Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

2018 WGC-Dell Match Play Fantasy Preview

Just when you thought the anticipation for The Masters couldn’t get any more intense, another old favorite goes and follows Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and Paul Casey into the winner’s circle.

The Florida Swing had not proven too kind up until this point for Rory McIlroy, and the Irishman was set to join Jordan Spieth on hypothetical lists of ‘chalk picks to avoid’ at Augusta. It was not as if he was playing that badly, but the flat stick was misbehaving and that looked all but decisive in ruling out McIlroy from winning the year’s first major.

“I freed up with my putting this week. I didn’t worry too much about mechanics,” were his words on Sunday after clinching a fine win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which included a final salvo of 64 – by far the day’s best and a round which McIlroy himself described as ‘perfect’. As if to prove the ‘ball-striking for show, putting for dough’ sentiment, the Irishman ranked first for Strokes Gained: Putting at Bay Hill.

And so we move closer to our date with Augusta National with plenty to think about as the quest for the Green Jacket continues to take a number of interesting twists and turns.

Dustin Johnson walks off the second green during the final round of…

Dustin Johnson walks off the second green during the final round of World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club De Golf Chapultepec on March 4, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

There is plenty of business to take care of in the meantime, and this week we have the second World Golf Championships event of the year courtesy of the WGC-Dell Match Play tournament in Austin, Texas.

It’s a history-making event too, as this is the first time that DraftKings has offered contests relating to a match play contest, and as such it’s well worth getting up to speed with the points scoring system in this brave new world!

A hole won earns 3 points, a half takes +0.75 and a hole lost loses -0.75. Also note that holes not played, i.e. if a player wins before all 18 holes are played, earn +1.6 points for the winning player.

On top of that, there’s 5 points for a match won and 2 points for a half. There are streak bonuses too, with 5 additional points for three consecutive holes won and a bonus of 7.5 points if your player doesn’t lose a hole during the match.

All matches in the bracket phase count (including ‘dead rubbers’), and from the knockout phase forward any playoff holes also count towards scoring.

So that’s how the winners and losers will be separated this week in the inaugural DraftKings slate for the WGC-Dell Match Play.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Our Top Pick Justin Rose ended up with a solo 3rd place finish after carding a bogey-free round on Sunday despite falling short to the charging Rory by four strokes.

Many fantasy players were skeptical of Rory’s current form heading into the API but McIlory proved us all wrong with an amazing back nine performance on Sunday. His standout win comes just in time to start working him onto the short list for August in a few weeks.

Anyone brave enough to have had Rory and Bryson on their rosters last week most certainly cashed in very well at Bay Hill.

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland smiles at the tournament trophy…

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland smiles at the tournament trophy while wearing a replica Arnold Palmer red cardigan following his three stroke victory on the 18th hole green in the final round of the… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

If you elected to run with Rose this week, you certainly needed some help with our sleeper picks like Luke List (T7) and Kevin Chappell (T7) both of whom outperformed their salaries as we expected.

Overall, five of our seven picks made the cut at a challenging and fast Bay Hill, and we had three Top 7 finishes in the mix. Not a bad run as we head into Majors season!

2018 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Field

All of the World Golf Championship events bring together the world’s 64 best players, according to the OWGR, and this match play tournament is no exception.

Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson and Adam Scott have withdrawn while Brooks Koepka continues to rehab his injured wrist, and of course we are without the rejuvenated Tiger Woods due to his lowly world ranking.

Bubba Watson and Justin Rose of England at No. 17 during the first…

Bubba Watson and Justin Rose of England at No. 17 during the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 15, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

But otherwise, all of the big boys are in the mix including defending champion Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth.

Former winners including Jason Day, Matt Kuchar and Rory McIlroy also tee up, as does new dad Sergio Garcia, the returning Hideki Matsuyama and Valspar Championship winner Paul Casey.

The European Tour charge will be led by Tyrrell Hatton, Alex Noren and Rafa Cabrera-Bello, while an interesting curveball could be Kiradech Aphibarnrat, who has won two match play tournaments in Europe and Australia.

The lucky ones to come into the field following the five withdrawals are Kevin Na, Charles Howell III, Joost Luiten, Keegan Bradley and the in-form Luke List.

This Week’s Course Preview

The WGC Match Play was held at Dove Mountain for a long time, but it moved to the Austin Country Club in 2016 and returns for a third straight hosting this week.

The Par 71 layout, which measures 7,040 yards, is the typical Pete Dye design, with undulating curves and pot bunkers galore. Dye loves his risk and reward holes, and Austin CC features plenty of them: the perfect conditions for exciting match play golf. All four Par 5s are reachable and there’s a driveable Par 4 too, so spectators are in for a treat.

A course scenic view of the 15th hole green during the championship…

A course scenic view of the 15th hole green during the championship match at the World Golf Championships – Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 26, 2017 in Austin, Texas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The course is fairly exposed and so the Texan wind can be a factor, and we stay on Bermuda greens as well so continuity with the flat stick is key.

