Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2017 CIMB Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 CIMB Classic

2017 CIMB Classic Fantasy Preview

Anybody tuning in to the Safeway Open last week could have been forgiven for thinking they were an extra on the set of Groundhog Day.

The narrative in Napa was almost exactly the same as that which panned out 12 months prior: a couple of young bucks from the Web.com Tour set the pace (Tyler Duncan, Chesson Hadley), before a bunch of PGA TOUR maidens (Graeme DeLaet, Bud Cauley) and potential future stars of the game (Tony Finau, Grayson Murray) took the initiative.

But it was the class act that stole the show in 2016, Brendan Steele, who did the business once again in Silverado to claim back-to-back title wins there and set himself up for a shot at immortality and the ‘three-peat’ in 2018.

Another player seeking their own slice of three-peat history is Justin Thomas, who has claimed consecutive victories at this week’s event: the CIMB Classic, which is the first leg of the Tour’s Asian swing.

It was in Kuala Lumpur that JT’s incredible 2017 began, and so he will have plenty of happy memories to take to Asia on the back of his PGA Championship and FedExCup glories.

The CIMB Classic is the first of three events on the other side of the world, with the brand-new CJ Cup taking place in Korea next week and the WGC HSBC Champions the following week in Shanghai.

There’s a generous amount of prize money sloshing about in this trio of tournaments, as well as a full quota of FedExCup points, so there will be no let-up as more players shake off the post-season dust and prepare for a potentially profitable couple of weeks.

Justin Thomas of the United States celebrates with the trophy on the…

Justin Thomas of the United States celebrates with the trophy on the 18th green after winning the FedExCup and second in the TOUR Championship during the final round at East Lake Golf Club on… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Safeway Open

Last week’s Top Tier pick Tony Finau finished T2 along with our mid-tier choice pick Bud Cauley who grabbed a T7. Together the two combo’d for some solid low-priced fantasy points.

Steele, a regular fantasy favorite, hasn’t showed much life in the last few months. It was tough to hang our hat on him but if you had Steele with Finau and Cauley, we’re pretty sure you made it rain last weekend.

Tony Finau plays his shot from the 15th tee during the final round of…

Tony Finau plays his shot from the 15th tee during the final round of the Safeway Open at the North Course of the Silverado Resort and Spa on October 8, 2017 in Napa, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

2017 CIMB Classic Field

It’s only natural that Thomas is the headline act in Kuala Lumpur this week, but he is certainly run close by the number one Asian player on the planet, Hideki Matsuyama, who has finished in the top five on each of his last two trips to this venue.

The pair will be joined in Malaysia by the likes of Steele, Paul Casey, Charl Schwartzel, and Rafa Cabrera-Bello, while Xander Schauffele will make his first start since claiming an incredible victory at the TOUR Championship. Will he have gotten the hangover from that outstanding feat out of his system yet?

There’s a strong Asian contingent in the 78-man field as well, with Matsuyama and Si-Woo Kim joined by the impressive Hai-Tong Li, the mercurial Phachara Khongwatmai and the prolific SSP Chawrasia, among others.

Hideki Matsuyma of Japan and the International team plays his second…

Hideki Matsuyma of Japan and the International team plays his second shot on the 14th hole during the final day singles matches matches in the 2017 Presidents Cup at the Liberty National Golf Club on… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

TPC Kuala Lumpur has hosted the CIMB Classic since 2013, and in the past couple of years it has been a breeze for the players to tame, with Justin Thomas’ winning scores being -26 and -23.

That is perhaps as a consequence of the weather, which is notoriously stormy in Malaysia at this time of year. While the fairways are reasonably tight, these are made easier by the usually soft conditions which are derived from the thunderstorms that blight the area in October.

Designed by Nelson & Haworth and opened in 1991, the West Course was reworked by Geoff and Ted Parslow in 2008. It is a fairly usual test that you might see on the Asian Tour, although the US players seem to enjoy it nonetheless with seven of the first ten players home in 2015 coming from America.

Fairways are regulation-size but the greens are slightly larger than average, and these run pretty sluggishly due to the amount of rain around. They are receptive, naturally, but Proximity to the hole is of paramount importance on the generously-sized surfaces.

The fairways and rough are made up of Seashore Paspalum, with the greens of Seaisle Supreme disposition. This provides a unique test for the players, and is perhaps one reason why there are a number of repeat performers at TPC Kuala Lumpur – especially Justin Thomas!

Derek Fathauer of the United States plays a shot on the 14th hole…

Derek Fathauer of the United States plays a shot on the 14th hole during day one of the 2016 CIMB Classic atthe TPC, Kuala Lumpur on October 20, 2016 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Few tournaments on the PGA TOUR are as affected by the weather as the CIMB Classic, and the 2017 edition looks set to be no exception.

