Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Valero Texas Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Valero Texas Open
2018 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview
If you’d never heard the name Satoshi Kodaira prior to the RBC Heritage, then don’t feel bad: it seems you weren’t the only one.
Priced at 300/1 by the Vegas sportsbooks and $6,600 by the DraftKings salary-makers, the Japanese ace wasn’t supposed to win last week. But this is elite-level golf, and as we know anything can and usually does happen.
Much loved in his native Japan where he is a regular winner on Tour, Kodaira only participates in PGA TOUR events via invitation, and after a decent but under-the-radar showing on debut at Augusta where he finished T28, he secured an invite to Hilton Head.
And boy, did he take full advantage.
Satoshi Kodaira of Japan celebrates after making his birdie putt on…
Satoshi Kodaira of Japan celebrates after making his birdie putt on the third playoff hole on the 17th green during the final round the 2018 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links on April 15, 2018… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Propped up by a phenomenal second round of 63, the 28-year-old posted a final round of 66 and watched on as the leading trio – Ian Poulter, Luke List and Si-Woo Kim – all fell by the wayside.
Si-Woo just about clung on to force a playoff, but after bogeying two of the closing four holes to ruin his chances of a win in regulation play you always sensed that Kodaira was the favorite to prevail.
And he did, just, on the third extra hole with a 24ft putt to secure birdie and his first piece of silverware outside of Japan.
That confirmed that Kodaira is certainly one to watch, and also offered a gentle reminder of the talents of Si-Woo, who won at another Pete Dye course in last year’s PLAYERS Championship.
The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas for one week only for the Valero Texas Open, normally an eye-catching field on Tour but one that this year, for whatever reason, seems to have struggled to capture the imagination of the elite performers.
Perhaps that’s down to the grueling TPC San Antonio layout, but either way there is a fine opportunity for somebody to land a decent PGA TOUR title this week.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from Valero Texas Open
The RBC Heritage outcome may have been a bit baffling but cross the pond we notched yet another another victory for our European Tour picks with John Rahm taking home the top prize at his country’s national championship event.
Before we dive into that, lets recap our results from the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head: DeChambeau was among our top picks last week as he finished T3 with an impressive week despite his tough 75 on Saturday. When it was all said and done, five of our seven main picks made the cut.
Jon Rahm of Spain celebrates with winners trophy after the final…
Jon Rahm of Spain celebrates with winners trophy after the final round of the Open de Espana at Centro Nacional de Golf on April 15, 2018 in Madrid, Spain. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Back to the Euro Tour; Rahm truly delivered for fantasy players. In case you missed it, this is what we had to say about Rahm in last week’s European Tour Fantasy Predictions segment:
“This is one of those awkward game weeks where you will have those creeping seeds of doubt in your mind if you don’t draft Jon Rahm. His claims are so obvious this week it is hard to know where to start! In a weak field event, we have the OWGR number four in our midst, and it would be fair to conclude that Rahm is by far and away the best player in this field.
He has played in five European Tour events….and won two of them, and last week had genuine chances at The Masters until a few watery lapses of concentration cost his dearly. And as if to confirm his superiority, this is also Rahm’s ‘home’ course – he studied in Madrid – and he is known to have played many rounds here. Paying out the $12,200 stings….but if you don’t draft Rahm this week you are liable to miss out on rather a lot of points!”
Those predictions certainly came to fruition as Rahm took home the top prize. Plus, our second pick, Andrew ‘Beef’ Johnston, finished T12 to boot.
The Valero Texas Open 2018 Field
When the top four names in the betting for a PGA TOUR event are Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, Charley Hoffman and Chesson Hadley, you know it’s a tournament which has failed to draw an elite field.
This is still a tournament of some interest though, with a healthy dose of former winners (Kevin Chappell, Adam Scott, Zach Johnson) looking to add to their collection of silverware.
Si-Woo Kim will be looking to go one better in Texas, while young guns Luke List, Ollie Schneiderjans and Beau Hossler will be looking to secure their breakthrough win.
Maybe the tough conditions at TPC San Antonio will lend themselves to a more experienced campaigner taking the W? The likes of Pat Perez, Ryan Moore, Brendan Steele and Jimmy Walker will certainly be hoping so.
The irrepressible Shubhankar Sharma, Chris Paisley and Julian Suri will lead the European Tour’s charge.
Jim Furyk plays his shot from the 17th tee during the second round of…
Jim Furyk plays his shot from the 17th tee during the second round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 9, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
The first thing to note about TPC San Antonio is that it is hard – very hard. The lowest winning score since 2010 is -14, the highest -8, and a mean winning total of -11 gives a flavor of the challenge awaiting the players this week.
