Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Honda Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Honda Classic  

Honda Classic Fantasy Preview

There’s an episode of Netflix’s PGA TOUR documentary called ‘Golf Is Hard’, and if any event summed up that truism it was Sunday’s conclusion to the Genesis Invitational.

Riviera Country Club remains a stunning golf course and one that provides the perfect test of every department of a player’s game. And so it wasn’t a huge surprise that three individuals in the world’s top 20 – Jon Rahm, Max Homa and Patrick Cantlay – were left to duke it out for the trophy.

If golf is hard, winning a golf tournament is even harder. Birdies were in relatively short supply on Sunday, which goes to show how tough golf can be under the most intense of pressure. 

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In the end, it was a couple of moments of magic from Rahm – including a clutch 45-foot putt on the fourteenth hole for birdie – that separated him from the field. 

If golf is hard, the Spaniard at least makes it appear easier than most….he’s won three times on the PGA TOUR already in 2023, joining an elite club alongside Arnold Palmer and Johnny Miller to have picked up a trio of wins in a calendar year before March.

It’s off to Arnie’s place next week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but first up is the maiden event of this year’s Florida Swing: the Honda Classic at PGA National.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Simply put, Rahm was the name last week.

Is this the season of 5+ wins for the Spaniard? We feel it may just be; I mean the man is a force! 

Our top dogs last week were Xander, Finau, and Day who all had impressive finishes but nothing too fantastic for us to cheer for.

Onward to next week…

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Honda Classic Field

Sandwiched in-between the Genesis and the Arnold Palmer – both ‘elevated’ tournaments that will attract the world’s best, the Honda Classic gets a tough billing.

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That’s why you’ll find some scarcely believable sportsbook odds on the market leaders – Sungjae Im (8/1), Shane Lowry (14/1), Aaron Wise (25/1) and Min-Woo Lee (25/1) confirmation of how weak this field is.

Sepp Straka returns as the defending champion, while the likes of Billy Horschel, Matt Kuchar and Chris Kirk add a touch of veteran grind into the mix. Even further up the age scale is Padraig Harrington, a two-time winner at PGA National who triumphed four times on the Champions Tour last season.

This Week’s Course Preview

The quality of the field will be exacerbated by the challenge posed by PGA National, a former PGA Championship and Ryder Cup host that remains one of the toughest assignments on the TOUR.

A number of designers have gotten their hands on the course over the years, but the most notable modifications were made by none other than Jack Nicklaus – his work included the infamous ‘Bear Trap’ of holes from 15 through 17.

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It’s not overly long at 7,158 yards for its Par 70, but the rough can be challenging when left up – especially when hitting into the large green complexes, which boast unique elevations and contours that the players simply don’t encounter every week.

Many of the Bermuda greens and fairways are protected by water hazards – the drink is in-play on some 15 holes, and that perhaps helps to explain why 14/18 averaged over par last year.

There’s difficulty lurking from front to back, although it’s the Bear Trap that captures much of the attention – our winner will have to navigate this stretch successfully on Sunday. The trio is bookended by Par 3s, with fifteen featuring an island green and seventeen’s dancefloor measuring just 30ft wide. Sixteen, meanwhile, features a doglegging fairway at about 90 degrees.

Only the two Par 5s (including the eighteenth) and a pair of Par 4s averaged under par in 2022, while the 479-yard fourth remains one of the most difficult holes on TOUR – there was almost as many double bogeys (or worse) made here last year as birdies!

Weather Forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, FL

After a pretty cool West Coast Swing, sun worshippers will be delighted that the action is heading over to Florida.

They will be greeted by wall-to-wall sunshine this week and temperatures of around 84˚F, which helps to explain why PGA National plays so firm and fast.

The Floridian wind often takes no prisoners either, although this week’s early predictions – 9mph to 13mph – are a little lower than what we might ordinarily expect.

PALM BEACH GARDENS WEATHER

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Honda Classic this Week

Perhaps the best way to play weak-field events is to focus on single entry contests, and consider your lineups as something of a lottery given the inconsistent nature of the players involved. Here’s two of the games we’re playing this week:

• PGA $50k Dogleg: It will cost you $33 to enter, but once you’re in you’ll be battling it out in a single-entry game featuring a top prize of $5k. There’s only 1,766 entries allowed in total too.

• PGA $40k Albatross: Again, we’re in single-entry territory but for a more budget-conscious $12. There’s still less than 4,000 players vying for the $4k top prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

A watery stretch at which danger lurks at every turn, it takes nerves of steel and a steady swing to get the job done at PGA National.

The most errant off the tee need not apply, and the driving accuracy ranks of the last three winners – Straka (1), Matt Jones (15) and Sungjae Im (10) – are indicative of what is required.

Hitting solid approaches into the right portions of the green is also of paramount importance, with some scrambling required when irons and wedges go astray, while it’s worth noting we switch back to Bermuda greens this week – firm and fast ones, by all accounts, too.

There is an occasionally open and exposed feel to PGA National, so drafting quality wind players is of paramount importance, as is backing those willing to grind out par – we’ve used other ‘hard’ courses, such as Augusta and Bay Hill, as a guide.

There’s some interesting correlations with the Sony Open too. These events are wind-affected, Bermuda and feature above-average numbers of approach shots in the 125-200 yard range – is it any wonder that stacks of players have finished high up on the leaderboard at both?

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Honda Classic   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Honda Classic  

Top Tier Pick #1

Chris Kirk (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 68.2, GPFP: 77.09 Salary: $9,900)

It will take a brave DFS gamer to arm themselves with the chalk picks this week.

Sungjae has been leaking strokes off the tee since the start of the year – not ideal at PGA National, and you have to go back to November to find the last time Lowry gained strokes on the field putting in a ShotLink event.

Perhaps spreading our salary cap across our picks is the smarter way to play it, and Chris Kirk will be looking to frank a solid 2022 with even better form this year.

He delivered back-to-back third place finishes in January, and has performed well at loosely-correlating events like the Arnold Palmer and Sony Open. A top-10 at last year’s Honda Classic continues to pique our interest.

An accurate driver and precise iron player, Kirk has the skillset to prevail in a test of precision and course management.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 37th
• SG: Approach – 47th
• SG: Putting – 47th

Top Tier Pick #2

Matt Kuchar (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 68.8, GPFP: 81.81 Salary: $9,300)

Matt Kuchar has made a handsome living out of keeping his ball under control in windy conditions, and so it’s something of a surprise that he hasn’t frequented PGA National in a long time.

Maybe his timing is impeccable, because ball-striking improvements at the Genesis Invitational set Kooch up rather nicely.

He’s putting well, for the most part, has the experience to grind out a winning score in tough conditions, and his accuracy-first approach should serve him rather well in Palm Beach. 

A former Honda Classic and Sony Open champion, can Kuchar rewind the hands of time and get back into the winner’s circle?

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
• SG: Putting – 52nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Adam Svensson (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 64.2, GPFP: 51.34 Salary: $8,700)

After winning the RSM Classic in November, the Canadian continues to show signs of real quality on the PGA TOUR.

It takes a good player to finish in the top-10 at Riviera, as Svensson did last week, and it was interesting to see just howe good his short game was there – normally, his edge comes from his metronomic approach player.

Another who takes the accurate, rather than bombastic, route off the tee, Svensson seems to enjoy windy conditions and has previous on fast Bermuda greens too, so he is somebody that could back up a strong showing in the Genesis on the opposite coast this week.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 11th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th
• Scoring Average – 66th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Hayden Buckley (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 72.3, GPFP: 57.84 Salary: $7,600)

He is, low key, one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the PGA TOUR – you have to go all the way back to April to find the last time Hayden Buckley lost strokes to the field off the tee in a measured event.

It takes more than that to win a tournament, of course, but improvements on approach in 2023 have already swept him to second place at one of our correlating events, the Sony Open.

The history books show that Buckley feels more at home on Bermuda greens, and so could that prove to be decisive in his next step to becoming a PGA TOUR champion?

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 5th 
• Greens in Regulation – 11th
• Scoring Average – 27th

Low-Tier Pick

Ryan Palmer (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 50.6, GPFP: 64.29 Salary: $7,400)

Ryan Palmer has been a strong performer in blustery, firm and fast conditions for a number of years.

He found things tough in 2022 by his own high standards, but Palmer has spoken positively about his game in recent times and ball striking improvements are the upshot of that.

He’s another that won’t mind the switch to Bermuda greens this week, and good vibes at PGA National – he’s got more than one top-five finish here – enhance the positive feeling.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 46th
• Total Driving – 63rd
• SG: Approach – 79th

Sleeper Pick for the Honda Classic

Charley Hoffman (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 48.7, GPFP: 62.34 Salary: $7,300)

It’s been a long time since Charley Hoffman had anything truly positive to shout about on the golf course.

But things appear to be on the up for the veteran, with his ball-striking leading the way and, at the Phoenix Open, a first strokes gained putting performance since way, way back in June.

Historically, Hoffman has performed pretty well in both the U.S. and British Opens, and so he should savour the tough examination expected at PGA National.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 53rd
• Scrambling – 67th
• SG: Approach – 72nd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Honda Classic

Peter Malnati (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 49.9, GPFP: 39.93 Salary: $7,100)

In every event he’s played since the start of 2023, Peter Malnati has thrived in at least one department.

He was on fire from tee-to-green at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines, finishing T4 and T20 respectively, while his short game was on point in a run to T20 at the Genesis last week.

If Malnati can put all the pieces together in one week, he could well go on and compete manfully for a trophy or two – his neat-and-tidy play certainly suits the test provided by PGA National.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 23rd
• Approaches from 150-175 yards – 36th
• Scrambling – 88th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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