Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The FedEx St. Jude Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The FedEx St. Jude Classic
2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic Fantasy Preview
Classic golf events deserve classic finales, and that’s exactly what the Memorial Tournament got on Sunday.
If we were to write up all of the changes at the top of the leaderboard on a manic final day at Muirfield Village then we would still be typing by the end of next week’s US Open, so instead we’ll summarize real quick and say that Patrick Cantlay had one hand on the trophy and blew it, as did Bryson DeChambeau, who three-putted the last – although he clung on to take his place in a playoff with Kyle Stanley and Byeong-hun An.
Stanley fell off on the first additional hole after a wayward tee shot gave him an almost unplayable lie for his second, and DeChambeau – who had struggled all day off the tee, finding just five fairways all round – suddenly found an extra gear and saw off the challenge from An with a solid 12-foot championship putt.
It was a second Tour win for the flat-cap wearing Californian; not bad for a guy who questioned whether he was good enough to play on the PGA TOUR last year after missing 14 straight cuts. He has answered his critics – and himself – and was even measured up for his Ryder Cup outfit in Ohio….
This is your one-week warning prior to the year’s second major, the US Open at Shinnecock Hills, and so this week’s event, the FedEx St. Jude Classic, will offer a fascinating insight into who is striking the ball nicely and is heading to Memphis to win, and who badly needs to find some form ahead of another expected grisly test in arguably the toughest major on the circuit.
History buffs will note there is the potential for something remarkable this week too: Daniel Berger, who has won here for the past two years, will be looking to complete an extraordinary three-peat. If he can, the 25-year-old would be the first player since Steve Stricker in 2011 to achieve the feat.
And don’t forget anyone who breaks into the top 60 of the world rankings this week will qualify for the US Open, so there is plenty on the line in Tennessee.
Daniel Berger plays a shot from a bunker on the 15th hole during the…
Daniel Berger plays a shot from a bunker on the 15th hole during the first round of the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club on May 3, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
It’s nice being back in the winner’s circle with our Bryson pick last week. We had a lot of confidence in him leading into the week and coupled with Rose (T7) along some solid sleepers, and your roster should have performed well. In case you missed it, here’s was we had to say about Bryson leading into The Memorial Tournament:
When Bryson recorded a trio of top-five finishes in four starts earlier this year, we expected him to add a second PGA TOUR title to his collection at some point.
But it didn’t quite go to plan, and he appears to have cooled off lately with finishes of T37 and T42 at THE PLAYERS Championship and the Fort Worth Invitational respectively. But six of those eight rounds were at par or better, and so it’s hard to believe his form has deserted him completely.
A player well renowned for his scientific approach to picking his way around a golf course, Muirfield should suit Bryson’s game. He isn’t always at his best on Bentgrass, but his laser-like approach play should at least present him with plenty of opportunities.
Bryson DeChambeau poses with the trophy after winning The Memorial…
Bryson DeChambeau poses with the trophy after winning The Memorial Tournament Presented By Nationwide at Muirfield Village Golf Club on June 3, 2018 in Dublin, Ohio. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The FedEx St. Jude Classic 2018 Field
Many of the world’s leading players have decided to hone their game away from the cameras in readiness for the US Open, and you can hardly blame them for that.
Even so, there are four big hitters in town – Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson – and each of them will be looking to get their hands on some silverware ahead of Open week.
Berger will of course try to claim a remarkable hat-trick, and he will be joined by a whole raft of talented twenty-somethings which includes Tony Finau, Peter Uihlein, Byeong-hun An and Beau Hossler.
Patton Kizzire and Adam Scott, world ranked 63 and 65 respectively, will be looking to achieve big weeks to crash the party at Shinnecock Hills, while Billy Horschel – with four top-10s at TPC Southwind in as many visits – will be looking to finally get a ticket to the champion’s party in Memphis.
Other notables include the irrepressible John Daly and Braden Thornberry, the talented youngster who returns on a sponsor exemption after finishing T4 here 12 months ago.
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This Week’s Course Preview
The PGA TOUR heads south from Ohio to Tennessee this week, with TPC Southwind – which has been upgraded to a WGC venue in time for the 2019 campaign – our host.
This is a 7,244 yard, Par 70 that rewards straight hitting, with natural lakes, streams and ponds very much in play on ten holes. Ron Pritchard was the original designer with assistance from Fuzzy Zoeller, while Loren Roberts was brought in during 2004 for a renovation which removed a number of trees and switched the former Bentgrass greens to Bermuda.
The fairways are Zoysia, that breed of grass usually found in Asia and parts of South Africa, while the greens are small in size and run fast on the stimp.
This is a picturesque layout that also holds plenty of menace: none of the last five champions here have bettered a winning mark of -13. The eleventh is a par 3 that mimics the island set-up at Sawgrass, while the fourteenth is regarded as one of the toughest par 3s on Tour; a 231-yard monster that some players will need to hit a wood or rescue club into.
The par 4 eighteenth features a fairway that is wholly flanked by water down its left-hand side, and so our winner this week will have to do things the hard way to get that paycheck in their pants pocket.
A general view of the 18th green during the final round of the FedEX…
A general view of the 18th green during the final round of the FedEX St. Jude Classic at the TPC Southwind on June 11, 2017 in Memphis, Tennessee. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Memphis, TN
Anyone that has spent time in Memphis at this time of year will already have a good idea of what the players can expect: sunshine, and lots of it.
All four days of the St Jude Classic are set fair, according to the early forecast, with sunny intervals and intermittent cloud serving up temperatures in the region of 90 degrees.
It will be hot around TPC Southwind, with minimal breeze – nothing more than 10 mph to trouble the players – and fewer trees on the course meaning that shelter is hard to find.
Last Year’s Results from The FedEx St. Jude Classic
Heading into the final round of the St Jude Classic last year, a staggering 21 players were all within four shots of the lead, and on a captivating Sunday at one point nine players all shared first place!
To break through that size of pack it typically takes an excellent performance, and Daniel Berger’s bogey-free 66 was certainly up to the task.
Overnight leaders Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Ben Crane and Stewart Cink could not capitalise on their position, shooting 71, 73 and 73 respectively, as Berger held off the challenge of Charl Schwartzel and Whee Kim to complete back-to-back victories at TPC Southwind.
Cabrera-Bello hung on for a share of T4 alongside the likes of Kevin Chappell, Chez Reavie, Billy Horschel and Braden Thornberry.
Daniel Berger fires a 3-under 67 to win the FedEx St. Jude
In the final round of the 2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic, Daniel Berger shoots a 3-under 67 to win the title by 3 strokes over Brooks Koepka, Steve Stricker, and Phil Mickelson. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The FedEx St. Jude Classic this Week
All eyes are on the US Open now, let’s face it, and that is reflected in a low-quality field this week.
But that brings opportunities too, and we would like to think that with our comprehensive studying we can make the most of an event where the big guns are largely noticeable by their absence.
- PGA $250k Fore: With a field as sparse as this, we can take a calculated risk that our greater research will yield dividends. So, for $4, we can attempt to win the $50k first prize safe in the knowledge that the top 25% walk away with a $6 minimum to roll over to next week.
- PGA $20k Birdie: If the theme this week is maximizing our chances of cashing – even if that’s just 2x – ahead of the US Open then this $3 contest fits the bill. It’s a 20-entry max affair, with the top 22.5% of players doubling their money at the very least.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The FedEx St. Jude Classic
We’re in Par 70 territory this week, and that gives an indication of the kinds of players we should be considering in Memphis.
Par 4 scoring is a necessity, and particularly bogey avoidance too as TPC Southwind is anything but a doddle. Berger didn’t shoot a round lower than 66, but he made just nine bogeys in the 72 holes he played. Indeed, he was a lowly T34 at the halfway stage, but a run of ten birdies and two bogeys over the course of the weekend was enough to get the job done.
The Par 70 element suits players who have a habit of showing up at the shorter tracks where they can’t be overpowered with only two par 5s available. The Sony Open is a short Par 70 which has been won by the likes of David Toms and Fabian Gomez, who also have triumphed here at TPC Southwind, while the OHL Classic at Mayakoba – a Par 71 but one that’s less than 7000 yards long – shows Brian Gay and Harris English as dual champions with this St Jude Classic.
That potential link was added further weight with Patton Kizzire winning both the OHL and the Sony; he will be looking for a hat-trick of his own to rival Berger’s this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The FedEx St. Jude Classic
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The FedEx St. Jude Classic
Top Tier Pick #1:
Dustin Johnson (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 95.9, GPFP: 99.75 Salary: $11,700)
There were plenty of good signs for Dustin Johnson at Muirfield Village last week, where his all-round game was in decent shape.
He finished T8, gained strokes on the field in all departments apart from chipping, and posted a closing round of 67; that will give him confidence ahead of the trip south.
TPC Southwind has been a venue that has typically been kind to him through the years. DJ won here in 2012, finished fifth in 2016 and T10 in 2013, so there are plenty of good memories to call upon.
With these low-tier events we talk about motivation; why is so-and-so in the field this week? For Johnson, the answer is simple: he wants his status as the world’s number one golfer back.
