Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Wells Fargo Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Wells Fargo Championship

2019 Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview

We are barely two weeks away from the next major: the PGA Championship, which will be played on the iconic Bethpage Black starting on May 16.

All roads lead to NYC then, and there are some players who have work to do on their games as they look to emulate Tiger at Augusta.

Quite what happened to Dustin Johnson heading into the final round of the RBC Heritage last time out is anybody’s guess, but DJ was playing all the wrong notes as he bludgeoned his way around the Harbour Town Links on Sunday.

From a position of overnight leader by one stroke, Johnson fell away with a hapless final round of 77; a reminder of his former fumblings when having one hand on the trophy. Whatever went wrong, he has about two weeks to sort it out.

T. Pan of Taiwan reacts to a shot on the 17th hole during the final…

T. Pan of Taiwan reacts to a shot on the 17th hole during the final round of the 2019 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links on April 21, 2019 in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Opportunity knocks in such situations, and it was left to C.T. Pan, the talented young Taiwanese player, to pick up his first PGA TOUR Title. It’s been a long time coming for the former world number one amateur and Asian Games gold medalist, but it must have tasted sweet nonetheless.

The 27-year-old recovered from an opening round of 71 to slowly crawl his way into contention, and a five-birdie knock of 67 on Sunday was enough for him to take the spoils by one shot from Matt Kuchar and the rest of the field.

PGA Championship prep continues on the east coast this week with the Wells Fargo Championship, ironically played at the host venue of the 2017 PGA Champs: Quail Hollow, in North Carolina.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results 

There were no picks for the Zurich last week due to the lack of DFS slates for the team-play format. Congratulations to Team Rahm/Palmer for the victory out in NOLA.

Jon Rahm of Spain and Ryan Palmer of the United States pose with the…

Jon Rahm of Spain and Ryan Palmer of the United States pose with the trophy after winning during the final round of the Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana on April 28, 2019 in Avondale, Louisiana. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The 2019 Wells Fargo Championship Field

There could be a fantastic shootout this week between the three previous champions at Quail Hollow: Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas.

Rickie Fowler might have something to say about that mind you, as might a strong supporting cast that features the likes of local boy Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Tony Finau and Henrik Stenson.

The scramble for ranking points and prize money continues ahead of the rest of major season, so expect big performances from those on the cusp of the entries for the year’s second major.

Rickie Fowler of the United States plays his shot from the second tee…

Rickie Fowler of the United States plays his shot from the second tee during the final round of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club on April 14, 2019 in Augusta, Georgia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

When you remember that Quail Hollow hosted the 2017 PGA Championship, you understand that this is one of the most revered courses around.

It’s what might be described as a fair test of golf, with scoring neither a piece of cake or a particular grind, and the key defense is its length: 7,560 yards, to be precise.

The man responsible is George Cobb, whose name might be familiar to architectural enthusiasts. Cobb also designed East Lake, home of the TOUR Championship, and the Par 3 course at Augusta National, although his Quail Hollow layout has been tinkered with three times by Tom Fazio, who has lengthened and straightened holes, removed trees and overseen a re-seeding project on the greens which should see them running at a fairly tepid 11 on the stimpmeter.

A general view of the 18th hole during the final round of the 2018…

A general view of the 18th hole during the final round of the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club on May 6, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Like all great courses, Quail Hollow has one of those horrid closing stretches that get potential champions all a-flutter.

The ‘Green Mile’, as it is aptly known, starts with the sixteenth, a steady 506-yard Par 4 that saw 29% of efforts end in bogey last year. That’s not a surprise, as there’s a lot of water lurking beside the green.

Seventeen is essentially an island green Par 3, where the players must carry the ball roughly 200 yards for a safe landing. Is it any wonder that there were more double bogeys here than birdies in 2018!

The curtain falls on eighteen, where a narrow fairway is flanked by bunkers right and a creek left. The approach is uphill into a sloped green, with hazards on all sides of the dancefloor.

Weather Forecast for Charlotte, NC

The lead-up to the first tee is all good for the tournament, with warm, dry spells and temperatures of up to 86°F.

That might ordinarily dry out the greens, but there is rain in the offing. Thursday could well be dry but cloudy, with temperatures of 84°F.

But there’s thunderstorms expected on Friday and wind speeds of up to 12 mph, and that could be the funkiest day of the week.

The weekend has ‘showers’ in the forecast, which could of course mean anything in reality, with temperatures of around 78°F and steady winds of around 8 mph.

Last Year’s Results from the Wells Fargo Championship

It took roughly 45 holes for the eventual champion, Jason Day, to assert his authority on the 2018 edition of this event.

He was one stroke adrift of the halfway leader, Peter Malnati, but the Aussie kicked up through the gears on Saturday and posted a round of 68 to carry a two-shot cushion into the final round.

Sunday was a real grind with high winds buffeting the players, and a score of anything under par was a real achievement. Thus, Day’s 69 was enough to hold off the challenge of Nick Watney and Aaron Wise, who finished two shots shy on -10.

Highlights | Round 4 | Wells Fargo

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship, Jason Day wowed the crowd in his Green Mile performance to seal the win, but Aaron Wise made his presence known as he carded 10-under 68 to tie for second.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Wells Fargo Championship this Week

It’s nice to have DraftKings action back after a brief hiatus last week. With that said, here are the contests to keep your eye on:

• PGA $400K DRIVE THE GREEN [$100K TO 1ST]:  Certainly not a bad place to start for DFS action. This 95,000 (max) player contest features $400,000 in total prizes and pays out the top 20720 finishing positions. First place here will win a cool $100,000, which is the highest prize this week for DFS golf action. Only $5 bucks to enter, so if you’re feeling a play with multiple rosters, this could be your game.

• PGA $300K Club Twirl [$50K to 1st]: If smaller DFS fields is what you crave, this $44 dollar entry could be the game for you. This 7951-player contest features $300,000 in total prizes and pays out the top 1824 finishing positions. First place takes home a cool $50k.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Wells Fargo Championship

Day, Thomas, McIlroy, Holmes….these are all players blessed with prodigious length off the tee, and they also happen to be some of the most recent champions at Quail Hollow.

Driving Distance is a key factor here, and it just goes to show that Day – who ranked fourteenth for that metric – whacked the ball an average of 325.7 yards off the tee.

Accuracy isn’t too much to worry about with minimal rough and a large number of trees removed from the fairways, and indeed the best approach appears to be getting the ball as far down the track as possible before scrambling into the Bermuda greens.

One interesting titbit is that players native to the eastern corridor of the US, or those who have spent plenty of time here, tend to thrive. Day and McIlroy have lived in Florida for a number of years while Justin Thomas and JB Holmes are both from Kentucky; as is another former winner, Joey Sindelar.

Throw into the mix a South Carolinan (Lucas Glover), a Texan (Sean O’Hair), a Louisianan (David Toms) and a Floridian (Rickie Fowler), and there appears to be plenty of worth in drafting those who have east coast experience or are comfortable in this part of the world.

If you’re looking for course links, there does appear to be incestuous links between three events: this one, the TOUR Championship and the Wyndham Championship. George Cobb designed both Quail Hollow and East Lake, so that link is no surprise, while the Wyndham is played in North Carolina. There are far too many players who have performed well at each, so you’ll just have to take our word for it!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

Top Tier Pick #1:  

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 6/1, FPPG: 96.5, GPFP: 120.63 Salary: $11,800)

Rory has been in outstanding form this season, and we’re willing to overlook his slight aberration in the Masters and suggest he rebounds straight back to form rather forcefully here.

The pressure to win the green jacket – and complete the career grand slam – is obviously all-encompassing for the Irishman, and perhaps given all of the outside factors a T21 finish at Augusta was decent going.

That certainly continues his good record this term. He banked five top-10s in a row from the Tournament of Champions to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and made that count when winning THE PLAYERS Championship in his next start.

His Augusta effort and a last 16 spot at the WGC-Match Play brings us up to date, and so confidence will be high ahead of a trip to a layout where he has won twice before.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
• SG: Approach – 12th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 24th

Top-Tier Pick #2:  

Webb Simpson (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 77.2, GPFP: 81.78 Salary: $9,700)

We’ve been firmly on the Webb Simpson train for a number of weeks, and it’s an enjoyable ride when he’s in this kind of form.

There have been seven top-20 finishes in his last ten strokeplay starts, a run which includes a trio of top-10s including a T5 at the Masters.

It’s a consistently strong trend that suggests a win could be around the corner for the former US Open champion, and playing at a track this week where he is a former runner-up bodes well.

The North Carolinan also finished T4 at the TOUR Championship at the tailend of the 2018 season, and that is another tick in the box for one of the most underrated players around.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 3rd
• SG: Around-the-Green – 11th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Henrik Stenson (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 51.8, GPFP: 41.42 Salary: $8,900)

The Swede has set up home in Orlando, and it’s perhaps no coincidence that some of his finest days on the PGA TOUR have come over on the east of the country.

He’s won the PLAYERS Championship in Florida and the TOUR Championship at George Cobb’s East Lake in Atlanta, and also picked up a victory at the Wyndham Championship – which just happens to be played in North Carolina.

Stenson’s form continues to flip between good and otherwise, but anyone who witnessed his 67 on the Saturday at Augusta will know that this is a player not too far from finding his best.

When he does, we’ll have a proven champion on board at a snip of a price.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 3rd
• Total Driving – 25th
• Scrambling – 44th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

J.T. Poston (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 67.7, GPFP: 54.18 Salary: $7,500)

The in-form ‘Postman’ will be returning to North Carolina this week, and we’ve seen a number of local boys perform well on their own patch.

The likes of Raymond Floyd, Webb Simpson and David Love III all won on home soil during their careers, and while it would be ridiculous to suggest that Poston is on their level, he is at least showing plenty of signs of progress.

He’s made ten of his last eleven cuts, and the best performance of the bunch came last time out at the RBC Heritage, where he finished 67-66 to share sixth place.

A strong scrambler and putter, if Poston can ally his skillset with the fact he was phenomenal from tee-to-green at Harbour Town then we can expect big things from him this week.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 19th
• SG: Putting – 48th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 51st

Low-Tier Pick: 

Chesson Hadley (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 54.1, GPFP: 43.30 Salary: $7,000)

A dismal run of form – MC-MC-65-MC – sees Hadley completely written off this week, but a return to North Carolina might just be the spark he needs to find his best game.

This Quail Hollow track clearly suits his eye given that the wold number 88 has delivered a trio of top-20s here in as many visits, and while we’re not keen on getting pulled along on the course form train Hadley is a player of some skill.

Besides, you don’t have to rewind too far to see top-20s at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Honda Classic or the Phoenix Open, so he’s hardly a hopeless case. Indeed, on Bermuda layouts on the east coast, Hadley tends to bring his best.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 16th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 53rd
• Total Driving – 68th

Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship

Rory Sabbatini (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 64.0, GPFP: 55.65 Salary: $7,700)

The switch to representing Slovakia from his native South Africa seems to have done wonders for Rory Sabbatini’s game.

He has made six consecutive cuts, and the highlight of that run came at the RBC Heritage last time out where he recorded a T10 finish.

That consistency marks him out as a value sleeper this week, particularly as he has played some strong golf at Quail Hollow in the past: T8 in 2014 being his best effort.

Sabbatini particularly specializes in taking Par 5s apart, and if conditions are clam this week he should create plenty of birdie opportunities.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 45th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 48th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 62nd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship

Danny Lee (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 64.5, GPFP: 69.62 Salary: $7,300)

The Kiwi is an above-average talent with a PGA TOUR title to his name, and from time to time he turns up at courses he enjoys.

Let’s rewind back to his T7 at THE PLAYERS Championship last season – he’s a confirmed Pete Dye enthusiast, and work forward from there through top-10s at the Mayakoba Golf Classic (solo second), T6 at the Canadian Open and T7 at the Texas Open.

He’s a player with the ability to outperform his salary expectations when conditions suit, and we expect they will at Quail Hollow: he has a T9 and T13 finish to his name at this layout, and was also once a runner-up at East Lake too.

If you’re looking for a low-owned sleeper, Lee could be the man this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 28th
• Driving Distance – 44th
• SG: Approach – 52nd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.57%” bar_text=”6 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.61%” bar_text=”38 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”36.90%” bar_text=”62 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”12.50%” bar_text=”3 out of 24 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”8.33%” bar_text=”2 out of 24 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”77.38%” bar_text=”130 out of 168 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Wells Fargo Championship with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram