Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Safeway Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Safeway Open

2018 Safeway Open Fantasy Preview

The long wait for the new PGA TOUR season to begin is finally over!

Forgive our sarcasm, as after just two weeks from the TOUR Championship – a gap bridged by the Ryder Cup – we’re already heading into the wrap-around campaign for the 2018/19 season.

Events in Paris ensure that all those with a fondness for the stars & stripes will be wanting to crack on with ‘normal’ golf as quickly as possible. Rumors of discontent in the American camp – led by Jordan Spieth’s apparent refusal to partner up with Patrick Reed – and a course ideally suited to the preferences of the European team meant that Ryder Cup 2018 was one to forget for Team USA.

Needless to say, improvements need to be made prior to the competition rolling through Whistling Straits in two years’ time.

Given the harsh demands on the players throughout the year, you can see why the PGA TOUR introduced the wraparound campaign; but this is golf’s purgatory state, where star names are notably lacking.

This week’s affair, the Safeway Open, is followed by a three-week jaunt in Asia, a brief stop-off in Vegas and then a trip to Mexico as we hurtle towards Thanksgiving and Christmas once more.

It is tough to excited about the PGA TOUR at this time of year, but hey: there’s DFS cash to be made, and weak fields tend to bring plenty of variance for gamers to exploit.

So how are things shaping up ahead of the trip to Napa?

Brendan Steele of the United States plays a shot during a practice…

Brendan Steele of the United States plays a shot during a practice round prior to the 2018 PGA Championship at Bellerive Country Club on August 8, 2018 in St Louis, Missouri. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Event’s Fantasy Results 

WOW, what a close to the season!  We finally jumped on the Tiger train at the right time and knocked it out of the park at the TOUR Championship.

All seven of our main picks finished within the Top 11 including our top picks Rory and Tiger being the final pairing on Sunday.

Horschel’s solo 2nd and Simpson’s T4 helped us cash in all across the board on DFS two weeks ago.

Tiger Woods holds the Calamity Jane trophy after the final round of…

Tiger Woods holds the Calamity Jane trophy after the final round of the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club on September 23 in Atlanta, Georgia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Heck, we even had a first place winner on DraftKings this week with a 528 point triumph!

The 2018 Safeway Open Field

Vanquished Ryder Cupper Phil Mickelson is the headline act in something of a fallow week for big names.

How Leftie will recover from the problems in Paris is anybody’s guess, but a return to his favorite stomping ground on the West Coast, and the putting surfaces he loves, should give him a timely boost.

Patrick Cantlay, the only other player in the field to make it to the TOUR Championship, is one of the more intriguing propositions in town, and of course plenty of attention will be on Brendan Steele, the two-time defending champion looking to become the PGA TOUR’s first ‘three-peater’ since Steve Stricker did the business in the John Deere Classic from 2009-11.

Most of the 50 players who earned their tour cards, either from the Web.com rankings or the Finals, will tee up, including Lucas Glover, Hunter Mahan and Denny McCarthy, officially the best player on that Tour in 2018.

Elsewhere there are rare starts for Fred Couples and John Daly on the PGA TOUR as organisers try to ramp up interest in the event.

Phil Mickelson of the United States plays a shot from a bunker on the…

Phil Mickelson of the United States plays a shot from a bunker on the 18th hole during the first round of the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club on September 20, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

We’re off to the Silverado Resort & Spa in Napa, California this week, with the action unfolding on the Robert Trent Jones built North Course.

A steady Par 72 excursion of 7,166 yards, Silverado features the Poa Annua greens native to this neck of the woods, and these tend to be on the slow side.

There are some driving lines to overcome too with narrow fairways in play, but this is the kind of jolly, straightforward test you would expect for the wraparound season. The average winning score here is roughly mid-teens under par, depending on how the wind blows.

The Par 3 second played over par last year, not a surprise given it’s 245 yards into the wind, but there are few gremlins to overcome at Silverado. There are a number of doglegging holes that primarily test right-to-left ball striking, so it’s not a surprise that course form has been a factor here before.

The Par 4 twelfth is something of a risk-and-reward hole: take driver and you will be left with the shortest of wedges in, and leaderboard followers should note that two of the four Par 5s come within the trio of closing holes.

A general view of the 18th fairway and green during the final round…

A general view of the 18th fairway and green during the final round of the Safeway Open at the North Course of the Silverado Resort and Spa on October 8, 2017 in Napa, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Napa, CA

Traditionally at this time of year in Cali, we would expect lots of perfect weather.

That may just come at the weekend, according to the forecast, but the build up to the event sure is interesting.

There’s rain – some of it heavy – predicted for Tuesday and Wednesday, and that will surely help to soften the conditions.

