Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

OHL Classic at Mayakoba Fantasy Preview

After a brief return to U.S. soil for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, the PGA TOUR is packing its bags and heading off south to Mexico for the 2016 OHL Classic.

Last week was the first time in the past year that we witnessed a winner who teed off at Vegas odds of in excess of 150/1.  Rod Pampling, a talented Australian without a win in a decade, held firm from the challenge of Lucas Glover and Brooks Koepka to take home the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.

There’s no rest for the wicked though as Pampling and a handful of the Shriners field head across the border for the OHL Mayakoba Classic, and they are joined by a number of contenders who are refreshed and ready to rock after returning from Asia following the CIMB Classic/WGC HSBC Champions events just a few weeks ago.

El Camaleon, in the Playa del Carmen resort, is the host venue, and this stunning landscape track with a distinct tropical, coastal environment should offer the players an aesthetically-pleasing four days alongside a decent test of their credentials.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results Shriner’s Hospital for Children Open

Many of you have told us that you just can’t wait until the fall series ends and the real season kicks off in January.  We certainly feel you!  These past few events have been a challenge when the field is full of no-namers and we have guys like Rod Pampling (who hasn’t won a PGA TOUR event since 2007) holding the trophy on Sunday.

We missed a few cuts last week but the sun was shining bright with our “sleeper” horse pick Chris Kirk who finished round two tied for the lead before putting up dismal weekend rounds.  Despite his weekend collapse, he still managed to put up close to 70 fantasy points, but in the end it  just wasn’t enough.

We look forward to a big bounce back this week at Mayakoba; that’s for sure.

Last Week’s Results from the Turkish Airlines Open

On the other side of the pond, we fared quite well with our picks.  Of our five tiered European picks, all selections made the cut including Horsey at T2 and Hatton at T10.  In total, we had four of our five picks finish in the Top 22.

The 2016 OHL Classic at Mayakoba Field

Defending champion Graeme McDowell will tee off this week in Mexico as he looks to become the second back-to-back winner of the 2016-2017 campaign following Justin Thomas’ heroics in Malaysia.

The Irishman will be joined by a cavalcade of former winners here, including Charlie Hoffman, Harris English and Johnson Wagner, although this week much of the attention will be focused on the two highest world-ranked players in the field, those being Russell Knox and Emiliano Grillo.

 
That pair is joined by an eclectic mix of fellow front-runners, including Jim Furyk and his first look at El Camaleon, the in-form duo of Chris Kirk and Scott Piercy, precocious talent Si-Woo Kim, and former Open Championship runner-up Marc Leishman.

This Week’s Course Preview

Coming live from El Camaleon in the heart of Playa del Carmen, this week features a unique test that really questions a player’s technique.  Lining the coast, a hefty breeze is expected across the week and the Sea Isle Paspalum surfaces will be new to anyone that hasn’t played golf in South America (or parts of Asia) in the past.

 
One of the few active Par 70 tracks on the PGA TOUR, El Camaleon measures in at just 6,978 yards, and while handy hazard placement negates the possibility of the stretch being overpowered, winning scores of -21, -17 and -18 in the last three renewals clearly suggests otherwise.  Mind you, McDowell ranked just T56 for Driving Distance in 2015, so obviously length isn’t all that important this week.

At least it will look good on television anyway: El Camaleon features stunning coastal views, tropical landscapes and dense mangroves all in one venue!

Weather Forecast for Playa del Carmen, Mexico

Thundery rain is forecast in the lead-up to Thursday’s tee off, and while temperatures remain high the oppressive humidity in excess of 75% will lead to some heavy downpours; even if the chance of rain on Thursday and Friday is said to be just 40%.

The average wind speeds are expected to reach 10 mph, but don’t be fooled: right by the coast these will gust up to 15 mph as a minimum.

Happily the weekend is set to be fair, and the business end of the tournament should not be too badly affected by weather.

Last Year’s Results from the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

In 2015 Graeme McDowell, in his first PGA TOUR start in three months, prevailed in a playoff against Russell Knox and Jason Bohn to clinch his third tour title.

His opening gambit of 67 was bettered only by Derek Fathauer of those players to finish inside the top ten, and a 63 on Friday confirmed his position at the top of the tree.  A slight bump in round three of 70 opened the door for others, but a fine 66 on the Sunday fired the Irishman into the playoff at the expense of Fathauer, who up until his fourth round had played exemplary.