Be careful off the tee though: the layout winds around Lake Austin, and if you shank your ball into the drink you can kiss that hole goodbye.

Weather Forecast for Austin, TX

Remember folks: the action gets underway on Wednesday, for one week only, and runs straight through until Sunday.

The forecast is typically Texan: there will be plenty of warm, sunny spells with wind speeds peaking at around 20 mph, so it will be well worth keeping an eye out for the Texas Swing specialists this week.

The anomaly looks to be Saturday, with ‘isolated thunderstorms’ in the forecast. The early indication suggests these will hit in the morning and clear for the afternoon, and it remains to be seen how they will affect the day’s schedule.

Last Year’s Results from the WGC-Dell

Dustin Johnson got his hands on the trophy 12 months ago to continue a fine run of form heading into the Masters – and we all know how that story ended.

But three wins from three in the bracket phase over Webb Simpson, Jimmy Walker and Martin Kaymer set DJ up nicely for the knockout phase, where he overcame Zach Johnson and Alex Noren with ease by scores of 5&4 and 3&2 respectively.

In the semi-finals he ran into the tournament’s surprise package, Hideto Tanihara. The Japanese ace had already beaten Spieth in the group phase and had knocked out Paul Casey and Ross Fisher, before taking DJ all the way to an eighteenth and decisive hole. The world number one just prevailed.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taufSBVOqrE[/embedyt]

That set up a mouth-watering final with Jon Rahm, and the pair did not disappoint. DJ led by four at one point before Rahm roared back with three straight birdies, and the contest was finely poised with the Spaniard needing to win the final hole to send the tie into a playoff.

But Rahm’s drive on the 365-yard Par 4 flew through the green, leaving Johnson with a regulation up-and-down to secure the title.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-Dell this Week

Match play based DFS….it’s a world of opportunity! DraftKings are running a varied slate this week, so there’s plenty of options for gamers looking to pop their match play cherry.

• PGA $400k Match Play Special: The winner of this week’s headline contest will cop a top prize of $100k, with the top 70 teams earning a minimum of $100 in this $5 entry affair.
• PGA $20k Albatross: Standard gamers may just be thrown by the match play format this week, so make the most of your advantage with this single-entry contest. $12 entry could scoop the top prize of$2k.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC-Dell Match Play

If you are completely new to the WGC-Dell Match Play, here’s how it plays out. The top 16 players in the world are allocated seedings, and are thus split into the 16 groups of four players.

The quartet plays each other on a round robin basis, with one point awarded for a win and a half earned for a tie. When all of the players have taken each other on, the player who tops the pool with the most points goes on to the knockout phase.

From here it’s the traditional brackets – last 16-quarter-finals-semi-finals-final – before the winner is crowned following a golfing marathon on Sunday, where they will play approximately 36 holes! This match play event is a test of stamina as much as anything else….

So, that’s the basics in place. Now who the hell do we draft?

It’s funny, because some players are more suited to the match play format than others. Remember, this isn’t simply about making tons of birdies; pin placement is typically cruel in match play, and so often it is the player who makes the least mistakes who prevails.

That said, it is arguably better to side with players who will attack flags, rather than lay-up and settle for par. Fortune favors the brave in match play, and if you stick your approach into the water then hey: it’s only one hole lost.

In last year’s WGC Match Play we lost Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar and many other top-drawer players in this early pool phase, and that confirms two things: 1) this event is perhaps an unwanted distraction ahead of the Masters, and 2) the match play format doesn’t suit everyone. For example, Spieth has also lost his last four singles matches in the Ryder Cup and President’s Cup.

We’re inclined to side with the fiery characters in match play; those for whom winning becomes a personal crusade and losing a hole is an affront. It’s perhaps no secret why Rahm reached the final here 12 months ago and why Patrick Reed continues to reserve his best golf for the Ryder Cup.

And we have to respect the course and conditions, too. Who is putting well on Bermuda? Who typically plays well at Pete Dye courses, where strategy and layout management are key? The wind is a factor too, so anybody with repeated success in Texas should come under consideration.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-Dell Match Play

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Dell Match Play

*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Jon Rahm (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 90.40, GPFP: 117.52 Salary: $10,800)

We’ve spoken about drafting players with the right personality for match play golf, as much as anything else, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Rahm will become a key player in the Ryder Cup for many years to come.

What we like about the Spaniard this week in particular is that he has the undefinable ‘X Factor’, and that is reflected in his ability to play unbelievable golf shots and win holes he really ought not to.

That was evident here 12 months ago when he bullied the field, winning three-from-three in the pool phase before dominating Charles Howell III (6&4), Soren Kjeldsen (7&5) and Bill Haas (3&2) on route to the final, which he lost at the eighteenth to an otherwise rampant DJ.