There are a number of reasons for the complexity. The players have room off the tee but the native areas of rough that designer Greg Norman has left to grow can be a nuisance; you may recall Kevin Na’s 16 here a couple of years ago.
And, of course, the wind is a huge factor. Largely exposed, the layout gets buffeted by the Texan breeze and makes lofted approach shots particularly tricky.
Measuring 7,435 yards for its Par 72, most of the downhill holes play into the wind, so this is a long course both by design and in nature. Longer hitters do tend to thrive here, although their advantage is negated somewhat by the fact that only one of the four Par 5s is reachable in two for players of any length.
The Bermuda greens run reasonably quick at around 11 on the stimpmeter, and all-in-all it will take an outstanding effort from tee-to-green and with putter in hand to lift the Valero Texas Open trophy come Sunday.
Golfers make their way up the 18th fairway during the final round of…
Golfers make their way up the 18th fairway during the final round of the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio AT&T Oaks Course on April 23, 2017 in San Antonio, Texas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for San Antonio, Texas
The volatility of the weather in Texas means that the forecast tends to change by the hour, and the outlook is rather ominous for the week ahead.
The chance of rain prior to Thursday’s start is minimal, so the course will naturally play firm and fast. Thursday itself is expected to be warm and dry, with wind speeds peaking at 14 mph.
And then it starts to get interesting. Friday’s outlook is for scattered showers, but look at those wind speeds: the day will start breezy enough, but by the close of play rather lively 22 mph gusts are anticipated.
Saturday is an oddity: thunderstorms are predicted – not helped by the 100% humidity that will leave the atmosphere feeling like Atlantis rather than San Antonio, and yet the wind is expected to die down somewhat.
Sunday should be an a-typical Texan affair: hot, sunny and windy.
Last Year’s Results from the Valero Texas Open
Kevin Chappell finally ended his PGA TOUR title drought 12 months ago with a one-shot triumph over the fast-finishing Brooks Koepka.
He was never lower than second place after 36 holes, and held the overnight lead heading into Sunday’s final round.
Koepka charged through the field with a closing 65 in tough conditions to hold the clubhouse lead, and Chappell was left needing a birdie at the last to convert. He duly obliged to secure a long overdue win following a catalog of top-five finishes.
Koepka, Tony Finau, Kevin Tway and Aaron Baddeley rounded out the top five.
Highlights | Final Round | Valero Texas Open
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valero Texas Open this Week
There is a curious air to the Valero Texas Open this week: a traditionally excellent event which very much has the feel of a B-List movie after the box office smash that was The Masters. Oh well, at least the daily fantasy sites are keeping their end up with some excellent contests this week….
- PGA $300k Fore: The chance to win $25k for a $4 stake, doing something you enjoy, doesn’t come around all that often, so tuck into this contest where the top 200 players all win a minimum of $50.
- PGA $100k Driving Range: If you feel in the dark about your draft this week then the majority of other players will be too. The good news is that you know with some sharp research we can really enhance our chances of winning, so tackle this three-team max contest with a top prize of $15k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valero Texas Open
It’s going to be a tough grind this week, and with the players unable to overpower the Par 5s scoring opportunities will be kept to a minimum.
TPC San Antonio is a layout where there is room off the tee but knowing where to miss the fairway is key; as mentioned, the natural rough stuff is not pleasant. Chappell only found 59% of fairways last year, but still managed to translate that into 72% of greens hit (he raked third for GIR), and so scrambling will also play a part, as arguably does going long off the tee: Chappell, Finau, Tway and of course Koepka are no strangers to getting the ball out there.
The greens are relatively flat but typically hard and fast, which is perhaps why Texans tend to thrive in their home tournament; 9 of the last 22 champions here have some kind of Texan connection.
And the wind….that can never be ignored around here, and that plus the fast conditions perhaps explains why the Australians tend to do so well around this stretch. Adam Scott and Steven Bowditch are former winners, and Aaron Baddeley and Cameron Smith both finished inside the top-six last year.
As for correlating courses, look to wind-affected layouts in typically hot locations. Greg Norman also designed El Camaleon, the host of the OHL Classic, and a number of players – Charley Hoffman, Pat Perez, John Huh – have thrived at both. Given that Jimmy Walker has won both events, we would have to say that the Sony Open is of some relevance too.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open
*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Sergio Garcia (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 79.0, GPFP: 86.06 Salary: $12,000)
In those weeks where few obvious winners reveal themselves in a particular field, it is usually best to stick with those who have been there, done that and have got the trophies (and green jacket) to prove it.
It would be an understatement to suggest that Sergio’s defense of the green jacket at Augusta did not exactly go to plan, but there were mitigating circumstances of course: a defending champion’s job is never easy, especially in a major, and the Spaniard was also celebrating the birth of his first child.
Having become accustomed to life as a new father, you would anticipate a return to form for a man who actually assisted Greg Norman in his design work of this layout.
Besides which, Sergio’s form is good, with a trio of top-10s in as many starts at the Valspar Championship, WGC Mexico and World Match Play.
We’re playing the percentages here, but like those savvy types who drafted Jon Rahm at the Open de Espana last week despite his lofty price tag, sometimes you have to suck it up and splash out on the man most likely to lift the trophy.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – +2.034
- SG: Approach – +1.349
- Greens in Regulation – 68.65%
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Luke List (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 72.1, GPFP: 90.85 Salary: $10,000)
DFS gamers have a decision to make this week. We all know that Luke List’s fine run of form will eventually come to an end, but will it do so after he has won somewhere or before?
We believe he is worth persevering with this week at a driver-heavy course where his length will pay dividends.
It’s amazing that his best performances this season – second at the Honda Classic, T7 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T3 at the RBC Heritage – have all come at tough and testing tracks, and so List won’t be overawed by the task in hand this week.
The 33-year-old has played well at another Greg Norman property – El Camaleon, the host of the OHL Classic, and despite missing the cut here 12 months ago he actually opened with an excellent round of 68.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th
- Scoring Average – 16th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 17th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Beau Hossler (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 65.6, GPFP: 57.73 Salary: $8,100)
You sense that Hossler, who lives in Dallas, is going to enjoy his return to home soil.
The University of Texas graduate lost out in a playoff to Ian Poulter at the Houston Open last time he was home, and the most appetising part of his chances is just how well he putted last week at the RBC Heritage, ranking first for SG: Putting.
A hot putter is welcome anywhere, of course, and TPC San Antonio should suit his game. A little wayward off the tee, the extra room here will please him, and he can scramble, chip and putt as well as anyone when his game is flowing.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 10th
- Scrambling – 49th
- Greens in Regulation – 65th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Scott Piercy (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 67.0, GPFP: 53.57 Salary: $7,400)
Somebody who ranks first for Strokes Gained: Approach and tenth for SG: Tee-to-Green, at this point in the campaign, has clearly been playing some excellent golf for quite some time. Maybe this week is when Scott Piercy finally cashes in.
Having recorded top-fives at both the OHL Classic and Sony Open, there is plenty to get excited about even if Piercy’s form at the Texas Open is mixed, at best.
Six of Piercy’s last eight rounds have been under par, and you don’t finish T2 in a US Open if you can’t grind and scrap at tougher courses.
A three-time PGA TOUR winner, Piercy has all the tools to go well this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 1st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
- Par Scoring Average – 14th
Low-Tier Pick:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 54.6, GPFP: 43.66 Salary: $6,900)
Born and raised in Texas with dual US-Mexican heritage, Ancer showed in his top-ten return at the Houston Open that he enjoys returning home.
That followed a pair of top-20 finishes at the Valspar Championship and Punta Cana Corales Championship, so everything is trending in the right direction for the 27-year-old.
With TPC San Antonio not proving to be that penal if you stray from the tee, Ancer’s clever short game and scrambling really could come into fruition this week.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 24th
- SG: Approach – 56th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 80th
Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open
Dylan Frittelli (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 75.1, GPFP: 60.05 Salary: $7,400)
The former NCAA champion at the University of Texas often seems t play his best golf in windy conditions, and so a return to his college stomping ground could be timely for the South African.
That fantastic college career has given way to an excellent start as a fully-fledged professional. Frittelli has won twice on the European Tour – including the breezy Mauritius Open earlier in the year – and he appears to have a very calm head on his shoulders when in contention.
A fantastic desert golfer, as evidenced by T5 and T6 Maybank Championship and Dubai Desert Classic earlier in the season, Frittelli also bagged a top-five return at another Greg Norman property – the Jumeirah Estates – at the European Tour’s season-ending DP World Tour Championship back in the winter.
Key Stats (European Tour):
- Average Driving Distance – 310.5yds
- Greens in Regulation – 71.08%
- Putts Per GIR – 1.74
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 59.8, GPFP: 47.82 Salary: $7,000)
What is it with Tom Hoge and poor final round performances?
Three times in a couple of months – the Genesis Open, the Houston Open and last week’s RBC Heritage – has he undone his fine early work by stinking the place out on Sunday.
He’s another who, if he could just string together four good rounds, has no glass ceiling; as evidenced by his T3 finish at the Sony Open earlier in the season.
Normally excellent from tee to green, Hoge – who studied in Texas – will be looking forward to a return to his old stomping ground, where he finished T9 back in 2016.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 28th
- SG: Approach – 35th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 65th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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