McDowell birdied the first of the extra holes to earn himself a healthy check and lift the OHL Classic trophy.

His route to glory was a well-trodden path on Par 70 tracks.  More accurate off the tee than long (T16 for Driving Accuracy, T56 for distance), McDowell hit his fair share of greens (T30 for GIR) but really came alive with the short stick in hand, ranking T4 for Putts per GIR.  As you might expect, he ranked first for Birdies Made and played the Par 5s in -9 of his -18 winning total.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwXFMHaeQlc[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Sunday, 1-4 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
• Mobile Broadcasts:
  •  None
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • Thursday-Sunday, 11 a.m.-4 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba this Week

The Fall season has left DFS managers shy of options in terms of a variety of contests, but at least the size of prize money on offer is none too shabby!  This week DraftKings are serving up this pair of lucrative contests:

• PGA $40K 3-Wood: High rollers, assemble! $5000 is up for grabs for the winner of this contest, with a total prize pool of $40k provided by the 148 entrants at a cool $300 per entry.
• Caddy for a Cure: A fantastic cause, each $5 entry fee goes to the charity with players having the opportunity to win a VIP golf trip to Myrtle Bay (three nights) and $500 spending money!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

McDowell’s path to success was representative of those that had come before him.  Of the last eight winners of this event all have favored accuracy over length off the tee, but the key is that whatever happens off the tee is not the be-all and end-all.

As such, Scrambling comes into its own as does Greens in Regulation; McDowell was an anomaly in not featuring highly in this stat compared to the previous four champions here.

The numbers suggest that putting is key – each of the last three winners has ranked inside the top five for Putts Per GIR, so drafting players in form with the putter or who can get the ball close (Proximity) is key.

What else do we have in our armory this week?  Well, both McDowell and Knox were raised on Links courses, and that’s largely due to the windy conditions experienced.  Looking at the likes of the Sony Open and the St Jude Classic, similarly breezy, will be of interest to fantasy managers this week.

Lastly, the recent Asian swing of the PGA TOUR gave those in attendance a taste of Paspalum golf, so those performances have to be noted as well.

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member? Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Top Tier Pick: 

Russell Knox (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 69.4, GPFP: 55.52, Salary: $11,800)

If ever the top-ranked player in a DFS roster deserved their status, it has to be Knox this week.

The Scot has gotten over the disappointment of missing out on Ryder Cup selection with a pair of top-ten returns since in the Far East including a T10 at the CIMB and T9 at the WGC-HSBC.  From those two trips he recorded a combined GIR of 77% and Driving Accuracy of approximately 75%, so that’s how well he is striking the ball on these Paspalum surfaces.

Born in Inverness, Knox is no stranger to wind-affected golf and it shows in his results.  A playoff loss here last year, which backed three other consecutive cuts made at El Camaleon, is joined by top-15 finishes in the past year alone at the Sony Open (T13) and the St Jude Classic (T8).

A two-time winner in 2016 already, Knox looks to be a strong favorite to make it three this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 4th
• Scoring Average – 16th
• Greens in Regulation – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Harris English (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 61.00, GPFP: 66.47, Salary: $9,500)

Renowned as one of the finest putters around, English is already doing his thing with the short stick in these early weeks of the 2016-2017 campaign.  Perhaps a third win of his career is just around the corner – you might remember that his maiden victory came here back in 2013.

A steady start at the Safeway Open (T35) was followed last week by an outstanding showing at the Shriners where four rounds of 64 contributed to his fourth-place finish.  With regards to current form and course history….those are certainly converging trends worth having on side in Mexico this week.

English hasn’t really done anything of note at El Camaleon since his 2013 triumph, but from a statistical point of view he remains an excellent fit.  He ranked T4 for Birdies Made at TPC Summerlin, T7 for GIR, and gained 2.870 shots on the field with his short stick, and those numbers echo his 2016-2017 season efforts to date.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 11th
• Birdie Average – 15th
• Strokes Gained: Putting – 17th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Marc Leishman (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 65.1, GPFP: 52.11, Salary: $8,500)

It has been a fine year on the Tour for the Australian contingent, and you wonder if 2017 might be the year that Marc Leishman finally delivers upon his undoubted potential.

A consistent player who is naturally a favorite with DFS managers (20 cuts made from 25 starts in 2016), the Aussie has recorded a top five on Paspalum grass already this season at the CIMB Classic, where he hit an excellent 82% of greens across the week and 67.86% of fairways.