Storms are expected on Monday and Tuesday, and while the lightning part of the weather graphic is absent from Thursday-Sunday, there is still lots and lots of rain expected.

What typically happens is that the days dawn okay, but as the humidity increases so too does the likelihood of rain: hence why heavy rain is forecast for the afternoons on Thursday and Friday and on Sunday as well.

Wind speeds are reassuringly low, so that won’t affect matters, but the hot temperatures of around 92 degrees will certainly test the physical credentials of the players.

Last Year’s Results from the CIMB Classic

Justin Thomas bookended his win at the CIMB Classic last year with rounds of 64, which were only bettered during the four days by the -9 efforts from Russell Knox and Scott Hend.

But a slightly lapse Friday-Saturday stint meant that JT had a four-shot deficit to make up heading into Sunday, but golf is a sport of momentum and Thomas birdied four of the first five holes – in stark contrast to 54-hole leader Anirbhan Lahiri’s quadruple bogey at the third hole.

He added further birdies on the back nine to romp home by three from Hideki Matsuyama, who overtook Lahiri by birdieing 17 and 18.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the CIMB Classic this Week

It is not the most jam-packed of slates this week from any of the DFS platforms, and in truth that will be the case for the entirety of the Asian swing. But that also means lower turnouts, and in guaranteed prize pool contests that means your chances of winning big are increased.

So here’s the pick of the bunch this week:

• PGA $50k Fore: DraftKings’ meat-and-potatoes play for low-budget gamers is this $50k Fore contest. It’s $4 entry with the winner bagging a still handy $3,000, and the top 25% of finishers will all double their money.
• PGA $5k Albatross: With the small field size this week, playing in a single-entry contest is key to stopping the big boys and their hefty bankrolls from hoovering up all the big prizes. For $12, you will go head-to-head against 489 other players with a top prize of $500 on the table.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the CIMB Classic

Make birdies – tons of them. There’s no secret to success at TPC Kuala Lumpur, and unfortunately due to the soft and wet conditions it is likely to be one of those ‘point and shoot’ approach shootouts that often unfold in such scenarios.

So it really will all be about the approach play this week. Playing out of the rough will be no fun, so accuracy off the tee is a good idea, but really it’s going to be all about that second shot on the Par 4s and 5s and landing as close to the pin as possible.

So, who typically does well in these conditions? You would argue that the in-form players have more of an advantage than ever, as their irons will be locked in tight. A quick perusal of Strokes Gained: Approach stats from the Safeway Open and the last few FedExCup events will also outline how confident the players are in their medium to long game.

Looking at the 2016 stats, Thomas ranked T13 for Driving Accuracy (no Distance figures were collected) but actually that is slightly misleading as he found 73% of fairways – a high percentage by anyone’s measure of success.

JT also ranked T13 for Greens in Regulation, and fourth for Putting Average – interestingly, three of the top-10 finishers ranked inside the top five for this stat. But with the greens likely to play sluggish and slow this week, we can predict less of a putting contest than 12 months ago.

It may be coincidental, it may not, but form shown at the Safeway Open has just occasionally been a trigger for a decent showing at the CIMB Classic too. Last year Justin Thomas (T8 at Silverado), Derek Fathauer (T15)m and Keegan Bradley (T22) had played well in the Safeway prior to finish first, T3, and sixth respectively in Malaysia, while in 2015 strong showings from Kevin Na (T2), Thomas again (T4), Hideki Matsuyama (T17)m and Brendan Steele (T17) at Silverado were followed a week later by T3, first, fifth, and T3 respectively in Kuala Lumpur.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the CIMB Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the CIMB Classic

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Justin Thomas (Odds: 5/1, FPPG: 69.2, GPFP: 94.88, Salary: $12,300)

Okay, so Thomas is the obvious play here, but when you see a guy who so clearly enjoys playing at a particular stretch – especially a player who can lay claim to being one of the best on the planet right now – it’s hard not to get involved.

Seven of his last eight rounds at TPC Kuala Lumpur have been in the 60s, with five of that seven being 67 or better, and really there is little else better to recommend JT than that.

He’s actually a better player now than he was 12 months ago; there’s more wins to his name – which proves he is a closer – and of course a major trophy in the cabinet.

Realistically, the only thing that can stop Thomas winning this week is a super-human effort from one of his main rivals, or the man himself has taken his eye off the ball. But successfully undertaking a three-peat would be another slice of history for the 24-year-old, and don’t forget he was beaten by Matsuyama in the singles at the Presidents Cup. That could well prove to be motivation enough.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 2nd
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 6th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Ian Poulter (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 70.3, GPFP: 54.59, Salary: $8,900)

If ever there was a tournament set up perfectly for Ian Poulter, it is likely to be the CIMB Classic this week.

