BETS: Matchups, Faders, Straight Up Winners, & More // Arnold Palmer Invitational

Given that this was the first TOUR event at The Concession, there was speculation as to what type of player would play well this weekend. And of course it was Collin Morikawa, who in my opinion is the most all around player on TOUR, next to guys like JT and Pat Cantlay.

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At one point on Saturday, Morikawa had birdied 7 of 8 holes, and he followed that up with a 5 under 67 on Sunday to take it. When we look back on the first event at The Concession, I think people will underestimate how tough this course was because the winning score was at 18 under. There was perfect weather all weekend, but if the wind had picked up and there was some rain mixed in, it could have been a whole different story.

Let’s look ahead to what should be another tough course during this Florida swing.

To Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational: Paul Casey (+2500)

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There are a few guys that you can target going into this tournament, and the one statistic they all rank highly in is SG: Tee-to-Green. Casey is 35th in SG: Tee to Green, in part due to the fact that he drives the ball far (37th in Distance), as well very accurately. His first two events of 2021 have both resulted in finishes within the top 10, and I expect the same this weekend at Bay Hill.

To Finish Top 10 at The Arnold Palmer Invitational: Matthew Fitzpatrick (+225)

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This swing of golf is going to benefit Fitzpatrick because his forte is playing well at the tougher courses on TOUR. The past two weeks he’s finished T5 and T11 respectively, and I think he has a serious chance to contend this week.

To Finish Top 20 at The Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sam Burns (+188)

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After a disappointing Sunday at Riviera Country Club, I expect Sam Burns to continue his stretch of consistently good golf, especially at a course where Tee to Green is so important.

Two Matchup Picks: (8-7-1 in 2021)

Sam Burns (-125) over Cameron Tringale

Charles Howell III (-129) over Brandon Grace

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Will Zalatoris Top 40 (-143)

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Zalatoris has played steadily fantastic golf in 2021, and I don’t expect that to change. His driving accuracy is really the only statistic you could point to in a negative light, but he hit 71% of fairways at The Concession, so I’m confident in him this week.

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