2-7 p.m.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open this Week
As always DraftKings is where the big action is and should be the first port of call for daily fantasy managers around the globe. This week they’ve set-up a rather varied slate of contests to get players of all budgets and preferences excited:
- PGA $100K Fore: Here’s a solid multi-entry contest with a total prize pool of $100k, and with just shy of 30,000 competitors you won’t be swamped by high rollers. Probably the best $4 you’ll spend this week.
- Dogleg $100K: Of course, if you want a bit of extra bang for your buck then try the Dogleg on for size; a $33 entry that offers a whopping top prize of $10k and a chance to double your money just for finishing in the top 15% of this 3500 player battle.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open
Last year’s top ten finishers at the Shriners were an eclectic bunch, although a consistent thread informed the good performances of many of those who were in the hunt for top honors.
Smylie Kaufman was seeing the course for the first time, but there were plenty of other contenders who have done great things in Vegas. Jason Bohn, for example, had gone seven-for-seven here, with three consecutive top-20s prior to his runner-up spot in 2015. Chad Campbell now has three top-10s at Summerlin to his name, Na, as we know, has some local knowledge to call upon, Cejka had finished 18th here in 2014, while Patton Kizzire has a nice run of good showings in West Coast events to call upon.
A compelling trend for course form, or at least regional form, is emerging.
The parallels between decent finishes at the Shriners and a good showing in the Frys.Com/Safeway Open is revealing enough too. Both Bohn and Na connected for top-10s last year, while the likes of Piercy, Steele, Kizzire and Laird have all recorded top-20s in both.
As for the on-field action, we’re looking for a ‘total driver’ who can blend accuracy with distance (Kaufman was ranked in the top ten for both key stats last year), and a decent short game merchant too – 12 of the last 13 winners have ranked top 20 for Greens in Regulation.
Kaufman’s putter was on fire here last year, and as we expect in all ‘birdie-fest’ tournaments getting the job done on the greens is essential. Clearly, going low on the Par 4s is just as important as doing so on the longer holes—Kaufman played the fours at -6 and the fives at -7 in his championship run.
One final thought that may come in handy for DFS managers – certainly for bettors, anyway – is that eight of the ten first round leaders started on peg 10, with five of those given a morning tee time.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open
Top Tier Pick
Kevin Na (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 70.6, GPFP: 56.46 Salary: $9,500)
We’ve been quite vocal about our appreciation of Na’s chances this week, and we’re even happy enough with his odds in this one to overlook a poor run in the Far East—such is our confidence in the 33-year-old.
He didn’t trouble anybody in Malaysia or China, but back on his native Nevada stomping ground we expect Na to be up for the challenge of adding to a fine resume on the West Coast.
Back-to-back top-10s at the Fry’s/Safeway can be backed by a run of 1-22-MC-WD-2, and what is perhaps most noticeable is that his first and second places came three years apart; further evidence of his suitability for this TPC Summerlin track.
Na is very much a ‘horse for the course’ type, and it’s no surprise to see that his best PGA TOUR performances have largely come against thin fields like this one.
Key Stats:
- Total Birdies – 6th
- Strokes Gained: Total – 10th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 16th
Top Tier Pick II
Martin Laird (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 57.9, GPFP: 52.07 Salary: $9,200)
The crafty Scot is tailormade for tests like this courtesy of his excellent ball striking, and a T8 at that all-important Safeway Open confirms his West Coast credentials.
Laird can go low with the best of them as evidenced by this -14 return at Silverado, and it should be no surprise to learn that his ability to birdie Par 4s makes him a very viable contender here.
The 33-year-old’s good form can be back-dated to the tail-end of the 2016 campaign, where a T7 at the Barracuda Championship was followed by an agonizing second at the Canadian Open and a top-20 return at the Barclays.
In thin fields like this one, you have to expect Laird to fire his way into contention.
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Approach the Green – 3rd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 9th
- Putting Average – 15th
Mid-Tier Pick
Brendan Steele (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 63.6, GPFP: 75.00 Salary: $8,800)
The battle to be our top-tier pick this week was a three-way dance between Steele, Na, and Ryan Moore, and the fact that the former has been able to put his feet up for the past few weeks while the latter pair have been striving in the Far East just sealed the deal.
Steele, you may recall, triumphed at the Safeway Open – not a huge surprise, when you think about it, given his Californian residence, and he will surely get a great buzz in returning to his West Coast roots here. Don’t forget that he has shaken off the ‘post-champion blues’ already with a respectable T26 at the CIMB Classic, so we don’t need to worry about a hangover here.