Leishman is excellent when playing on tracks that require effective course management, and so he should enjoy his run around El Camaleon this week.  His numbers – 1st for GIR, 2nd for Birdie Average, and 16th for Driving Accuracy all confirm that assertion.

We even have the added bonus of some Links experience to call upon, with a playoff loss in The Open of 2015 at blustery St Andrews an indicator of his happiness even in coastal conditions.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 1st
• Birdie Average – 2nd
• Driving Accuracy – 16th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

Billy Hurley III (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 42.85, GPFP: 42.85, Salary: $6,800)

Hurley’s performance at last week’s Shriners event was noticeable for a number of reasons.  Firstly, his T15 finish indicates that he is striking the ball nicely at present, as does the fact that his GIR stat was up at 75%.  Secondly, his last two rounds were a pair of 66s, and overall he played the Par 5s in -8; clearly helped by his ability to boom the ball off the tee.  As discussed, that particular skill will be less useful here, but on the longer holes it should still play to his advantage.

Since June, when Hurley won the Quicken Loans National, he’s really come into his own for DFS managers with nine cuts made from ten starts.  The highlights of those have been a T22 at the PGA Championship and a T8 at the Deutsche Bank Championship, and at this price point you won’t find many campaigners as reliable as the 34-year-old.

Hurley has a love-hate relationship with El Camaleon, although to be fair he has gone three-for-free here, and an improving record of 46-65-23 suggests that a top-20 return is a possibility this week.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green – 2nd
• Strokes Gained: Total – 14th
• Driving Accuracy Percentage – 23rd

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Chez Reavie (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 59.3, GPFP: 47.41, Salary: $6,400)

Reavie has gone three-for-three so far at El Camaleon, and while that trio of finishes is hardly convincing (60-49-74) Reavie is currently playing some of the best golf of his young career.

Forget his opening 76 at the Shriners and just look what followed it: 61-68-67.  His return of T24 would have been so much higher had he not suffered such Thursday blues.

Two other made cuts in 2017, featuring a best of T22 at the Safeway Open, is a good sign for DFS managers needing a low-tier angle, and just look at those juicy key stats below….

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 10th
• Proximity – 13th
• Par 4 Scoring – 14th

Sleeper Pick for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Derek Fathauer (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 53.4, GPFP: 42.59, Salary: $8,300)

A lot of boxes are being ticked by Fathauer this week, and it is nice to have him on board at such an agreeable price.

His game is clearly in form right now as evidenced by a T15 at the Safeway Open (where he finished with -6) backed by a T3 on the Paspalum grass of Malaysia at the CIMB and then a T36 at Shriners, where a third round of 72 really halted his progress to an otherwise very good -9.

Derek is also putting very nicely at present (15th for Strokes Gained: Putting and 10th for Total Putting) which that has contributed to his readiness in converting (8th for Total Birdies), so a lot of components are in place for a title charge from the Florida flyer.

As if excitement hadn’t already reached fever pitch….Fathauer finished fourth in his last visit to El Camaleon back in 2015!

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 8th
• Total Putting – 10th
• Strokes Gained: Putting – 15th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Johnson Wagner (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 57.9,GPFP: 46.89, Salary: $8,400)

Wagner is the archetypal ‘sleeper’ in the sense that nobody quite knows what to expect from him on any given week, but a run of form at El Camaleon that reads 30-MC-16-8 since his title win here in 2011 suggests he needs to be respected.

A missed cut at the Shriners last time out will be enough to put some fantasy managers off; but remember, he didn’t stink the place out with rounds of 71 and 70, and don’t forget Wagner is very much a ‘horses for the course’ type of guy.

That followed a T3 at the Safeway Open so we have no qualms about his form, and for a guy that is regularly undervalued by Vegas odds-makers and daily fantasy platforms a record of 17 cuts made from 26 starts in 2016, including a half-dozen top-25 returns, should command more respect.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 5th
• Strokes Gained: Putting – 22nd
• Strokes Gained: Total – 25th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Please note: The lineups provided here just examples of combinations that we suggest based on the picks highlighted above. As always, we suggest mixing and matching our picks with your own to give yourself the greatest competitive edge.

 With Knox

Without Knox

[/membership]

Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 28 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.40%” bar_text=”6 out of 28 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”32.10%” bar_text=”9 out of 28 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 8 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 8 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”78.60″ bar_text=”22 out of 28 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba with other Premium Members.

---

Cover Photo via Instagram