Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
The Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview
Hot on the heels of a maiden PGA TOUR win for Viktor Hovland at the Puerto Rico open a few weeks ago, it looked likely for most of the weekend at the Honda Classic that another new inductee to the debut winner’s club was likely.
Tommy Fleetwood, the prodigiously talented Englishman, led at the 54-hole stage and looked decent value for his lead too.
But as is often the case, getting the job done was not as easy as it sounds and he ran into plenty of trouble in converting despite birdieing his opening two holes.
The title challenges of Brendan Steele and Mackenzie Hughes also ran into trouble, and in the end it was left to a young man who made the fewest mistakes – Sungjae Im – to etch his name onto a PGA TOUR trophy for the first time.
A long time coming, perhaps, the switch to the east coast should pay dividends for the Bermuda loving Korean, and one of the hardest working pros around has finally got the reward his obvious talent deserves.
The Florida Swing is well now underway, and while some will be licking their lips ahead of the ‘fifth major’ – THE PLAYERS Championship – next week, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is a fantastic appetizer.
Named after the seven-time major champion, Arnie was the brains behind the host course, Bay Hill Country Club, a labor of live which he tinkered with continually since he purchased the real estate in 1976.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Oh, so close Tommy, so close.
Our top guy last week was Tommy Fleetwood, who shattered our hearts with one strike of a 3-wood on the 72nd hole Sunday. Fleetwood was one stroke back to Im, and all Fleetwood needed was to birdie 18 to force a playoff; something he could have probably easily done if he took the conservative path.
Regardless, he earned us some solid fantasy points but either way, Sunjae Im was the guy to have last week!
The Arnold Palmer Invitational Field
There’s a slew of former Arnold Palmer Invitational champions in the field, and headlining is the 2018 winner, Rory McIlroy.
Francesco Molinari, the defending champion, will defend his honor alongside former winners of this event in Jason Day, Marc Leishman and, erm, Matt Every, while Patrick Reed and Adam Scott will be looking to build on recent PGA TOUR wins.
The likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele will be looking to build some form ahead of THE PLAYERS and the Masters, which isn’t all that far on the horizon, while European Tour stars such as Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick – who led this event at times 12 months ago – will be looking to get off the mark on US soil.
This Week’s Course Preview
There has been a lot of talk recently about the over-powering of modern golf courses, but layouts like Bay Hill – crafted by a multiple-time major champion – test a lot more than simply how far a player can hit the ball.
It just goes to show that ‘old’ courses – Bay Hill was originally built in 1960 – can stand the test of time regardless of what driver technology is introduced.
This track has hosted this flagship PGA TOUR event for more than four decades, and while it has seen changes in that time the underlying emphasis remains on quality ball-striking to this day.
In 2014, some fairways were widened and trees removed, which helped to ease the test somewhat, but like may golf courses in Florida the complexity is typically determined by how strong the wind blows.
That’s because the Par 72, 7,419 yard layout has plenty of challenges waiting to gobble up errant tee shots. Many of the fairways are doglegging and tree-lined, there’s plenty of sand traps and water is in play on ten holes.
There are four Par 3s, each measuring between the 200-230 yard mark, as well as a quartet of scoreable Par 5s, and that would suggest that length is an advantage here.
But there are many ways to skin the cat at Bay Hill, and what we do know is that it will take a classy operator to win this week – and somebody who holes some putts on these quick-ish Bermuda greens.
Weather Forecast for Orlando, FL
There’s nothing in the weather forecast that will shock you about Orlando, Florida.
It’s set to be breezy, sunny and warm in the lead up to the event, which should help to dry out the fairways and greens and quicken them up.
The only slight curiosity is Thursday, which according to the early predictions could play host to some rain and swirling winds of 17 mph and above.
After that things should quieten down, with sunny spells returning on Friday and temperatures around the 73°F mark. Wind speeds should settle around the 15 mph mark.
Last Year’s Results for the The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Talk about saving the best until last….
The 2019 edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational hadn’t seen a round better than 65, that is until Francesco Molinari teed it up on Sunday.
The Italian produced a flawless round of ball-striking, and his 64 – which was bogey-free – was enough to fly up the leaderboard and ultimately take the spoils.
Rory McIlroy, sitting two adrift of Matt Fitzpatrick heading into the final round as the defending champion, could not get anything going and made just two birdies on the day.
Fitzpatrick, eyeing his first PGA TOUR title, led going into Sunday, but his charge for the trophy stalled when he made just a solitary birdie in his opening 14 holes.
Francesco Molinari highlights | Round 4 | Arnold Palmer 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Arnold Palmer Invitational this Week
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is considered a big deal among the players, and the DFS sites have taken that on board with another diverse and potentially lucrative slate of contests.
- PGA $600k Drive the Green: The Drive the Green contest gets a welcome boost up to $600k this week, which means that you can still fork out just $5 for a chance to win a cool $150k top prize!
- PGA $125k Driver: Fancy a single-entry contest in which you can win a jackpot of $25k? These single team events are a great way to make your knowledge shine, and with just 694 entrants and the top 25% or so doubling their money at least this is a great place to start.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the The Arnold Palmer Invitational
When you look at the identities of the most recent winners at Bay Hill, a clear pattern emerges.
Matt Every aside – sorry Matt – and Martin Laird, look at the roll call of champions here: Molinari, McIlroy, Leishman, Day, Woods, Els and Singh.
To a man, these are major winners (Leishman could have won the British Open in 2015) and it’s no surprise that they have triumphed at a venue that rewards quality ball striking.
We are looking for longer hitters this week but not all-out bombers: there are some holes that require 200-yard approaches, and as we know some players are more adept in that department than others.
There is a requirement to shape the ball both ways off the tee, and the shorter the approach in the lower the club you will need – loft is always welcome into these bone dry Bermuda greens.
There will be a wind to factor in too, and as we know some players thrive more in Florida than others.
If you like correlating courses, we’d point you towards TPC Boston, home of the Dell Technologies Championship. Another Arnold Palmer design, McIlroy and Woods have won at both and a whole host of players – Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson, Charley Hoffman and Jason Day – have won at one and finished runner-up at the other.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the The Arnold Palmer Invitational
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Top Tier Pick:
Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 78.7, GPFP: 62.94 Salary: $10,400)
Given his current form and the fact he is a former winner at Bay Hill, Rory McIlroy would be an easy big money pick this week.
But we can save some money on our salary cap by instead drafting another player who appears to be rounding up to victory in the shape of Bryson DeChambeau.
While not everyone’s cup of tea, Bryson is very much comfortable on more complex golf courses where thought and strategy are required, and you suspect the flat capped one will enjoy plotting his way around Arnold Palmer’s pride and joy.
That much was evidenced by his runner-up finish here in 2018, and this time around he heads to Orlando in fine fettle.
A T5 effort at the Genesis Invitational was followed by that agonizing second place at the WGC-Mexico behind Patrick Reed, and so this five-time winner on the PGA TOUR looks to be trending in that direction once more.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 5th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
- Scrambling – 20th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Henrik Stenson (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 70.5, GPFP: 56.40 Salary: $8,800)
With a staggering five top-10 finishes in his last seven trips to Bay Hill, it’s clear that Henrik Stenson thrives at this layout regardless of his lead-in form.
So when he heads to Orlando on the back of some quality ball striking, he has to feature strongly on our radar.
The Swede won Tiger Woods’ Hero World Challenge, and also played some decent golf thereafter in Dubai and Saudi Arabia on the European Tour without fully capitalizing.
Experience counts for plenty at Bay Hill, and Stenson’s ability to shape the ball both ways – and control his ball flight in the wind – make him a must-play at his favorite track in the world.
Key Stats (2019):
- SG: Approach – 1st
- Driving Accuracy – 5th
- Scoring Average – 18th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Collin Morikawa (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 79.2, GPFP: 63.32 Salary: $8,400)
We are still on something of a voyage of discover with Collin Morikawa as he embarks on his first full season as a PGA TOUR pro.
But already we know that the 23-year-old is a young man who boasts outstanding ball-striking abilities, and in the fullness of time tracks like Bay Hill should prove very fruitful for him.
The Californian may have already added to his PGA TOUR title haul if he could putt more convincingly, and oddly that improvement with the flat stick may come on Bermuda – it’s not uncommon for West Coast guys to find something on the greens over in the east.
So good with irons and wedges in hand, Morikawa should have the edge on may in the field in the sense that he won’t have to scramble for his life – assuming he has another premium ball-striking week, of course.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
- Greens in Regulation – 23rd
- Scoring Average – 35th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Brendan Steele (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 62.5, GPFP: 78.80 Salary: $7,500)
We could be guilty of trying to hitch a ride on Brendan Steele’s coattails here, but the truth is that he was in such good form with his ball-striking at PGA National that he has to be of consideration a little further around the Florida coast here.
The reality is that a couple of mistakes cost him a serious tilt at the Honda Classic title, and with Bay Hill set up to be a similar grind there’s no reason why his form won’t travel.
Steele is not a player we’d typically expect to thrive in Florida, but his excellent driving and approach play last week is pretty hard to ignore at this low salary point.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 21st
- Total Driving – 22nd
- SG: Approach – 35th
Low-Tier Pick:
Kevin Na (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 66.6, GPFP: 84.14 Salary: $6,800)
Excellent play from Kevin Na in the past few months, who has enjoyed something of a career renaissance, gets him onto the roster at such an affordable salary.
The secret to the 36-year-old’s success has been his ability to hit the ball close either with iron or wedge in hand – there’s no secret to that, and for a player who has been a perennially good putter it’s obvious the rewards that will bring.
His record at Bay Hill has been feast and famine over the years, but given his current positivity we have to consider a record of three top-10s and a T14 with interest.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 6th
- Scrambling – 7th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 73rd
Sleeper Pick for the The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Maverick McNealy (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 71.7, GPFP: 57.35 Salary: $7,400)
He may be a California by birth, but Maverick McNealy has shown plenty of Florida form on the Korn Ferry Tour in the past.
And those East Coast vibes continued at the Honda Classic, where a T11 finish served as another eye-opener to his undoubted potential.
Ten consecutive cuts made yielded three top-20s and a T5 at the AT&T Pebble Beach, and once more we have the reassurance that if the wind blows McNealy has the game to cope.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 14th
- SG: Putting – 20th
- Scoring Average – 43rd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the The Arnold Palmer Invitational
Matthew NeSmith (Odds: 160/1, FPPG: 65.0, GPFP: 52.03 Salary: $6,800)
It’s once more unto the breach for Matthew NeSmith, a tremendous striker of the golf ball who seems to have a very bright future in the sport.
The South Carolinan continues to put up impressive tee-to-green performances, and a switch to his more native Bermuda grass might just be the catalyst for a winning return on the PGA TOUR.
He’s made eight consecutive cuts on Tour, with three top-20 finishes backed by a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open. NeSmith is getting closer and closer to contending, and Bay Hill looks to be the perfect setting for his skill set.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 25th
- SG: Approach – 41st
- SG: Putting – 47th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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