Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – PGA Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the PGA Championship
PGA Championship Fantasy Preview
The old adage ‘the harder I work, the luckier I get’ gets trotted out in the aftermath of victories like Justin Thomas’ at the WGC St Jude Invitational last week, but it’s a pretty glib way to describe how the conclusion at TPC Southwind unfolded.
Trailing Brendon Todd by four shots heading into the final round, JT played a flawless first nine to get himself right back into the equation. But at 15 he enjoyed an incredible slice of luck, his errant drive landing on the cart path and rebounding over a water hazard. So often golf tournaments are predicated on such moments.
In fairness, Thomas the stiffed his wedge approach to six foot, made the putt and then never looked back, with some outstanding chips and short approaches taking him to a three-shot win from Brooks Koepka and co. It was his thirteenth PGA TOUR win – only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus had won more at the same age.
Tiger’s name will come up in conversation a lot this week as he makes his long-awaited return at the PGA Championship, which will this year be hosted by TPC Harding Park – a layout where he has won in the past. But then, is there any piece of golfing real estate in the US where the Big Cat hasn’t prevailed?
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
What a week to catch fire … the week before a major!
Last week we finished our main picks segment with 4 Top 6 finishes including Justin Thomas as our “Top Pick.” With JT in the lineup our sample DraftKings roster finished with a total point value of 510.55.
With the win, JT becomes our 6th winner picked this year.
2020 PGA Championship Field
It’s the first major since the British Open in the summer of 2019, so you can rest assured that a high-quality field is chomping at the bit to get started.
Justin Thomas overtook Jon Rahm as the world number one after just one week at the summit for the Spaniard – they will lock horns once more here alongside players that need to be introduced by one name only: Tiger, Rory, Brooks, Bryson, Dustin and so on.
There’s a fantastic supporting cast including the likes of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed, while given the conditions the Europeans are expected to go well – Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick will be on the radars of many.
All told, 156 players will be looking to break into the winner’s circle in San Francisco.
This Week’s Course Preview
While no stranger to hosting big-time golf, it’s still a rare trip to TPC Harding Park that the players will be making.
This stretch in San Fran is actually a municipal course, and so it’s extraordinary that they are going to be able to put on a major standard layout this week – even more so when you consider that as recently as 1998 the track was in such bad shape that it was used as a car park when the neighboring Olympic Club hosted the US Open!
But with investment and the love of Sandy Tatum, a former USGA president, TPC Harding Park has been restored to a standard required to host majors and big tournaments – there’s been a couple of WGCs here in the past decade or so, as well as the President’s Cup of 2009.
At first glance, the players could be in for a stern examination this week. The fairways are nice and narrow here and the early reports suggest that the rough is up – and when you factor in some high winds (more on that shortly) it could make life rather interesting.
There are some huge cypress trees flanking the fairways too, with six of the holes serving up a dogleg of some kind. As if that wasn’t enough, there is prolific greenside bunkering in play, with the sand traps largely at the front of the greens – pin positioning could determine how many players spend ample time on the beach, but even then finding the sand could be preferable to going over-the-back of these greens.
The putting surface is the Bentgrass/Poa strain native to the west coast, and these greens could run very quickly indeed given the hot temperatures and strong winds present in the area of late.
At 7,234 yards for its Par 70, TPC Harding Park could play long given the thickness of the air in this part of the world, and so the presence of Lake Merced – while not really a nuisance to the players as far as being a hazard – will offer great views for any players needing to relax and calm down in what could be grinding conditions this week!
Weather Forecast for San Francisco, CA
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best might just be the motto in San Francisco this week.
The early forecast is suggesting a rather cool four days in California, with temperatures ranging from 66-69°F, which isn’t really what you’d expect. At least there will be some sunshine in among the clouds.
What really catches the eye is the predicted wind speeds, which if accurate really will play havoc on the field. A breeze of 20 mph could greet the players on Thursday, and it’s only expected to drop down to 17 mph thereafter – the trees will only provide some respite. If you can’t play in the wind, forget about it this week!
Last Year’s Results for PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka became only the second back-to-back winner of the PGA Championship since it became a major strokeplay event in the 1950s.
It was a fantastic fourth major for Brooks, who took the lead with a round of 63 at Bethpage Black on the Thursday and never looked back.
He followed up with 65 on Friday, and such was his dominance over the field he enjoyed a seven-shot advantage heading into the final round. But is it ever that easy to win a major? Of course not, and as the wind picked up in New York it had an unsettling effect on Koepka, who started to leak mistakes.
Fortunately for him, nobody could really make up the ground, and so a round of 74 was enough for Brooks to outlast Dustin Johnson and claim the trophy by two shots.
Brooks Koepka’s Full 18th Hole as He Wins the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for PGA Championship this Week
The first major of the year brings with it a major-quality slate of contests, so if you have built a handsome bankroll now’s the time to get stuck in!
- PGA $3M Fantasy Millionaire: DK’s milly maker gets a hard time from some due to the balance of payouts available, but any contest where you can double your cash just for finishing in the first 10,000 teams has to hold appeal. As does the chance to win a million from just $20, of course!
- PGA $500k Drive the Green: It has to be said that this PGA Championship really is a difficult event to call, and so perhaps multi-entry contests – pivoting around a central core of players – is the way to go. For $5 a turn, you can have your shot at the $100k top prize.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for PGA Championship
If we take the weather forecast as read and the rough is as thick as is being described, this tournament could resemble more of a US Open than a PGA Championship by the end of the week.
The wind will be the primary defense for TPC Harding Park this week, but with that rough, some big overhanging trees and plentiful greenside bunkers it’s going to take a lot of patience and discipline to put together a winning score.
We’re expecting the greens, such of which are undulating, to run pretty quickly too, as will the fairways – ball-run could be something of a nemesis for the players.
The conditions should make for a fascinating contest, and you would expect long, straight drivers to have a significant advantage this week – when don’t they?
That said, approach play will surely be crucial. Even the best in the business will miss GIR this week, and so comfortability around the greens and in bunkers will be key – a touch of class with wedges in hand will be a huge edge-giver.
We’re already thinking of plodders and plotters for our draft, but then you factor in other conditions. The players always comment on how ‘thick’ the air is in San Fran, and how that can add length to many holes. We’re already looking at a layout with a 240+ yard Par 3, so there will be something of a premium on accurate distance.
The picture is as clear as mud, but classy ball-strikers who are at home in the wind – and who have some short game to speak of – will perhaps prevail in the PGA Championship.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win PGA Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win PGA Championship
Top Tier Pick:
Brooks Koepka (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 58.5, GPFP: 73.66 Salary: $11,100)
We had rostered Brooks as our headline pick for the PGA Championship last year – that ended well, and the form he showed at TPC Southwind suggests the defending champion is ready to go in again.
His ball-striking in the WGC St Jude was phenomenal, and unfortunately in golf there’s only ever enough room on the winner’s trophy for one name – Brooks made the odd crucial mistake, Thomas survived his and the rest is history. On another week, it would have been B. Koepka being engraved on the silverware.
No matter. He will keep his focus this week in the hunt for a historic three-peat, and dodgy knee or not Koepka goes into the event in as good a position as anybody else.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 100-125 yards – 17th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 19th
- Birdie Average – 45th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Xander Schauffele (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 82.6, GPFP: 66.88 Salary: $10,000)
With just one bogey all week, it’s a mystery as to why Xander Schauffele didn’t contend more forcefully in the WGC St Jude.
Well, it isn’t actually, because Xander made a quadruple bogey in his second round and that was that. But there were only two blemishes in a week in which he drove the ball very well and was in good touch around the greens – that’s an interesting combination ahead of the trip to TPC Harding Park.
A multiple-time champion already, Schauffele is strong in all departments of the game and he has both the game and the psychological strength to win a major in the near future. Hopefully, for us at least, the Californian will be right in contention on home soil come Sunday!
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th
- Scoring Average – 6th
- Scrambling – 7th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Adam Scott (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 84.1, GPFP: 72.29 Salary: $7,800)
The Australian will be overlooked this week simply because he hasn’t played for so long, but then that’s just Adam Scott’s style – he only plays when he really wants to.
The reason he can do that is because he’s so effective when he does dust off the clubs, and in February he was winning the Genesis Invitational despite not having teed up for three months prior to that.
You’ll do well to find a player with a better record on the west coast than Scott, and we have absolutely no qualms about backing him even allowing for his lack of recent competitive action.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 4th
- Approaches from 100-125 yards – 4th
- Scoring Average – 19th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Chez Reavie (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 59.2, GPFP: 47.38 Salary: $7,400)
There is ample room in our drafts and betslips for an accurate plodder this week, and don’t discount Chez Reavie just because he’s not as flash as many others in the field.
Hitting fairways and hitting greens – that will absolutely be the way at TPC Harding Park, and when missing the odd GIR there’s a demand for a good scrambling/chipping game too. And Reavie ticks all of these boxes, and the hope is that the switch to Bentgrass/Poa will aid his putting stroke too.
He can thrive when the going gets tough too – T6 last week and T10 at the Genesis is proof of that, and when keeping mistakes to a minimum is key Reavie often comes to the fore.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 6th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 21st
- Sand Save Percentage – 22nd
Low-Tier Pick:
Kevin Streelman (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 56.2, GPFP: 70.28 Salary: $7,100)
One of those solid-but-unspectacular plays, many a winning fantasy team has been built around the likes of Kevin Streelman.
Why? Because you kinda know what you’re going to get. It’s fairways and greens for a player ranked 24th on Tour for Driving Accuracy and 58th for Greens in Regulation, and while that might not be a combination that excites the neutral observer it gives Streelman the edge on many higher profile names who will be caught out by the conditions this week.
What’s more, the 41-year-old has form in the ledger, with top-10s at the Travelers Championship and the Workday Charity Open in recent memory. Don’t sleep on the plotters like Streelman this week.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 24th
- Greens in Regulation – 58th
- Scoring Average – 71st
Sleeper Pick for PGA Championship
Kevin Na (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 65.0, GPFP: 77.31 Salary: $7,000)
While he doesn’t leap off the page as a possible major winner, Kevin Na should outperform expectations this week on a course that should suit.
Strong enough with irons in hand, Na has a masterful short game on and around the greens and is comfortable in the wind, and with much of his best work coming on Bentgrass/Poa he really could thrive this week.
The common gripe about the 36-year-old was that he didn’t win often enough. Well, three PGA TOUR wins since 2018 may not be ultra-prolific but it’s more than many other players in this field, and Na should be respected more at TPC Harding Park.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 3rd
- Scrambling – 5th
- SG: Approach – 40th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for PGA Championship
Ryan Palmer (Odds: 180/1, FPPG: 66.5, GPFP: 81.76 Salary: $6,900)
One of the most proficient players around in the wind, Ryan Palmer probably won’t win the PGA Championship, but a live contender for a top-10 finish from a $6,900 salary? That’ll work.
The Texan may love golf in the deep south but he’s got plenty of chops to his name on the west coast too, and in his penultimate start he was solo second in the tough conditions at Muirfield Village.
A Sony Open champion with top-10s at all manner of coastal tracks, a breeze won’t bother Palmer and his tee-to-green game really does stand up to scrutiny in all conditions. He is the dictionary definition of a sleeper play here.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 25th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 27th
- Scrambling – 54th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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