Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Waste Management Phoenix Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
The Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview
In our sleeper report for the Farmers Insurance Open last week, we tipped Marc Leishman backed by the words ‘…Leishman is routinely a hot flat stick away from becoming one of the best players in the world.’
We don’t write that here for any bragging rights or ego-boosting, simply to act as a reminder of a basic fact of golf: in the end, brilliant ball-strikers will ultimately find a way to get it done.
So what was the reason for such hubris? Simply put, Leishman is a tee-to-green machine who lacks confidence with the putter.
But when he’s hot, boy can the Aussie make some big ones, and he gained a whopping +4.78 strokes on the field on Sunday at Torrey Pines to finally claim a title that has eluded him for so long, keeping at bay both Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy – their final rounds started in disarray, leaving them far too much ground to make up.
Incidentally, that’s two Aussie winners on the PGA TOUR since the bushfires that ravaged the country, while Lucas Herbert won on the European Tour last week as well.
As savvy DFS gamers and bettors, we have to ask if that’s a coincidence or a narrative that needs exploring further.
Intriguingly, the whole approach of backing tee-to-green merchants to get hot with the putter should also come to the fore this week at TPC Scottsdale, home of the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
This really is one of the most unique environments that the sport has to offer, and with the best generally rising to the top here we can expect another week of outstanding golf to enjoy.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Not a bad week for us with Leishman (WINNER) on our Sleeper Report and Rahm (2nd) as one of our top picks. We liked Leishman coming in and even mentioned that although we weren’t entirely sold on his putting, we liked the area of his game enough to slot him in on this particular course.
In case you missed it, here’s what we had to say about Liesh heading into last week:
One of the most pathologically poor putters at the top end of golf. His tee-to-green game is in fine fettle at the moment, so that’s half of the battle, and we can only assume he enjoys the putting surfaces at Torrey Pines given his fine performances here (four top-10s, including a pair of T2 finishes).
The Australian flushed it at the Sony Open a couple of weeks ago, and as a four-time winner on the PGA TOUR he is clearly somebody who can putt well when on a roll – can he bring the magic this week?
The magic definitely appeared, as Leishman came out and fired a 68-65 on the weekend to close the door on our Top-Tier Pick, John Rahm, who still managed to dominate in fantasy points this week with his 19 birdies and 2 eagles.
The Waste Management Phoenix Open Field
There really is a strong field that will tee it up at TPC Scottsdale this week.
Many bettors and gamers will be trying to decide whether to support Justin Thomas or Jon Rahm in Arizona, while the likes of Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar make for an interesting second rung.
There’s former champions galore in Hideki Matsuyama, Gary Woodland and Rickie Fowler, who will defend his title this week, while Bryson DeChambeau returns to US soil after getting a slow play violation on the European Tour last time out.
The likes of Bubba Watson, Brandt Snedeker and Charley Hoffman all seemed to find some form last time out too, which all adds up to an intriguing bill in Phoenix.
This Week’s Course Preview
If TPC Scottsdale was a comic book character, it would almost certainly be Two-Face from the Batman franchise.
That’s because the front nine – and the first 14 holes all told – play out in pretty benign fashion, with average width fairways and smooth Bermuda greens scarcely protected by any hazards of note.
But the we hit the fifteenth and, well, this is where things get interesting. This is a reachable Par 5 that offers the classic ‘risk and reward’ conundrum, with a water hazard flaking the entire left-hand side of the hole from tee box to green.
And then we have the sixteenth, the ‘Colosseum’ as it is known, which is a rather intense amphitheater where the players are surrounded by grandstands packed with the kind of patrons you’d expect at a rock concert rather than a golf tournament.
The seventeenth is a drivable Par 4, although watch out for the sand and water left and right, while the eighteenth is a knee-knocker too: will you lay up and take par, or attack the green despite the trouble that lurks all around?
This 7,266 yard, Par 71 course offers one of the most electrifying closing stretches of a golf course anywhere in the world, so we can thank designers Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris for that!
Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ
Normally we associate desert golf with hot temperatures and high winds. Ironically, the early forecast suggests we’re not in for either this week!
The mercury is set to top out at around 77°F but the average will be closer to 71°F, while the wind speeds will struggle to top 8 mph according to the early forecast.
With the sun out, there’s nothing much for the players to fear, although it’s worth remembering that it can be very cold in the mornings here until the sun is up completely – if you like to play the round-by-round DFS games, that is something to consider.
Last Year’s Results for the WM Phoenix Open
Rickie Fowler highlights | Round 4 | Waste Management 2019
In the final round of the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open, Rickie Fowler carded a 3-over 74 but managed to hold on for a two-stroke victory at 17-under for the tournament. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh The Waste Management Phoenix Open is the Greatest Show on Grass.
Finally, for him at last, Rickie Fowler was able to get over the line in the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
In the past he’s lost in a playoff, finished solo second by a single stroke and also recorded a T4 return at Scottsdale, so he must have been wondering whether his time would ever come here.
When he opened up with a 64 last year, Rickie would have been looking to put an end to that horrendous run, and he followed up with a 65 too to consolidate a handsome halfway lead.
A third round of -7 should have sealed the deal – Rickie was by now four clear of Matt Kuchar and the chasing pack, but you just know some demons must have been in his mind given his heartache at Scottsdale in the past.
And you could have forgiven Fowler for thinking that the golfing gods were conspiring against him once more in a bizarre twist on the eleventh. He hit his approach into the water, and after taking a drop his ball then rolled back into the water – another penalty shot, according to the rules.
However, Rickie rallied to finally enjoy Phoenix glory and to end a two-year wait for a PGA TOUR title anywhere.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Waste Management Phoenix Open this Week
A seriously good field, and a seriously good golf course, means that gamers can enjoy a seriously good slate of contests this week – here’s just two examples.
- PGA $500k Drive the Green: With no set profile for a prospective Phoenix Open champion (more on that shortly), it might take a couple of line-ups to get it right this week. So maximise your chances with this $5 multi-entry contest, where the winner lands a rather cool $100k.
- PGA $300k Club Twirl: On a similar theme but for slightly higher rollers, this multi-entry contest is $44 a hit but promises stacks of big bucks payouts: the winner nets a handy $50k!
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
This is one of those annoying weeks where there is no cut-and-shut profile of a winner….apart from playing excellent golf, that is.
However, if we look at the identities of the last four champions at TPC Scottsdale – Fowler, Gary Woodland, Hideki Matsuyama (x2) and Brooks Koepka – obvious comparisons can be drawn.
They are all outstanding golfers, for one thing, whose strength undoubtedly comes from tee-to-green. Maybe they are better placed to thrive on the pressure-packed last four holes, too.
Like Leishman last week, flushing the ball is one thing but making putts quite another, and the ideal recipe is somebody who combines both at TPC Scottsdale.
Given the scoreable nature of some of the holes here, especially those that can be driven under regulation, there is a clamor for long hitters but remember: Scottsdale plays at altitude, albeit a small one, so even shorter drivers get a bit of a boost.
There is a narrative we come back to year-after-year when shortlisting players for the Phoenix Open: the incredible correlation between this event, the Memorial and the Honda Classic.
This was strengthened last year by Fowler, who has now won here and the Honda, while finishing second in the Memorial.
And then there’s Woodland (winner here and T2 Honda), Matsuyama (won both Phoenix and the Memorial), Kyle Stanley (winner here and T2 at Memorial), Jason Dufner (winner of the Memorial and T2 here) and Ryan Palmer (T2 here and at the Honda).
Some narratives in golf are pure coincidence, but this one seems to have plenty of substance about it.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Top Tier Pick:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 9/1, FPPG: 93.6, GPFP: 121.65 Salary: $11,200)
If shortlisting golfers is a box-ticking exercise, then Justin Thomas just gets the nod ahead of Jon Rahm this week.
Quite what happened to the Spaniard on Sunday remains to be seen, but every department of his game was in shoddy order as he went +4 through his opening five holes.
It’s that inconsistency that just gives JT the nod here, especially as this is a player who has the perfect game for TPC Scottsdale.
A winner of the Honda Classic, Thomas is a tee-to-green machine who also happens to be one of the most prolific champions on the planet.
T3 here a year ago, JT will be looking to go two better than that this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 3rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 4th
- Greens in Regulation – 8th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 72.3, GPFP: 57.80 Salary: $9,100)
When we were drawing up our shortlist for our Phoenix Open picks, Collin Morikawa was the player we *expected* to draft as our second top-tier pick.
But then DraftKings released their salaries, and we were gobsmacked to see Bryson DeChambeau available at $9,100.
The former Memorial Tournament winner was last in action in the desert of Dubai last week, and he was well on course to win out there before the wind got up to 25mph and his concentration lapsed when given a slow play warning.
But it was a return to form for the newly-buff shot-maker, who finished T5 in his sole visit to TPC Scottsdale two years ago.
He’ll get a rough ride on sixteenth, that’s for sure, but Bryson is a better player than many above him in the salary listings this week.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 9th
- SG: Putting – 16th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Corey Conners (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 75.1, GPFP: NA Salary: $7,900)
In our columns we have made some rather bold proclamations about Corey Conners, who we see as a major winner in waiting.
He will need to iron out some flaws in his game, but the Canadian is an outstanding ball-striker who continues to attract interest at layouts such as TPC Scottsdale.
With six top-25 finishes in seven starts this season, Conners has got plenty of form in the bag, and arguably he saved his best for last: a round of 66 on the Sunday at Waialae when it was blowing a gale.
When straight hitting really becomes a premium Conners tends to shine, and he can do so again in Arizona this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 14th
- SG: Approach – 30th
- Scoring Average – 36th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Tom Hoge (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 63.2, GPFP: 50.54 Salary: $7,400)
The revelatory form of Tom Hoge continues.
Not only has he finished solo fifth at the Farmers Insurance Open and T6 at the American Express, Hoge has done it in such impressive tee-to-green fashion that this formline really is sustainable.
You can also throw in solo second at the Greenbrier and T12 at the Sony Open for good measure, and with his ball-striking at an outstanding level there’s no reason that TPC Scottsdale won’t suit Hoge down to a tee.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 19th
- Scoring Average – 23rd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 25th
Low-Tier Pick:
Harry Higgs (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 68.2, GPFP: 54.54 Salary: $6,900)
Some Korn Ferry Tour graduates blast their way onto the main tour, while others adopt a more softly, softly approach.
Harry Higgs is in the latter camp, but he is really starting to catch the eye with some classy performances.
T19 on debut at the Greenbrier, Higgs could and possibly should have won the Bermuda Championship a few weeks later.
But his best start yet surely came at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he delivered a sublime tee-to-green performance on his first look at Torrey Pines to finish T9.
This is a young guy who appears to have a bright future, so let’s get him on board while we still can at such an agreeable price.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 16th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 27th
- Scoring Average – 35th
Sleeper Pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Adam Hadwin (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 83.6, GPFP: 84.44 Salary: $7,200)
This is one of those picks that comes from the odds as much as anything.
That said, Adam Hadwin has two things going for him: he’s a supreme flusher of a golf ball, and he’s just become a father – maybe the much-hyped ‘nappy factor’ will come into play for the Canadian!
A resident of Scottsdale, Hadwin will also benefit from good memories here having finished T1 and T17 in two of his last four visits.
He’s enjoyed plenty of time away while on nappy-changing duty, but TPC Scottsdale suits Hadwin’s game to a fault.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th
- SG: Putting – 26th
- Scoring Average – 31st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Sam Burns (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 51.0, GPFP: 40.80 Salary: $6,800)
There are many shrewd judges who believe that Sam Burns can make a breakthrough on the PGA TOUR this year.
The 23-year-old has shown glimpses of excellent golf, not least in his T6 at the American Express a couple of weeks ago.
He found Torrey Pines a bit more taxing last week, but still returned an okay T49 return, and on a more forgiving golf course like TPC Scottsdale he should be able to shine once again.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 48th
- SG: Putting – 56th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 76th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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