Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – WGC-Mexico Championship

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the WGC-Mexico Championship

 The WGC-Mexico Championship Sleeper Preview

The first of the World Golf Championship events of the calendar year has made a rather dramatic leap from Donald Trump owned Doral in Florida to – irony of ironies – Mexico City.  As such, the former WGC-Cadillac Championship has been re-branded as the WGC-Mexico Championship, and will be hosted by the Club de Golf Chapultepec in the country’s capital.

It has been a great few weeks for Vegas punters with three consecutive favorites winning prior to Rickie Fowler, listed second with the sportsbooks behind Adam Scott, taking the honors at the Honda Classic last time out.  He was the third member of the ‘frat pack,’ alongside Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, to lift a trophy in 2017.

Picking a winner this week looks damn tricky, it has to be said, with most of the world’s top 50 golfers making the trip.  There’s four of the best on the planet (Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, and the returning Rory McIlroy), a litany of major winners (Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Jimmy Walker, et al) and players from both sides of the Ryder Cup divide (Sergio Garcia, Brandt Snedeker, Patrick Reed, Martin Kaymer, and so on).  There are also probably another 20 guys who could legitimately walk off with the $1.6 million winner’s check.

The task of unearthing a potential winner is made more difficult by the fact that this is the first major tournament that Chapultepec has hosted in more than two decades, and the last competitive outing was the stats-less Mexican Open of 2014.

Despite a recent renovation, we do have some idea of how this stretch will play.  Measuring 7,330 yards for its Par 71, the fairways and rough are Kikuyu grass and the greens Poa Annua, which is a pretty unique combination.  There are some pretty testing Par 3s but plenty of scoring opportunities on the longer holes with the extreme altitude adding plenty of length off the tee.

A winning score of -20 or lower is being mooted, and even with some rain and winds forecast the suggestion is that a low-scoring shootout is likely to ensue.  The Mexican Open winner, Oscar Alvarez – an unheralded player on the Latino American Tour – won with a score of -17 and played the trio of Par 5s at -9, which gives an insight into how tame-able those will be.  Even the undulating greens, which feature shelves and elevation changes, are unlikely to stop the world’s best in full flight.

The quality of players in this field means that there are some great sleeper options at really good Vegas prices to enjoy.  We expect at least one of these “long shots” to be in the mix come Sunday:

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The WGC-Mexico Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The WGC-Mexico Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Gary Woodland – Vegas Odds 50/1 – Since returning to work with his former mentor Butch Harmon the improvement in Woodland’s game has been staggering.  Always a kind of perennial nearly man on the PGA TOUR, he looks ready to return to the winner’s circle sooner rather than later.  His confidence is back and so is his form: he has finished top-10 in 50% of his starts this season!  That includes two notable runners-up spots: one at the OHL Classic on Mexican soil, and the other last time out at PGA National.  There he played the Par 5s at -6 and hit more than three-quarters of fairways – not bad for a bomber averaging 305 yards off the peg!

Francesco Molinari – Vegas Odds 60/1 – When taking a leap into the unknown it makes sense to get behind a form horse, and few can lay claim to be striking the ball as nicely as the Italian Stallion at present.  A string of form dating back to October reads 6-4-12-14-MC-14, so with the unknowns attached to a new course at least Molinari is buzzing with confidence to tackle a new challenge.  He putted well on Poa Annua throughout the Californian Swing, ranks 17th on Tour for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, and has the added advantage of his European Tour upbringing; which means he will have plenty of experience with Kikuyu grass.

Jimmy Walker – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Here is one of those players who can be a tad ‘boom or bust,’ but Jimmy Walker’s mojo appears to be in good stead given a formline of 21-11-55.  We’re always happy to have a recent major winner on side at this kind of price, and should the weather conditions take a turn for the worse – and the forecast is changing by the hour at present – then the former Sony Open champ is a good man to back.  Capable of mixing it with the best of them, let’s hope Walker continues his recent upward trend rather than having one of these weeks where he seemingly forgets how to play the game.

Charl Schwartzel – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Here’s another South African major winner who has climbed back into the winner’s circle as recently as 2016 at the Valspar Championship, and some onlookers who have walked the Chapultepec course have commented on its similarities with Augusta; the site of Schwartzel’s Masters triumph back in 2011.  An ability to play in wet and breezy conditions (he’s a four-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Championship) may just come in handy too.

Jhonattan Vegas – Vegas Odds 125/1 – Back-to-back top-20 finishes – which culminated with a T4 at the Honda Classic – is a nice angle in this week for the often-underrated Jonny Vegas. In fact, the Venezuelan has made the weekend in each of his last eight starts; there’s no cut mark to worry about here obviously, but that stat is a nice identifier of his consistency at present.  A top-10 return from the OHL Classic shows a penchant for Mexican golf, and few players play Par 5s as well as Vegas, who ranks 29th on tour for Par 5: Birdie or Better Leaders.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the WGC-Mexico Championship here.

Cover photo via Instagram