Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Valspar Championship

 

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Valspar Championship

2017 Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview

A resounding success: that’s the best way to describe the WGC’s move of their early Spring tournament to Mexico.  The Club de Golf Chapultepec track played beautifully and looked to be in stunning condition, and a perfect weekend would have been rounded off perfectly if our pick, Jon Rahm, could have chased down eventual winner Dustin Johnson.  As it was, the Spaniard just ran out of time and had to settle for a share of third place.

DJ’s win confirmed his status as the world’s premier golfer right now, and he has become the Vegas sportsbooks’ favorite for The Masters ahead of Jordan Spieth.  His triumph in Mexico also continued the trend of the most fancied players taking the honors, dating back to Hideki Matsuyama’s win at the Phoenix Open.  Since then the PGA TOUR trophy holders have been Spieth, DJ (x2), and Rickie Fowler, so this ‘cream rising to the top’ narrative has to be a key angle for DFS gamers this week.

The Tour heads back to Florida on Thursday for the Valspar Championship, held annually at the tricky Copperhead course at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbour.  This is a tough old test of ball striking, but with weather conditions set mostly fair for the four days we should see some sublime golf on this classic ball-strikers track.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the WGC-Mexico Championship

It was a wild ride in Mexico and thankfully we steered clear of Henrik Stenson last week.  The Swede withdrew early in the week mid-round causing a lot of fantasy players to throw in the towel before Round 2.  If you followed our advice and stayed away from him in favor of Rahm or Garcia it was a great chance for you to cash in big as those players were “knocked out” early.

Our Top Picks last week including Rose, Rahm, Garcia, Perez, and Pieters.  Rahm had the most impressive week finishing T3 with almost 95 fantasy points and end up being our most solid pick, especially at a bargain $9,000 price tag!  Rahm even held the lead briefly on Sunday but was outgunned by the unstoppable Dustin Johnson.

Unfortunately our Top Tier fantasy play was Rose who we chose at $9,600 over the enormously expensive Dustin Johnson in order to create a more well-rounded roster in the WGC no-cut event, but in the end, the best lineup this week contained a combination of DJ, Pieters, Rahm, Fleetwood, and the unexpected Ross Fisher.

DJ’s dominance will keep him as a heavy Vegas favorite as move into the Majors and even our GPFP indicators had him in the top spot last week.  But again, the heavy favorites with the big price tags are hard to justify when you need production from the low-end of your roster in these no-cut events.

Even without DJ in the lineup we still managed to finish the week in Mexico with three Top 12 finishes.

The 2017 Valspar Championship Field

The headline acts this week are Justin Thomas, looking to build on his stellar start to the 2017 campaign, and Henrik Stenson, who presumably will be happy just to be back on American soil after suffering the most euphemistic of ‘upset stomachs’ in Mexico, forcing his early withdrawal.

It’s a pretty spare field in truth, with only eight of the top 30 players in the world present in Florida, but defending champion Charl Schwartzel will be looking to retain his crown ahead of a solid mix of quality operators (Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland, Russell Knox, Bubba Watson, Bill Haas, etc) and up-and-coming young talents (Daniel Berger, Byeong-Hun An, Wes Bryan, Ollie Schniederjans, and more).

Given the technical nature of the track, older heads such as Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker, and Sean O’Hair might just fancy their chances too.

This Week’s Course Preview

In some respects, Copperhead is an a-typical Florida golf course, it is leafy, green, and lush, with tree-lined fairways and multiple doglegs (sometimes on the same hole!) ensuring that course management is an essential skill here; keep in mind that just 17 players finished under par here in 2016.

At 7,340 yards for its Par 71, the stroke average of these 18 holes liberally exceeds par.  Bunkers have been added closer to the putting surfaces to enhance the test yet further, with Bermudagrass greens running pretty fast at 11.5 on the stimp.

This is a stretch that gives with one hand and takes with the other.  Holes 16-18 are known as the ‘Snake Pit’, and as the name suggests can be pretty unforgiving.  The trio is a fantastic way to bring to a close a tournament, and the eventual champion will have earned their silverware.

But there are opportunities too: Schwartzel played the Par 5s at -9 in his winning effort 12 months ago; not bad considering he finished at -7!  Getting off to a good start on both sets of nine at the first, eleventh and fourteenth holes is key.

Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, Florida

Conditions look set to be rather nice in Florida this week, with sunshine and some cloud-cover anticipated with an average temperature of 80 degrees.

Winds have been a feature of the Valspar Championship in the past despite the tree-lined shelter, although nothing particularly sinister has been forecast this week.

A quick note should be made about Sunday, however.  The long-range forecast suggests scattered showers are expected, with gusts reaching up to 15 mph.  The nature of rain showers dictates that Palm Harbor might not be affected, but it is worth bearing in mind if dark clouds roll over head as the tournament reaches its business end.

