Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The Northern Trust
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Northern Trust
2019 Northern Trust Fantasy Preview
This sport of ours never ceases to amaze.
J.T. Poston went into the Wyndham Championship with five missed cuts and finishes of T60, T52, T29 and T11, and yet he created a slice of unique history in claiming his first ever professional win.
The 26-year-old became the first player to go bogey-free for 72 holes and win on Tour since Lee Trevino in 1974 – an astonishing record, and even more astonishing that a player of Poston’s means would break it.
And we’re not being harsh in that: it’s just that Poston hadn’t previously finished any higher than T4 on the PGA TOUR in 77 career starts.
Either way, he’s forced his way into the season’s traditional curtain call: the FedExCup playoffs.
Reduced to just three events this year, the action kicks off with the Northern Trust at a new(ish) layout, the Liberty National in New Jersey.
Only the top 70 will press on to the BMW Championship, so who will make the grade?
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
We chose Webb Simpson as our Top Tier pick last week as he fell by 1-stroke to J.T. Poston, finishing in solo 2nd. Although a great showing having Webb, Billy Ho (T6), and Im (T6), Poston would have been the missing link to rolling in all that cash!
Now we head into the playoffs with 5 winners picked this year, 4 runner-ups and a 74.81% cuts-made ratio (picking 7 players per week).
Time to get hot…
The 2019 Northern Trust Field
As you can probably imagine, a number of golf’s key protagonists will be looking to pick up a hefty wad of FedExCup points this week.
Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson take central billing, as they do anywhere they go, and they are joined by a healthy percentage of the world’s top 50 players.
The defending FedEx champion, Justin Rose, heads to New Jersey, as do the likes of Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele and Gary Woodland, who are all in touching distance of the number one spot this time around.
Bryson DeChambeau will look to defend his title, albeit at a different venue, while Liberty National member Phil Mickelson will be looking to make the most of home comforts after a rough few months.
This Week’s Course Preview
The host of this event in 2009 and 2013 when it was known as the Barclays, Liberty National is back on the PGA TOUR after a lengthy hiatus.
Built on a landfill site in Jersey City, this is a stunning piece of real estate that offers the most extraordinary views of a number of landmarks. The fourth hole plays out against the backdrop of the Manhattan skyline, while the thirteenth green has the Statue of Liberty poised ominously in the background. Those, and views of the Hudson River, make Liberty National one of the most unique courses around.
But how does the track actually play? Well, at 7,353 yards for its Par 71, this is a long old stretch by all accounts with some lengthy Par 4s to navigate. But there are some major contours too, and that leads to many of the longer holes playing downhill.
There’s an absence of thick foliage or trees, which leaves Liberty National with a wide open, exposed feel. There are lots of slopes, while significant lakes and ponds line the fairways of eight holes.
This Tom Kite design underwent some hefty changes prior to the 2013 Barclays, with the Bentgrass greens extended and made ‘more receptive’ with contours flattened and run-off areas removed. A strip of intermediate rough was added too – before, it was fairway then fescue with NOTHING in-between, making this an all-or-nothing layout off the tee.
Back then, the winning score was -11. We’d expect that to creep up a few points this week, however.
Weather Forecast for Jersey City, NJ
Other than some thundery rainfall expected on Wednesday, the week looks set up perfectly for top-level golf.
How the ‘scattered thunderstorms’ pan out is anybody’s guess, but Thursday should dawn bright and sunny with 87°F temperatures.
Friday and the weekend should follow a similar pattern, with lots of sunshine and the mercury hitting 84°F.
Will the wind be a factor? It’s possible, with speeds predicted of up to 11 mph. As we know, these can be more prominent at the local level.
Last Year’s Results from the Northern Trust
Bryson DeChambeau maintained the incredible start to his young career by lifting the first of what could be many FedExCup playoff wins 12 months ago.
At the Ridgewood Country Club in Paramus, New Jersey, the flat-capped phenom broke the back of his charge to the title during the middle 36 holes, firing rounds of 66 and 63 across Friday and Saturday to build an imposing four-shot lead heading into the final round.
Keegan Bradley, who would go on to win at the BMW Championship two weeks later, was hanging around in second place before a disastrous Sunday round of 78 put paid to his chances.
Instead, it was Bryson who finished strong, going through the motions with -2 on the back nine to win by four from Tony Finau. At the time, it was his third PGA TOUR title….but he would go on to win the Dell Technologies Championship just a week later!
Highlights | Round 4 | THE NORTHERN TRUST 2018
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of THE NORTHERN TRUST 2018, Bryson DeChambeau kept his lead and carded an 18-under 266 to earn his second win of the season by four shots. THE NORTHERN TRUST will be contested at Ridgewood Country Club.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Northern Trust this Week
The DFS sites are starting to get their tanks on the lawn as far as their slates for the FedExCup finale are concerned, and the ante is raised somewhat with their efforts this week too.
- PGA $800k Drive the Green: The prize pool for this contest has gone up a sweet $150k in just a year, and as well as the $200k available to the winner there’s plenty of cash consolation prizes as well as tickets to next week’s $1M Mini Main Event.
- PGA $50k Albatross: Gamers who do their research tend to have the best of things in single entry contests, and that advantage is heightened when we have a new course to attack. So why not make the most of your edge in this $12 affair?
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Northern Trust
Having been in the wilderness for six years, we could all use a refresher on Liberty National.
Take a look at the leaderboard for the 2013 Barclays, for starters. What do you notice: it’s populated almost exclusively by flushers. Scott, Rose, Woodland, Woods, Furyk, Fowler, peak Watney.
In short, we expect the very best tee-to-green merchants to thrive this week.
Back in 2013, Liberty National was ranked the 22nd most difficult course on the rotation, with a monumental 170 double bogeys and 24 triples or worse. The winning score crept into double digits under par, with the cut at +1. So the players are not in for a jolly this week.
That’s because there is more than one primary defense. Those big lakes are in play on ten holes, there are 90 bunkers on the premises and the greens are heavily sloping and quick too.
The wind could be a factor too, and the only consolation prize is that the wind should be a factor but not round-damaging in strength.
There really will be a premium on precise approaches this week, and you will see plenty of thought into which section of the greens the players want to hit their irons into.
And, reversing a step, you don’t want to be missing the fairway or the first cut off the tee – the Kentucky Bluegrass rough is not pleasant at all.
So it’s all about the best ball-strikers this week, because the hot putters will struggle to get close if their approaches aren’t in the right spot. That is our key angle of attack….
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Northern Trust
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Northern Trust
Top Tier Pick #1:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 87.5, GPFP: 105.91 Salary: $11,400)
In the anticipated fashion, Rory bounced back from his British Open disappointment with an excellent performance at the WGC St Jude Invitational.
Okay, so it didn’t work out for him on the Sunday, but to get into contention in the first place so quickly after his deflating effort in Northern Ireland is testament to his strength of character.
Fundamentally, his game is in excellent shape, and we can even put that first round at Portrush down to the pressure of performing in front of his passionate home fans.
Otherwise, it’s all good with five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, including two majors (the US Open and the PGA Championship) and victory at the Canadian Open.
If he is on point off the tee, as we expect him to be, then he will give himself a fantastic opportunity to attack these tiered greens from the best possible angles.
All in all, we would expect the player that ranks first on Tour for Scoring Average – and with the bit between his teeth – to tough out a winning score here.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
- Scoring Average – 1st
- SG: Approach – 12th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Xander Schauffele (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 79.9, GPFP: 63.89 Salary: $8,900)
The inventive short game of Xander Schauffele could certainly pay dividends at a track like Liberty National.
We always prefer the 25-year-old at less-than-driver courses where the big stick is left in the bag more often than not, because then his arrow-straight approach game can shine.
When he does miss the green, Schauffele just happens to be one of the best pitch-and-putt merchants in the business, and it’s a recipe that could yield success at this layout.
With a WGC win and a TOUR Championship victory to his name already, the world number eleven – who sits fourth in the FedExCup standings – certainly has the big-game pedigree we’re looking for.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 16th
- SG: Putting – 30th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 36th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Louis Oosthuizen (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 73.8, GPFP: 59.00 Salary: $7,900)
It’s not a huge leap of faith to describe the South African as one of the classiest operators around, as proven by three top-30 finishes this season.
T7 at Pebble Beach and T20 at Royal Portrush show his comfort for playing on wide open real estate, and a career spent largely playing in South African and on the European Tour ensures that Oosthuizen is at home on Bentgrass greens.
Wind also won’t be a concern for him, so could Oosthuizen finally win his first title on US soil here?
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 5th
- Total Driving – 11th
- Scoring Average – 30th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 62.9, GPFP: 50.32 Salary: $7,500)
We’ve been here before, but the switch to Bentgrass always brings the Chilean to mind.
Save for an aberration at the British Open – funnily enough, there aren’t many Links courses in Chile for Niemann to practice on – his formline reads 13-10-23-5-5, which suggest he is starting to match consistency to the undoubted talent he displays.
Strong off the tee (31st for Total Driving) and excellent on Approach (28th), once that putter warms up he will surely be a danger to everyone – hints at which he showed last time out by gaining a whopping +2.18 in the fourth round at Sedgefield.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 15th
- SG: Approach – 28th
- Total Driving – 31st
Low-Tier Pick:
Graeme McDowell (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 62.8, GPFP: 50.21 Salary: $6,800)
It’s tests of golf like these, where an imaginative short game can come to the fore, where players like Graeme McDowell spring to mind.
Now that the distraction of the British Open has gone, GMac can enjoy a ‘free hit’ in the FedExCup series, and there have been hints of some of his best golf returning this year.
There have been lots of positive results, and you suspect the Irishman will enjoy the wide-open and exposed look and feel of Liberty National. It might even remind him of home!
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 3rd
- Scoring Average – 31st
- Scrambling – 47th
Sleeper Pick for the Northern Trust
Rory Sabbatini (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 70.5, GPFP: 63.45 Salary: $7,700)
In his last ten starts, Sabbatini has delivered five top-10 finishes, two other top-20s and just one missed cut.
It’s the kind of consistency, which has followed him across state lines and timezones, that will surely result in at least a sniff of a tournament win sooner or later.
It wasn’t all that long ago that the South African turned Slovakian was a semi-prolific winner on the PGA TOUR, so if he can get into contention then at least we know he has the fortitude to take care of business.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 24th
- Scoring Average – 33rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 44th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Northern Trust
Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 59.5, GPFP: 47.58 Salary: $7,500)
There’s a reason why some players thrive on the Links and in the desert.
Maybe it’s because they aren’t the best of drivers, but are comfortable scrambling from long fescue rough, maybe it’s because they are comfy in the wind or maybe it’s because they chip well back onto rock hard greens.
Either way, Tyrrell Hatton boasts an excellent record in these conditions. A two-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, the Englishman has also finished inside the top-three in the Scottish Open, in Dubai and even in the WGC Mexico.
The bottom line? He prefers wide open, exposed tracks where the wind blows. Which sounds a lot like Liberty National, of course….
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 8th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 37th
- Scoring Average – 48th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
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