Fantasy Golf Predictions – The 2013 AT&T National

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 AT&T National, June 26th – 29th, 2013

Preview: Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD., Will play host to the AT&T National for the fifth time in its seven-year history. The contest was previously held at Aronimink Golf Club back in 2010 and 2011.  That was before the USGA took over Congressional for the 2011 U.S. Open (when Rory McIlroy dominated the field). When it returned last year, Congressional wasn’t same old easy track, but instead emerged as one of the toughest stops on TOUR. With Tiger out of the mix this week (elbow strain) all eyes will be on Mahan, Day, and Scott.

Course: Congressional Country Club (Blue) measures 7,569 yards and plays as a par 71. The club was founded in 1924 and immediately established itself as a gathering place for leaders of industry and government. Founding members included two former U.S. presidents, Warren Harding and successor Calvin Coolidge. The club also hosted six Kemper Opens, and officially joined the PGA TOUR’s regular schedule when the AT&T National was added in 2008. In 2012 this track played the toughest its ever played, with a 56.94% percentage of fairways hit.

Weather in Bethesda, MD (from weather.com):

• Thursday (June 26): 87 degrees, scattered T-Storms, 0% chance of rain.
• Friday (June 27): 85 degrees, scattered T-Storms, 10% chance of rain.
• Saturday (June 28): 86 degrees, scattered T-Storms, 20% chance of rain.
• Sunday (June 29): 80 degrees, isolated t-storms, 30% chance of rain.

2012 Results: Tiger Woods rocked the house at Congressional in 2012 beating Bo Van Pelt down the stretch to seize his third win of the year, marking his 74th career victory and passing Jack Nicklaus for No.2 on the all-time list. Woods closed with a 2-under-par 69, pulling ahead when Van Pelt bogeyed his final three holes, derailing what seemed to be an easy coast towards victory. It wasn’t all roses for Woods who hit a spectator with his drive and then put his approach over the green at No.16. Van Pelt had a golden opportunity to pick up some strokes but came up short with a 6 (we’re sure Tiger was able to focus nicely without thousands of eyes following him).

Notes: With Woods sitting this one out the spotlight will fall on recent winners Rose and Scott as well as Jason Day and Hunter Mahan, all of whom have been red hot in recent weeks. Rose will be making his second start in as many weeks since his U.S. Open victory. Jason Day, whose tie for second behind Rose was his fourth top-3 finish in the past 10 majors, will make his first start since Merion. The 2010 HP Byron Nelson Championship remains as his only PGA TOUR win but with a close 3rd place finish at the WGC Match Play earlier this year, Day has certainly been knocking on the door.

Keep an eye on Billy Horschel as he continues to creep up leader boards on a weekly basis. And lastly…could this be the week that Brandt Snedeker rights the ship and tries to defend his FedExCup crown?  Hard to say, but we’re not ready to rule him out just yet.

Top 5 Picks to Win the 2013 AT& National:

• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds 7/1): Hunter has been knocking on the door all year and we’re just waiting for his turn to hoist a trophy. Mahan placed T4 at Merion and has carded 11 top 25s this season. Foremost in our minds is his great record at Congressional: T8 (2007), T12 (2008), 2nd (2009), T8 (2012). He also held 36-hole lead here last year.  With that record and the way he’d been playing it’s tough to bet against Mahan this week.
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 11/1): The Aussie has a phenomenal game that’s tailor-fit for Congressional. After a solo second at the 2011 U.S. Open, Day posted a T8 at last year’s AT&T National, ranking second in greens hit for the week. Like Mahan, Day has been hot lately, most recently tying for second in his last start at Merion two weeks ago.
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 16/1): Scott is 3-for-3 in cuts made with two top 20s since winning the Masters. He finished in third place at Congressional last year and ranked inside top 15 in fairways and greens hit — a tough stat on this track.  Scott is also currently seventh in strokes gained-putting.
• Billy Horschel (Golficity Odds 22/1): We can all agree that it’s been fun watching this guy play all season. His most recent PGA TOUR-leading seven top 10s was a T4 at the U.S. Open. Billy ranks eighth in total driving, 25th in greens in regulation, 17th in strokes gained-putting, 10th in adjusted scoring and T4 in par-4 scoring. Look out for the Horsch!
• Scott Stallings (Golficity Odds 29/1): Stallings is easily one of the hottest players in the game over the past month with a pair of T4s and a T2 (FedEx St. Jude Classic). His game has remained steady during this hot streak, but he recently fell 46 spots in strokes gained-putting, dropping to 52nd overall. This may hurt his odds with us this week, but we still like him as one of our 5 to be hoisting the trophy on Sunday.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Graeme DeLaet (Golficity Odds 50/1): DeLaet played excellently last week at the Travelers were he matched his PGA TOUR career-best with a solo third. He also ranked T13 in fairways hit, led the field in GIR and ranked T2 in both proximity and par-4 scoring. A lot of people are over looking the fact that he’s got four straight top 25s and 11 on the season, but look out because Graeme is the definition of a sleeper pick right now.
• Ryan Palmer(Golficity Odds 50/1): Palmer missed the cut at Merion, but not to worry, prior to that he went 7-for-7 with four top 15s, two of which went for top fives. He shared 15th place at last year’s AT&T National, ranking inside the top 10 in distance, proximity, scrambling and par-4 scoring. These stats are key on this track and we like him as a sleeper this week as well.

Last Week’s Results: The 2013 Travelers Championship

• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds 10/1): T24
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 18/1): T13
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 22/1): T13
• Lee Westwood (Golficity Odds 28/1): 74
• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 35/1) T7

Sleeper Picks to Win

• Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds 55/1): T30
• Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 75/1): MC

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