Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The 2014 TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 TOUR Championship

This Week’s Tournament Preview

Twenty-nine players will head to Atlanta, GA to take on East Lake Golf Club for the grand finale of the 2014 FedExCup playoffs.

Horschel, Kirk, Watson, McIlroy, and Mahan have clinched the Top 5 spots which means that any one of these top five players can clinch the FedExCup with a win this week. Anyone outside the top five in points will need help to win the title by points, which are reset after the BMW Championship to give everyone a mathematical chance of winning the Cup.

There are countless different scenarios that can play out this week, for example, in order for the the  No. 30 ranked player to win the FedExCup, that player will need to win this week’s TOUR Championship and have Billy Horschel (1) finish in the bottom two at this event. Regardless, we’re sure to see some serious number crunching this weekend come Sunday.

When it’s all said and done most of the PGA TOUR will take a much needed rest before the Ryder Cup Team players head to Gleneagles to prepare for yet another highly anticipated event at the end of the month. Meanwhile, most fantasy golf leagues will pick back up in early October, so don’t forget to set your rosters during the relatively new “wrap around” season!

Here is a look at the fall series schedule before the champions meet at Kapalua in January.

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Don’t forget, you can play fantasy golf week-to-week (and other sports) at DraftKings.com. The Fantasy Football weekly buy-in events make for a fun hold-over while waiting for the 2014-15 PGA TOUR season to kick off.

Signature Moments: TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola

Check out Hal Sutton’s victory in 1998, Phil Mickelson’s triumphs in 2000 & 2009, Tiger Woods’ win in 2007, Camilo Villegas’ 2008 victory, Jim Furyk’s 2010 win, and Bill Haas’ clutch win in 2011. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Overall the fantasy team we picked last week at the BMW brought in roughly $715,000 in fantasy earnings with two Top 10 finishes including Rickie Fowler at T4.

The week brings our season total to$42.685 million in fantasy earnings and we still have only 35 missed cuts this season through 36 events (252 players picked in 2014) with an outstanding made-cut percentage on the season is 86.11% (that includes all sleeper picks!).

The Field

World No.1 Rory McIlroy, The Barclays winner Hunter Mahan. and Deutsche Bank Championship victor Chris Kirk headline the 29-man roster chasing the coveted $10 million bonus that goes to the season champion.

Note: The usual 30-man field figures to be reduced by one with Dustin Johnson, on personal leave for the past month, likely to stay among the qualifiers.

At least ten of the U.S. Ryder Cup team members are projected to tee it up at East Lake, with Keegan Bradley on the bubble at Cherry Hills. The Europeans will have McIlroy, Martin Kaymer and Sergio Garcia, with Justin Rose in limbo.

The Course

East Lake Golf Club measures in at 7,154 yards and plays to a par 70. The track was redesigned by Donald Ross and played home to the 1950 U.S. Women’s Amateur, and 1963 Ryder Cup before it took a break from hosting events due to the surrounding area issues.

The course was relocated to the northern suburbs in the late 60s and was revived in 1993 when a team was formed to restore the club as a way of payingtribute to Bobby Jones. The TOUR Championship first begun at East Lake back in 1998 and been an annual PGA TOUR stop since 2004.

You can view a full course tour including hole flyovers for East Lake Golf Club here.

We’ll dissect the course in more detail and discuss how it should play into this week’s field in our weekly fantasy notes segment below.

Photo by EastLakeGolfClub.com

Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Sept 11) 86 degrees, 50% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.
• Round 2: Saturday (Sept 12) 86 degrees, 40% chance of rain, PM T-storms.
• Round 3: Sunday (Sept 13) 81 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 4: Monday (Sept 14) 80 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly cloudy.

2013 Results

We all remember last year when Henrik Stenson emerged with one of the hottest season ending runs in PGA TOUR history after winning the 2013 DB Championship and storming into East Lake with a vengeance.

He was able to withstand charges by Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker who both made noise last year’s TOUR Championship before each falling short by just three strokes. Spieth sank four consecutive birdies on the back nine to pull within one shot of Stenson but he ended up buried in a bunker short of the 17th green where he made bogey.

Stenson carded a final-round 68 and became the first European to win both the TOUR Championship and FedExCup.

Here is wrap-up of Round 4 from last year’s edition of The TOUR Championship:

Round 4 Recap: 2013 TOUR Championship

In the final round of the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola at East Lake Golf Club, Henrik Stenson shot a 2-under 68, winning the tournament and the FedExCup. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday – Friday 1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday 12:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. EST (Golf Channel), 2:30 – 6:00 pm (NBC)
  • Sunday 12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. EST (Golf Channel), 1:30 – 6:00 pm (NBC)
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday – Sunday, 12:00 pm – 6:00 p.m. EST (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

A “dogfight” may be the best way to describe the level of competition we’re sure to see at East Lake this week. Mathematical scenarios will be coming at you in rapid succession as FedExCup positions shift right before our eyes. Every missed green, hazard shot, and drained putt will weigh heavily on the final outcome.  Regardless of where we end up it’s sure to be exciting, nail biting, and ultimately a great tournament to watch.

East Lake offers the chance for high scores to light up the leaderboard, however, mother nature is threatening to make the playing conditions a bit soft – like they did last year. We could see a very windy Sunday after a few days of rain leading up to it.

