Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

2018 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Fantasy Preview

Despite its cruel scheduling in-between a major and a WGC event, the RBC Canadian Open managed to serve up some entertaining golf last week.

Two of our picks, Dustin Johnson and Byeong Hun-An, were level at -17 with Whee Kim and Kevin Tway heading into the final round, and so spectators were assured a frenetic finish.

It didn’t quite pan out as DJ just did what he does best; make birdies and keep the field at arm’s length. The fact he had 18 PGA TOUR titles, and An, Kim and Tway have none between them, was perhaps the biggest clue of all as to how the tournament would turn out.

Johnson might just fancy an outstanding hat-trick in the coming weeks: victory at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, which starts on Thursday, and next week’s fourth and final major of the year: the PGA Championship at Bellerive.

Stranger things have happened…

The PGA TOUR splits into two again this week, with the best in the business teeing up at the Firestone Club for the WGC-Bridgestone and the best of the rest will head to the scenic Montreux G&CC for the stableford-format Barracuda Championship.

Most of the focus, from a DFS perspective and the eyes of the golfing world, will be on Akron, Ohio though so that’s where we’ll be putting our attention this week.

Can Tiger Woods bag a PGA TOUR win at a venue he has won eight times at in the past? We’ll dive into that an a lot more in a minute, but first let’s wrap up last week’s results.

Tiger Woods of the USA in action during the final round of the Open…

Tiger Woods of the USA in action during the final round of the Open Championship at Carnoustie Golf Club on July 22, 2018 in Carnoustie, Scotland. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

We’re back in the winner’s circle with a solid 1-2 punch at Glen Abby last week. Our Top Tier pick was DJ, and sure plenty may have seen that coming, but more importantly having Byeong Hun An as a mid-tier pick certainly helped us cash in.

With the win, DJ marks our forth winner picked this year and An marks our 10th runner-up on the season. Additionally, our GPFP algorithm indicated a high projected fantasy points (119.00) for DJ and he certainly met those expectations!

Dustin Johnson poses with the trophy during the final round at the…

Dustin Johnson poses with the trophy during the final round at the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey Golf Club on July 29, 2018 in Oakville, Canada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The 2018 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Field

Given that WGC prefix you know the drill here: the best players from all over the world are invited to tee up, and that includes many of the OWGR top-50 and 29 of the top-30 players in the FedExCup standings.

Newly minted British Open champion Francesco Molinari makes a swift return to action, and he will be joined by Johnson and British Open runners-up Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy.

Jordan Spieth, who showed signs of life at Carnoustie, will line up alongside fellow ‘frat pack’ members Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas, US Open champion Brooks Koepka and Masters winner Patrick Reed.

The European charge will be led Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Henrik Stenson and Alex Noren, while the likes of Patton Kizzire, Ted Potter Jr and Andrew Landry get an invite courtesy of their wins on Tour earlier in the campaign.

USA’s Jordan Spieth and USA’s Justin Thomas during preview day three…

USA’s Jordan Spieth and USA’s Justin Thomas during preview day three of The Open Championship 2018 at Carnoustie Golf Links, Angus. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

Firestone is a fitting host for such a prestigious event, and the players are assured a decent test of their credentials this week.

This is the longest Par 70 on the WGC circuit at 7,400 yards, with seven Par 4s measuring more than 460 yards apiece. And don’t forget the sixteenth hole: a 667-yard Par 5 which earned the nickname ‘the monster’ from Arnold Palmer.

These days bombers can find that green in two, although with a downhill rolling fairway and pond protecting the front of the green, only the brave need try.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the monster was one of several holes that averaged over par last year, and indeed only two averaged under par. This is a tough course from start to finish, with very little let-up.

The difficulty begins off the tee, where tree-lined fairways occasionally offer very little real estate to work with. There has been plenty of rain in the area (more on that later) so the rough is likely to be as penal as ever, too.

The Bentgrass/Poa greens are super-fast – as sharp as 13 on the stimp, depending on the weather, and with false fronts and shaved edges these can be tough to hold; especially true if the sun and wind dries them out.

There are some subtle elevation changes here too, so all-in-all the players can forget an easy lead-in to the PGA Championship!

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan plays a shot on the ninth fairway during…

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan plays a shot on the ninth fairway during the final round of the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club on August 6 in Akron, Ohio. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Akron, OH

The forecast from Monday through Wednesday is for “scattered thunderstorms,” although the actual percentage chance of rain ranges from 40-60%. It’s one of those weather predictions where even the experts don’t really have a clue what is about to happen.

So keep your eyes peeled to social media for live updates, and clearly if there is significant rainfall then the softer conditions will help to determine who makes our draft and who doesn’t.

According to the same forecast the actual four days of golf should be dry enough, with Thursday dawning warm and fairly settled, with minimal wind.

There’s more of the same on Friday before Saturday could be a cracker; 88 degrees and winds of no greater than 8 mph.

The event should conclude in another warm, dry and largely wind-free affair, but as ever stay tuned to the up-to-the-minute forecast for more accurate predictions.

Last Year’s Results from The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

A closing round of 61 – by far the week’s best – secured a first WGC title for Hideki Matsuyama here 12 months ago.

The Japanese ace was two shots back heading into the final round behind Zach Johnson and Thomas Pieters on -9, with Scott Hend lurking on -8.

Matsuyama’s round of 61 was four shots better than the next best of the day, and it will come as no surprise to learn that he won by five clear from Johnson, six from Charley Hoffman and eight from Pieters.

The group tied in fifth – Paul Casey, Rory McIlroy, Russell Knox and Adam Hadwin – were on -7; nine adrift of the winner!

Hideki Matsuyama extended highlights | Round 4 | Bridgestone

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2017 World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational, Hideki Matsuyama played one of the round of the years, tallying 7 birdies and an eagle to tie the course record of 61 and notch his 5th career PGA TOUR victory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational this Week

You will see lots of ‘it’s Tiger week!’ given the GOAT’s record at Firestone, but remember that the Tiger Woods of the fused spine era is a different player to the one who got it done eight times here before.

Could he win? Absolutely, but with high ownership expected he is an easy fade this week. That will help games who take a different route in this pair of contests:

• PGA $650k Drive the Green: Use your Tiger-less roster to take down this $5 contest, which is serving up a top prize of a cool $100k!
• PGA $475k Club Twirl: You’ll have to stump up $44 entry for this one, but the rewards are obvious: a top prize of $100k, plus the chance to double your money for finishing inside the top 12.5% of players.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

With demands placed upon the players from tee to green – never mind on these super-slick greens – clearly the winner this week will have the all-round package to beat an elite field.

There will be 76 take to the tee at Firestone, but it would be fair to say that around half of those names can be omitted from our inquiries simply because they aren’t of the required standard to win a high-profile WGC event.

Indeed, of the last five Bridgestone Invitational champions, you could argue that Shane Lowry is the only anomaly to that ‘class act’ category, but then he finished second in a US Open, so at some point he was certainly among the best in the business.

Length off the tee is obviously an advantage at this layout, but a touch of accuracy doesn’t hurt either; you don’t want to be trying desperately to spin your ball to hold these tricky greens out of wet rough, that’s for sure.

So Total Driving, with a slight emphasis on length, is a decent place to start.

Arguably the key stat is Greens in Regulation, in which Matsuyama thrived 12 months ago. He found 75% of greens from just 50% of fairways hit, which confirms his approach/recovery game was in fine working order. Hoffman, Pieters and Casey, who all finished inside the top-five, ranked third, third and fifth respectively for GIR.

Matsuyama’s winning mark of -16 rather skews the picture of just how difficult Firestone is, and let’s not forget that just three players finished double-digits under par. While 35 players finished under par, 40 ended the tournament in the + numbers, and so err on the side of caution as far as birdie-makers are concerned.

Perhaps, with 12 of the things, Par 4 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance might be important this week, especially if the course dries out.

As far as correlating courses are concerned, it is hard to draw parallels with any other property. That said, the list of Bridgestone champions have largely played well at Augusta – probably the tree-lined fairways and fast Bentgrass greens being the link, while Matsuyama has won at layouts with elevation changes (Phoenix Open) and in Ohio (Memorial Tournament). Perhaps those serve up some food for thought.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

Top Tier Pick #1:

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 77.3, GPFP: 88.85 Salary: $11,300)

Rory McIlroy has 14 PGA TOUR titles to his name: four majors, four FedExCup events and two WGC tournaments.

It would be fair to say then that he raises his game for the big occasion, and at a track where he has delivered five top-10 finishes in six visits clearly this is one of those places where he feels at home.

The Irishman went under the radar at the British Open because he was never in contention, and yet at one point on Sunday he held the clubhouse lead as others faltered. It was only the excellence of Francesco Molinari that prevented McIlroy having a sniff of a fifth major.

Weirdly, his natural game doesn’t necessarily suit Firestone, but then neither does Dustin Johnson’s ‘bombs away’ approach, and he too is a former winner here like McIlroy.

Could that duo go head-to-head in another thrilling Sunday shootout?

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 8th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 27th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Jason Day (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 80.3, GPFP: 94.74 Salary: $9,800)

It’s at tracks like this where the forgotten man of world golf tends to shine.

Jason Day doesn’t often enter into the discussion when talking about the elite – the DJ’s, the McIlroy’s, the Spieth’s and the Thomas’ tend to get top billing, and yet here we have a major champion and 12-time PGA TOUR winner; including two this year.

The Aussie can hit the ball long and straight, can shoot low on Par 4s while avoiding bogeys, and he can grind with the best of them.

Day is a great fit for Firestone, as evidenced by two top-five finishes here, and you wonder if this is the week where he reminds everyone of just how good a player he is.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 8th
• Scrambling – 3rd
• Total Driving – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 64.6, GPFP: 73.00 Salary: $8,400)

He may not have played much golf of late, but it was amazing to see a player who so confidently took this course apart one year ago available at a generous 50/1 with the sportsbooks.

Matsuyama’s missed cut at the British Open was his first appearance since the US Open, where he bagged yet another major top 20 finish.

The Japanese star has shown plenty of promising signs in his most recent performances; he fired rounds of 63 and 66 in the AT&T Byron Nelson, and opened with a 65 at the Memorial.

The 26-year-old appears to be on the cusp of a big performance then, and nobody would be surprised if it came at a layout he so clearly enjoys.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around the Green – 6th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 12th
• SG: Tee to Green – 35th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Kyle Stanley (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 60.4, GPFP: 53.76 Salary: $7,200)

If you can find the greens at Firestone you put yourself at a significant advantage over your competitors, and there are few GIR merchants more effective than Kyle Stanley.

He ranks fifth on Tour for that golden stat, and he is just about long enough off the tee to get into a position where he will have short irons in hand when approaching these slippery greens.

You could call Stanley a ‘bread and butter’ golfer; someone who does all the simple things well. It’s a formula that has given him two PGA TOUR titles and a pair of top-fives in GC events this season alone, so don’t take that as a criticism.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 5th
• SG: Off the Tee – 21st
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 32nd

Low-Tier Pick:

Haotong Li (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 64.8, GPFP: 51.84 Salary: $7,000)

The resumé of this young man continues to become more and more impressive, and it’s his work in the big events that impresses.

Solo third in the British Open last year, Li finished T32 on debut in the Masters earlier this year – not too shabby at all – and was a top-20 man at the US Open. The Chinaman played some good stuff at Carnoustie too; a final round of 76 ruining his card somewhat.

You sense that Li will become a major player one day – he’s still only 22-years-old – and events like this offer him a platform to show off his burgeoning talents.

Key Stats (European Tour):

• Birdie Average – 17th
• Driving Accuracy – 55.84%
• Greens in Regulation – 69.37%

Sleeper Pick for The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

Byeong Hun-An (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 68.1, GPFP: 54.49 Salary: $7,400)

The Korean’s T2 finish at the Canadian Open last time out was hugely significant: it saw him leap into the OWGR top-50, and thus earn a late invite this week.

We suspect he will take advantage at a layout which is sure to suit his game. A brilliant tee-to-green merchant, he can shoot low numbers or grind it out – as he did when banking a top-five at the Honda Classic earlier this season.

T2 in Ohio already this year at the Memorial, An will win on US soil one day soon….i’s just a question of when!

Key Stats:

• SG: Off the Tee – 13th
• Scoring Average – 30th
• SG: Approach – 35th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

Kevin Chappell (Odds: $7,300, FPPG: 58.6, GPFP: 70.30 Salary: $7,300)

In among the various machinations of the British Open, you wonder if the return to form of Kevin Chappell has been largely missed by gamers.

He went out in the penultimate group on the Sunday, and clung on to a T6 finish as he rode a literal and metaphorical storm.

It’s very difficult to get too excited about a player with just one PGA TOUR win to his name, but with 28 career top-tens it’s not as if he can’t get into contention.

A mini formline of 13-3 at Firestone appeals immensely too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off the Tee – 10th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 11th
• SG: Approach – 40th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.94%” bar_text=”20 out of 252 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”18.65%” bar_text=”47 out of 252 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”36.90%” bar_text=”93 out of 252 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”11.11%” bar_text=”4 out of 36 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”27.78%” bar_text=”10 out of 36 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”77.38%” bar_text=”195 out of 252 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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