Last Year’s Results from the Valspar Championship

A late rally from Charl Schwartzel was enough to get the job done 12 months ago.  The South African was five shots adrift ahead of the final round, and still had to make up three on the back nine.  But a 65ft birdie putt was enough to get him into a playoff with Bill Haas who finished at -7, and after the American bogeyed the first extra hole Schwartzel claimed his first win on U.S. soil since his triumph in the 2011 Masters.

An honorable mention must go to Lee McCoy, an amateur who is a member at Innisbrook and claims to have played the Copperhead course ‘maybe a 1000 times.’  His fourth place finish was testament to that.

The likes of Graeme De Laet and Charlie Hoffman walked away wondering what might have been a year ago.  Both firmly in contention heading into Sunday, they shot 75 apiece to end any hopes they might have had of clinching the trophy.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valspar Championship this Week

We love events like this: a wide open field guarantees plenty of variance in team selection, and a test like Copperhead which is anything but a birdie fest tests the skills of even the wiliest of DFS drafters.  That said, here’s the DraftKings action we like this week:

• PGA $400K Birdie: The monster is back! A $3 buy in, with 150 team multi-entry, to battle it out for the $25k top prize. Finish in the top 24,400 out of 156,000 to double your stake as a minimum.

• PGA $50k Scramble: If you prefer low multi-entry contests then how about this: $20 buy-in, with just three entries per player with a guaranteed total prize pot of $50k!

In addition to the usual DraftKings games this week, we thought we’d introduce you to something new, unique, and even a bit easier to win given the contest structure.

That’s right, there’s a new DFS game in town and it’s called DRAFT.  Visit PlayDRAFT.com for more details on how their weekly golf contests work.

Best of all, our colleagues over at The Golf Podcast have even worked in a coupon code for us.  First-time players can use coupon code ‘golfpodcast‘ at checkout for a 100% deposit bonus.  Download the app here on iTunes and Android.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valspar Championship

Despite its tricky nature – the last four winning scores have ranged from -7 to -10 – it seems as though tee work is of little importance on this Copperhead track.  Schwartzel hit just 44% of fairways last year at an average of 292 yards, so we could argue to some extent that neither driving accuracy nor distance are a huge factor here.

Clearly, that means that strong iron play, scrambling where required, and a hot putter will go some way towards ensuring a decent showing on the leaderboard.  Eleven of the last fifteen winners have all ranked inside the top-20 for Greens in Regulation (Schwartzel found 65% of greens on time), and his strokes gained on the field stats – +2.32 tee-to-green, +1.96 on approach – confirm that sentiment compared to other aspects of his game (-0.11 off the tee, +0.89 putting).

We’ve already mentioned the importance of the Par 5s at Copperhead and that simply cannot be underestimated.  Schwartzel played these at -9 compared to level for the Par 3s and +2 for the Par 4s; so this is where our champion will be made this week!

There are some obvious correlations as far as similar courses go.  The Honda Classic was played at tough PGA National just two weeks ago, and as another stern Floridian test is well worthy of consideration.

Plus, there have been four winners of both the Valspar and Sony Open (at Waialae) events in Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, KJ Choi, and John Huston, while Singh, Jordan Spieth, Sean O’Hair, and John Senden have all done the Valspar-John Deere Classic double.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Justin Thomas (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 90.6, GPFP: 117.76 Salary: $11,900)

This week seems as good a time as any to get JT back on board.  After his incredible exploits earlier in the season, it has been a lean time of late for the 23-year-old but he got himself back into title contention in Mexico last week when he teed off in the final group.  Okay, so his final round of 72 left a little to be desired, but he played the back nine on Sunday at -2 so he should hopefully fly back to the States in confident mood.

And so he should, as JT appears to be the most obvious winner in this field, and with a return of 18-10 in his last pair of visits to Copperhead it’s a track that he certainly seems to enjoy.  He’s won three times since his last trip, so that augurs well!

He gained strokes on the field from tee-to-green (+1.293) and on approach (+1.053) in Mexico and has returned top-10 finishes in all four of our correlated events: the Sony Open (which he won of course), the John Deere Classic (fifth in 2015), the Wells Fargo (seventh in 2015), and the Honda Classic of 2016 (third), so Thomas really does tick all of our boxes this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 3rd
• SG: Tee to Green – 5th
• SG: Total – 5th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Gary Woodland (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 79.4, GPFP: 100.07 Salary: $8,900)

He’s getting closer, is Gary Woodland, to his first win since 2013.  He’s finished runner-up twice, in the OHL and Honda Classics, and has recorded six top-20 finishes in his last eight starts.  All he needs is a bit of luck and a thinner field – like this one – and he could get over the line.

Whether the improvements are psychological or technical, clearly working with Butch Harmon again is aiding his cause tremendously, and while his record at Innisbrook is a case of feast or famine (42-MC-8-MC-29) you would have to conclude that, with the form he’s in, a place in the upper reaches of the leaderboard is there for the taking.

