Gambling on the Greens: WGC Mexico Championship Sportsbook Round-Up

Alright, it’s another edition of Gambling on the Greens, this time at Club de Golf Chapultepec for the WGC Mexico Championship. This is the course that defending champion Dustin Johnson famously had a 369 yard drive that set him up for a short eagle putt in 2019.

Last week at Riviera, the futures didn’t fare too well with both Bubba Watson and Tony Finau disappointing, but the tournament and round matchups went a combined 4-1, which makes for the first of many positive weeks. Once again, the 2nd through 4th round matchup picks can be found @thepinhighpod on instagram and twitter, so give those two a follow, and tune into the Pin High Podcast if you are also a DFS degenerate like the rest of us. On that note, let’s get into this week’s action.

WGC Mexico Championship- To Win:

Once again, I’m not going to pick the two favorites to win because any joe schmo on the internet can tell you to pick Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy. As we mentioned on the podcast, SG: Approach is going to be a big stat this week. When you can get a guy who ranks first in that, along with 1st in SG: Total, 3rd in SG: Tee-to-green, and 4th in SG: Putting, you have to take them, especially with odds at 15/1 (+1500). The mystery man? Webb Simpson.

The Pick: Webb Simpson +1500

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WGC Mexico Championship- To Finish Top 10

While I did say that I wasn’t going to give you a favorite to win, it’s hard not to give you Dustin Johnson to finish in the top 10, even if it is at -150. He’s been playing far too well, and this course suits him far too much to not pick him, even at these odds.

The Pick: Dustin Johnson -150

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WGC Mexico Championship- Tournament Matchups

Last week, the two tournament matchups went undefeated pretty easily thanks to Jordan Spieth and Adam Hadwin. For the first pick, we’re riding a hot hand with Hideki Matsuyama (-115) over Tommy Fleetwood, who is making his first start on the PGA Tour since early November. Matsuyama has an excellent approach and tee-to-green, and I think he takes this one easily.

The Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (-115) over Tommy Fleetwood

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I’m very confident in this second one and it is one of those matchups that I think we can exploit. Byeong Hun An is matched up against Billy Horschel and the stats for this course sway heavily in An’s favor.

The Pick: Byeong Hun An (-130) over Billy Horschel

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WGC Mexico Championship- Round 1 Matchups

The first pick here is a pretty obvious one to me. I love Marc Leishman’s ball striking ability in this tournament, and I think we can make some money off him round-to-round. First Round victim? Shane Lowry.

The Pick: Marc Leishman (-120) over Shane Lowry

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Finally, the second pick will be a guy who loves WGC events and finished 3rd in the last one: Louis Oosithuizen. He’ll clean up Paul Casey in round 1 nice and easy.

The Pick: Louis Oosthuizen (-115) over Paul Casey

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I’m not sure what books have this one, but if you’re looking for an easy one, it might just be Bernd Weisberger as the Top Austrian Finisher in the field at -120 as there’s only two in the field. Other than that, that’s all I’ve got, good luck to everyone and here’s to another positive week of Gambling on the Greens.

Cover Image Via Twitter