Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – WGC-Mexico Championship

 

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the WGC-Mexico Championship

2017 WGC-Mexico Championship Fantasy Preview

Our hopes of a fourth consecutive winner were squandered at the Honda Classic first by the inability of Wes Bryan to convert an early lead, and more significantly the excellence of Rickie Fowler, who despite a Sunday wobble on the front nine was head and shoulders above the rest of the field.  After watching his buddies Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas return to the winner’s circle this year, this was Fowler’s first triumph in over a year.

This week we move on to the first World Golf Championship event of the calendar year.  These WGC events were devised by the International Federation of PGA Tours to bring the best players from around the world together in one place to contest for a handsome paycheck of around $1.6 million—that helps to focus the mind!  It’s no wonder that the last five winners of this event – in which time it has been called the WGC-American Express Championship and the WGC=Cadillac Championship, amongst other things – have been the cream of the crop: Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods and Justin Rose.

Following the controversy surrounding his presidential campaign, this tournament – which has led a nomadic existence since its inception – will not be hosted by Donald Trump’s Doral club in Miami, Florida.  Previous renewals have been hosted in England, Spain, Ireland, and the US, but as the name suggests the 2017 edition will be in Mexico at the Club de Golf Chapultepec.  The bad news is that this venue has rarely hosted an event of any magnitude in the past decade and so no relevant course fantasy stats are available this week!

But with such an elite field gathering, and knowing that the best in the business generally bring their A-Games in these WGC competitions, any of the classier operators can be expected to triumph.  This ‘mini major’ offers a fascinating glimpse into who’s hot – and who’s not – heading into springtime and with Augusta emerging on the horizon.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Honda Classic

Well, nobody’s perfect when it comes to fantasy and even though we manged to pull out three consecutive wins the month-long sweep was not in the cards as we found ourselves bitten by the Bear Trap.

We’ll admit that overall it wasn’t a great week for our selections as our top pick, Sergio Garcia, finishing with a no-so-exciting T14 (74 fantasy points).  Our shining light was our Top Sleeper pick Wesley Bryan who ended up with a T4 finish and 88.5 fantasy points making him a high value at just $6,600.  It seems like a lot of our fantasy members picked up Bryan this week and we hoped it helped soften the blow.

 

The only thing to do after a bad week is bounce back strong and get back in the winner’s circle; and we plan on doing exactly that this Sunday.

The 2017 WGC-Mexico Championship Field

A veritable list of world golf’s great and good, the field for the WGC-Mexico Championship is as strong as you would expect to see outside of a major.

Rory McIlroy makes his return following a rib injury, and he will be joined by an elite brigade which features newly minted OWGR No. 1 Dustin Johnson, along with Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth.  The only missing party from the head of the world rankings is Jason Day, who is suffering with a myriad of injuries once again.

There is a healthy European contingent in the field too, with Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose the standout picks alongside Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, and Tyrrell Hatton, whose burgeoning reputation continues to grow after an impressive showing at the Honda Classic last time out.

The southern hemisphere is also well represented with defending champion Adam Scott and major winners Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen in the house, while young phenoms like Fowler, Jon Rahm, Emiliano Grillo, and Thomas Pieters will be looking to make their mark in a tournament of such esteem.

This Week’s Course Preview

Unfortunately, little is known about Club de Golf Chapultepec in a competitive sense; its last major hosting was the 2014 Mexican Open, which as part of the Latino America Tour means that no stats are available to us in factoring into our draft.

The winner of that event was Oscar Alvarez, who charged home with a total score of -17.  He played the Par 3s at level par, the Par 4s at -8 and the trio of Par 5s at -9.

What we do know is that we are switching back to Poa Annua greens this week, with fairways and rough of the tricky Kikuyu grass variety, which when wet is a real pain to play out of – as anybody who witnessed the European Tour’s Jo’burg Open last week will testify.

A course guide refers to a selection of tricky Par 3s (evidence by Alvarez’s relative struggles at the Mexican Open), a handful of driveable Par 4s and a selection of tougher, uphill gradients which totally diminish the advantages afforded at playing at altitude.

As we know, Alvarez played the Par 5s at -9; that’s twelve holes in total at minus nine.  Doing the business on the longer stretches will be essential.

As far as correlating courses go we are going out on a limb, but we have El Camaleon (which hosts the OHL Classic) as a guide; this is a Par 71 played out in Mexico, while TPC Summerlin (Shriners) is Bentgrass but a Par 71 played at altitude.  A quick glance to the recent Californian Swing will reveal who is putting well on Poa Annua at present.

Weather Forecast for Mexico City, Mexico

The good news is that Thursday is set fair, with sunny spells, minimal winds and a top temperature of 75 degrees.

But then wind picks up overnight and is expected to bring with it some downpours, with an 80% chance of precipitation predicted on Friday and then 60% on both Saturday and Sunday.

That said, the rains are expected to arrive later in the day from Friday-Sunday, and so an early draw bias of Thursday late/Friday early is a possibility.  Keep your eyes peeled on the forecast leading up to the first tee.

Last Year’s Results from the WGC-Cadillac Championship

We can only take last year’s results at the WGC-Cadillac Championship with a pinch of salt as that event was hosted at Doral, a course rather different in character to Club de Golf Chapultepec.

Adam Scott was the winner on that occasion as he captured the second title of his Florida Swing after triumphing at the Honda Classic as well.  Incredibly the Aussie began his final round with a pair of double bogeys, and seemed all but out of the contest after a six-shot deficit was opened up by Bubba Watson.

But six birdies in his next nine holes brought him back into the equation, and an act of escapology at the 18th when plugged behind a tree secured the 13th title of his career.  It was the third time that Bubba was the bridesmaid in the various iterations of this tournament.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPiird-Y4XY[/embedyt]

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-Mexico Championship this Week

DraftKings published their slate of contests early this week and that is usually an indicator that they are expecting plenty of traffic for the WGC-Mexico Championship.  More players + a quality field = plenty of variance and low ownership!

• PGA $500K Pressure Putt: If you’ve been saving up your bankroll for a big contest to come along then look at this: a $400 buy-in gives you a shot at the $100k top prize!  You’ll pocket $1k just for finishing in the top 85 of this 1388 team contest.

• PGA $75k Birdie: Lower rollers should try this $5 contest; it’s three-entry per person max and a $5k jackpot prize.

In addition to the usual DraftKings games this week, we thought we’d introduce you to something new, unique, and even a bit easier to win given the contest structure.

That’s right, there’s a new DFS game in town and it’s called DRAFT.  Visit PlayDRAFT.com for more details on how their weekly golf contests work.

Best of all, our colleagues over at The Golf Podcast have even worked in a coupon code for us.  First-time players can use coupon code ‘golfpodcast‘ at checkout for a 100% deposit bonus.  Download the app here on iTunes and Android.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC-Mexico Championship

We are taking something of a leap into the unknown here without any measurable golf to take into consideration, but the consensus is that Club de Golf Chapultepec is a decent all-round test of ability.

The bombers would ordinarily be fancied given that some of the Par 4s are attackable off the tee and scoring opportunities abound on the longer holes, but there are two other factors to take into consideration: the altitude will level the playing field as far as length off the tee is concerned, and secondly Kikuyu grass is an absolute nightmare to play out of when wet; you don’t want to be in the rough stuff here.

So our first key building block will be Total Driving, as length and accuracy will be of importance.

Putting on Poa Annua appeals to the senses of some more than others and particularly when greens on soft and squidgy, so form with the short stick on these surfaces is key.

It depends on the weather to some extent but a winning score of around -20 is in the offing, and so having players on side who are comfortable in a shootout is essential.  Avoiding trouble on the Par 3s, and making the most of any chances on Par 5s, is central to a successful week at this stretch.

For us, the key is a balanced draft this week.  On a new course in an unusual country for some of these guys, picking out a winner is not an easy task.  So, despite the logic of late which has been to pick the heavy-hitters (Matsuyama, Spieth, DJ, and Fowler were all the Vegas favorites prior to the start of their wins), here our strategy is to spread our salary cap among a roster that should all, hopefully, perform well in total.

Remember, there is no cut mark in this 70-man invitational event, so we need guys who are going to score well for four days straight.

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-Mexico Championship

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member? Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Mexico Championship

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Justin Rose (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 76.8, GPFP: 84.43, Salary: $9,600)

With a trio of top-five finishes to his name in his last four starts, it’s fair to say that Rose has recovered from the injury woes that decimated his 2016 campaign.

He putted nicely in his last outing on the Poa Annua of Riviera at the Genesis Open, and ranked 32nd that week for Total Driving, so the Englishman can call upon two functioning aspects of his game this time around.

Rose won at least once a year on the PGA TOUR from 2010-2015, and an injury-ravaged 2016 put an end to that sequence.  He will be desperate to return to the winner’s circle sooner rather than later.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee to Green – 5th
• Par 5: Birdie or Better Leaders – 12th
• Par 3 Scoring Average – 22nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Jon Rahm (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 94.1, GPFP: 117.66, Salary: $9,000)

For the past year or so Jon Rahm has been turning up at events across North America and slaying courses that he has never seen before, and that is a skill that bodes well for this Club de Golf Chapultepec test that few in the field will have sampled.

The reason behind Rahm’s versatility is that he is an excellent all-around golfer who hits the ball a long way and who can putt on all surfaces.  He is a PGA TOUR winner as well now of course, and will feel at home in this excellent company.

Remember those two correlating courses we mentioned earlier?  Rahm finished T10 in the OHL Classic as an amateur back in 2015, and returned a T15 verdict at Shriners earlier this season. A s box-ticking exercises go, we like the Spaniard’s chances this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 5th
• Greens in Regulation – 16th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Sergio Garcia (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 89.3, GPFP: 99.16, Salary: $8,500)

We go in again with another Spaniard who is playing some excellent golf at the moment even if his results don’t necessarily reflect that.

T49 at the Genesis Open, backed by T14 at the Honda Classic, is hardly the stuff of legend, but he continues to gain plenty of strokes from tee-to-green (+2.10 last week) and so only needs his putter to heat up to go close to a tenth PGA TOUR title.

We truly believe (famous last words!) that the advantage of the big guns in this event is lessened by a.) playing outside of the US, and b.) the Kikuyu grass surfaces, and instead players who regularly play their golf in different countries, and who have teed up regularly in South Africa where Kikuyu is abundant, will be at an advantage.  That’s the logic anyway!

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 3rd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 3rd
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 13th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

Pat Perez (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 66.8, GPFP: 72.18, Salary: $7,400)

Born in Phoenix but with Mexican heritage, it must have been a great moment for Pat Perez to end his seven-year drought of silverware on his native Mexico turf at the OHL Classic earlier this season.

His form has been excellent throughout the campaign so far, and even after a withdrawal from the WM Phoenix Open threatened to derail his progress he has since returned with T14 at Pebble Beach and T28 at Riviera.

His last golfing return to Mexico brought him so much joy; can he repeat the dose this week?

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 16th
• Birdie Average – 17th
• Scoring Average – 22nd

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Louis Oosthuizen (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 53.3, GPFP: 73.87, Salary: $7,200)

The South African is in sneaky good form at present, and so might just fly under the radar this week.

He’s made four competitive starts Stateside this season, finishing 45-41-3-21, and there is a fifth at the World Super 6 event in Australia two weeks ago to factor in as well.

Oost will love the Kikuyu grass that he is so used to, and he hit 75% of greens at a tough PGA National test last week so he should go well in more forgiving conditions in Mexico.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 15th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 13th

Sleeper Pick for The Honda Classic

Brandon Stone (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 80.4, GPFP: 64.33, Salary: $7,400)

A prolific winner on the Kikuyu grass of his South African homeland, Brandon Stone hasn’t really showed his best form in his PGA TOUR starts so far in his career, but he heads to Mexico in good heart.

He finished his rain-ravaged jaunt at the Jo’burg Open with 65-67 to steal a share of fourth place, and on a track where he has never particularly shone that is an excellent marker of good form.

Stone has missed the cut in his two Tour starts to date this year, but lest we forget there is no cut in Mexico and so he will make the weekend come what may.  That will take the pressure off, and as anybody who watches him play on a regular basis will tell you this South African can shoot low with the best of them.

Key Stats (European Tour):

• Stroke Average: 68.40
• Greens in Regulation: 77.80%
• Average Putts per Round: 29.57

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Mexico Championship

Thomas Pieters (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 61.5, GPFP: 59.04, Salary: $6,800)

This supremely-talented young Belgian might be a victim of low ownership this week given his missed cut at PGA National, and that plays into canny daily fantasy gamers’ hands.

PGA National was never going to be the kind of course in which Pieters thrives; he needs more room off the tee and long holes to attack; the patience game in low-scoring conditions is not his forte.

We’re expecting this WGC-Mexico Championship to be a low-scoring shootout, and as such Pieters will surely rack up plenty of fantasy points.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 2nd
• SG: Total – 12th
• Birdie Average – 14th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup #1

Sample Lineup #2

[/membership]

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”7 out of 98 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.41%” bar_text=”20 out of 98 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”37.76%” bar_text=”37 out of 98 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”21.42%” bar_text=”3 out of 14 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”1 out of 14 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”68.37″ bar_text=”67 out of 98 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 WGC-Mexico Championship with other Premium Members.

---

Cover Photo via Instagram