Slick greens are in forecast for the putting stroke this week, so we’ll be looking at that stat pretty closely. Last year players hit the greens a whopping 69.12% in regulation at East Lake and we’re sure we’ll see similar numbers this time around.

We’ll be taking these numbers (and more) into consideration in our pick segment below.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 TOUR Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2014 TOUR Championship

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 4 /1): Rory should easily be your horse this week in salary cap and Tier leagues. After all, if there is one guy who can win this event and the FedExCup without playing his best golf, its Rors. East Lake was the second easiest Par 70 on TOUR last year and with this kid’s game, there is no doubt that he can tear it up. It’s worth noting that McIlroy hasn’t been to this course since 2010, but we’re confident that it shouldn’t prevent him from making some serious noise this week. Also remember that Rory finished second in the final FedExCup standings back in 2012, so redemption is definitely in order.
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 6/1): Even with a small field there were still plenty of choices for the #2 spot this week, but Fowler keeps impressing fantasy owners week in and week out. You’ll break the bank in salary cap this week having both Fowler and Rory on your team, but why not take a shot in the finale with some heavy guns. Fowler is peaking at just the right time (remember Stenson did the same last year), but he hasn’t yet slammed the door on a win. Winning this week would be huge for the emerging young star, and if the numbers play out right it could land him a FedExCup before heading to Gleneagles for the Ryder Cup. He’s coming off of a T4 at the BMW which marked a remarkable seventh top 10 in his last eight starts. Even more importantly, his putting is starting to come together and his short-game/approach has been lights out.
• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 10/1): Speaking of peaking at the right time, Bubba is heading to his home turf of Georgia with a very hot hand. Watson carded  three straight 66s at Cherry Hills and finished in solo second while leading the field in strokes gained tee-to-green. Last time Bubba was at East Lake he finished T5 (2012) and has proven to sneak in and win big events.
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 14/1): Furyk is returning to East Lake which also happens to be the site of his last PGA TOUR win. When he notched that epic FedExCup win, Furyk was dominating the scrambling stat, and he’s back on top in that arena, currently ranking first on TOUR. The dangerous veteran is coming off of a T4 at the BMW last week which marked  his fifth top 10 in his last seven starts. There is no doubt that he’ll be heading the US Ryder Cup team into battle in a couple of weeks and with that in mind he’ll be looking to grab some extra momentum this week.  A win here would be sweet for the old-timer, and it would give him a second FedExCup matching Tiger Woods for most all-time.
• Billy Horschel (Golficity Odds 22/1): Billy Ho is a tough pick in this strong field, but you’ll notice some of the bigger named/priced players in the field look exhausted. Coming off of a major and preparing for four consecutive playoff events requires quite a bit of stamina, and momentum. Billy is just the guy with that level of tenacity. When the world was ready to write him off after chunking a stock 6-iron 30 yards short of the green (which could have won him the DB Championship), he persevered and followed up with a key win. Quieting the critics at Cherry Hills last week with a bounce back win was exactly the confidence booster that a player needs to win back-to-back.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The 2014 TOUR Championship

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 30/1): Spieth is a name most fantasy golf players will overlook this week – a fact you should be able to user to your advantage. He’s cooled off dramatically since the beginning of the summer but still manages to grind each event out to a solid finish. Jordan posted a T8 at Cherry Hills where he shared the 18-hole lead at one point. He finished T2 in his first start at East Lake last year and could be peaking at the right time heading into Atlanta and then over to Scotland. Look for Spieth to be a great addition in any pick’em league and he just may surprise you with some solid fantasy points.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The 2014 TOUR Championship

• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 35/1):  This guy could easily be a 10/1 pick in our Top 5, but some late round struggles continue to derail him. Like the others, Palmer is certainly peeking at the right time and has proven it with two top fives and a T16 in three of his last four starts. He led the BMW in par-4 scoring and is sitting pretty confident with his game heading into the finale. If Billy can have his redemption in Colorado, Ryan can pull it off here. As an added bonus you can snag Palmer for only $7,600 in salary cap leagues on DraftKings.

Overall, we feel the player holding the FedExCup at the end of all will be Rory McIlroy.  Although he 4-putted twice last week (going 5-over on just those two holes), you can’t rule out his experience and skill. Like Tiger, Rory can win even when not playing at his personal best, and by sitting in the Top 5, that means he can win the FedExCup with a T-3rd place finish. Other players like Kirk, Watson and Horschel can win it a little bit easier, but we like Rory’s game far more than anyone else in the field right now.

We also want to take a moment to thank you for being a premium member this fantasy golf season. We look forward to bringing you even more winners in October when the fall series kicks off.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 BMW Bank Championship

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 6 /1): WD
• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 8/1): T8 ($232,000)
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 14/1): T46 ($22,680)
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 18/1): T4 ($319,000)
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 22/1): 35th ($43,200)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 BMW Championship

• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 33/1): T23 ($69,200)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 BMW Championship

• Zach Johnson (Golficity Odds 38/1): T43 ($28,000)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $42,685,659 (Weekly average = $1,185,712).
• Total Top 10s: 85 out of 252 players picked (33.73%).
• Total Top 3s: 25 out of 252 players picked (9.92%).
• Total Missed Cuts: Only 35 out of 252 players picked (86.11% made the cut).
• Total Major Winners Picked: 2 out of 4 (50%).
• Total WGC Event Winners Picked: 2 out of 3 (66.67%).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2014 TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola with other Premium Members.

(Cover Photo Credit)