His aggressive, attack the pin style will be rewarded by softer conditions and should present plenty of scoring opportunities. The wet weather won’t faze him – he is English, after all – and an apprenticeship served on the European Tour means he is familiar with golf in the southern hemisphere.

The 41-year-old has been in decent form of late with back-to-back top-25s in majors (T14 at the British Open, T22 at the PGA Championship), a solo third at the Canadian Open and 5/8 rounds in the 60s at the Dell Technologies and BMW Championships.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 11th
• Approaches from 150-175 Yards – 12th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 22nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Brendan Steele (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 71.0, GPFP: 65.43, Salary: $8,300)

One of our golden rules, typically, is to never draft a player who won a tournament the week before – that’s for fear of them suffering the dreaded ‘champion’s hangover.’

But there are so many ticks in Steele’s box this week that we simply must get involved; not least the fact that he has been criminally under-priced by DraftKings, to mention just one.

But his tee-to-green game was outstanding at Silverado – nobody gained more strokes than Steele in this area – and clearly that stands him in good stead for what is likely to be an iron and wedge-based shootout.

We particularly like the fact that seven out of his last eight rounds here have been in the 60s and 4/7 were 67 or lower – an almost identical return to Justin Thomas.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 23rd
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 31st
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 37th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Graeme DeLaet (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 70.4, GPFP: 58.38, Salary: $7,500)

There are plenty of players at this lower-mid tier price point that appeal, and for those who enjoy a flutter the $7,600 Kyle Stanley looks an outstanding price of 70/1.

But we’ve opted for Graeme DeLaet courtesy of the ‘plays well at the Safeway Open, will play well at the CIMB’ narrative.

The Canadian ranked first for SG: Approach and fourth for SG: Tee-to-Green at Silverado, and that suggests he is flushing his irons and wedges right now. At a wet TPC Kuala Lumpur, that bodes very nicely.

The other advantage to DeLaet is that his course form (T7 in 2013) just shades that of Stanley (33-19).

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 3rd
• Greens in Regulation – 22nd
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 29th

Low-Tier Pick:

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 70.7, GPFP: 71.49, Salary: $7,000)

Is there a more baffling player on the PGA TOUR than Keegan Bradley? Sublime off the tee, he is brilliant with irons in hand and is a GIR machine.

Unfortunately, his putting is akin to that of an amateur hacker, and at the Safeway Open he missed more short putts than flagons of wine were sold in Napa Valley during the course of the weekend.

He missed the cut at Silverado but still, somehow, managed to rank top-10 for strokes gained from tee to green and on approach, which is testament to how well Bradley is striking the ball with all of his instruments – bar the putter, of course.

Hopefully the slower conditions at a stomping ground that he has enjoyed in the past (6-47-10) will give Bradley the confidence to kick on this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 7th
• Greens in Regulation – 20th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th

Sleeper Pick for the CIMB Classic

Haotong Li (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 71.9, GPFP: 51.05, Salary: $7,300)

At this point of the season, you will often read a lot of different reports covering the players that pundits expect to make a big splash in 2018.

From the European Tour, much of the coverage will focus on the precociously-talented Chinaman, who at the tender age of 22 has already secured his first title and finished in the top-five of a major (third at this year’s British Open).

Haotong is a three-time winner on the PGA China Tour, playing in conditions not all too dissimilar to those in Malaysia this week, and if you are looking for a bit of magic from a sleeper pick this week then note that his final round of 63 at the Open was one of the lowest in major history.

Key Stats (European Tour):

• Greens in Regulation – 66.88%
• Driving Accuracy – 61.79%
• Stroke Average – 70.88

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the CIMB Classic

Stewart Cink (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.6, GPFP: 63.62, Salary: $7,000)

If this does descend into a battle of the short irons then you could do a lot worse than have Stewart Cink on side.

The 44-year-old is a green-hitting machine, and with his putts starting to roll in again towards the latter stages of the season (T12 at Dell Technologies, T27 at the BMW Championship) it really is a recipe for success for the veteran.

Cink’s consistent play last season was rewarded with 20 cuts made from 26 starts and ten top-25 finishes – three of those coming during the wraparound season.

He’s not a slow starter then, and he should love the conditions in Malaysia.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach: 4th
• Greens in Regulation: 18th
• Birdie Average: 20th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

This Week’s Sample Lineup

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2016-2017)

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Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the CIMB Classic with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram