Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for BMW Championship

BMW Championship Fantasy Preview

It’s been a long time coming, but finally Tony Finau has gotten over the line in a significant PGA TOUR event.

That Puerto Rico Open trophy, picked up in 2016, was starting to gather plenty of dust, but Finau can now add the NORTHERN TRUST silverware to his cabinet in what is the highlight of the talented 31-year-old’s career to date.

He did it the hard way too, grinding out a round of 65 in Monday’s delayed final chapter to leap to the top of the leaderboard alongside Cameron Smith, the 54-hole leader who played a nerveless back nine of -4 to also finish on -20.

But Finau, who went birdie-birdie-eagle-par-birdie at one point on the back nine, was full of confidence and it showed on the first extra hole, where a solid par was enough to see off the faltering Smith.

Perhaps in slightly unexpected fashion, Big Tony now leads the way in the FedExCup standings with just two events to play. And he could all but wrap up the title should he go on to claim victory at the BMW Championship this week.

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Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week or top dog Collin Morikawa fell victim to the cut line, while our guy Kevin Na keep impressing us. 

Na finished T8 after a solid second place finish the week before.

Correy Connors and Shane Lowry, who were our top two guys on the Sleeper Report, finished T8 and T11 respectively. 

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BMW Championship Field

We’re getting down to the nitty gritty in the FedExCup race now, and only 70 remain in the hunt for the big bucks.

It goes without saying that all of the heavyweights will be heading to Owings Mills near Baltimore, with messrs Finau, Rahm, Smith, Cantlay and Thomas – the current top-five in the standings – joined by McIlroy, Johnson, DeChambeau, Morikawa, Spieth and co.

At this point, we’re expecting all of the 70 to play bar from one – Patrick Reed, who has been admitted to hospital with pneumonia. Happily, he is said to be making good progress, but won’t be ready for the BMW.

There will be a free hit for the likes of Phil Mickelson, who scraped into the top-70 on the number on a fraught Monday of calculations for PGA TOUR officials. Could Lefty somehow pull it out of the fire at Caves Valley GC?

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This Week’s Course Preview

After that one-year stop-off at Olympia Fields, it’s more new ground being broken on the PGA TOUR this week.

Caves Valley Golf Club, of Owings Mills just outside of Baltimore, takes on hosting duties, and we are in something of an unknown territory.

The layout hosted the Constellation Senior Players Championship in 2017, which Scott McCarron won with a score of -18 – that suggests if the golden oldies are taking it to task, the best in the world certainly will.

But, otherwise, the course is yet to host any other significant strokeplay events, despite welcoming team-based LPGA and NCAA tournament golf to its tees in recent times.

All we can do is tell you what we know – that is, Caves Valley measures around 7,230 yards for its Par 71, with three Par 5s and four Par 3s on the real estate. Designed by Tom Fazio, the fairways and greens are both Bentgrass, and it’s worth noting that the dancefloors have some serious elevation changes and undulations.

In fact, that seems to be the key theme, with some major uphill and downhill holes that will test both strategy and physical conditioning. Don’t forget, Fazio had his role in the upkeep of Augusta National, so that may yet prove to be an interesting comparison.

There’s certainly plenty of trees at Caves Valley, although these seem to be set quite far back and really shouldn’t be a factor for the top pros. Some of the fairways are shaved thin, but the rough does not appear to be too gnarly judging by the photos we’ve seen – those could be famous last words of course.

There is some water on the real estate, but that only appears to be a factor on a handful of holes, and all told there doesn’t appear to be too many dangers present at Caves Valley GC.

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Weather Forecast for Owings Mills, MD

Any British readers will recall the legendary tale of weatherman Michael Fish, who told BBC viewers there was nothing to worry about back in 1987 when fears of a hurricane striking were mounting. In the end, the resultant storm killed 22 people and resulted in $2 billion of property damage.

We weren’t quite that bad at The NORTHERN TRUST last week, but we weren’t far away – the early forecast suggesting a benign week before an actual hurricane blew into Jersey City on the Sunday.

So, here we go again….the forecast is looking fairly quiet for Owings Mills this week.

The presumption is that Storm Henri will move on and leave the east coast alone, and the wind speeds of 5-6 mph as predicted so far certainly suggest as much.

It’s going to be nice and warm too, with temperatures topping 95˚F, although note the potential anomaly on Saturday – ‘isolated’ thunderstorms have been mentioned.

OWINGS MILLS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship

Olympia Fields was something of an anomaly 12 months ago – replacing the traditional BMW Championship birdie-fest with a squally US Open worthy test matched by difficult conditions.

And so it was no great surprise that only five of the 69-man field finished under par, and what a joy it was that two of those – heavyweights Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson – go toe-to-toe in a playoff after finishing the 72 holes locked at -4.

The Spaniard would have been celebrating a victory in regular time but for a spectacular putt on the final hole from DJ, who judged a double-breaking 40 footer to absolute perfection.

But revenge is a dish best served cold, and like a tasty Gazpacho it was Rahm who would have a moment of magic on the greens of his own, plopping a side-winding 60-footer into the bucket on the first extra hole to secure the win.

Joaquin Niemann and Hideki Matsuyama were tied on -2 for a share of T3, with Tony Finau the only other player to break par.

DJ and Rahm’s incredible putts in 2020 BMW Championship | Player reactions

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the BMW Championship this Week

With just 69, or maybe even fewer, to pick from in the field, making your knowledge count from a DFS perspective is difficult at the BMW Championship. But, if you are going to fire a few darts at it, these contests are arguably the most appealing.

• PGA $1M Flop Shot: You’ll need deep pockets to play in the Mega Millionaire contest, so instead why not give this big bucks game a try – the winner is rewarded with a $250k bounty from their $15 entry.
• PGA $200k Driver: To maximize your edge, a single entry contest might be your best port of call this week, and if you are going to have a solitary silver bullet this game – $200k prize pot, 1111 players, $200 entry – might be the best of the lot.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the BMW Championship  

There is an element of guesswork this week, admittedly, but we’re expecting the 2021 BMW Championship to be more in line with the likes of Medinah, Aronimink and Crooked Stick, where birdies were not in short supply.

The fact that a senior’s event was won in -18 at this stretch sets the scene, and while it could be interesting if the rough is up – some of the fairways at Caves Valley are quite narrow – there are few other hazards to consider.

With the forecast a decent one, the main contention for the players might be judging distances given the undulations of the layout – those with previous successes in such an environment are favored.

We’re not convinced that any other Fazio course really correlates to Caves Valley, and so we’re down to the usual suspects when it comes to shortlisting our roster – current form, ability on Bentgrass greens, comfort hitting into greens from different elevations and, most crucially, making birdies (note that there’s only a trio of Par 5s here).

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win BMW Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the BMW Championship

Top Tier Pick #1:

Justin Thomas (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 79.6, GPFP: 103.49 Salary: $10,600)

It’s quite probable that the winner this week will be a player that is relentless in creating birdie opportunities with fine approach play, and so Justin Thomas has to be on the roster.

He was striking his irons with some class at Liberty National, and it was only a few duff chips that will be in his mind heading to Maryland.

But with every other facet of his game working well, JT should be in confident mood and hungry too – he’s only won once in 2021 remember, which by his paltry standards is a below-par return.

He’ll be desperate to rectify that, and what better time than at the business end of the FedExCup race.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 1st
• Greens in Regulation – 8th
• SG: Putting – 12th

Top Tier Pick #2:

Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 80.2, GPFP: 65.72 Salary: $9,300)

It’s rare that Bryson DeChambeau goes under the radar anywhere these days, but he may just do that this week after a quiet spell – despite Caves Valley being seemingly perfect for him.

The fairways look quite narrow at the track but the trees are set back, and so there may be plenty who miss the short stuff off the tee.

The point is that Bryson will be a lot closer to the green than most, and it helps that he might just be able to cut the corners off a few of the doglegs as well.

With an improving iron and wedge game, he really found his stroke in the final round at Liberty National, and that will serve as notice to everyone else that Bryson is back.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 1st
• Birdie Average – 11th
• SG: Putting – 29th

Mid-Tier Pick #1: 

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 71.3, GPFP: 57.05 Salary: $8,900)

It seems that, even at this ‘young’ stage of his career, Scottie Scheffler has done everything but clinch his maiden PGA TOUR title.

This season he has served up fourteen top-25 finishes in 26 starts, including ten top-10s, and so is clearly knocking on the door.

What does he need to get over the line? Well, a Par 71 low scoring shootout might be the way to go given that Scheffler ranks second on TOUR for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders, and that formline – four top-10s in five starts prior to The NORTHERN TRUST – is hard to resist.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 2nd
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 31st

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Shane Lowry (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 65.0, GPFP: 61.12 Salary: $7,900)

As has been the case for a while now, Shane Lowry was awesome with his irons at Liberty National, and we await that hot hand with the putter with great interest.

Whether that will come anytime soon remains to be seen, but if you keep creating chances like the Irishman has been on approach then – sooner or later – you’d like to think that the ultimate reward will follow.

A player with a winning pedigree, if Lowry keeps delivering iron game clinics, he will surely add another trophy to his collection soon enough.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 15th
• SG: Approach – 19th
• Scoring Average – 33rd

Low-Tier Pick: 

Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 64.3, GPFP: 51.43 Salary: $6,500)

A couple of weeks off has given Emiliano Grillo a chance to reset ahead of the season’s end.

The 36-hole leader at the Barracuda Championship, Grillo also finished T12 at the British Open just prior – ending a run of three missed cuts.

The Argentine, an excellent ball striker, ranks as the top dog on the PGA TOUR for Par 4 Scoring Average, and that will act as a firm foundation for success at Caves Valley.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 1st
• SG: Approach – 13th
• Total Driving – 19th

Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship

Kevin Streelman (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 62.18, GPFP: 69.02 Salary: $7,200 )

It would be fair to say that Kevin Streelman’s turn at The NORTHERN TRUST did not go as anticipated.

In hindsight, maybe Liberty National is a fraction too long for the veteran to truly thrive, but at the shorter Caves Valley we can expect him to replicate the form he showed in his T7 turn at the Wyndham Championship and T19 at the British Open.

A Par 4 birdie machine, Streelman can prosper in Owings Mills and gatecrash the TOUR Championship party.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 19th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 26th
• SG: Approach – 29th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship

Sebastian Munoz (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 60.9, GPFP: 48.71 Salary: $6,700)

Last season, Sebastian Munoz battled his way through to the TOUR Championship, to cap an excellent season, and he will have the same idea in mind in the next fortnight too.

Ranked 59 in the standings, the Colombian will have his work cut out in qualifying for East Lake, but a strong showing this week could just see him sneak into the reckoning.

And why not? Munoz’s ball-striking has improved markedly in the past couple of months – so much so he nearly won a bronze medal at the Olympics. He finished T4 at the John Deere Classic and inside the top-30 of the Wyndham and the NORTHERN TRUST, with each of his last 12 rounds carded in the 60s. The omens are certainly good….

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 31st
• Total Driving – 44th
• SG: Approach – 63rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

 

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.61%” bar_text=23 out of 302 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”16.23%” bar_text=”49 out of 302 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”29.14%” bar_text=”88 out of 302 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”20.93%” bar_text=”9 out of 43 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”11.62%” bar_text=”5 out of 43 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”70.52%” bar_text=”213 out of 302 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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