Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2019 Farmers Insurance Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Farmers Insurance Open

2019 Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview

So, it turns out you can completely change your life in the space of just four days.

As proven by Adam Long at the Desert Classic, professional golf gives anyone and everyone a chance at redemption.

With a formline reading MC-MC-MC-MC-63-MC-MC-MC dating back to the tail-end of the 2018 Web.com Tour, all the 31-year-old had on his mind was making a cut in just his sixth PGA TOUR start as a rookie.

Those ambitions may have changed somewhat when he fired an opening round of -9, but with Phil Mickelson three shots clear Long surely didn’t expect the rest of the week to unfold as it did.

But opportunity often comes knocking when you least expect it. Lefty played the front nine of the Stadium Course on Sunday in -1, and when he started the back nine with five straight pars the door was ajar.

Adam Hadwin, cheered on by a huge traveling Canadian contingent, made six birdies in the space of eight holes to wrestle control of the leaderboard, but as it dawned on him what he might be about to achieve, he played the final seven holes in +1.

And so up stepped Long to the plate, with minimal expectations and no pressure. He had carded a bogey-free -6 heading into the final hole, and there he drained a clutch 15ft putt to secure not only his first PGA TOUR title, but his first professional win anywhere!

At Vegas odds of 500/1, there would have been plenty of people smiling inside and out of Long’s camp late on Sunday.

Without disrespecting the events that have come until now, the 2019 PGA TOUR campaign really kicks into gear in the next month or so.

This week we’re off to the legendary Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open, before stopping off at TPC Scottsdale, Pebble Beach and Riviera for the Phoenix Open, AT&T Pebble Beach and Genesis Open respectively.

Business is about to pick up!

Tiger Woods of the United States waits to hit to the third green…

Tiger Woods of the United States waits to hit to the third green during the final round of the Hero World Challenge at Albany, Bahamas on December 02, 2018 in Nassau, Bahamas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

As we previously stated, Adam Long surprised us all last week with his first PGA TOUR victory. 

This is one of those weeks when everyone is left scratching their heads wondering who and why? As for us, our top pick was Rahm who finished 6th with nothing much to show for it, even with his double 66’s on Thursday Friday.   

The course played easy and loads of guys went low, including Phil Mickelson who made for a great pick at a low price.

Next we move on to Torrey Pines for some better action.

Adam Long of the United States poses with the trophy after winning…

Adam Long of the United States poses with the trophy after winning the Desert Classic at the Stadium Course on January 20, 2019 in La Quinta, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The 2019 Farmers Insurance Open Field

Torrey Pines is the usual starting point for many of world golf’s big guns for the calendar year, and the 2019 edition is no exception.

Tiger Woods has won here seven times in the preceding 19 years – a haul which includes various absences – and so the Big Cat is the clear headline-maker given his redemptive 2018.

Others will stake their claim for Torrey Pines glory. Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth have never won here, despite numerous visits, and this will represent Rory McIlroy’s debut at the layout.

Jason Day is a two-time champion at Torrey Pines – he will defend his trophy this week, while Jon Rahm and Brandt Snedeker will tee up in the hopes of enjoying further success in this part of California.

Xander Schauffele tees up for the first time since his Tournament of Champions triumph.

Rickie Fowler of the United States waits to play his tee shot on the…

Rickie Fowler of the United States waits to play his tee shot on the 14th hole during the final round of the Hero World Challenge at Albany Bahamas on December 02, 2018 in Nassau, Bahamas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

The iconic Torrey Pines is on host duties this week, as it has been for this tournament since 1968.

The event is played over two courses: the imaginatively-named North and South. These were originally designed by Billy Bell Jr, and the players tackle both on rotation on Thursday and Friday before the South Course takes sole responsibility for the weekend.

The South track enjoyed a host of renovations courtesy of Rees-Jones in 2001, and today plays at a lengthy 7,698 yards for its Par 72. It is long, and with narrow fairways can become something of a grind for the players – it hosted the 2008 US Open, and the winning mark for this event has ranged from -6 to -13 in the past three years. There are lots of bunkers and thick rough, although at least the Poa Annua greens are a decent size.

The North course is a tad easier – the two lowest rounds last year, 64 by Jason Day and 65 from Tony Finau, were recorded here, and the shorter length of 7,258 yards plays its part in that. The greens were switched to Bentgrass prior to the 2017 edition and they ran much faster; as speedy as 12.5 on the stimp, in fact.

On average, the North layout plays at roughly two strokes easier than the South, so firing in a low round here is essential.

Phil Mickelson in action during Wednesday Pro-Am at Torrey Pines GC….