That should clear in time for Thursday and Friday, where temperatures will be warm enough with wind speeds of around 13 mph.

The weekend looks much nicer, with the mercury hitting 80 degrees. Keep an eye out for the wind on Sunday, though: gusts of up to 16 mph are expected.

Last Year’s Results from the Safeway Open

An outstanding show of ball-striking was enough for Brendan Steele to keep hold of the trophy he had won 12 months prior.

He trailed 54-hole leader Tyler Duncan by two shots heading into the final round, with Chesson Hadley and former Safeway Open champion Emiliano Grillo also in the hunt.

But a classy show from the Silverado specialist, carding a 69 in otherwise tough scoring conditions with the wind up, was enough to post -15 and take the spoils from Tony Finau, whose title charge was halted by a double bogey on the back nine.

Hadley and Phil Mickelson finished tied for third, with Duncan and Graeme DeLaet in T5.

Highlights | Brendan Steele rallies for the win at Safeway

In the final round of the 2016 Safeway Open, Brendan Steele rallied coming down the stretch to finish with three-straight birdies to claim his second career PGA TOUR title. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Safeway Open this Week

It’s the first event of the wraparound season, and after taking the week off or the Ryder Cup the DFS sites have slid back into action with a diverse and varied slate. We’re not talking major standard, by any means, but there’s still lots of chances to trouser some serious cash at an unpredictable time of the campaign.

• PGA $300k Tee-to-Green: $100k is $100k, whether you win it at the Safeway Open or The Masters. So give this contest a try; it may not fill, and some tasty overlays could be available for your $6 entry.
• PGA $10k Short Game: If you want to start the Fall Season in more conservative fashion, this contest offers a minimum 2x win guarantee with a top prize of $500; not bad for $1 entry.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Safeway Open

If you look back through history at Silverado, there have been several ways to get the job done.

That said, the last four winners here – Steele, Grillo and Sang-moon Bae – share an attribute of being able to hit the ball very straight and pretty darn far too.

Look at Steele’s stats from 12 months ago: he ranked first for Total Driving and fourth for GIR, which was actually a fantastic 79% of all greens found in regulation. His putting average, which is hardly the most instructive stat anyway, was way down, but who cares when you can land the ball on a postage stamp as Steele seems able to do at Silverado.

It’s a layout where we would favor the longer hitters; especially if there is rain around and a strong headwind to tackle. Last year some 40 players averaged 300 yards or more off the tee, with Steele, Finau, Hadley and DeLaet all ranking inside the top 13 for Driving Distance.

Accuracy doesn’t seem that important – Mickelson ranked dead last for Driving Accuracy, with Finau 39th and DeLaet 52nd – although clearly there’s an advantage to finding the fairways no matter where you play your golf.

So hit it long and straight and record monstrous GIR numbers, or hit it long, miss fairways but scramble and putt like a demon; that seems to be the idea at Silverado.

Oh, and don’t forget to play the Par 5s well. These aren’t stretches where eagles are flying around left, right and center, but -11 of Steele’s winning -15 was made on the long holes.

And we’re willing to suggest that course form might be key, too. Steele is a multiple-time champion but then Grillo, the 2015 winner, was just three back with a round to play last year. Luminaries as diverse as Mickelson, Martin Laird and Tyrone van Aswegen have delivered multiple top-10 finishes at Silverado, which confirms a fondness for West Coast golf and/or Poa Annua is a huge help.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Safeway Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Safeway Open

Top Tier Pick #1:

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 73.00, GPFP: 57.94 Salary: $11,600)

With just one PGA TOUR title to his name, you could argue that Patrick Cantlay is an unlikely favorite with the sportsbooks this week.

But then again, these firms employ number-crunching experts to work out who is the most likely to win, and clearly they are banking on the untapped potential that the former world number one amateur brings to the party.

We agree with them. Cantlay is just one of two players in this field who made it to the TOUR Championship, and that confirms his consistency throughout the season. That ball started rolling when he won another wraparound season event, the Shriners, earlier in the year.

The UCLA graduate was born in Long Beach and will surely relish the challenge on home soil, and he gave a hint of his love of Cali golf when finishing T4 in the Genesis Open earlier in 2018.

He’s been playing some good stuff of late, including T12 at the British Open, T6 at the WGC Bridgestone and T8 at the Northern Trust, and those examples of his class confirm why he is a red-hot contender for honors this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 8th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 9th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 17th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Beau Hossler (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 67.79 GPFP: 54.23 Salary: $9,100)

What a fantastic first full season on the PGA TOUR for Beau Hossler.