He is working hard on his game and wants to be in a position to attack at the US Open, and while there may be some subtle swing changes to bed in if everything clicks for the 17-time PGA TOUR champion he could run away with this tournament at a course he has won at before.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 3rd
- Bogey Avoidance – 3rd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Charles Howell III (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 68.3, GPFP: 86.03 Salary: $8,600)
If Charles Howell is ever going to end this title drought, which dates back more than a decade now, then conditions and the weak field means this week surely is the perfect time.
Back on Bermuda, CHIII should thrive at a track where a premium is placed on accuracy over power, and his ability to find greens in regulation will surely help him at a track where the small and hard surfaces will be hard for many players to pinpoint.
Taking wedges and short irons into these greens will be key given that they are baked solid by the Memphis sun, and Howell is just about long enough to have that advantage in his arsenal this week.
His record at Southwind is so-so; he’s made four of the last five cuts, with a best finish of T26 and a worst of T39. There is a foundation for success there, at least, and Howell’s ability to avoid bogeys (sixth for Bogey Avoidance) should at least give keep him in the mix as others flounder.
Key Stats:
- Bogey Avoidance – 6th
- Greens in Regulation – 22nd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 37th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Luke List (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 68.7, GPFP: 54.93 Salary: $8,300)
This has been a revelatory season for the 33-year-old, and you wonder if, like Bryson DeChambeau before him, he stays patient that long-awaited win might be just around the corner.
What has impressed most about List this season has been his consistency: he’s made the cut in 75% of starts, finished inside the top-25 in 50% and recorded a top-10 in 25% of his appearances; that is excellent stuff.
And he has shown a versatility and aptitude for different types of golf: from shootouts like the RBC Heritage (T3) to more thoughtful golf at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (T7), List’s form is travelling across state borders and in style.
He can go long off the tee or club down and find fairways, and at $8,300 you could argue he’s a touch underpriced this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 3rd
- SG: Around-the-Green – 15th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 31st
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Chez Reavie (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 68.2, GPFP: 54.53 Salary: $7,600)
If you check the PGA TOUR’s shorter host venues, you will note that Chez Reavie has played well at pretty much all of them.
He certainly enjoys it at Southwind, as a formline of 4-12-27 testifies, ad has performed well at two obvious correlating courses: Waialae, host of the Sony Open, where his past two years of form reads 18-8, and at Mayakoba, where Reavie has finished 14-4 in the OHL Classic.
His game is based upon accuracy off the tee (he ranks third for fairways found on Tour) and precision on approach – an ideal setup for Southwind – and Reavie has actually won in the state of Tennessee before in the Web.com Tour’s Knoxville Open.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 3rd
- Bogey Avoidance – 18th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 27th
Low-Tier Pick:
Matt Jones (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 57.2, GPFP: 50.86 Salary: $6,900)
When preparing our draft for the AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest, we actually had Matt Jones on our shortlist. He didn’t make the final cut, but a T13 finish would have been just desserts for our confidence in him.
Jones grew up playing on Zoysia, and after studying in Arizona he is used to the conditions in the southern part of the US.
Again, he’s another who will need to curb his natural instinct to give it a rip with the big stick off the tee this week, but a decent enough formline at Southwind – 18-26-3 in his last trio of visits – suggests he is more than capable of that.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 28th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 31st
- Greens in Regulation – 47th
Sleeper Pick for The FedEx St. Jude Classic
Brian Gay (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 59.6, GPFP: 47.69 Salary: $7,500)
As a Texan who now resides in Florida, it’s little wonder that Brian Gay’s best moments tend to come on Bermuda.
He’s banked a top-ten here in the past and also in the Phoenix Open earlier this season, and his ability to keep his ball on a string has led him to three PGA TOUR titles including one at Mayakoba.
In his penultimate start in the Byron Nelson he carded a round of 62, and that – followed by a steady showing in the Memorial – has kept Gay on the radar.
Neat and tidy, the 46-year-old’s game is ideally suited to Southwind, and free of the distractions of qualifying for the US Open he can have another decent week on the Bermuda here.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 15th
- Driving Accuracy – 17th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 41st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The FedEx St. Jude Classic
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 55.1, GPFP: 44.10 Salary: $6,900)
With the firmness of the greens under the hot Memphis sun, not to mention their small stature, there may be plenty of scrambling to do this week.
This is an area where Abraham Ancer really shines. The talented young Mexican has a cracking short game, and he has shown glimpses in his debut PGA TOUR season that he could be one to watch in years to come.
We’re only interested in the here-and-now, truth be told, but there are upsides to Ancer: he has recorded a top-10 at one of our correlated courses, Mayakoba, and bagged another in the Houston Open.
This is a talented kid, and in a weak field event like this he may just shine.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 45th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 86th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 77th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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