Phil Mickelson in action during Wednesday Pro-Am at Torrey Pines GC. La Jolla, CA Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA

Cool and calm looks set to be the theme in the LA Jolla area of Southern California this week.

There is a 0% chance of precipitation for each of the four days, according to the forecast; a bold prediction and no mistake, but reflective of the conditions for the week ahead.

It’s not particularly hot right now, with a top temperature of roughly 74 degrees greeting the players.

But at least it will be dry, and wind speeds aren’t expected to get up beyond 10mph either.

Last Year’s Results from the Farmers Insurance Open

After an opening round of 73, Jason Day’s backers could have been forgiven for tearing up their tickets on day one of last year’s Farmers Insurance.  That left him a full eight shots adrift of leader Tony Finau, and seven shy of Ryan Palmer and Ted Potter.

But an exquisite 64 on Friday changed the whole complexion of the Australian’s event, and at -7 he was just four adrift of the halfway leader, Palmer.  The conditions took a turn for the worse at the weekend with some rather heavy winds taking hold, and in the end 71-70 was enough for Day to complete a second Farmers Insurance Open victory.

Mind you, he needed the help of six extra holes to see off Palmer and Alex Noren, who he tied with at -10 during regulation play. Palmer ducked out on the second extra hole having made par at the 18th, with the remaining pair sharing the next three. But a horror drive from Noren back at the 18th laid the foundations for Day’s victory after the Aussie made birdie.

Jason Day’s extended highlights | Round 2 | Farmers

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the second of the 2018 Farmers Insurance Open, Jason Day carded 8 birdies en route to an 8-under 64 on Torrey Pines’ North Course. The Farmers Insurance Open is held at Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, near San Diego, California in the early part of the season known as the “West Coast Swing”.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Farmers Insurance Open this Week

There’s a really varied slate of contests this week, with something for all tastes and budgets. The ante is upped at Torrey Pines for the 2019 PGA TOUR campaign, and the same can be said for this cracking range of DFS contests.

• PGA $500k King of the Pines: There’s a new contest here named ‘King of the Pines’, where you can trouser an astonishing $100k for just a $5 entry!
• PGA $250k Return to Greatness: Assumedly, this is a nod to Tiger Woods’ stunning return to form last season ahead of a trip to this spiritual Torrey Pines home. Either way, for a $33 entry you could bank the jackpot prize of $50k!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Farmers Insurance Open

While this will alienate some of the non-believers out there, there is a strong argument to be made for course form as the key angle at Torrey Pines.

We know that Tiger has won seven times here, but look at Day and Snedeker too. The former has won twice at this layout, finished T2 and has another top-10 to his name, while the latter had two top-10s to his name, including a T2, prior to his first victory. Then Sneds finished T2 again prior to his next win at Torrey Pines.

Even ‘shock’ winners here, such as Scott Stallings and Ben Crane, have shown form. Stallings finished T2 the year after his victory, and Crane was T7 a year prior to his triumph. Nick Watney, meanwhile, has four top-10s here since his triumph, so Jon Rahm – who won on debut in 2017 – is a serious anomaly!

We expect the classier sorts to rise up the leaderboard too. Woods, Day, Bubba, Mickelson and even John Daly are major champions to have won a Torrey Pines, while we can surely put Rahm and Snedeker in that class of player.

Don’t forget that Watney is a WGC and FedEx Cup event winner as well, so he was no slouch in his prime.  Out on the course, the players will play 75% of their holes on the long and tough South Course, and here Total Driving has to be the key stat. Finding fairways, but with length, is crucial.

Unusually, the business end of the holes tends to be easier, with large greens easy enough to find for accurate types with a long iron in hand.  And nobody won an event of this class without putting well on the Poa Annua; Day ranked fourth for Putting Average 12 months ago, and found 54% of fairways from an average drive distance of 20th.

A strong round at the North Course is almost a pre-requisite: it was his 64 here 12 months ago that got Day’s challenge back on track.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

*This early in the season some players do not qualify enough stats to register a FPGP and GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1:

Justin Rose (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 100.8, GPFP: 80.66 Salary: $10,800)

If you believe in the sanctity of the FedEx Cup system, then Justin Rose has been the best player on the planet for the 12 months. That class, and the fact he is a major champion, offers up all the clues we need to conclude that the Englishman should go well at Torrey Pines.

He’s served up back-to-back top-10s here, and we can summarize that his game is perfectly suited to a grip-and-rip contest where avoiding bogeys is just as important as making birdies.

A winner as recently as November on the European Tour, Rose followed that with solo third at the Hero World Challenge, and while his effort at the Desert Classic was a flaccid one we’re not going to get too downhearted about a player who posted three rounds of 68 there.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 8th
• SG: Putting – 10th
• Total Driving – 47th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Charles Howell III (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 88.9, GPFP: 100.49  Salary: $9,100)

It might feel slightly masochistic to draft Charles Howell III in a field of this quality, but he continues to play well ahead of a trip to a layout he adores.

Chucky’s victory at the RSM Classic may yet prove the catalyst for a brave new world – lest we forget, Matt Kuchar waited five years for a win and then two came along at once.

He followed up with T14 at the Tournament of Champions and T8 at the Sony Open, and while he hardly covered himself in glory at the Desert Classic we’re not going to hold too much stock in the results of an event as manic as that.

Instead, let’s focus on CHIII’s awesome record at Torrey Pines: ten straight cuts made, with two top-fives, a T6 and a pair of T9s, with another pair of top-20s into the bargain.

That history, allied to how well he is striking the ball at the moment, should get the juices flowing.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 2nd
• Total Driving – 10th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 20th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 88.0, GPFP: 70.44 Salary: $8,100)

In three visits to Torrey Pines, Emiliano Grillo has been getting progressively better – MC-33-12 – and right now he is playing some of the best golf of his career.

The Argentine finished T2 at the CIMB Classic during the Fall period, and backed that up with T14 at the WGC HSBC Champions, solo 15th at the Mayakoba Classic and T8 from a trip to Japan for the Dunlop Phoenix.

A return to American soil yielded a T22 return from the Sony Open, and you get the impression that the world number 49 is on the verge of something truly special.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 3rd
• Total Driving – 11th
• Greens in Regulation – 34th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

J.J. Spaun (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 83.4, GPFP: 66.74 Salary: $7,300)

The 28-year-old has played a lot of golf at Torrey Pines as a Cali native, and his results here of T23 and T9 confirm the fact he is comfy at the layout. It’s hard not to like his current form either, with T10 at the CJ Cup, T15 at Shriners and T3 at the Mayakoba Classic within his last trio of outings.

Spaun was fairly disappointing at the Desert Classic, but really you can perhaps forgive a man for not showing his best at a chaotic split course, pro-am type affair.  In normal stroke play, Spaun has been on fire of late.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 26th
• Greens in Regulation – 31st
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 46th

Low-Tier Pick:

Anders Albertson (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 77.4, GPFP: 61.94 Salary: $7,000)

When we think of Web.com Tour graduates, we probably think of the archetypal super-fit stud who hits it miles off the tee and bullies Par 5s into submission.

But Anders Albertson does things a little bit differently, and his precise game should stand him in good stead at tougher tests like Torrey Pines.

The 25-year-old ranks 26th for SG: Tee-to-Green so far this season, with a ranking of 12th for SG: Approach and a suitably high GIR count as a result.

He’s a young man for whom the quicker PGA TOUR greens remain a tough test, but this rookie season is a learning curve for a player who already ranks inside the top-50 for one of the game’s key data metrics: Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 23rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
• Scoring Average – 34th

Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Daniel Berger (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 107.5, GPFP: 108.58 Salary: $7,900)

It’s strange that at the age of 25, Daniel Berger is considered something of a forgotten man on Tour.

A two-time PGA TOUR winner, he’s also lost in two other play-offs and finished in the top-10 of a Masters and a US Open. It’s pretty strong going for such a young talent lost in the shadows of Spieth, Thomas, Schauffele and co.

Perhaps a new year will bring new perspective for a young man once tipped as the US’ premier young golfer, and four rounds in the 60s at the Desert Classic last week – whilst not mind blowing – is certainly a decent place to start.

Key Stats (2018):

• SG: Approach – 15th
• SG: Putting – 40th
• Scoring Average – 40th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Sungjae Im (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 75.6, GPFP: 60.50 Salary: $7,800)

The Korean has shown a fondness for golf on the West Coast, and whether that’s a coincidence or a sign of something more concrete we’ll have to wait and see.

Im finished T4 at the Safeway Open (Napa Valley), T15 at the Shriners (Summerlin) and then T12 at last week’s Desert Classic in La Quinta.

Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised: the 20-year-old won twice on the Web.com Tour last season, with one of those victories coming in Portland, Oregon.

Will Torrey Pines suit his game? We shall have to wait and see, but as an excellent driver (the Korean ranks 17th for Total Driving) who has shown form on Poa Annua there is surely plenty of upside in backing him.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 17th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 34th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 35th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

 

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.89%” bar_text=”3 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”25.97%” bar_text=”20 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”46.75%” bar_text=”36 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”9.09%” bar_text=”1 out of 11 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”9.09%” bar_text=”1 out of 10 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”81.81%” bar_text=”63 out of 77 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram