Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Arnold Palmer Invitational

2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

Phil Mickelson winning, Paul Casey winning, Tiger competing hard….golf fans could be forgiven for thinking they have entered some kind of Twilight Zone in the past few weeks, but part of the sport’s enduring appeal is that even the slightly older, more bedraggled dogs can have their day in place of the well-groomed, exuberant pups on the scene.

Indeed, with the likes of Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy hopelessly out of form at the moment, it might just be that a more senior figure slips into the green jacket at Augusta in three weeks’ time.

There’s plenty of business to take care of between now and then, and this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at the infamous Bay Hill club will continue the recent trend of a grind in tough conditions ahead of The Masters.

In this event 12 months ago, 13 of the holes at Bay Hill had a scoring average of over par; and of the five that didn’t four were the Par 5s. The layout, which was the play-thing of Arnold Palmer for the past four decades and one which he continuously tinkered with, is tough in design and made even harder by the Florida winds. There are fewer trees here than, say, Copperhead, and a lack of shelter means that the breeze whistles around a rate of a knots.

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays a shot on the 14th hole during…

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays a shot on the 14th hole during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 19, 2017 in… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

It’s perhaps no shock then that Europeans, Australians and Southern hemisphere based players have thrived here in recent years, as well as two-time, back-to-back winner Matt Every….although nobody other than the man himself can really offer an explanation of that peculiar trend.

Measuring 7,419 yards for its Par 72, Bay Hill features pristine Bermuda fairways and greens, with liberal bunkering and water hazards – in play on nine holes – adding to the complexity.

The key factors for players to consider this week are undoubtedly players who make an above average number of Greens in Regulation, who shoot low numbers on Par 5, who are comfortable in the wind and who don’t mind grinding out par on the myriad of more difficult holes.

With that in mind, who are the sleepers to watch this week?

Luke List – Vegas Odds 55/1 – Many punters and DFS gamers had noted the potential in Luke List; long off the tee and with a decent short game, he always looked a bit of class short with the flat stick to really make waves on Tour.

Consequently, most had him earmarked as a potential winner of events like the CareerBuilder Challenge or the Barbasol Championship; List would surely get the better of low quality fields here.

So it has come as something of a surprise that a few of his best ever performances on the PGA TOUR have come at its hardest courses of late: a solo second at the devilish PGA National – where he lost out in a play-off to Justin Thomas, has been followed by a respectable T16 at the Valspar Championship last week – played at the ‘club down’ Copperhead, which doesn’t suit his natural game.

He will be able to free his shoulders with the big stick at Bay Hill, and will be looking to get stuck into the Par 5s; he ranks 26th for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat – Vegas Odds 66/1 – The ‘Barn Rat’ has transformed himself into a rather consistent performer in the past year or so, and with a pair of victories under his loosely-fitted belt in the past couple of months alone he will be full of confidence here.

Okay, so those two triumphs – in the World Super 6 and on the Asian Development Tour last week – are evidence that he is happy bullying low quality fields, but he has also done the business against more elite opposition too: finishing T5 at the WGC-Mexico just two weeks ago.

There is a high premium on approach play at Bay Hill and Aphibarnrat is one of the European Tour’s best when it comes to GIR, and the wind won’t faze him given that he has won in Scotland and Australia.

Zach Johnson – Vegas Odds 66/1 – In seven PGA TOUR appearances this season Zach Johnson has finished inside the top-25 on six occasions, and you suspect that consistency will be rewarded soon enough with a run to the business end of a tournament.

A player who thrives in ‘windy grinds’, Johnson has won the British Open, the Texas Open (twice) and the Sony Open in the conditions he is likely to experience in Orlando this week, and with three top-10s and a T11 at Bay Hill to his name there’s no doubt that this is a layout that suits.

A feature of ZJ’s game this season has been his iron play – he ranks 17th on Tour for SG: Approach and 23rd for SG: Tee-to-Green – and so he is well set for a tilt at a 13th PGA TOUR title this week to follow in fellow ‘veterans’ Mickelson and Casey.

Emiliano Grillo – Vegas Odds 66/1 – With a head turning pair of results at Bay Hill (7-17) Grillo would have made the longlist anyway, and when you add some good – albeit slightly temperamental – form into the mix, the Argentine becomes a simple play this week.

After finishing T8 in the Honda Classic, Grillo took the decision to play the European Tour’s Indian Open this past week at the demonic DLF course in New Delhi; not even old Arnie himself would have presented a track as heinous as this.

But the Argentine romped along through 36 holes, and looked to have the title in the bag. He faltered quite badly over the weekend, and appeared to be rather frustrated when paired with the slow-playing Shubhankar Sharma on Saturday.

He held it together well on Sunday for another top-10 finish, and he heads back to Florida in high spirits.

Patton Kizzire – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Sometimes you back a player on price alone, and so we’re more than happy to get stuck into the 100/1 about a guy who has already won twice this season!

Kizzire plays neat and tidy golf, and that sees him rank sixth for Greens in Regulation and ninth for Scoring Average, and his two wins have come in the windy surrounds of the Sony Open and the OHL Classic.

His last act on the course was a round of 66 at the WGC-Mexico, which propelled him up the leaderboard to T12.