Woodland has been excellent from tee to green of late, gaining more than two strokes on the field at PGA National plus +1.058 in Mexico, and while his game there was perhaps put off by the news that he is set to become a father to twins, now he has had time to digest that bombshell he can focus all his attention on his golf this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Total – 13th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 18th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Graeme DeLaet (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 72.1, GPFP: 87.24 Salary: $8,400)

We’ve been in the Canadian’s corner a few times already this season and been treated to some fantastic golf, so we’ve no real reason to jettison him ahead of a week in which he boasts current form and course history in abundance.

There’s no two ways about it: if DeLaet’s putter hadn’t gone cold on Sunday he would have won this event 12 months ago, and yet even so that extended a fine streak at Innisbrook to 5-8-17-MC.  If he has exorcised those demons, then there is no reason why a repeat performance cannot be achieved.

There’s form here…and lots of it!  DeLaet has recorded a trio of consecutive top-20 finishes – how many players on Tour can say that right now? – with T9 at the Phoenix Open, T17 at Genesis, and most eye-catchingly of all 10th at the Honda Classic, where he was very much in the mix for honors.

Key Stats:

• SG: Total – 31st
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 43rd
• Greens in Regulation – 49th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

Daniel Summerhays (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 61.8, GPFP: 49.47 Salary: $7,200)

As budget options go, Daniel Summerhays seems to be a safe pair of hands having gone four-of-four at Copperhead (22-10-70-63) and making the weekend in six of his last eight starts anywhere.

The pick of the bunch was T16 at the Phoenix Open – a repeat of that would be much appreciated this week, and even when he missed the cut the 34-year-old doesn’t tend to disgrace himself; Evens, Evens, and +3 his marks so far this term when failing to make the weekend.

Summerhays has returned top-20s in each of our correlated events (T8 in the John Deere Classic 2015, T13 at the Sony Open in ’15, and T14 at the Wells Fargo in 2016) so he seems to be a logical gamble this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 38th
• Going for the Green – 53rd
• SG: Total – 90th

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Chez Reavie (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 57.8, GPFP: 46.24 Salary: $7,000)

Here’s a guy who is capable of the odd moment of magic out on the golf course, and on tight stretches like Copperhead his ability to fashion birdie chances gives him a clear edge.

It certainly worked here in 2016, where he carded rounds of 69 and 68 – believe us, those are excellent numbers around this stretch – on his way to T22.  He has another top-20 return here to his name in 2012, so clearly there is something about Copperhead that Reavie enjoys.

His season has been up and down: T4, T8, and T12 at the OHL, Sony Open, and CareerBuilder followed by three consecutive missed cuts, but a couple weeks away from competitive golf will surely have helped him to work on his game ‘behind closed doors.’

When he’s firing on all cylinders, Reavie is a joy to behold.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 8th
• SG: Total – 35th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 59th

Sleeper Pick for The Valspar Championship

Jason Dufner (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 70.9, GPFP: 67.36 Salary: $7,900)

He’s becoming something of a forgotten man on the PGA TOUR in the wake of all these hot young talents coming through, and that’s a shame as the Duf-Man still has plenty to offer.

Jason made five starts this season and not only did he make the cut in four but also finished top-25 in each of those.  His final scores of -4 in both the Honda Classic and the WGC-Mexico in his last pair of starts might not sound that exciting, but in tough tests of ball striking like Copperhead they show he is prepared to graft out birdie opportunities as they come along.

Dufner is five for five at Innisbrook (22-24-14-21-10), and for a guy who seems to enjoy plenty of time away from the course the fact that he keeps coming back here year-after-year suggests this is a track that suits his eye.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling: 30th
• SG: Total: 59th
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 65th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Mexico Championship

Adam Hadwin (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 81.2, GPFP: 91.76 Salary: $6,800)

The Canadian should go nicely under the radar this week given that his two visits to Innisbrook have yielded a missed cut and a T71 finish, but as ever there is always a story within the story.

An opening round of 79 in his last visit here did damage to his hopes, but a Friday 69 showed that he has got the eye for this course; only eight players in the field shot a better second 18 mark.  Given his relative ‘coming of age’ this season, we can expect him to build upon that.

Hadwin has made 7/8 competitive cuts this term, with four of those returning top-25 finishes.  The pick of the bunch were top-10s at the OHL Classic and the CareerBuilder Challenge, where he finished an agonizing runner-up to Hudson Swafford despite carding a third round of 59.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 59th
• SG: Total – 34th
• Scoring Average – 29th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup #1

Sample Lineup #2

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.61%” bar_text=”8 out of 105 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.95%” bar_text=”22 out of 105 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”38.09%” bar_text=”40 out of 105 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”20.00%” bar_text=”3 out of 15 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”6.67%” bar_text=”1 out of 15 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”70.48″ bar_text=”74 out of 105 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 Valspar Championship with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram