Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Valero Texas Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Valero Texas Open
2019 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview
This is not a drill: The Masters is just two weeks away!
Last week’s golf felt like an aperitif, whereas this week’s outing at the Texas Open feels like a starter as we wait ravenously for the main course at Augusta National.
It was a Georgian, ironically, who reigned victorious in the WGC-Dell Match Play on Sunday. Kevin Kisner showed all his Bulldog spirit to triumph in a nail-biting encounter with Matt Kuchar to claim the spoils.
Kiz’s metronomic green-hitting abilities were enough to win the day, and such was his form at the Austin Country Club that he has already shrunk in price to take the honors at Augusta next week too.
Elsewhere, Graeme McDowell furthered his chances of appearing in the British Open in his native Northern Ireland by winning the Corales Punta Cana Championship by a single stroke from Chris Stroud and Mackenzie Hughes. The former Ryder Cupper will need to boost his world ranking considerably more to tee up at Royal Portrush, however.
Most of the great and the good of world golf have decided to have the week off and hone their game behind closed doors ahead of an assault on the Green Jacket, but for some other high profile names the test at TPC San Antonio will be the last chance to find some form ahead of the year’s first major.
Matt Kuchar of the United States and Kevin Kisner of the United…
Matt Kuchar of the United States and Kevin Kisner of the United States walk on the 13th hole during the final round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
It was a fantastic week in Austin with our Low-Tier pick Kevin Kisner bringing home the top prize. In case you missed it, here’s what we had to say about Kiz heading into thew WGC:
‘We’ve very happy to see last year’s finalist available at such a throwaway price! That may just make Kisner something of a chalk pick this week, of course, but it’s rare to find a $7,000 pick boasting such obvious credentials.
An event winner in Texas at the Fort Worth Invitational, Kisner has form in the Lone Star State and at Pete Dye track too; particularly Harbour Town, where his lack of length off the tee does not get penalized so readily.
His recent form has been very encouraging too, and aside from the WGC-Mexico Kisner has finished between T22 and T28 in each of his last five starts. That’s form based on the foundation of strong tee-to-green play, and that’s a very handy angle ahead of a match play event.’
On the sleeper side of things, we ran with Kuchar as our 2nd pick on our Sleeper Report. When all was said and done, Kuch and Kiz were the two last men standing.
Kevin Kisner of the United States celebrates with the Walter Hagen…
Kevin Kisner of the United States celebrates with the Walter Hagen Cup after defeating Matt Kuchar of the United States 3&2 during the final round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The 2019 Valero Texas Open Field
It’s at this time of the year that thoughts turn to the artist formerly known as Jordan Spieth, a Texas Open champion who also looked to have cracked the code at Augusta.
It is sad to see him as a shadow of his former self, but who knows perhaps this week’s jaunt to TPC San Antonio can be the start of an upturn in fortunes for the Texan.
The scheduling of this event unfortunately means it is often devoid of big names, but the likes of Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar and Tony Finau up the interest factor somewhat ahead of their Masters efforts.
Lucas Bjerregaard will look to build on his semi-final berth at the WGC Match Play here, while former champions Andrew Landry, Charley Hoffman, Jimmy Walker and Brendan Steele will be looking to repeat the dose in San Antonio.
Jordan Spieth of the United States plays his shot from the 18th tee…
Jordan Spieth of the United States plays his shot from the 18th tee in his match against Bubba Watson of the United States during the third round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
As if to prove how much of a defense the wind is to TPC San Antonio, the relatively breeze-free conditions 12 months ago led to Andrew Landry posting the lowest winning total at the stretch since 2010.
His -17 usurped a couple of -14s in the process, but take a look closer at the history books and you’ll see three winning marks in single digits in the past eight editions.
In short: wind blows, TPC San Antonio plays tough. If it doesn’t, there’s scores to be shot.
Remember when Kevin Na made a 16 on the ninth hole here in 2011? That was a rare occasion when the native rough proved insurmountable, and otherwise the wide-open fairways – as designed by the brains behind the layout, Greg ‘The Shark’ Norman – ensure that there isn’t too much trouble to be found off the tee.
It’s a decent stretch at 7,435 yards for its Par 72, and with many of the downhill winds playing into the wind it feels longer still. Landry, Chappell, Hoffman, who are the last three winners here, are no slouches when it comes to driving distance.
The greens are bermuda but overseeded with bentgrass and poa, and those will run at around 11 on the stimpmeter, so fairly pacey although nothing compared to those of Augusta the following week!
TPC San Antonio features four Par 5s, three of which run at in excess of 590 yards, and a quartet of Par 3s, including the 241-yard beast that is the thirteenth.
A course scenic view of the 18th hole during the final round of the…
A course scenic view of the 18th hole during the final round of the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio – AT&T Oaks course on April 22, 2018 in San Antonio, Texas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for San Antonio, TX
Anyone who had the misfortune to be in Austin on Sunday, when the unseasonable weather left patrons bedecked in bobble hats, overcoats and scarves, will be glad to hear there’s a return to more traditional Texan temperatures this week.
But there’s a rather wet sandwich on the horizon, with Thursday and Friday the dry filling.
Wednesday’s forecast features ‘scattered thunderstorms’, which as we know can mean rain of biblical proportion or, often, just the occasional shower.
That may help to slow conditions for Thursday’s first round, although sunny spells and temperatures of 87°F will help to dry out the surfaces.
Friday looks set to be a cloudier affair, but again there will be warmth in the air at around 84°F.
Then the change comes at the weekend, where some quite prolific rain is forecast on both Saturday and Sunday.
And with winds speeds fairly low at between 7-12 mph, this could be a second low-scoring renewal at TPC San Antonio in as many years.
Last Year’s Results from the Valero Texas Open
With a second round of 65, it looked as though two-time Texas Open winner Zach Johnson was heading for a hat-trick of titles as he gained control of the leaderboard at the halfway stage.
But The Masters and British Open winner was pegged back on Saturday by a couple of young studs in Andrew Landry and Trey Mullinax; the latter posting a week’s best of 62.
Johnson was still the favorite heading into the final round, but he could only muster a 72 to lose all ground on a Sunday of decent scoring.
Mullinax, who birdied six of the opening eleven holes, could only play the final six in +1 and slipped out of contention, while Sean O’Hair’s late rally on home turf wasn’t quite enough.
In the end it was Landry, who birdied the first three holes of the day, who wrestled control of the lead, and the Texan rarely looked back as he carded just a single bogey to claim his first PGA TOUR title.
Highlights | Round 4 | Valero
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 Valero Texas Open, Andrew Landry pulled off the win on the 18th hole after an impressive battle from Trey Mullinax. The Valero Texas Open is played on the AT&T Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, in Texas.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valero Texas Open this Week
It’s all systems go to The Masters, and gamers have just one chance left to build their bankroll ahead of the first major of the year. So let’s act wisely by entering these two bank-building contests.
- Last Shot: PGA $4M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: With one eye on Augusta next week, here we have a chance to bag a ticket to the Fantasy Golf Millionaire contest for just a $3 outlay. There’s 500 tickets up for grabs in this satellite contest too.
- PGA $20k Scramble: Fancy going into battle at The Masters with a bankroll boosted by $50? That’s the prize available in this contest for finishing inside the top 10% of players, with a top payout of $2k in this $20 buy-in game.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valero Texas Open
Landry ranked first for GIR (73.6%) and fourth for Putting Average 12 months ago, and with a combination like that you’re always going to take some stopping.
As is perennially the case at TPC San Antonio, he didn’t do the bulk of his work at the Par 5s as we might normally expect: the hometown boy played the Par 3 and 4s in -12 of his -17 total.
Given the lower wind speeds than we might expect in the Lone Star State, and the possibly softer conditions, we’re expecting a low scoring edition of the Valero Texas Open; as such, perhaps Par 4 Performance might be the key metric this week.
If you hadn’t guessed already, the Texans tend to have their way in this event; whether at this course or elsewhere. There have been countless winners or runners-up finishes from those playing on home soil, and it is a worthwhile angle to explore.
As far as course links are concerned, a few are lightly considered but perhaps El Camaleon, host of the Mayakoba Classic, is the smartest contender. Separated by the Gulf of Mexico, both have a slightly desert-style feel and wind can be a factor. Oh, and both were designed by Greg Norman into the bargain.
It’s only a small sample, but since 2010 Charley Hoffman has won at TPC San Antonio and El Camaleon while John Huh has won at El Camaleon and finished second at San Antonio, with plenty of other good performances at both layouts from a number of others.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Matt Kuchar (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 90.3, GPFP: 115.56 Salary: $11,200)
Having won at the Greg Norman designed Mayakoba earlier in the season, Matt Kuchar would have featured highly on our shortlist even without his run to the final of the WGC-Dell Match Play.
How much stock can we place in match play success? Maybe not much, but at least it shows that Kuch was pounding fairways and making GIR.
He’s got form in Texas too, with top-10s here and in the Houston Open in the past couple of seasons, so any wind that does get up won’t be a concern.
Up until this season there’s no chance that Matt Kuchar could have been regarded as a top tier pick, but he’s found a way to win now and in this sparse field that could be the magic ingredient he needs to add a third title this season.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 1st
- Par 3 Birdie or Better Leaders – 15th
- Total Driving – 18th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Billy Horschel (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 7,100, GPFP: 74.59 Salary: $9,800)
There is a shortage of classy operators in this Valero Texas Open field.
As a former FedExCup champion, we can certainly put Billy Horschel in that category, and he has a habit of saving his best golf for this pat of the country on Bermuda.
He has twice finished third in this event, was T4 in 2016 and T11 in 2018, so there’s plenty of strong form in the ledger, and B-Ho also won the AT&T Byron Nelson in the Lone Star State.
With three finishes in the T16-T26 range within his last four starts, Horschel appears to be on the brink of something very good indeed. Will it come at a course which clearly suits him down to a tee?
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 8th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better Leaders – 8th
- Greens in Regulation – 45th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Sung Kang (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 62.1, GPFP: 49.69 Salary: $7,700)
There’s some nice current form for the Korean to work with this week ahead of a trip to the Lone Star State where he has enjoyed himself in recent times.
With a top-10 at this course to call upon, Kang also booked the biggest payday of his career in 2017 when he finished T2 at the Houston Open.
T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T18 at the tricky Valspar Championship within his last three starts, there’s plenty of form on Bermuda for Kang to call upon this week, and in a state he clearly loves that’s a heady combination.
Key Stats:
- Par 3 Birdie or Better Leaders – 47th
- Scrambling – 53rd
- SG: Approach – 69th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
J.T. Poston (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 67.6, GPFP: 54.11 Salary: $7,400)
A missed cut at the Valspar Championship was a rare blip from Poston these days, and with slightly easier conditions expected in Texas this week he should be able to capitalize on his recent good form.
The 25-year-old had made the weekend in each of his last eight starts prior to the Innisbrook trip, which included useful turns at the Desert Classic (T7), Sony Open (T20) and PLAYERS Championship (T22).
Good early looks at TPC San Antonio (T27 and T30 in last two trips) set the scene for a player comfortable in the Lone Star State who has also played well at Mayakoba in the past too.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 40th
- SG: Putting – 42nd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 65th
Low-Tier Pick:
Kramer Hickok (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 53.4, GPFP: 42.71 Salary: $7,000)
At the moment, Kramer Hickok is best known for being Jordan Spieth’s former roommate and occasional caddie, but he’s working hard to let everyone know that his golf game is pretty handy too.
His T10 at the Corales Punta Cana Championship was his first top-10, and you suspect there might be plenty more to come for this fine young talent.
Born in Austin, schooled at the University of Texas and know living in Dallas, the Lone Star State runs deep through Hickok’s veins, and we’re expecting him to step out of his old buddy’s shadow this week.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 225-250 Yards – 28th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 40th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 66th
Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open
Nick Taylor (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 63.9, GPFP: 62.58 Salary: $7,200)
The Canadian has been trending nicely for a while ow, so it’s time to take the plunge at a layout that clearly suits his eye.
He’s made five consecutive cuts with a best finish of T16 and a worst of T33, so Taylor will be looking to kick on and claim a top-10 outing at the very least this week.
Encouragement comes in the form of top-25s in his last pair of outings at the PLAYERS and the Valspar Championship, where his ball striking stats stacked up well.
With a pair of top-25s here in the last three years, we’re looking for another good effort from Taylor this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 43rd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 64th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 81st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open
Beau Hossler (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 59.3, GPFP: 47.45 Salary: $6,800)
If you’re looking for a sleeper pick and are willing to take a chance, Beau Hossler could be your man.
His form is poor but he loves playing his golf in Texas, and perhaps that will be the spark that returns him to last season’s highs.
Californian born, Hossler studied at the University of Texas and still lives in Austin, and that is reflected in his form in the Lone Star State and on Bermuda overall.
Solo second in the Houston Open, the young buck made the cut in all four PGA TOUR events in the state in his maiden year, and with seven top-20s in 2018 this is a player capable of far outperforming this $6,800 price tag.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 37th
- Birdie Average – 47th
- Greens in Regulation – 75th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
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