Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The Northern Trust

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for The Northern Trust

The Northern Trust 2017 Fantasy Sleeper Preview

If there’s ever a good time to play your way into form, it’s a week or two prior to the riches on offer courtesy of the FedExCup.

Okay, so the majors may have gone for the year, but there are still plenty of ways to line your pocket and add to the trophy cabinet, so Henrik Stenson must be feeling pretty good about life right about now.

The former British Open winner was excellent at the PGA Championship despite ‘only’ finishing T13, and he continued that fine form in last week’s Wyndham Championship; firing a Sedgefield course record on his way to a one-shot victory over the plucky Ollie Schneiderjans.

The FedExCup is seen on the first tee during the third round of the…

The FedExCup is seen on the first tee during the third round of the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club on September 24, 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Stenson will be feeling pretty good about his game heading to New York for the first of the FedExCup playoff evets, the Northern Trust, this week. It’s a brand new course for Stenson and co. to tackle – Glen Oaks in Old Westbury – and while we have some ideas of how it will play (it has been routinely compared to Augusta National and Bethpage Black), it is still something of a leap into the unknown for sportsbook bettors this week.

It’s a 7,300 yard Par 70 that has enjoyed a complete overhaul under the guidance of course superintendent Craig Currier (formerly of Bethpage Black) and led by architect Joel Weiman, and today it is said to more than resemble Augusta with wide fairways, deep bunkers and super slick greens.

The weather is set fair in New York City this week, so soft conditions will be a thing of the past. These greens are going to play really, really fast, and approach play will be difficult with the landing areas protected by run-off areas where the grass is cut incredibly short. Scott Brown, who played the course 12 months ago, insinuated that scoring would be difficult if the weather was warm, and we have no reason to question his judgement.

For the uninitiated, the FedExCup brings together the top 125 players from the relevant standings to battle it out for the honor of being crowned FedExCup champion (naturally). Only the top 100 will make it through to the Deutsche Bank Championship next week, so there is plenty for all players at both ends of the field to play for.

The winners of the last eight FedExCup events have been Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy (x2), Dustin Johnson, Jason Day (x2), Rickie Fowler, and Jordan Spieth, so we are very much expecting the cream to rise to the top this week.

But there are some excellent players available at odds 50/1 or greater, so who are the sleepers most likely to do some damage in NYC? Let’s have a look.

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The Northern Trust Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Northern Trust Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Justin Rose – Vegas Odds 55/1 – There is one reason and one reason only to bet on Justin Rose this week: form is temporary, class is permanent.

It is slightly offensive of the sportsbooks to have Rose at such a lofty price as this – we’re talking about the Olympic champion here, and the man who could have won The Masters earlier this year but for the outrageous performance under pressure of Sergio Garcia.

His form since Augusta has been awful, and that comes amid rumors that he is working on swing changes behind closed doors in an attempt to alleviate a debilitating back injury.

Swing changes can be wholly unsuccessful or make a crucial difference – it all depends on the individual – but what we can say is this: there is not a classier player at the 50/1+ mark than the Englishman this week.

Daniel Berger – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Of all the things that have shocked us this season, Dan Berger missing the cut at the PGA Championship was right up there.

Since winning the St Jude Classic in June, Berger had made four out of five cuts (just missing that of the US Open), recorded three top-20s and two top-5s. So there was absolutely no reason for him to flop at Quail Hollow.

The 24-year-old had last week off, a smart move, and will hopefully head to New York revitalised and confident after some range hitting in the past few weeks. He has a top-10 to his name at Augusta (2016), and that might just be an omen for a good week at Glen Oaks.

Tony Finau – Vegas Odds 80/1 – Big Tony is one of the most improved players on the PGA TOUR, adding a touch of quality to his short game to go with the booming drives.

Finau won the Puerto Rico Open in 2016, but it’s about time he lifted a ‘proper’ PGA TOUR trophy and an event like this, where he can go to town with the driver without worrying about penal rough, is surely his best bet.

He’s played well at Bethpage before (T12 at the 2016 Barclays), and in his last ten starts has delivered five top-20s – three of which were converted into top-10s.

Charl Schwartzel – Vegas Odds 110/1 – We’ve spoken about the need for a touch of class this week – that’s certainly been the blueprint for the more recent FedExCup playoff winners, and as a former Masters champion Schwartzel ticks two boxes this week.

The South African’s form has been rather laboured since finishing second at the St Jude Classic, but there were enough positive signs in his T24 at the WGC Bridgestone to suggest a renaissance is just around the corner.

Besides, how often do you get to back a major champion and a 14-time winner worldwide at a price of three figures?

Jamie Lovemark – Vegas Odds 125/1 – When you look at the list of winners on the PGA TOUR this season, a whole bunch of young players have come of age and grabbed a ‘W’. It’s high time Lovemark did likewise.

He ranks 31st for SG: tee to Green and 17th for SG: Around-the-Green – the profile of a class act – and yet he still hasn’t won an event. It will come as no surprise to note that he’s not the best in the world with the putter.

But there’s plenty of upsides to someone who has made 20/25 cuts this form and transferred nine of those to top-25s and four to top-10s.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The Northern Trust here.

Cover photo via Instagram