Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Farmers Insurance Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open

The 2017 Farmers Insurance Open Sleeper Preview

The PGA TOUR stays in California for the second leg of its desert swing for this, the Farmers Insurance Open, which was known as the San Diego Open until sponsorship deals took hold.  Played at Torrey Pines, the event takes advantage of both the North and South courses at the famous venue, with both sharing duties on Thursday and Friday before the more difficult South track plays host to the weekend’s final 36 holes.

An elite field will make the first tee with two of the finest players on the planet in Dustin Johnson and Jason Day in the hunt for their first silverware of 2017.  Joining them will be Tiger Woods, who simply loves this Torrey Pines layout and is making his first full PGA TOUR appearance for more than 18 months, as well as a litany of US Ryder Cup heroes, including Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Jimmy Walker and JB Holmes.

Perhaps the standout entrant is Brandt Snedeker, the reigning and now two-time Farmers Insurance Open champion.  He followed up his triumph in 2012 with a victory 12 months ago in a storm-ravaged finale.  Snedeker was the only player to break par for his final 18 holes as a number of live contenders fell by the wayside.  The players will be hoping for much-improved conditions this time around, and judging by the early forecast their wishes look, by and large, to be granted.

The South course at Torrey Pines is the longest currently in rotation on the PGA TOUR at a whopping 7,698 yards, and with thick rough and small, lively greens it offers an exceptional test for all players.  It is no coincidence that, even weather permitting, the last three victors have all carded winning scores of single digits under par.

It will perhaps come as no surprise to learn that Tiger Woods, available at Vegas odds of just 33/1 this week, is the most decorated San Diego/Farmers Insurance Open champion with seven victories from 1999 to 2013, and next in line to the throne – and on his home course no less – is Tiger’s old nemesis Phil Mickelson, who has triumphed here three times with the last coming back in 2001.  Since 1999, Woods, Mickelson, and Brandt Snedeker have won 11 of the 18 hostings of this event, with an eclectic cast ranging from Jason Day and Bubba Watson to John Daly, Jose Maria Olazabal and Scott Stallings proving to be among the anomalies.

So we expect the cream to rise to the top at Torrey Pines, although long-priced Vegas hopefuls such as Stallings and Ben Crane have prospered here in the recent past.  So, there’s hope for a “sleeper” repeat this week!  That said, let’s take a look at some excellent candidates priced at 50/1 or greater odds this week.

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The 2017 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The 2017 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Brendan Steele – Vegas Odds 50/1 – A Californian who seems to love playing in his home State, Steele has already won this season at October’s Safeway Open.  Since then he has bagged a pair of sixth-place finishes at the Tournament of Champions and last week’s CareerBuilder Challenge, and realistically it would be no surprise if he goes close once again here.  We can deduce that course form is important at Torrey Pines given the number of repeat winners in recent years, and while Steele has never bettered T17 here at least he has made the cut in each of his last four trips.  Given his improved form of late, that T17 could well be improved upon this week.

JB Holmes – Vegas Odds 50/1 – Long hitter?  Check.  In form?  Check.  Course history?  Check.  JB Holmes ticks off three of the most important boxes this week, and having enjoyed a key role in Team USA’s Ryder Cup team we can expect the 34-year-old to play with a certain swagger in 2017.  It certainly enhanced his performance at the Hero World Challenge, where he fired in a hugely impressive opening round of 64.  His return of 6-2-23 at Torrey Pines identifies a course that suits his eye, and that’s no huge surprise given that nobody drove the ball further in 2016.

Kevin Chappell – Vegas Odds 60/1 – Torrey Pines has not, historically, been a happy hunting ground for Kevin Chappell – a surprise given he is Californian born and bred, but there have been few players as improved as the 30-year-old in the past six months or so.  Since finishing second at THE PLAYERS Championship in May ’16, Chappell recorded a further trio of top-three finishes, culminating in a playoff loss at the TOUR Championship in September.  The reason we like Chappell this week is because he seems to love windy conditions, as a run of 2-4-9 at the RSM Classic, RBC Heritage, and Texas Open highlights.  He ranked inside the world’s top-30 in 2016 for Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Driving; weapons that should serve him well this week.

Tony Finau – Vegas Odds 60/1 – Some young players burst onto the scene with an eye-catching performance or two, while others take their time to mature into a world-class talent.  We put Finau in the latter category, although his maiden Tour win in 2016 appears to have sparked something.  Seven top-25 returns immediately after confirmed his importance to DFS managers, and in 2017 thus far he has gone 9-20, with five of his last seven rounds being in the 60s.  Few can match Finau’s length off the tee (10th for Driving Distance) or Par 5 Scoring ability (40th), so he is very much a live contender in San Diego.

Jason Kokrak – Vegas Odds 150/1 – Anyone who can go long off the tee has a chance this week as long as the second half of their game is in good working order, and ranking 16th in 2016 for Driving Distance offers Jason Kokrak’s supporters hope.  He hasn’t been seen this year as of yet – plenty of time to work on his irons and short game – but a tremendous showing in the FedExCup events, with three consecutive top-20s, shows he’s comfortable in elite company.  At Torrey Pines 12 months ago he was another hampered by the weather: a final round of 80 ending his title hopes.  Kokrak will be hoping for better this time around.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open here.

Cover photo via Instagram