Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Arnold Palmer Invitational

 

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview

Well there we go: a highly entertaining Sunday shootout yielded our fourth winner of the year as our sleeper pick, Adam Hadwin, held off the plucky Patrick Cantlay to claim the Valspar Championship by a single stroke.

It wasn’t easy sailing by any means as the Canadian failed to really build on his overnight four shot lead and Cantlay, who has missed the best part of four seasons through injury and is currently on a medical exemption, got stuck into some low scoring, particularly on the back nine.

But Hadwin dug in and, despite double-bogeying the sixteenth, somehow clung on to his maiden PGA TOUR title.

The Florida Swing continues at pace this week and bows out in fine style at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the first edition of the event since the sad passing of the King last year.  A strong tournament this week will be a fitting epitaph to AP, and while some of the world’s finest players are notable for their absence – as well documented by those incredulous at a seeming lack of respect to one of golf’s most legendary pioneers – an excellent field has gathered nonetheless.

Jason Day will make his long-awaited return following a string of injury problems and illnesses, and no doubt the Australian will be desperate to put in a good performance here.  He will be tested to the very extreme by the likes of Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, and Hideki Matusyama at the top table, as well as a impressive supporting cast; Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker, and Bubba Watson the standout names in among an exciting band of European and Asian stars.

Happily, Arnold has got the best seat in the house for this week’s contest; let’s hope those in attendance do him proud.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Valspar Championship

Despite losing our Top Tier pick Justin Thomas to the cut, our two sleeper picks certainly picked up the slack last week.  We ran with Jason Dufner, who finished T11 with 83 fantasy points at a price of $7,900 and Adam Hadwin who despite a low price tag ($6,800) sealed the deal for us with a win and a commanding 118 fantasy points!

Here is a look at one of the sample rosters we highlighted  from last week which contained six players all of which made the cut, including the winner.

On the European Tour, three of our six picks finished in the Top 10 including our Top Tier pick Anirban Lahiri, who finished T2 and Adilson Da Silva who ended up with a T4.

This week, be sure to utilize our Key Fantasy Stats tool which allows you to sort key fantasy performance categories within the field.  Here is an example of how it works:  Let’s say you’re looking to finalize your roster with some remaining salary money and you’re seeking a player between $6,000 and $6,500 and at least 72-75% in GIR percentage.  With a couple of easy inputs, you can sort and narrow to help make the best educated roster selections.

This and all of our statistical tools included in our Premium Membership so grab yours today!

The 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational Field

Day, McIlroy, Stenson, Matsuyama, Fowler: there’s five names that inspire plenty of excitement in this week’s tournament.  All are prolific winners who could quite easily walk away from him Bay Hill Club with the trophy.

Then there are an eager band of Europeans who will probably know that, last year, seven of the first eleven players home were graduates or currently on the European Tour.  Why that is is anybody’s guess – Bay Hill doesn’t have an overly European feel to it – but nevertheless the likes of Thomas Pieters, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrell Hatton, and Francesco Molinari will be looking for a huge victory here.

Then you have the stalwarts (Brandt Snedeker, Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore), the young guns (Tony Finau, Adam Hadwin, Wes Bryan) and, categorised quite harshly, the underachievers – certainly in recent times anyway: Bubba Watson, Graeme McDowell, and Paul Casey fit that billing.

This is a fantastically eclectic field, and we can’t wait to see who comes out on top.

This Week’s Course Preview

Bay Hill was Arnold Palmer’s baby from the moment he made this his winter home in the 19702 after declaring it ‘the best course in Florida.’  After getting the keys he made numerous tweaks seemingly on a yearly basis, and even today the track has a particularly ‘Palmer-esque’ feel to it.

But a few modifications were made in 2014 when Chris Flynn was brought in to give the course a bit of TLC, and after widening fairways and cutting back trees it is no surprise that the average winning score has leapt from -13 to -19 (Matt Every in 2015) and -17 (Day 12 months ago).

That said, this is by no means a bomber’s track as the tee-to-green merchants seem to still hold sway according to the stats, and at 7,419 for its Par 72 Bay Hill isn’t overly long.

This is Florida so the greens are of the Bermudagrass variety (TifEagle specifically) and run at approximately 12 on the stimpmeter.

Weather Forecast for Bay Hill, Florida

We’ve got the players and by the looks of it we will have the weather to perfectly honor the passing of the King.

Glorious sunshine is expected throughout the weekend with temperatures ranging from 65 to 78 degrees, with the chance of precipitation set at just 10%.

Yes it will be breezy – this is Florida golf folks – with the wind factor getting stronger throughout the day, but all in all the players could not really ask for better conditions than these.

Last Year’s Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational

It seems odd to think about but Jason Day actually didn’t play particularly well here 12 months ago – certainly not on the Sunday anyway – but as all great champions do he kept his emotions in check to claim a much-needed victory.  The win lifted him back up to second in the world, and was the precursor to his WGC Match Play victory just seven days later.

The Aussie held a commanding lead heading into the final 18 but a front nine horror show left him two strokes adrift of Kevin Chappell.  The pair fought tooth-and-nail down the back nine – Chappell a group in front – before the American bogeyed the last.

Day, needing a par four to win, hit his second shot into a bunker and a playoff looked certain.  But a moment of magic – his hack from the sandtrap traveled nearly 100 yards to the flag – left a four-foot tap in and a new name on the API trophy.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this Week

There’s no European Tour event this week, and so DraftKings is perhaps anticipating a greater spend on their PGA TOUR contests.

So they pushed the boat out suitably with an eclectic selection; the highlights of which are some huge guaranteed prizes and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to meet one of the game’s all-time greats.  Here are a few of our favorites this week:

• PGA $600K Signature Hole: DraftKings have dusted off their ‘Signature Hole’ branding and that’s great news for DFS gamers: there’s more than half-a-million dollars available in prizes, including a $100k top prize, for a paltry $4 buy in.

• Tiger Woods VIP Trip: He gets a hard time these days, does old Eldrick, but let’s not forget how he changed the face of modern golf.  You can tell him to his face if you win this contest, which offers accommodation, air travel, a couple of rounds of golf and a meet-and-greet with the great man himself in Nevada, Las Vegas!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

As with much of the Florida Swing, the aim of the game doesn’t change too much when contemplating a draft.  This is all about the action from tee-to-green, with Jason Day delivering a stonking +2.33 stroke gain on the field T2G last year.

Putting is pretty important at Bay Hill – these greens have been said to be pretty tricky to read – and so it is no surprise to learn that four of the first twelve home 12 months ago gained at least one stroke on the field with their short stick.

With tee-to-green play requiring good approach work that is another factor to consider (Day gained +1.05 strokes around the green), with Day hitting around two-thirds of fairways and greens, so good iron and wedge play is essential.

And this being a Par 72, playing the Par 5s well – Day went round them in -10 of his -17 – is imperative.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 113.3, GPFP: 90.60 Salary: $12,000)

There was an obvious temptation to pick Henrik Stenson this week given that this is almost his local course (he resides in Orlando), but his indifferent form on the weekend – he played his final 54 holes in -1 – has been enough to put us off.

In his place, the natural pick is McIlroy.  The Irishman finished T7 in Mexico upon his return from injury, and that performance was more than encouraging given his lengthy layoff.  Much of the old magic was on show.

A return from Bay Hill of 27-11 doesn’t look that impressive, but he played exceptionally well in 2015 to finish T11 and last year he fired excellent rounds of 67 on Friday (only bettered by four players) and 65 on the Sunday – which was the finest last 18 played – to complete his T27 finish.

If he can combine three or even four rounds of that nature, he could run away with this tournament this week.

Key Stats (2016):

• SG: Tee to Green – 2nd
• SG: Total – 4th
• GIR Percentage – 11th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Francesco Molinari (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 68.6, GPFP: 54.80 Salary: $8,600)

Regular readers of this column will know that we are long-time fans of Molinari, and this week he looks well primed to go well.  Just look at the Italian’s formline this season: 20-14-MC-14-12-6-4-6…does it get any more consistent than that?