He finished second on two separate occasions, including that play-off defeat to Ian Poulter in the Houston Open. With the 54-hole led in hand, what we really liked about Hossler on that fateful Sunday is that he didn’t crumble, shooting a final round of -5, and really it was just that the Englishman was able to go toe-to-toe with him.

All in all, there were five top-10s for the Californian, plus a staggering 24 cuts made in 28 starts.

He nearly made it all the way to the TOUR Championship, bowing out of the FedExCup race after the BMW, and that’s a fine achievement for one so young.

After banking a pair of top-10s in the wraparound season last year, we’re expecting Hossler’s class to show here once more.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 4th
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 48th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 49th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Jamie Lovemark (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 60.30, GPFP: 50.05 Salary: $7,700)

You sense that Jamie Lovemark hasn’t even scratched the surface of what he is capable of just yet.

He has shown flashes of exceptional golf these past few years, but too often he throws in a bad round or even a nightmarish hole that seems to scupper his chances of recording more big money finishes.

The off-season – or what there is of it – is a good time for reflection, and maybe Lovemark has had a chance to reflect on his inability to fulfil his potential thus far.

Still, there are reasons to be positive. In a two-week spell at the Wyndham Championship and the Northern Trust, the Californian fired four rounds of 66 or better; propelling him into the meat of the FedExCup play-offs.

Lovemark turned 30 this year, and anyone who has passed that landmark will know it brings with it plenty of soul searching. With 13 top-ten finishes to his name on the PGA TOUR, perhaps the benefit of extra maturity will get this fine talent over the winning line.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 3rd
• Driving Distance – 37th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 45th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Martin Laird (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 57.84, GPFP: 66.52 Salary: $7,300)

There are some players on the PGA TOUR who are wholly predictable.

They turn up at the same courses, year in and year out, and in their best impression of a cash cow they bank consistently good payouts to have their followers wondering why they can’t do it elsewhere.

One such individual is Martin Laird, who has monopolized himself as something of a West Coast specialist, in among fine performances in Texas.

Check out the Scot’s record here (17-8-64-3) and at the Genesis Open (8-9) for further proof of that.

Clearly, playing in and around California suits Laird – maybe it’s the win, maybe it’s the Poa Annua greens – but either way, at $7,300 DFS gamers are able to bag a bargain in this proven West Coast performer.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 35th
• Total Driving – 42nd
• SG: Putting – 43rd

Low-Tier Pick:

Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 53.83, GPFP: 62.98 Salary: $6,700)

For a player who has won three times on the PGA TOUR and who has represented his country at the Olympic Games, it’s borderline offensive that Jhonny Vegas is priced at just $500 more than Mark Mulder, the former MLB pitcher who has never played in a professional golf event.

But that’s exactly where the Venezuelan finds himself after a fallow 2018.

We’re not going to be too hasty to give up on him, however, as in his penultimate start he recorded three rounds of 68 or better in finishing T15 at the Northern Trust.

With 20 cuts made in 27 starts, Vegas can and has hung with better company than this, and maybe the wraparound season will be where he comes firing back to form.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 38th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 79th
• Scrambling – 82nd

Sleeper Pick for the Safeway Open

Danny Lee (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 52.71, GPFP: 63.25 Salary: $7,500)

While he hasn’t quite been able to put it all together, there has been some excellent golf from Danny Lee of late.

In his last 16 rounds, the New Zealander has compiled eleven rounds in the 60s and six at 67 or better, which suggests that his game is in excellent order right now.

Famous last words, but you would like to think that such form, in a low-quality field, will yield positive results for Lee, a former winner on both the PGA and Web.com Tours.

He’s never set Silverado alight, but the 28-year-old is playing some of his best, most consistent golf as of now.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 39th
• Scrambling – 52nd
• SG: Putting – 70th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Safeway Open

Brandon Harkins (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 60.79, GPFP: 48.63 Salary: $6,900)

Here’s Brandon Harkins’ form in early season events in California at the end of 2017/start of 2018: 15-12-8-9.

That was a run that took in courses as diverse as Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines and Silverado, which suggests that he simply enjoys playing golf anywhere around the West Coast. Coincidence? Possibly not, given that he was born in Walnut Creek, studied at Cali State and still plays out of the Orinda club.

Harkins’ season fell away from there, but with 21/30 cuts made and a return to California, he could be a sleeper play that really brings home the bacon if he matches last season’s heroics.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 21st
• Driving Distance – 38th
• SG: Putting – 54th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.97%” bar_text=”27 out of 301 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.27%” bar_text=”61 out of 301 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”36.55%” bar_text=”110 out of 301 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”13.95%” bar_text=”6 out of 43 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”32.56%” bar_text=”14 out of 43 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”76.41%” bar_text=”230 out of 301 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for Safeway Open with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram