Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2017 Sony Open in Hawaii

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Sony Open

2017 Sony Open Fantasy Preview

This week the second leg of the Hawaii swing heads to the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu.  Conditions look set to be typically warm and breezy and we have learned to expect the unexpected at this fascinating tournament over the years given that early favorites Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama have missed five cuts at this event in five starts between them.

One player who has done slightly better at Waialae in the past is Justin Thomas, who will head across the island on a crest of a wave having lifted the Tournament of Champions trophy last week with a sublime performance under pressure, marking his third PGA TOUR win and his second victory in four starts.  Is this the year he steps out of the shadow of his good buddy Spieth?

Thomas will be in attendance alongside Spieth and a raft of other top players.  With so much talent seeing airtime this early in the year everyone is left wondering who will bag the second piece of silverware in 2017?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the SBS Tournament of Champions

Our horse pick of the week was Spieth (T3) and although he didn’t come away with the win a DFS horse is exactly what he was!

Despite not winning the event, Jordan recorded the most birdies in the field with 25 (3 pts each) and one eagle (8 points).  He also had a bogey free round (+3 points) and in three of the four rounds he put together a birdie streak of at least 3 in a row (+3 points each round = 9 pts).  coming in 3rd also earned him +18 additional fantasy points.

In total, even though Jordan didn’t hoist the trophy, he still put up over 120 fantasy points last week which was good enough to help you cash in.

 
Along with Spieth our two Sleeper Picks last week were Pat Perez (T3) and Jimmy Walker (T9).  True to his recent form we noted in last week’s fantasy picks segment Perez dropped 20 birdies, one eagle, and forty-four pars.  Minus out the bogeys (6) and add in the 3rd placed finish along with one bogey free round, and one birdie streak and Pat notched you a final point tally of last week of 111.  Impressive for a Sleeper with 80/1 Vegas odds!

Meanwhile, Walker dropped 19 birdies with one eagle and ended up finishing 9th for just under 80 fantasy points.

Our Tuesday Sleeper Report had just three picks due to the small field and our top dog was Brendan Steele who finished T6 with 19 birdies, one eagle, 45 pars, and a bogey free round.  In total he finished with just under 100 fantasy points against his 50/1 odds.

When all said and done we ended the week at Kapalua with four of seven fantasy slections making the top 14 including three top 10s and two T3 finishers for a total event purse winnings of $1.268 million.  Not many saw Justin Thomas playing the way he did (and holding out against the immense pressure) among a field of this caliber but it shows us that JT will be a force to be reckoned with this season.

The 2017 Sony Open Field

As expected, it is Spieth, Matsuyama, and Thomas who stand out from the crowd as the headline acts this week, but with rather mixed records on this Waialae Country Club track, perhaps this is one tournament where DFS managers are free to scout around a little lower on the roster.

 
Jimmy Walker has won this crown twice in the last three years, and he joins Russell Henley, Johnson Wagner, and reigning champion Fabian Gomez in the field as former winners.

Elsewhere, wind specialists including Scott Piercy, Bill Haas, and Gary Woodland will make their 2017 bows, as will former major winner Justin Rose.

This Week’s Course Preview

Waialae Country Club is the polar opposite of last week’s outing Kapalua, and yet clearly the inclement weather conditions – principally the traditionally strong breeze – remain a key factor.

At just 7,044 yards for its Par 70 status, clearly Waialae is a track where the more measured players will come into their own.

 
Designed by Seth Raynor, this is a short course that is tree-lined and yet still exposed to the Hawaiian winds.  The small, grainy Bermuda greens offer a stiff test both of ball striking and putting, and the rough – which has varied in its thickness down the years – will clearly be a factor for errant drives.

In the past five years winning scores have ranged from -13 to -23, which shows just how much of a part the strength of the wind plays in this contest.

Weather Forecast for Honolulu, Hawaii

Beautiful sunshine will greet the players arriving on Hawaii this week – those already there will have had ample opportunity to work on their tans – with the mercury set to hit 80-86˚F this week.

Now, let’s talk about that wind factor.  Remarkably, the early forecasts suggest that the island breeze should not be stronger than 5 mph at any point during the week – naturally building in a localized increase – and so low scoring could well be the key.  Perhaps Spieth and Matsuyama might even have the chance of making the cut! (tongue firmly in cheek there).

Last Year’s Results from the Sony Open

Fabian Gomez bagged just the second PGA TOUR title of his career here last year, and the Argentine had shown signs of his subsequent win at the 2016 Tournament of Champions, where he finished sixth.  That’s an interesting note for DFS managers this week.

Gomez didn’t pull up any trees early on with a first round of 69, but from there he went into overdrive: carding 64, 65, and 62 to get to -20.  There he was joined by Brandt Snedeker, whose final round of 66 saw him cling onto the lead he had held since the opening round.

They both went par on the opening playoff hole, before Gomez held his nerve to sink a birdie on the replay of the 18th and secure his victory.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJEYHyoyQ78[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Saturday: 7:00pm EST – 10:30pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday: 6:00pm EST – 10:00pm EST (Golf Channel)
• Mobile Broadcasts:
  •  NA
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • Thursday-Saturday: 5:00pm EST – 11:00pm EST
  • Sunday: 5:00pm EST – 10:00pm EST

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sony Open this Week

The 2017 campaign has kicked off in fine style, and DraftKings for one isn’t resting on their laurels this week with a bounty of top contests.

• Casual PGA $20K Birdie: Just $3 gets you a shot at the $1k top prize here, and this is a contest with a twist: only players without experience badges are eligible to enter. For DFS newbies, this is a great place to start!

• PGA $200k Dogleg: For the more experienced manager, here’s the classic Dogleg contest that features a whopping $20k top prize for a $33 buy-in. Multi-entry is set at 150 places.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Sony Open

This is a short, tree-lined Par 70 test, and yet oddly accuracy off the tee doesn’t appear to be all that relevant.  Gomez was down at 50% in terms of hitting fairways in 2016, and only one of the last seven winners of the Sony Open has ranked top ten for Driving Accuracy.

Distance….nah, not so much either.  Gomez can give it a bump off the peg but this isn’t a course that can simply be overpowered, and really it’s approaching the green where the money is made.

The Argentine hit 77.78% of greens in regulation during his title run, and incredibly the last 15 winners have now all ranked top-12 for GIR.  With winds *perhaps* less of a factor in this year’s renewal, finding the dancefloor on time should be easier.

Gomez gained +1.405 strokes on the field with his putter, and played the Par 4s in -12 of his -20, so doing the simple stuff well is the key at Waialae.

And we can’t forget that Gomez finished sixth at the Tournament of Champions a week prior to his win; Snedeker, third at Kapalua, went on to tie for first a matter of days later here.  So clearly form in the ToC is a handy advantage.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Jimmy Walker (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 59.9, GPFP: 59.90 Salary: $9,900)

Instead of the usual solo horse pick, we’re running with two lower priced top-tier picks this week.  If ever there is a time to play your Jimmy Walker card, it is here.  His last three visits to Waialae have ended in finishes of 13-1-1, and there is simply nobody in the field who can match that course form.

The PGA Championship holder is an outstanding wind player as we know – but will that be a factor?  We’ll have to wait and see – but he is also an excellent iron player who makes up the majority of his strokes when approaching the green.  Perhaps even more importantly his GIR and Proximity stats for 2016 stand up to scrutiny.

He finished T9 in the Tournament of Champions and in truth didn’t do a lot wrong, so the omens are good for another title shot here.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 10th
• Greens in Regulation – 11th
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 23rd

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Brandt Snedeker (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 63.0, GPFP: 73.08 Salary: $9,700)

We’re willing to give Brandt another go this time around, hoping that the Kapalua experience will stand him in good stead for another shot at the Sony Open title.

Okay, so he didn’t really get into contention last week, but four rounds under par are at least a nice indicator that he is striking the ball nicely.  In 2016 he shot 63-65-66-66 here, and as an excellent green hitter this is a guy that really comes to the party on Par 70 tracks.

A proven winner, Sneds should be in the mix on Sunday.

Key Stats:

• Consecutive Cuts Made – 12th (surprisingly important here!)
• Scrambling – 18th
• Greens in Regulation – 20th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Charles Howell III (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 70.2, GPFP: 87.05 Salary: $7,800)

Having gone quite deep into the salary cap with our first two picks, here’s a great chance to restrain ourselves somewhat with a player with an excellent record at Waialae.

Chucky Three Sticks is not a winner as such, we know that, but at the price he offers excellent value for money.  He is a DFS points accumulator, especially in tests of GIR, and relevant form here (seven top-10s in total at Waialae) and elsewhere (T13 at the RSM Classic and T7 at the OHL Classic) suggests he should go well once again on this Hawaiian track he loves.

CHIII has trousered four consecutive top-20 finishes (albeit one of those was the Franklin Templeton Shootout), and he will be itching to get back into action on a track he loves.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 14th
• Strokes Gained: Approach the Green – 17th
• Greens in Regulation – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Jamie Lovemark (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 60.2, GPFP: 77.65 Salary: $7,800)

Jamie Lovemark is undoubtedly a player with an excellent short game, and after finishing seventh here in 2016 he should be high up on any DFS manager’s shopping list of lower-mid-tier picks.  But he probably won’t be, and that low ownership could be to our advantage.

He was in decent enough form prior to the Christmas break with a T20 at the Safeway Open backed by a T6 at the breezy RSM Classic, and 2017 could be the year where Lovemark makes his breakthrough.

Just look at these relevant stats so far in the 2017 campaign: 42nd for Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 40th for Strokes Gained: Total, 50th for Greens in Regulation, 28th for Scrambling and 22nd for Total Putting.  Needless to say, he has the tools to do very well here at Waialae.

Key Stats:

• Total Putting – 22nd
• Scrambling – 28th
• Strokes Gained: Approach the Green – 42nd

Low-Tier Pick:

Mackenzie Hughes (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 67.5, GPFP: 58.73 Salary: $7,100)

A number of Web.com Tour graduates have shown rather nicely in their early PGA TOUR careers; one of whom notably is Mackenzie Hughes.

The Canadian won the RSM Classic of course, another windy test of ball striking, and also showed well at the Safeway Open and Sanderson Farms Championship in his first pair of starts.  Yet he remains underrated by the DFS price-setters.

Hughes didn’t turn many heads last week at Kapalua, but look how he finished: only Spieth and Perez went lower than his last round of 68.  That can only be good for his confidence.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling from the Fringe – 1st
• Total Birdies – 5th
• Strokes Gained: Putting – 24th

Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open

Billy Horschel (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 65.2, GPFP: 52.60 Salary: $8,000)

Our first sleeper is a guy who ranks very highly for a number of key metrics this week, including GIR, Par 4 Scoring, and Par 70 specialties.  It’s just a happy coincidence that Billy Horschel is a former FedExCup winner!

He hasn’t really done the business at Waialae in the past, but then neither had Gomez (MC-67-MC) in the build up to his title win, nor 2012 champion Johnson Wagner; who has missed seven cuts in eight starts here!

Horschel is a crafty so-and-so with irons and wedges in hand, and if his putting game is strong – as it has been thus far this season – then who knows what he can achieve.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Putting – 9th
• Scoring Average – 10th
• Greens in Regulation – 16th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open

Anirban Lahiri (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 61.6, GPFP: 68.96 Salary: $7,900)

It’s been an excellent start to the campaign for Lahiri, who sits at 20th in the FedExCup rankings, with T3 at the CIMB Classic and T13 at the RSM as the standouts.

He might have been very frustrated that the Christmas break derailed his momentum, but figure that his excellent game from fairway to green will hold firm.

A prolific winner on the Asian and European Tour, Lahiri is still awaiting his first PGA TOUR title, but five top-25 returns from 40 starts is a sure sign of his excellent progress.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 2nd
• Birdie Average – 4th
• Scoring Average – 7th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Lineup Sample With Walker

Lineup Sample Without Walker

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”6.12%” bar_text=”3 out of 49 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”24.49%” bar_text=”12 out of 49 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.78%” bar_text=”19 out of 49 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 7 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 7 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”71.43″ bar_text=”35 out of 49 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram