Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions Fantasy Preview
Happy New Year!
With the final strains of Auld Lang Syne still hanging in the air, golf returns with a bang at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
It’s all go from here, with the PGA TOUR now barely pausing for breath right up until the conclusion of the 2022-23 season in August. So there’s ample opportunities for daily fantasy lovers to score some big wins this year. That, as ever, is the goal with our weekly drafts and picks.
Ironically, the Tournament of Champions is perhaps not ideal for DFS golf given that the field only contains 39 players, but we can ease our way back into the action without the Friday cut sweats….and in the beautiful surroundings of Hawaii, no less!
Last Event’s Fantasy Results
We drafted Viktor Hovland for this tournament last year, and a salary of $9,900 – plus sportsbook odds of 11/1 – reveal how higher his stock was then than it is now.
But there have been better signs for the Norwegian of late, and T10 at the Mayakoba Championship – in conditions not all too dissimilar to those expected in the Bahamas – is a handy warm-up for his title defense.
According to the OWGR, just some of Hovland’s best efforts have come here, at Mayakoba (twice) and in the 2022 British Open (T4), so we can have plenty of confidence in his abilities in the wind.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Field
Maybe this event should be renamed the Tournament of Mostly Champions.
We have stacks of players heading to Maui that did get their hands on silverware during 2022, from Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm to Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. Indeed, Rory McIlroy is the only member of the OWGR top-10 (that plays on the PGA TOUR) not to be heading to Hawaii.
But the field is supplemented by the top 30 from last season’s FedEx Cup race that didn’t win a tournament, so the likes of Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young have scored invites too.
Throw into the mix the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau and U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick, plus the returning from injury of Will Zalatoris, and you have the recipe for a fantastic way to start the new golfing year.
This Week’s Course Preview
Resort golf serves up connotations of fun in the sun, and that’s exactly what the players can expect this week at the Kapalua Resort in Maui.
That’s because the Plantation Course features some of the widest fairways on the PGA TOUR, huge green complexes and the most bizarre routing – with just three Par 3s but four Par 5s and eleven Par 4s, this is one of the few Par 73 tracks used at the top-level of golf.
Even though the Plantation Course measures the best part of 7,500 yards, it should be noted that the sizable elevation changes mean that many of the holes play much shorter – you may recall a tee shot from Dustin Johnson at the 12th hole here back in 2018 that ended up a tap-in from the hole some 430 yards away.
The Bermuda greens run at a sluggish 10.5 on the stimp, and while these feature some contours and plateaus they are still as pure as you like – Cameron Smith won with a score of -34 here last year, so it’s fair to say there are few gremlins on these greens.
The wind is the only obstacle the players have to overcome this week, and if that is benign then the Plantation Course will yield birdies at a rate unlike any other PGA TOUR layout.
Weather Forecast for Maui, HI
Largely rain-free at this time of year, the Plantation Course will play fast and dry – although not to a level that the best players in the world aren’t comfortable with.
It’s going to be nice and warm – temperatures of around 77˚F are expected across all four days of the tournament, and so the only factor to consider is the breeze.
At local level, that might feel stiffer than the 10-13mph range that the forecast is predicting, but at the same time it’s far from a gale either.
Last Year’s Results from the Sentry Tournament of Champions
The new year got off to a record-breaking start at the Tournament of Champions in 2022.
Cameron Smith broke the record for the lowest winning total in PGA TOUR history at -34, and Jon Rahm in second tied that previous mark at -33. Between them, they made a staggering 63 birdies and four eagles across the week.
There were other extraordinary performances too. Matt Jones opened up his tournament with a round of 70, and yet by the end of Sunday he was in solo third with a score of -32 – his weekend went rather swimmingly at 62-61.
For context, Jason Kokrak – who finished dead last – still made 16 birdies and an eagle to finish on -7….it’s fair to say that the Plantation Course yielded.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sentry Tournament of Champions this Week
Let’s get 2023 off to a solid start, shall we, by playing a mix of high risk-high reward contests and those that we might expect a profitable return from more often than not.
- PGA $600k Season Tee Off: In for a penny, in for a pound with this unique contest that will pay a handsome $200k to the winner. It’s $20 per entry (150 max), with just over 35,000 teams duking it out for the jackpot.
- PGA $10k Mulligan: If the Season Tee Off is the DFS equivalent of a lottery ticket, this Mulligan contest should be a more reliable source of ROI. You can play three lineups at $8 apiece, with $10,000 in total prizes to play for including a jackpot of $1,000.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes
Players that can keep their ball under control despite the wind have carte blanche to seemingly break par at will at the Plantation Course.
So quality in the breeze really is the main criteria for success in the Tournament of Champions, because there is little in the way of hazards to overcome from tee to green.
We would prefer those with quality on approach – hitting your ball close regularly is kind of a good idea in this sport, but in truth this is resort golf at a friendly layout and so putting will likely be the difference-maker.
In last year’s edition, Smith, Rahm and Jones ranked first, fifth and second respectively for SG: Putting, and clearly you aren’t going to convert the avalanche of birdies and eagles needed to win this event unless you have a good week on the greens.
And that’s about it. You’ll need to be on the right side of the putting variance to enjoy success with your lineups this week, but at least by drafting the right calibre of player you will give yourself the best possible chance of the most pleasing results.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Top Tier Pick #1
Jon Rahm (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 114.2, GPFP: 141.61 Salary: $10,000)
It’s scarcely believable that you can shoot a score of -33 and still not win a PGA TOUR event!
Taking the positives out of the week, Jon Rahm will at least know that he cracked the Plantation Course in 2022, as he had in four consecutive top-10 finishes here in the years prior (including T2 in 2018).
The Spaniard closed out 2022 in sublime form, with four consecutive top-five finishes in classic strokeplay events that yielded a pair of wins on the DP World Tour.
A proven wind player who seemingly putts well everywhere he goes, Rahm evidently has what it takes to prevail in Hawaii this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 2nd
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 3rd
- Greens in Regulation – 8th
Top Tier Pick #2
Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 137.5, GPFP: 156.75 Salary: $9,700)
Another who we simply cannot afford to miss out on this week is Patrick Cantlay.
There are those who will tell you he isn’t as strong on Bermuda greens as other surfaces, but here’s a guy that has gained strokes on the field putting in nine of his last ten outings – any notion that he is anything less than elite, on any grasses, is nonsensical.
His tee-to-green game isn’t too shabby either, with +1.64 and +1.11 strokes gained on approach at the BMW Championship, which he won, and the TOUR Championship respectively.
Bizarrely, TPC Summerlin – home of the Shriners Children’s Open – is something of an indicator for success at Kapalua with its elevation changes, breezes and short-range approach play requirements, and Cantlay has a stellar record there….as he does at the Plantation Course, with a formline of 4-13-4.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 1st
- Birdie Average – 1st
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 2nd
Mid-Tier Pick #1
Sungjae Im (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 81.9, GPFP: 86.00 Salary: $8,300)
Sungjae Im seems to play well everywhere these days, but he has a shown a real fondness for the Plantation Course (fifth in 2021, eighth in 2022) and at $8,300 he’s a bargain price given his consistency.
You can be sure that the Korean has been working hard on the driving range, and so he should head to Hawaii in good spirits – you wonder how many others in the field will have shown a similar work ethic?
We’ve mentioned TPC Summerlin as a correlating layout of sorts – Im has won there previously, of course, and his solid all-round game should be enough to get him onto the top page of the leaderboard this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 7th
- Scoring Average – 26th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 27th
Mid-Tier Pick #2
Brian Harman (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 103.9, GPFP: 123.62 Salary: $8,000)
It’s quite possible that anybody that gets a hot hand on the greens this week will go very close to winning – there are so few tee-to-green obstacles, and so it’s worth chancing Brian Harman in that vein.
The left-hander has a reliable putting stroke, and that has powered him to a pair of second-place finishes at the World W ide Technology Championship and RSM Classic to round out 2022.
Although not blessed with the firepower of some in this field, three of the top-five in this event last year (Jones, Morikawa and Daniel Berger) all averaged around 290 yards off the tee, and that suggests that a relative lack of length does not have to be an inhibitor at the Plantation Course.
At least if nothing else, Harman has the form in the bag to shoot low numbers this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 12th
- SG: Approach – 27th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 29th
Low-Tier Pick
Russell Henley (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 64.1, GPFP: 82.07 Salary: $7,700)
It’s hard to imagine a golf course better suited to Russell Henley’s game than Plantation.
He’s solid from tee-to-green, putts well on Bermuda and does not fear playing in the wind, and the fact that he has an excellent record in the Sony Open – including victory there back in 2013 – suggests he enjoys life in Hawaii.
The reason we don’t know if Henley is suited to Plantation as a fact is that he simply doesn’t score an invite to the Tournament of Champions very often – he’s a player that has failed to translate his undoubted talent into wins.
But he scratched that itch at Mayakoba late on in 2022, and who knows perhaps that triumph will provide the spark Henley needs to finally take full advantage of his talent.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 43rd
- Total Driving – 45th
- Birdie Average – 56th
Sleeper Pick for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sahith Theegala (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 77.7, GPFP: 77.67 Salary: $7,300)
It’s testament to Sahith Theegala’s tee-to-green prowess that he made it all the way to the TOUR Championship last season despite a seasonal SG: Putting rank of 118th.
It’s confirmation that an improvement on the greens will take Theegala to all new heights in golf, and it’s telling that he has gained strokes on the field putting in each of his last three starts – the most recent of those was a whopping +2.10 on the greens at the RSM Classic that swept him to a T2 finish.
That’s a hugely exciting development for a player still so young in the game, and given that – all told – Bermuda seems to be his best surface, Theegala is worth a shot at such a lowly salary this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 21st
- SG: Putting – 31st
- SG: Total – 56th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Scott Stallings (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 71.0, GPFP: 90.17 Salary: $6,600)
It’s a strategy as old as time, but when picking golfers at easy, resort-style courses there’s usually one key parameter: back those that can go berserk on the greens.
Scott Stallings can fit the bill. He’s gained strokes on the field putting in seven of his last ten starts, and in the 2021-22 season he ranked 44th for his efforts on the greens.
He’s a veritable birdie machine (he ranked 38th for Birdie Average in 2021-22), and breezy coastal conditions won’t faze a player that has finished third at Pebble Beach, as just one example.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 200-225 yards – 38th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 75th
- Scoring Average – 94th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2021-2022)
Tourneys Played '21 -'22
Season Earnings YTD
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