Take that form and add in some sumptuous course history (9-17-5-34) and you have a recipe for…well, success, right?

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 4th
• SG: Total – 17th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 21st

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Charl Schwartzel (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 60.6, GPFP: 48.48 Salary: $7,400)

Former Masters champion Charl Schwartzel is rounding up to some nice form at the moment, and that bodes well a couple of weeks from Augusta.

For now, he will want to maintain that fine run with a decent showing at Bay Hill; a track he hasn’t confronted since 2011.  Not to worry – there are no real demons here, particularly compared to Copperhead where as defending champion he finished a respectable T6 at the weekend.

The South African offers up an excellent short game (+1.327 SG:APP and +1.633 T2G at the Valspar), and as we have mentioned backing European Tour graduates this week is no problem at all.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 8th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better – 43rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

Graeme McDowell (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 72.6, GPFP: 58.08 Salary: $7,000)

It was refreshing for anybody that saw Graeme McDowell’s interviews after his final round on Sunday to see him so full of confidence and talking highly of his game; this is a guy who should really contend more.

Excellent from tee to green – as we would expect from somebody raised on Links golf – McDowell has endured a real lean patch in recent years which he attributes to a lack of focus on the course and an expanding family off it.

But he appears to have his mojo back, and if we can ignore a few missed cuts at Bay Hill we can find a T10 in 2014 and a T2 in 2012 in among the rubbish.  Coming here with a formline of 28-13-67-14-14 suggests another strong showing is in his near future.

He is the tournament host this week alongside Anneka Sorenstam and others, and perhaps that will provide the catalyst for a winning week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 20th
• SG: Putting – 51st
• SG: Total – 54th

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Chad Campbell (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 50.8, GPFP: 40.63 Salary: $6,700)

We’re going for a rock-steady final pick this week in the shape of Chad Campbell, who incredibly has made ten cuts in eleven starts at Bay Hill; missing the tournament just once in a decade!

That’s a nice enough angle on its own, but then we can factor in a nice turn at Valspar last week, where he finished T11 and gained +2.42 strokes on the field on approach.

If you’re looking for a budget play to round off your salary cap this week, Campbell is your man.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 38th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 45th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 62nd

Sleeper Pick for The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Brooks Koepka (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 47.3, GPFP: 90.60 Salary: $6,900)

There are quite a few guys flying under the radar this week, and our first sleeper is a guy who, quite, frankly, should be insulted to be priced at just $200 more than John Daly (hope you’re well, John!).

Koepka has long been talked of as a potential major winner, and so to see his price tumble as a result of a loss of form (48-MC-MC-42) is surprising.  That doesn’t concern us though: here is an awesome talent who has a T26 to his name at Bay Hill.

Brooks decided not to play at Valspar last time out, and that was probably wise as it has given him chance to work on his game ‘behind closed doors’.  We’re expecting a more focused player on course this week, and if his confidence has improved over the past week he should make a mockery of this price tag.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Scoring Average: 5th
• SG: Putting: 17th
• Birdie Average: 34th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Chris Kirk (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 55.8, Salary: GPFP: 44.64 $6,800)

Another tee-to-green specialist who has been woefully underpriced this week, Kirk can go well at Bay Hill as two top-20s in his last four starts confirms.

A missed cut at Copperhead is perhaps the reason for his long price here, but he’s never played particularly well there.  But a season ratio of 40% top-25 finishes per start – and 30% top-10 per start – suggests the form is never far from returning for the Georgian native.

A this price, you’re getting a decent Bermuda grass putter who is efficient from tee to green; what more can you ask for?

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 11th
• SG: Putting – 20th
• SG: Total – 55th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup #1

Sample Lineup #2

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.00%” bar_text=”9 out of 112 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.50%” bar_text=”23 out of 112 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”38.40%” bar_text=”43 out of 112 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”25.00%” bar_text=”4 out of 16 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”6.30%” bar_text=”1 out of 16 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”70.50″ bar_text=”79 out of 112 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram