Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Waste Management Phoenix Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview

Wow, what a breathless ending to the Farmers Insurance Open that was last week.  In an event played in brutally windy conditions throughout, and with some nine players at some point or other sharing the lead during the final round, it was the prodigiously talented Jon Rahm who eventually got over the line with an incredible Sunday 65; of which the back nine was played in just 30.

Given how all around him were struggling to keep their game together as the winds got stronger, we quite impressed with Rahm’s ability to keep his cool – the Spaniard will be one to watch this year, particularly in the US Open.

Now the PGA TOUR waves goodbye to its Californian jaunt and heads east to Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a tournament which has become a firm favorite among golf fans specifically for its TPC Scottsdale home.  The famous ‘Coliseum’ 16th hole has become the stuff of legend, and it will be interesting to see how many more dreams of glory will be shattered in front of a packed auditorium come Sunday.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Farmers’ Insurance Open

It was a wild week at Torrey Pines, and not many people expected the likes of Justin Day, Dustin Johnson, Jimmy Walker, and Rickie Fowler to miss the cut.  John Rahm came out of nowhere to surprise everyone with an electric round on Sunday.  Kudos to you John!

In total, we made four cuts of the seven picks last week including a T2 finish from Charles Howell and two T20 finishes from Gary Woodland and Brendan Steele.  Woodland had one eagle, thirteen birdies, fifty pars, and one bogey-free round en route to 75.5 fantasy points.  Howell III truly was a solid pick at $7,300 as he came in with seventeen birdies, one eagle and his T2 finish earning him an additional 20 bonus fantasy points.

Looking further down the rosters our Tuesday Sleeper Report featured Tony Finau at 60/1 odds and a $7,700 dollar price tag.  Finau seriously outperformed his DraftKings price tag by banking a T4 finish and 95.5 fantasy points on the week.

The 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open Field

Three of the world’s hottest golfing talents will do battle in Arizona, with Hideki Matsuyama defending the trophy he won at the expense of a heartbroken Rickie Fowler in a playoff last year.  Hoping to wrestle the silverware away from the Japanese sensation will be Justin Thomas, incredibly looking for his fourth win of the season already, and Jordan Spieth, JT’s great friend who you suspect wouldn’t mind some of the limelight back.

 
That triumvirate will be joined by Fowler, no doubt looking for redemption, twice runner-up Bubba Watson, three-time winner Phil Mickelson in his 28th appearance at Scottsdale, and Ryder Cup champions JB Holmes, Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, and Brooks Koepka.

Europe is well represented here as well with Russell Knox, Shane Lowry, and debutant Andrew Johnston taking their bow, while the likes of Charles Howell III and Tony Finau will be looking to kick on from their near misses in San Diego.

This Week’s Course Preview

TPC Scottsdale is one of the jewels in the PGA TOUR’s crown, and with some 500,000 visitors to the course each year it can also lay claim to being one of the most populated (and loudest!).

Measuring 7,266 yards for its Par 71, Scottsdale is a fairly tough test of credentials; barring Phil Mickelson’s outlier victory in 2013 of -28, the last four victories have come at either -15 or -16, so the players can expect another war of attrition in the desert.

 
The track is said to be Links-style in nature, and a renovation prior to the 2015 hosting resulted in resurfaced greens, additional bunkers and some 100 yards added to the course length.  Matsuyama’s -14 in regulation play was the ‘worst’ winning score here since 2009.

Scottsdale is the classic ‘all-rounders’ track, with a list of former winners ranging from boomers like JB Holmes and Brooks Koepka, short-game kings like Phil Mickelson and putt-the-lights-out merchants such as Aaron Baddeley.

The focal point of the course has to be those closing three holes, however.  The Par Three Coliseum (16th) is wholly surrounded by grandstands with some 20,000 cramming in to create a heart-racing atmosphere.  The scoring average in 2016 here was 3.018, with 16% of players shooting a birdie, 17% going one-over and the rest downing in three.  It is an outstanding test of any potential winners’ intestinal fortitude.

The 17th is a driveable Par 4 but with water lurking menacingly on the left of the green – many will remember this hazard as the ultimate downfall of Fowler 12 months ago.  Some 37% of attempts resulted in a birdie last year, so this could be where prospective champions get themselves in front.

And a notoriously tricky Par 4 ends proceedings, with 86% of players getting around the eighteenth in par or worse in 2016.  What an exciting conclusion we may well enjoy on Sunday!

Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ

The forecast is looking rather more wholesome than it has for a while on the PGA TOUR circuit, with sunshine and warm temperatures likely to greet the players on Thursday.

Winds will pick up but not too much – anything from 5 mph to 10 mph gusts are anticipated, with low humidity helping to maximize distance off the tee and through the air.

Last Year’s Results from the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Last year’s renewal degenerated into a fascinating toe-to-toe brawl between Matsuyama and Fowler, whose rounds of 65-70-68-67 perfectly mirrored each other.  It would take four playoff holes to eventually separate them, with Fowler’s bogey at the 17th doing the damage.  Perhaps it was this victory, under such nerve-shredding pressure, that transformed the Japanese star into the phenom he is today.

Others had chances, mind you.  Harris English fired 66 for his final eighteen to get himself into the picture, while Danny Lee was barely out of contention until playing the front nine of his final round in +3.

Grand old timer Boo Weekley’s sandwich-filling of 68-65 ensured that he completed the top five, with JB Holmes, John Huh, Shane Lowry, Bryce Molder, and Will Wilcox making up the rest of the top-10.

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS).
• Mobile Broadcasts (PGA TOUR LIVE):
  • Thursday-Friday, 9 a.m.-3 p.m. ET (featured groups), 3-7 p.m. (featured holes).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 11:30 a.m.-6 p.m. (featured holes).
• PGA TOUR LIVE ON TWITTER:
  • Thursday-Friday, 9-10:30 a.m. ET.
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • Thursday-Friday, 1-7 p.m. ET
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-6 p.m ET

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open this Week

A long and varied slate has been created for this week’s event at DraftKings, meaning DFS lovers of all budgets have plenty to get involved with:

Here’s one for those counting the pennies and one for the high rollers:

• PGA $325K Birdie: A $3 buy-in offers a shot at the $20,000 top prize here, and with the top 2000 players earning a minimum of $12 – that’s a 400% return on your investment – this is an enticing prospect for DFS managers looking to build their bankroll.

• PGA $60k Scramble: For those with a bit more moolah to work with, how about a punt at the $5,000 top prize in this 3468-team contest?  You’ll only have to stump up $20 to enter, with multi-entry set at three teams for those who like to spread their risk.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Waste Management Phoenix Open 

TPC Scottsdale seems to be the kind of track where players can find themselves in an unexpected run of form.  Take Matsuyama in 2016, for example.  He had missed the cut a week earlier at the Farmers Insurance Open courtesy of a second round of 76, but clearly course history is key here as the youngster – who had finished 4-2 in his prior two visits to the course – took the honors in Arizona.

Back in 2012 it was the scene of redemption for Kyle Stanley, who threw away a six-shot lead at the Farmers – and a three-shot cushion heading into the final hole – in the lead-up to the Phoenix Open, but here he overcame an eight-shot deficit heading into the final 18 to win by one from Ben Crane; the third largest comeback in PGA TOUR history.  Needless to say, this is an event with an occasionally bizarre history.

As a shortish Par 71, it won’t come as any surprise to learn that hitting greens – and lots of them – is key to victory.  Matsuyama landed on 77.78%, and yet his activity off the tee was below par: just 55% of fairways hit, and just 0.835 strokes gained on the field off the peg.

But with some +3.056 shots gained on the rest from tee-to-green, clearly a magical short game is required to get the job done: no wonder Ol’ Lefty is a three-time winner here and holds both the 18 and 72-hole course records.

Matsuyama didn’t putt particularly well – he didn’t need to, such was his close proximity to the hole – and his ability to play the regulation holes well (-9 of his -14 tally was earned on the Par 4s) clearly we are looking for bread-and-butter players with first-class short games this week in our draft.  Form, apparently, is optional!

For any DFS managers looking for the obligatory local angle, Kevin Stadler – a Scottsdale native – lifted this trophy in 2014; his only PGA TOUR triumph.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open 

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

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