The 33-year-old has done the business at Summerlin in the past, and his history reads MC-33-57-13-6 from front to back, so clearly there is something to work with here. His missed cut in 2015 came off the back of a +4 final round at the Frys.com, so clearly he wasn’t in a good place at that time. What a difference 12 months can make!
There’s a lot to admire in Steele’s statistical breakdown so far in the 2017 season, and with the flush of glory still reddening his cheeks we have to ask “why not draft him here?”
Regardless, if you’re looking to save some bucks, Cody Gribble has had an impressive start this season and so is a solid sub here for Steele.
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Total – 1st
- Scrambling – 1st
- Strokes Gained: Putting – 8th
Low Tier Pick
Patrick Rodgers (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.0, GPFP: 50.07 Salary: $7,500)
One of the most memorable take-aways from last year’s Shriners was the performance of Patrick Rodgers, whose opening salvo of 66 really should have been the springboard from which a title challenge could be mounted. But two 71s in the middle part of his tournament put the dampener on that, but not before a Sunday 66 got the juices flowing once more. If he can connect two low rounds in more convincing fashion this time around, who knows what he can achieve.
Four top-10s last season suggest that Rodgers has come of age, to some extent, as a PGA TOUR professional, and a solid enough T21 at the CIMB Classic was pleasing to see from a guy in this lower-tier salary range. Keep in mind that Rodgers has also had an extra week to prepare on US soil than many of his mid-to-low tier contemporaries, and that could prove invaluable.
Key Stats:
- GIR Percentage – 16th
- Birdie Average – 23rd
- Par Breakers – 25th
Low Tier Pick II
Michael Kim (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.6, GPFP: 44.44 Salary: $7,200)
Let’s complete the collection of West Coast natives by drafting a University of California educated young star in the making.
Michael Kim’s sole appearance this term was a T3 at the Safeway Open; not bad considering he bludgeoned his way to a 73 in his first round. From there 67-65-67 showcased exactly what this 23-year-old is capable of.
An ability to rip absolute bombs off the tee will help on courses like this at altitude; it certainly did at the Shriners last year where Kim, averaging 300 yards off the tee with a longest of some 329 yards, finished 16th in his first official visit to TPC Summerlin.
He rather kept under the radar from that point on, but 22 cuts made in 29 starts should convince DFS managers of his worth – especially here in Nevada.
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Total – 5th
- Strokes Gained: Putting – 9th
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green – 13th
Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open
Chris Kirk (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 71.3, GPFP: 44.36 Salary: $10,300)
We know Kirk doesn’t fit the bill as the usual sleeper due to his price tag, but it is amazing how many DFS managers overlook him for ‘bigger names’ when drafting their roster. Remember, a ‘sleeper’ is not always the same as a ‘long-shot.’ A sleeper is a pick you make that most likely no one else will run with. With Moore turning so many heads, Kirk may get overlooked.
It was a very impressive showing from Kirk at the Sanderson Farms Championship as we saw him bank a second place finish, which, given that he was one of the bookmakers’ favorites for the title, is eye-catching. He will be able to keep his head down without too much pressure here, and that might just help him get over the finish line.
We’re going back the best part of two months but Kirk has actually returned three consecutive top-10s in his last trio of starts; an attention grabbing T8 sandwiched in-between that Sanderson Farms effort and T10 at the BMW Championship, so here’s a guy at the top of his game right now.
A pair of T36s in his last two visits to Summerlin is hardly the stuff of legend, granted, but he is striking the ball as well as he has ever done at the moment. That means an improvement is surely in the offing.
He’s a sleeper as a top tier pick, but you can easily fit him cleverly into your lineup or by running with Kirk on the top of an alternate roster this week (see below for roster suggestions).
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Total – 9th
- Total Birdies – 10th
- Strokes Gained: Putting – 11th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open
Nick Watney (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 63.9, GPFP: 51.13 Salary: $7,500)
After almost a year out on the sidelines with a back injury, Watney is back and ready to take down what has become a very happy hunting ground for the 35-year-old.
The Sacramento native has returned top-20 finishes in five of his last six starts at Summerlin, and while a back injury is obviously of concern a T35 at Silverado—which concluded with a mighty fine 67—suggests the five-time tour winner is back in the groove.
But that record at Summerlin….6-2-10-48-16-11 simply cannot be overlooked. DFS managers will be taking a risk by drafting him, but with that course form it could well prove to be a calculated success.
Key Stats:
*No stats important enough to share yet this season for Watney
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups
Please note: The lineups provided here just examples of combinations that we suggest based on the picks highlighted above. As always, we suggest mixing and matching our picks with your own to give yourself the greatest competitive edge.
Sample Roster With Kevin Na
Sample Roster With Chris Kirk
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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2015-2016)
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