There is an aura about Rahm, who is a big bloke and confident with it. His form is good, and there’s no reason why he can’t go deep this week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 2nd
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 3rd
• SG: Total – 14th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 92.05, GPFP: 77.32 Salary: $8,500)

We’re not going to be under-stacked with big personalities this week, put it that way. Hatton is a confident young man who is desperate to make his mark Stateside, and he knows that taking on – and beating – the world’s best man-to-man would be a good place to start.

It’s no coincidence that Hatton has performed well in the last two WGC events: T11 in the HSBC Champions, T3 in Mexico. It’s the kind of platform he thrives on, and lest we forget the Englishman has top-10s in the British Open and the PGA Championship to his name.

As far as match play experience goes, Hatton won his opening two games in this tournament last year and as such was unlucky to go out in a playoff against Charles Howell II, while in the EurAsia Cup he won both of his doubles matches as well as his singles rubber against Anirbhan Lahiri.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 6th
• Total Driving – 14th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 16th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Patrick Reed (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 69.23, GPFP: 58.85 Salary: $7,700)

The third wheel of our titan of tyrannical personalities sees us drafting Patrick Reed, a man whose best golf almost uniformly comes in the stars-and-stripes.

He beat Rory McIlroy in a memorable singles tie at the Ryder Cup in 2016, after downing Henrik Stenson in the same competition two years earlier. All in all, Reed has claimed a haul of seven points in the last two Ryder Cups, and that is almost unrivaled.

You would think that the pride he feels in delivering such performances should reflect in his efforts when playing ‘for himself’, and given that he’s in good form at present it’s not too hard to imagine a decent run from Reed this week.

He could and perhaps should have won at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago before making a curious decision to putt when off the green at 18, and followed up with a respectable T7 in the Arnold Palmer last time out.

A proud Texan, Reed has form and comfort in this neck of the woods.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 4th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 8th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Branden Grace (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 82.81, GPFP: 68.73, Salary: $7,300)

This is a tournament that hasn’t been all that kind to Branden Grace down the years, and he’s only escaped the first round once in five attempts.

But then Dustin Johnson was knocked out in the first round six times in eight starts in this competition prior to his victory, and while we’re not comparing Grace and DJ by any means it is still worth noting.

Besides, Grace has some pedigree in the match play format. He won a remarkable five points at the Presidents Cup in 2015, beating Kuchar in the singles, and then followed up two years later when halving a titanic tussle with DJ in the singles there.

The wind will not faze Grace either – he’s won on the Links in Scotland and has recorded top-10s in the Texas Open, and arrives in Austin on the back of a top-ten return in the Valspar Championship.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 7th
• Total Driving – 29th
• Scoring Average – 41st

Low-Tier Pick:

Zach Johnson (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 77.00, GPFP: 83.93 Salary: $6,800)

Zach Johnson has competed in the last 12 editions of this event, which showcases how long he has been in the world’s top 64 and also his love of match play golf.

Last year he made his way through a tough group which feature Kuchar, Brendan Steele and Tommy Fleetwood, and in the last 16 he had the rather bad luck of running into his namesake Dustin.

ZJ won both of his singles matches at the Ryder Cup in 2016 and the Presidents Cup in 2015; the latter against another proven match play stud in Jason Day.

A two-time Texas Open champion, the 42-year-old has finished inside the top-30 in six of his last seven strokeplay events.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 8th
• Birdie Average – 20th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 22nd

Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Dell Match Play

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 80.14, GPFP: 88.96 Salary: $7,400)

There is a certain swagger about Cantlay’s game, and you suspect that will transcend well into the match play arena.

A former US Amateur runner-up – an event which has a match play stint, Cantlay is another like Hatton who is looking to step up to the plate in 2018. He won the Shriners earlier in the season of course, but that isn’t exactly an elite-level tournament. That said, he won a playoff to secure it, and playoffs are a decent measure of match play suitability.

A handy T4 at the Genesis Open in his penultimate start was followed by a slightly disappointing T30 at WGC Mexico, although he did finish up with an excellent round of 66.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 28th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
• SG: Approach – 51st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Dell Match Play

Dylan Frittelli (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 82.75, GPFP: 66.20 Salary: $6,900)

There’s a fun story doing the rounds about Dylan Frittelli, whose time at the University of Texas was legendary. He sunk the winning putt that secured the NCAA Championship back in 2012, and you can imagine the celebrations were something to behold.

Good memories for the South African heading back to his old stomping ground then, and while he doesn’t have a wealth of match play experience to his name his game should suit. That long, straight hitting off the tee will put his opponents under pressure, and he appears to be able to handle pressure too having won a playoff at the Mauritius Open in December.

Frittelli is a big hitter who can club down, as his T11 finish at the Honda Classic shows.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Scoring Average – 4.50
• SG: Tee-to-Green – +1.252
• SG: Approach – +0.829

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”5.88%” bar_text=”8 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.84%” bar_text=”25 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”43.65%” bar_text=”55 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”5.56%” bar_text=”1 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”27.78%” bar_text=”5 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”80.16%” bar_text=”101 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the WGC-Dell Match Play with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram